Ascot & Haydock - 20th Feb

    In my entry earlier in the week I mentioned my caution with regard to fancying Vibrato Valtat for the Ascot Chase this afternoon. Sure enough his trainer prefers tackling the race with just Silviniaco Conti and VV heads straight to the Festival (I got that info from the owner's son who responded to my mini rant on Twitter.) Anyway, I can't have the favourite nor Dynaste in this race - I think they are both on a steep decline, and at the odds prefer the Henderson pair Triolo D'Alene and Ma Filleule. They wouldn't be my most confident of selections but the race has that nice betting angle with the market skewered in favour of the two old timers. Triolo D'Alene is headed for the Grand National, where he would be of interest off 11st, and he strikes me as an underrated horse. Ma Filleule ran well in this last year and nothing in this year's renewal has the upward profile Balder Succes did (RIP) at that time.

   So, both selections above are fairly tentative - Trio has the Nash as his main target and Ma F doesn't win that often against the boys, and I've put them both in doubles with my other tentative selection today - Deputy Dan in the Rendlesham at Haydock. Now, I have a single on this horse also, but it's gone a bit wrong - last night he was trading at 6/1 with Boylesports with a handy concession...money back as a free bet if your selection is second to the SP Fav. I assumed that Reve De Sivola would be this favourite, he strikes as the most likely winner of the race, and kind of holds Deputy Dan on Long Walk form - but the market now has One Track Mind as fav. I don't get that at all. Anyway, Deputy Dan ran well at Ascot and trip and ground will suit today. Of course he shouldn't really beat Reve De Sivola getting just 8lbs for a 12 length beat up, but I don't trust the Nick Williams horse today, he's 11 years old, was poor last time out at Haydock over fances and doesn't really show his best anywhere apart from Ascot. The rest of the field looks beatable to me and although the concession bit of my bet has gone tits up I have a nice bit of value.

Rendlesham Hurdle:

Deputy Dan £20w @ 6/1 (lost)

Rendlesham/Ascot Chase:

Deputy Dan/Triolo D'Alene £10d @ 5/1 and 7/1

Deputy Dan/Ma Filleule £10d @ 5/1 and 8/1

Vibrato Valtat NR £10

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