Cheltenham - 1st Jan

    Top Notch has been a bit of a nearly horse this season but tomorrow's Relkeel hurdle over two and a half miles looks tailor made for him as he's always looked a horse who'd appreciate further than the minimum trip. Add to that the weight he gets off Whisper and Cole Harden and the form boosts he's received over the holiday period from Hargam and Identity Thief and I can only conclude that 5/2 is a steal. Simple as that really.

    It's no surprise I've been thinking of backing Aubusson in the Dipper earlier on in the card but he'll need to improve a lot over what he achieved at Uttoxeter on his chasing bow and Three Musketeers looks a formidable opponent so I'm leaving him alone.

Relkeel Hurdle:

Top Notch £50w @ 5/2 (lost)

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Leopardstown - 28th Dec

    Willie Mullins is a fantastic trainer but I feel some his non Ricci owners have to sort of take a backseat with their horses, something we see today with Arctic Fire asked to tackle three miles on deep ground despite there being a perfectly good race for him over his best trip tomorrow. I'm not too bothered though as his presence at the head of the market for the Christmas Hurdle in a couple of hours has made it a good race to get involved in and 4/1 about Martello Tower is just too big. Last season's Albert Bartlett winner has optimum conditions today and although it's a slight negative that this is his first run of the season I think that the price is enough of a compensation. With any sort of pipe opener under his belt he'd be by far the most likely winner of this so 4s is well worth snapping up. Arctic Fire isn't his only worthwhile rival and Alpha Does Obeaux is well respected but this horse looks more a chaser to me, he's not that economical at his flights, and ultimately it comes down to how ready the selection is for this test. This is a Grade 1 contest so you would think his trainer would have him close to 100%. That's the logic anyway.

Christmas Hurdle:
Martello Tower £40w @ 4/1 (lost)

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Kempton - 27th Dec

    Despite a losing day overall yesterday I thoroughly enjoyed the racing and Tea for Two's win was so heart warming. Following a stable does make a winner, especially in a big race, all the sweeter and the sky is the limit for this horse. As for the King George, Vautour ran an ungodly race to go so close despite losing ground by jumping to the left at a lot of his fences and if he were mine I'd be going for gold with him as Cheltenham will suit him much more and he will probably have his ground as well.

    Just the one bet today. Sprinter Sacre should win the Desert Orchid but can we say for sure he's back? I kind of want to ask that question at 8/13 and with Sire De Grugy being if anything even less trustworthy I reckon Vibrato Valtat is worth a small play at 8/1. He finished legless in third at Sandown behind SDG but he got too far behind that day and had to use up all his energy reserves just to get on terms before the last couple of fences. Special Tiara doesn't go today so I expect lesser pace and the selection should be more in his comfort zone as they approach the business end of the race. To win he needs the big two to both run below form but given their overall profiles I think that's less than an 8/1 shot.

Desert Orchid Chase:
Vibrato Valtat £30w @ 8/1 (lost)

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Kempton & Leopardstown - 26th Dec

    Today's racing is the highlight of my and I suspect a lot of other people's Christmas. The King George has attracted a monster field, it's the best renewal I can remember. Looking at the declared lineup I kind of feel the race has been analysed to death, there isn't a whole lot of value in the prices now, and I'm happy enough with double figures about the two time defending champ. Hand on heart I don't really think Silviniaco Conti will win but he's slightly overpriced and I do think we'll see a completely different performance today compared to his rather tired effort at Haydock. Don Cossack is a worthy favourite and worth a cover bet.

    As a follower of his stable it's no surprise I'm in Tea for Two's camp in the Feltham. He jumped and travelled superbly at Exeter earlier this month and although there is a smidgeon of doubt about the three miles today I think this has been somewhat overplayed. Yes, he didn't really stay when tried over the trip in the Fixed Brush race at Haydock but that was a big field competitive handicap run at a decent pace and Lizzie had him up top throughout. He faces just the six rivals today and they won't go as fast. Native River is respected and he did look a chaser of promise last time out at Newbury but Un Temps Pour Tout was ridden without much restraint that day and set the race up for him. I also think Kempton will suit the selection more as well.

    Over in Ireland I have bets in the Juvenile Hurdle and the Grade 1 Novice Chase. In the former we have a fascinating market that has turned upside down since it was opened earlier in the week. Initially the Mullins trained Footpad was around 6/4 with Rashaan put in at 5/2 generally and 11/4 in a place. I took that price as he looks easily the form horse in the race based on his impressive run at Fairyhouse and really he wasn't introduced as a shortie simply because his connections aren't that fashionable. Today though I arrive home from Christmas day spent with the family to discover that Footpad has drifted to 3s and a Gordon Elliot creature having his first run for the stable has been hyped into 7/2 with the likely winner still at 5/2. I like this as a Willie Mullins drifter is always a sign they won't win and Rashaan may be the bet of day.

    Not surprisingly there hasn't been a drift on Douvan later on in the card and although he'll likely be fearsome tough to get beat I like my position in the race having taken 7/1 about Ttebbob and just under that price about Sizing John. The former is a s p e c t a c u l a r jumper of a fence who will be hard to peg back, especially on heavy ground. However I've been bummed on my initial bet. When I placed it the each way terms were 1/5 first three. With only four declared though the layer I placed it with are only paying me two places now, even though my bet was ante post. Now, I'm not that bothered as I'm not an each way punter much of the time, but changing your each way terms in this way is out of order. Yes, layers are unfortunate the way this race has played out with regard to the place terms. If they were offering three places punters like me would be in a terrific position - but equally I'm sure there are players out there who took prices about Kitten Rock and others who have lost their money now, and rightfully so. Bookies need to take the rough with the smooth and this invidious changing of terms that should be set in stone once an ante post position has been taken and confirmed is not a good sign for the future. Anyway, back to the race. Ttebbob is 4s now and I have topped up at that and also put in an IR lay bet at 5/2 as he's sure to trade shorter at some point given his running style. I don't fancy Sizing John quite as much given the ground but 6/1 is fair and I've topped up at that price.

    To anyone reading this good luck with your bets today and enjoy the rest of the holiday period.

Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle:
Rashaan £40w @ 265/100 (lost)

Kauto Star Novices' Chase:
Tea for Two £40 @ 5/2 (won)

Racing Post Novice Chase:
Ttebbob £10ew @ 7/1, £40w @ 4/1 (fell)
Sizing John £25w @ 632/100 (2nd)

King George VI Chase:
Silviniaco Conti £25w @ 114/10 (pu)
Don Cossack £20w @ 5/2 (fell)

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Christmas Racing

    I gave myself a self fist bump today as I managed to avoid betting Houblon Des Obeaux in the big handicap chase at Ascot today. He was most disappointing when I was on in the Hennessy and had been dropped 6lbs by the assessor since that run - so with a 5lb claimer on today he was effectively 11lbs lower in the handicap. My resolve to avoid these type races remained strong though so I feel I won money today even though I had no bet.

    The racing over Christmas is mouth watering this season with the King George narrowly being the highlight. I'm not overly confident with my position on Silviniaco Conti given the standard of some of the opposition and the poorish form of the stable, but I have a big price about him and have covered on Don Cossack who looks far and away the biggest danger. I don't necessarily think this horse is the best chaser on the planet, but his form away from Cheltenham reads very well even if some of the events he won were a bit soft and he just appeals more than Cue Card and Vautour who both are better horses going left handed.

    I said the King George was narrowly the highlight of the holiday period action and it's run close by the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown on the same day. Douvan, Sizing John, Kitten Rock and Ttebob are all set to line-up and if they all make it we are in for a spectacular race. The former is naturally the market leader but 4/7 is incredibly short and I have to take him on. Yes he jumped perfectly well on his chase debut but Ttebob will go a fearsome pace here putting all his rivals jumping under maximum pressure and so I would rather have that horse and Sizing John (both with more experience over the larger obstacles) in my camp at decent odds than an odds-on shot running for connections who have had shorties turned over twice in this race the last two years. I've watched a lot of novices this season and the three that stand out from a jumping standpoint are No More Heroes, Vaniteux and Ttebob. Vaniteux is out at Christmas as well but is odds-on, Ttebob is 7s. Nice.

King George:

Silviniaco Conti £25w @ 114/10

Don Cossack £20w @ 5/2

Racing Post Novice Chase:

Ttebbob £10ew @ 7/1

Sizing John £10w @ 68/10

Ante-Post

    Today's card at Cheltenham is interesting but not a betting one for me. If I had to have a go in the Caspian I would chance Champagne West who I backed a few times in Novice chases last year. As I've wrote on here though I'm trying to avoid jumps handicaps unless I have a tracker in one. 

    Naturally I'm hoping Peace and Co opens his account for the season in the International and I'm confident he will. His stock has risen in the Champion Hurdle market because of Faugheen's defeat a month or so ago but he'll still need to improve 10lbs on his form from last season.

    SkyBet went NRNB yesterday on the four championship races and I was very happy to see Don Poli at a mouth watering 7/1 for the Gold Cup. I was very pleased with his pipe opener at Aintree and chances are he'll be my biggest bet in March. Before that win the other week he was trading at 12 and 13 on Betfair for whatever reason and I snaffled some of that up. Djakadam scares me more than any of his other rivals and I'll probably end up covering on him. The one bet I regret at this stage is my premature taking of 16s about Shantou Village for the Neptune given his trainer's comments about stepping up in trip but I've nullified that mistake slightly by taking 10/1 about him winning any race at the Festival. Fingers crossed we see Apache Stronghold before the turn of the year (he's had a slight setback according to Noel Meade) and although Whisper was disappointing at Newbury on Hennessy day he's a spring/good ground animal and I still like him for the World Hurdle.

King George:

Silviniaco Conti £20w @ 12/1

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Champion Hurdle:

Peace and Co £25w @ 122/10

Neptune:
Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

World Hurdle:

Whisper £15w @ 13/1

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £14w @ 31/1

Gold Cup:

Don Poli £30w @ 94/10 and £15w @ 7/1 NRNB

Holywell £5w @ 43/1

Any Race:
Shantou Village £10w @ 10/1

Uttoxeter - 8th Dec

    I mentioned the presence of Abracadabra Sivola in my tracker last Friday and he appeals as a decent enough bet in the Novices' Handicap Chase at Uttoxeter tomorrow. He didn't jump well at all last time out at Newbury but that was a fiercely competitive race over a course with some of the stiffest fences a chaser can be asked to clear and this test tomorrow is notably easier from all angles - field size, pace and the stiffness of the obstacles. The most noteworthy piece of form in his locker is that second to Native River at Exeter where he looked the likeliest winner until after the last, but I think it unwise to take that form too literally. Native River was less suited by the way that race was run and stepped up markedly when winning again a week or so later. That said the selection has scope off his current mark and has a handicap in him - although I would prefer more exposed rivals if I'm honest.

Douglas Family Novices' Limited Handicap Chase:
Abracadabra Sivola £40w @ 6/1 (lost)

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Exeter - 4th Dec

    I'm kind of satisfied with how my jumps season has gone thus far but my profit would be a lot better if it wasn't for getting sucked into handicaps. On the flat I only back horses in those type races who have gone into my tracker at some point, whereas in the winter I can't seem to resist getting suckered into analysing the big events and getting involved. That's something that will change from now on - I'll be employing the same methods that I use on the level. I have a couple of tracker jumpers already and I'll just stick with those. Abracadabra Sivola is one of those animals and I resisted backing him last week at Newbury as the fences there are quite formidable but he's well handicapped judging by his run behind Native River the time before that. I expect Tea For Two to take to fences with more aplomb than his stable companion, he jumped the fixed brush obstacles at Haydock like he was gagging for them the other week and I make him a decent bet in the novice chase at Exeter this afternoon. I was all over the horse at Haydock and was very disappointed with his effort but I think the combination of ground, three mile trip and the way he was ridden (prominant in a strongly run race) meant he just ran out of stamina. Trip and ground are ok today and I expect a big run. As for the opposition, Calipto is feared and brings a decent level of form to the race but he carries a penalty and he's mainly been campaigned over two miles and on better ground. Golden Doyen is a horse I like but he's looked a sketchy jumper to say the least so far in his chasing career.

Harry Dutfield Memorial Novices' Chase:
Tea For Two £40w @ 100/30 (won)

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