Cheltenham Festival - Day 4

    Well, after a great start to the week things took a turn for the worse today and I need a winner on Gold Cup day, a day where imo my two strongest bets run.

    Gibralfaro isn't one, and I thought he wasn't running after his poor effort last time out. I'm not confident and I'm not topping up.

    With Desoto County balloted out of the County my one tracker horse to appear at the Festival is Starchitect in the same race. He's bred to enjoy faster ground and his form behind Agrapart in the Betfair Hurdle has been franked a number of teams since, including by Yorkhill in the Neptune. It's a tough race, one of the most competitive of the week, but I always have more confidence in tracker horses than other handicap fancies.

    My ante-post position on Shantou Village looks incredibly strong now. He hated the ground last time out behind Yanworth and whilst it's hard to be overly confident in such a large field conditions event I came into the week as hopeful and buzzy about this horse as I was about Altior. I expect a huge run - and I have covered on Barter's Hill via a free bet.

    Onto the Gold Cup. I've fantasised about Don Poli winning this since he drifted to a backable price for the race after his poor run at the Punchestown Festival last April. He's a lazy horse who jumps as well as Vautour and stays all day. He loves the track and he won't get dangerously outpaced, remember he won a competitive handicap hurdle over 2m4 as a novice. I think he's bombproof tomorrow - Djakadam I fear, Cue Card a little less so, Don Cossack not at all. I have a good price ante-post and he makes my Festival a great one if he wins.

Triumph Hurdle:
Gibralfaro £10w @ 175/10 (lost)

County Hurdle:
Starchitect £35w @ 145/10 (lost)

Albert Bartlett:
Shantou Village £35w @ 102/10 and £10 @ 10/1 any race (pu)
Barter's Hill £25fb @ 4/1 via Yanworth (lost)

Gold Cup:

Don Poli £70w @ 774/100 (3rd)
Vautour  NR £10

Holywell NR £5

£5ew Double:
(CH/County) Nichols Canyon(won)Starchitect(lost) @ 9/2 & 16/1

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Cheltenham Festival - Day 3

    I'm not the most sentimental of punters, backing winners and winning money is why I'm involved in following the sport of Horse Racing. I lost a fair chunk on the Queen Mother yesterday, I got the race completely wrong - but I was shouting Sprinter Sacre home from the second last as my two selections fell out the back of my television. It was a great race and it was fantastic to see the horse win at the Festival again.

    I have almost a full book of bets today. I mentioned the action I took with Sizing John when it became apparent that he was going for the Arkle and at that time Killultagh Vic was a short price for the JLT. I was completely against the horse at his cramped odds and added Bristol De Mai, a bold jumping front runner with lots of scope. He's won again since I took 12/1 about him and I have topped up since. I feel in two minds about this race, on the one hand I worry about the drying ground for Bristol De Mai and his lack of course form - but on the other I don't really rate any of the opposition. I'll sit tight and hope for the best, no cover bet.

    The Ryanair is an absolute mess now. I got involved in the race ante-post in the hope that Vautour would go for the Gold Cup. It's connections perogative to run where they like but Mr Ricci is too fond of talking and shouldn't have said it was Gold Cup or stay at home for the horse. He'll probably win and my position on the race is shite now. Let's get on with the next race.

    Thistlecrack looks bombproof for the World Hurdle and I think he'll win, my interest in the race now is in the without market where I took 4s about Cole Harden a week or so ago. He's the defending champ and he'll love underfoot conditions - I'm very hopeful he'll chase the favourite home. I also have Whisper, actually backed him for the race way back in July. Things haven't gone his way this season with wide margin defeats on soft ground and whilst his price is a bit shorter than the one I took in the summer I can't see him winning. He hasn't had a good prep and so is unlikely to fair better than he did in 2015.

    Finally I have two against the field in the Plate. Back at the turn of the year when the ground was heavy everywhere John's Spirit was getting beat in competitive handicaps and was a tumbling down the ratings. With better ground certain at the Festival and a nice mark assured I sneaked a small bet on him at 25s for the Plate back at the turn of the year and he's 7/1 and probably a bit too short for the race now. Most of his winning form at the track is on the old course but he ran a smasher in the Ryanair last year and if the Paddy Power he won had been on this new course he still would have won. Fingal Bay is an old favourite of mine and like John's Spirit he's a handicapper best when underfoot conditions are on the quick side. He has his optimum conditions today and if he's in the same form as he was for the Hennessy when he just didn't see the race out on soft ground he's sure to go close.

JLT Novices' Chase

Bristol De Mai £40w @ 74/10 (2nd)

Sizing John NR £25

Ryanair Chase:

Champagne West £5w @ 54/1 (lost)

Valseur Lido £25w @ 13/1 (lost)

Vibrato Valtat £15w @ 16/1 and £10ew @ 12/1 (fell)

Apache Stronghold NR £18

World Hurdle:

Whisper £15w @ 13/1 (lost)

Cole Harden £30w @ 4/1 (w/o Thistlecrack) (lost)

Brown Advisory Plate:

John's Spirit £20w @ 13/1 (pu)

Fingal Bay £20w @ 175/10 (pu)

£5ew Doubles:

(Supreme/WH) Buveur D'Air(3rd)Cole Harden(lost)@ 7/1 and 8/1

(Arkle(w/o Douvan)/Ryanair) Sizing John(won)Road to Riches(3rd)@ 7/2

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Cheltenham Festival - Day 2

    I thoroughly enjoyed the opening day of the Festival yesterday and feel chilled and happy this morning (despite a dental appointment at noon for an tooth extraction.)

    This is my quietest day and have no really strong bets if I'm honest. In the opener one has to take advantage of SkyBet's money back as a free bet concession and Yanworth looks bombproof to me, in fact 6/4 is a touch of value - I think it's better than 50/50 that he wins.

    The Queen Mother Champion Chase looks more open than the better suggests. Un De Sceaux looks the likeliest winner but if anything the ground is faster now than it was in his Arkle last season and that makes him vulnerable and one to take on at his price. I haven't done that with Sire De Grugy of course having backed him in the without market but my feelings here is that this horse has had a decent season and his form ties with Sprinter Sacre this season suggests the price diff' between the two is excessive. Felix Yonger has been a favourite of mine for years buthe's always been under the radar for the Mullins charge...he was 16/1 when second to Simonsig in the Neptune and ran in the wrong race as a novice chaser. I've always felt two miles on decent ground were his optimum conditions and he didn't stay when fourth in Taquin DeSeuil's Jewson. I took 33s NRNB back in the late Autumn, just as I did twelve months back when Willie didn't bring him over (a mistake as Champagne Fever was bitten by Un Atout on the way over.) There were rumours he was headed to the Ryanair at the weekend but with Vautour going for that race tomorrow (when I'll post my thoughts on that issue) he finally gets his chance in the Champion Chase. He has strong place claims and even at 16s now makes far more appeal than the likes of Special Tiara (who doesn't act on the track) and Dodging Bullets (who has no worthwhile form this season.)

    My other bet is an obvious one for me. My decision to follow the Nick Williams stable back in 2008 or 09 has been the best one I've ever made over the jumps but his record at the Festival isn't a good one. I think this is because he sources his young horses from France and the good one mostly seem to like flat tracks and soft going. Agrapart and Tea for Two have had fine fine seasons but neither ever came into my mind for the Festival but Coo Star Sivola has form at the track and on decent ground so is worth a go a 20s plus with five places in a typically competitive Fred Winter.


Neptune:
Shantou Village NR £10
Yanworth £25w @ 6/4 mbs (2nd)

RSA:
Native River NR £5

Champion Chase:
Felix Yonger £20ew @ 33/1 (pu)
Sire De Grugy £20ew @ 15/2 (w/o Un De Sceaux) (lost)


Fred Winter:
Coo Star Sivola £5w @ 30/1 and £10ew @ 20/1 (5pl) (3rd)

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Cheltenham Festival - Day 1

    I mentioned in my previous entry how confident I feel this week, I have my best portfolio for years and I'll put it out there right now, I want and expect at least four winners.

    I like Altior as much as any horse I've backed this week but the Supreme is a horrible race for me, I've never backed the winner. A few years ago that alone would be enough for me to reduce stakes but actually it's not a race I've gotten involved in too often in the past given that most of the time we have no past Festival form to go on but Altior is just a horse I fell for after his win at Ascot in October. I like the way he gutted out a win that day, I backed him next time against Maputo and he was so impressive after a hitting a flat spot at Kempton Christmas time. Obviously Min might be another Douvan or Vautour but I've taken that chance on the Henderson horse.

    Sizing John was my initial fancy for the JLT on Thursday. He was always going to be a better chaser than hurdler, ran a great race behind Douvan last year and I snaffled double figures about him at the turn of the year. When rumours started on Twitter that connections preferred the Arkle I was annoyed but lucked out in seeing 10/1 for him in the without Douvan market on a slow-reacting high street bookmakers site. I took that price, filled up at 6s and 7s in the same market on Betfair and have topped up since. Only seven horses go to post and although I respect Vaniteux he didn't look that safe a jumper to me last time out at Doncaster and I rate this bet as possibly my nap of the week.

    The Champion Hurdle looks wide open and although I like Nichols Canyon a lot for the race I would prefer the horse if he was in a different yard. Mullins has a clear owner hierarchy and Wylie seems at the bottom of it. Nichols Canyon win at Leopardstown at the end of December from Identity Thief on really soft ground didn't earn him much time off and imo he was in the red when making a mistake at the second last trying to keep tabs on Faugheen in the Irish Champion. The stable prefer Annie Power which naturally is not ideal. I hope they're wrong.

    Finally Vicente is worth a look in the four miler. There was a lot to like about his win in a nice Novice Chase here at the Paddy Power meeting in November on similar ground that he'll encounter tomorrow. Two or three good types were in behind or didn't compete that day and although he wasn't in the same form next time out the ground was too soft for him that day. 

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Supreme Novices' Hurdle:

Altior £30w @ 66/10 and £25w @ 4/1 (won)

Arkle Trophy:

Sizing John £10ew @ 10/1 and £40w @ 44/10 (w/o Douvan) (won)

Ultima Handicap Chase:
Fingal Bay NR £20

Champion Hurdle:

Peace and Co £30w @ 146/10 (lost)

Nichols Canyon £10ew @ 13/2 and £40w @ 52/10 (3rd)

National Hunt Chase:

Vicente £10w @ 20/1 and £10ew @ 16/1 (lost)

£5ew Doubles:

(Supreme/CH) Buveur D'Air(3rd)Nichols Canyon(3rd) @ 8/1 and 5/1

(Supreme/WH) Buveur D'Air(3rd)Cole Harden @ 7/1 and 8/1

(Arkle(w/o Douvan)/Ryanair) Sizing John(won)Road to Riches @ 7/2

(CH/County) Nichols Canyon(3rd)Starchitect @ 9/2 and 16/1

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Cheltenham..almost

    We're nearly there and at this stage I'm the happiest I've been about my portfolio since that magical year I was all in on Sprinter Sacre for the Arkle. I've not been hit too hard with non-runners and I seem to have around nine or ten decent chances at a nice win figure - looking back at my past Festivals I couldn't find more than eight.

    So yeah, confidence is high. I've had some chronic weeks in recent years, 2015 with just the one winner and 2013 where I lost nearly a monkey in non-runners - and I kind of want to channel that energy of past profitable festivals with a steady stream of winners (my best were 2011 and 2005 when I punted four in each) so I feel in that positive mental zone. Naturally an early winner will help maintain that and I like my positions a lot on Tuesday, positions I will detail on Monday evening.

 

Supreme Novices'
Altior £30w @ 66/10 and £25w @ 4/1 mbs

Arkle:
Sizing John £10ew @ 10/1, £20w @ 54/10,
£20w @ 7/2 NRNB (all w/o Douvan)

Ultima Handicap Chase:
Fingal Bay £10ew @ 20/1

Champion Hurdle:

Peace and Co £30w @ 146/10
Nichols Canyon £10ew @ 13/2 and £40w @ 51/10 both NRNB

NH Chase:
Vicente £10w @ 20/1 NRNB

Neptune:
Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

RSA:
Native River £5w @ 28/1

Champion Chase:
Felix Yonger £20ew @ 33/1 NRNB
Sire De Grugy £10ew @ 8/1 (w/o Un De Sceaux)
Sire De Grugy £10ew @ 7/1 (w/o Un De Sceaux) NRNB

Fred Winter:
Coo Star Sivola £5w @ 30/1

JLT Novices' Chase:
Sizing John £25w @ 136/10
Bristol De Mai £40w @ 74/10

World Hurdle:

Whisper £15w @ 13/1
Windsor Park £20w @ 14/1 NRNB
Cole Harden £15w @ 4/1 (w/o Thistlecrack)

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold NR £18
Champagne West £5w @ 54/1
Valseur Lido £25w @ 13/1 NRNB
Vibrato Valtat £15w @ 16/1 and £10ew @ 12/1 both NRNB

Brown Advisory Plate:
John's Spirit £10w @ 195/10
Fingal Bay £10w @ 25/1

Triumph Hurdle:
Gibralfaro £10w @ 175/10

County Hurdle:
Desoto County £10w @ 16/1
Starchitect £20w @ 15/1 NRNB

Albert Bartlett:
Shantou Village £25w @ 116/10 and £10w @ 7/1 NRNB

Gold Cup:

Don Poli £30w @ 94/10 and £40w @ 13/2 NRNB
Vautour £10w @ 12/1 and £10w @ 8/1 NRNB

Holywell NR £5

Any Race:
Shantou Village £10w @ 10/1

Doubles (£5ew)

(Supreme/CH) Buveur D'Air/Nichols Canyon @ 8/1 & 5/1

(Arkle(w/o Douvan)/Ryanair) Sizing John/Road to Riches @ 7/2 NRNB

(CH/County) Nichols Canyon/Starchitect @ 9/2 and 16/1 NRNB

(Ryanair/County) Road to Riches/Desoto County @ 6/1 & 14/1

(WH(w/o Thistlecrack)/County Cole Harden/Desoto County @ 4/1 and 10/1

(Supreme/WH) Buveur D'Air/Cole Harden @ 7/1 and 8/1 NRNB