29/11/2015

Fairyhouse - 29th Nov

    Gotta admit yesterday hurt. I was so confident about Top Notch for the Fighting Fifth and the only reason I don't go in heavier was the non-runner loss on Hargam in the same race. That said I tend to be a level stakes punter when it comes to conditions races as I've found through the years that oftentimes my strongest fancies lose whilst ones I'm not so sure about win. I'm ok with that in general but getting a race pretty much spot on in terms of being against the front two in the market but still having the money burgled is frustrating. Sunday is a different day though and this time I'll be cheering on those pesky Gigginstown colours. The Drinmore is one of my favourite jumps races even though the one time I've been to Fairyhouse was the year the meeting was abandoned after the Royal Bond because of high winds. This year's renewal looks well up to scratch with four or five really nice prospects taking it in and after re-watching some of the participants most recent races I think the prices are a bit off. Layers tend to frame markets based around who most punters want to back and you can't blame them for that, but most punters aren't that disciplined or form inclined and tend to go for hype. No More Heroes is a serious looking prospect and was fine first time out over the larger obstacles but I struggle to see him as a true 11/8 shot in such a good field. I think the claims of Free Expression, Monksland and Outlander are pretty much just as valid and so I've backed the latter simplyc because he's the largest price of the quartet. Yes he was slightly fortunate in beating Free Expression at Punchestown given how that horse was hampered but it's far from certain a reversal will take place here, I think it's 50/50 in all honesty, and so the price differential between the two (4/1-11/2) is a bit out of line. The ground at Fairyhouse will be softer than it was for that race and that will suit the selection and whilst I wouldn't call him an each way bet to nothing (it's not even a four horse contest with Shantou Flyer holding possible place claims) he looks overpriced and the firm holding those odds are offering a money back special on the race (free bet if second.)

Drinmore Novice Chase:
Outlander £20ew @ 11/2 (NR)

28/11/2015

Newbury and Newcastle - 28th Nov

    I've already posted on my liking for Houblon Des Obeaux's chances in today's Hennessy and I'm happy the ground has come right for him after he was disappointing on good going at Ascot first time out - my 20/1 ante-post has been topped up this morning. It's a shame Coneygree doesn't run but Saphir Du Rheu does bring that bit of class to the race at the head of the weights and he's to be feared obviously. He's trading at around 4/1 this morning and if memory serves I think Denman was a similar price eight years ago. The Tank won his first Hennessy off 161 and SDR is rated 163 which sort of illustrates the task he faces. I wouldn't back the horse but he's far from the worst value in the race given that Smad Place (won't stay) and Bob's Worth (gone at the game) are single figures also. My selection is on a similar mark to last year and will relish conditions and whilst he's value this race normally falls to a second season chaser and I just have to hope there isn't another Many Clouds in the line-up.

    My other bet today is on Top Notch in the Fighting Fifth. I ballsed up big-time last weekend when backing Hargam for this. I expected the race would cut up badly - and I even put store by the BBC weather forecast for the Newcastle area for the week, they predicted a dry week!! Hargam doesn't go of course but his stable companion loves a bit of cut and 5/1 is just too big. He has excellent claims of reversing form with Irving from last week given that that was his first run of the season and Nicholls charge looks vulnerable today - he's been very busy in recent weeks. Whilst I sort of respect the market leader Wicklow Brave he was hard fit from the flat when finishing respectably enough behind Nichols Canyon and Faugheen in the Morgiana and was flattered mightily. He's well worth taking on at his price.


Fighting Fifth Hurdle:
Hargam £15 NR
Top Notch £40w @ 5/1 (2nd)

Hennessy Gold Cup:
Houblon Des Obeaux £10w @ 20/1 and £10ew @ 14/1 (lost)

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25/11/2015

Newbury - 26th Nov

    Newbury's big winter meeting starts tomorrow and the highlight is the Novice Chase at 14:10. I think the three to concentrate are those without penalties and I would make Beast of Burden a narrow favourite for the race so I was happy to see 10/3 available in a couple of places when perusing oddschecker upon returning home from work. He did unseat in his first outing over fences last month at Chepstow, but before that mishap he'd really impressed with his jumping and I think slightly easier ground will help tomorrow. The Pipe horse who heads the market didn't really impress me at Cheltenham ten days or so ago and I slightly suspect he could be a bit tripless. Value at Risk I do like as a potential chaser but I'm happy to oppose him given how hot this race is considering he's not taken a fence in public before. 

Worcester Novices' Chase:
Beast of Burden £40w @ 100/30 (fell)

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22/11/2015

Ante-Post

    I've already posted my thoughts on yesterday's Betfair and Amlin Chase's and how they impacted upon the King George and my thoughts on that market but I also feel the Irving/Top Notch duel was almost as interesting. The latter out jumped the former throughout and just seemed to get out speeded in the long run in to the line (for me Haydock could do with spacing out their obstacles a bit better, I would like to see the last flight somewhat closer to the finish line.) In addition to that Top Notch was having his first run of the season and will come on for the race. Going forward I like all three of Nicky's trio of Triumph horses from last March, I'm involved ante-post on Peace and Co for the Champion Hurdle and I've taken a little bit of 11/2 about Hargam for next Saturday's Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. This race looks like cutting up quite badly and with the weather forecast generally dry for next week in the North East I think his trainer will let Hargam take part. Like Top Notch he needed his first race of the season when he was given a tough task in a handicap at Cheltenham and Arctic Fire it seems to me is the only credible looking opponent at this stage (Peace and Co is reportedly being aimed at the Bula and even if Irving runs he would be one to be against given how busy he's been recently.)

    My other recent bet is also a bit ground dependent but at the other end of the scale. Houblon Des Obeaux is similar to Tea for Two in that he's come down the handicap despite doing nothing much wrong in his recent races. His rating when running Coneygree to 7 lengths giving him a pound in the Denman Chase back in February was 162 - and he runs off 156 in the Hennessy next weekend. Since that run at Newbury he was well beaten in the Gold Cup (besides the front four plenty of good horses were mullared in that race) fell in the Scottish National after a hard season and in a race run on unsuitable ground, and didn't show up first time out at Ascot a three weeks ago (good ground again.) This horse is a high class handicap chaser who needs a good bit of dig and in the hope he gets it I took 20s about him for this year's Hennessy a few days ago. He was second in the race last year off a pound higher mark and although this looks a tougher renewal he's over priced. I think Coneygree and Saphir Du Rheu simply take too much out of the market at present and it's a race I want a couple of double figure priced horses running for me.


Fighting Fifth Hurdle:
Hargam £15w @ 11/2

Hennessy Gold Cup:
Houblon Des Obeaux £10w @ 20/1

King George:
Silviniaco Conti £10w @ 14/1



Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £20w @ 13/1

Neptune:
Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £15w @ 13/1

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £14w @ 31/1

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £20w @ 82/10
Holywell £5w @ 43/1


21/11/2015

King George thoughts

    After a terrific afternoon's racing the market for Boxing Day's great race has had a major shake-up with Vautour hardening as favourite and Cue Card steaming into single figures after his scintillating win at Haydock. I wasn't that impressed with the former though - admittedly he would have needed the run but he jumped out to his left on a number of occasions and with stamina over three miles unproven he must be taken on at his price. I won't be doing that with Cue Card who has failed a number of times at Kempton and I think the layers have over-reacted to Silviniaco Conti's rather tired ending to the Betfair. He looked in terrific condition and jumped best throughout but to my eyes he went just a bit too hard given how soft the ground was. These were tactics that worked to perfection in last year's King George and one can see the logic behind them, last year it made Champagne Fever run with the choke out throughout the race. However Cue Card is a far more experienced chaser and he just kept finding and finding despite the odd clumsy leap. Ultimately one layer went 14/1 about the Nicholls horse immediately after the race and I had to take some of that. The theme of this jumps season so far is the premature writing off of top class chasers and it would be very hasty to do the same with this one, particularly given who handles him.

King George:
Silviniaco Conti £10w @ 14/1

Haydock - 21st Nov

    Having a list of tracker horses or following a trainer means oftentimes one can get in on the ground floor on a price and I took 16s about Tea for Two in today's Fixed Brush event at Haydock when I was perusing the ante-post odds last Saturday evening. Living twenty miles or so from the track I knew the ground would be ok for the horse and of course Nick Williams loves to target the race having won it twice in recent(ish) times. It's easy to make the case for him today - he won the Lanzarote by 16 lengths last January and is only 7lbs higher today. Yes, that race lacked today's depth for sure but it goes without saying that the horse is well handicapped and although I worry slightly about the extra distance today, particularly on ground verging on heavy, against that is the intermediate level of the obstacles which should suit a horse who has a chasers physique. I topped up at 8/1 earlier in the week and although beating the book on a regular basis did me not much good during the flat season, fingers crossed things will be different this winter.

"Fixed Brush" Handicap Hurdle:
Tea For Two £20ew @ 12/1 (lost)

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16/11/2015

Ante-Post

    I don't think I've enjoyed a day's racing as much as yesterday's in quite some time. I had a winner, saw Sprinter Sacre finally look like a proper racehorse again and Faugheen getting beat was the icing on the cake. I still think the latter is the likeliest winner of the Champion Hurdle but he is vulnerable if not allowed to dominate (not that that was the reason he was beaten, he was very burly) and I can see Peace and Co doing him up that hill. I mentioned on Saturday how impressed I was with Shantou Village and whilst I was initially annoyed at my premature bet on him for the Neptune given that I didn't even think about the possibility of him being stepped up in trip I'm happy with the price I have and we'll just have to see if it's a wasted bet or not.

    As a stable follower it was nice to see Coo Star Sivola completely outrun his odds in the Triumph trial that opened Sunday's card and he looks a horse of some promise. Nick lacks a stable star now Reve De Sivola is coming to the end of his career and it's nice to see a good young one coming through. This Saturday is Betfair Chase day at Haydock which features the Fixed Brush race that Nick has won twice in recent years. With that in mind it's a certain bet that he'd have had the race in mind for Tea For Two for a long time (ran in the same prep race that Aubusson took in last season at Chepstow) and living not a million miles away from the track I was happy to see a fair amount of rain in the region as for the horse over the weekend - I took some 16/1 a couple of days back. He's off 141 now which is only half a stone more than the rating he had in the Lanzarote. This race is made for him and he'll probably go off in the 5 or 6/1 region.

Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10ew @ 16/1



Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £20w @ 13/1

Neptune:
Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £10w @ 156/10

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £14w @ 31/1

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £20w @ 82/10
Holywell £5w @ 43/1

15/11/2015

Cheltenham - 15th Nov

    It's become a bit of a cliche that John Ferguson's generally flat bred hurdlers are great at tearing it up on flat tracks again modest opponents and yet despite that Penglai Pavilion was odds-on for Friday's novice hurdle against a couple of promising opponents and when prices opened for today's Supreme trial that opens an excellent card at Cheltenham Maputo was favourite over Altior. Some bets just seem obvious as soon as a list of prices are perused and this is one of them. Henderson's charge had nothing to beat when opening his account for the season at Chepstow last month and I was more impressed at his effort at Ascot later in that month when he and one rival pulled 20 lengths clear of a half decent field of novices. There's one or two well thought of rivals in the race today who I expect to be harder to beat than Maputo (form is all on fast ground) but my bet today is one that didn't require a huge amount of analysis. That 3/1 was just too big and I later topped up at 11/4.

    I've also taken 3/1 about Simply Ned in the Shloer Chase. Sprinter Sacre is suited by the conditions of this race as he receives weight from most of his opponents but he's looked a shadow of the magnificent chaser he was and needs to be opposed at his cramped odds. The selection ran a super race in this last year, an edition that worked out really well, and he's the obvious alternative given Somersby's age and Mr Mole's penalty and lack of form at the track.

Supreme Trial Novices' Hurdle:
Altior £50w @ 285/10 (won) (rule4)

Shloer Chase:
Simply Ned £40w @ 3/1 (lost)

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14/11/2015

Cheltenham - 14th Nov

    My confidence in Johns Spirit for today's big race remains steadfast but I'm worried about the weather forecast. He acts on soft ground and ran a smasher in the race last year but I do think he's better on more decent ground and I'm just hoping the rain isn't as heavy and as prolonged as is forecast. Re-watching last year's renewal Johns Spirit was held up in a relatively slowly run edition and took the lead at the last before being chinned on the line - today's race is sure to be more truly run with a host of front runners in the line-up which should suit him more and hopefully he won't be asked to lead till well after the last jump. I think it's a slightly stronger race this year and I fear Boondooma and King's Palace most of his rivals. I was all over the latter for the RSA last year and whilst I couldn't back him for this at his price given his overall form profile (not proven in big fields and when not allowed to dominate) he's a horse with stacks of talent and isn't easily written off. Boondooma won a hum drum race at the open meeting very impressively, kicking on when challenged after helping set a strong pace over two miles last time out and he could be one of those second season progressive chasers who is well handicapped. The sponsors have Johns Spirit at 14s this morning and I've topped up. My best guess is there will be a younger rival too well handicapped for him to handle today but it's hard to see him out of the frame (five places paid) if he gets round.

    I managed to catch the novice hurdle live yesterday during my lunch break at work and was deeply impressed with Shantou Village. Unfortunately I had to get back to my desk before I saw the trainer's post-race interview and I took some 16s about him for the Neptune without hearing that he was going to be stepped up in trip. This seems premature now with the Albert Bartlett just as likely a Festival target for him.

Paddy Power Gold Cup:
Johns Spirit £30ew @ 13/1(lost)

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12/11/2015

Open Meeting / Ante-Post

    Well, the jumps really kick in tomorrow with the three day open meeting at Cheltenham and whilst it's never been a heavy betting event for me there are plenty of clues for future reference and the action is top notch. I have had one bet in the main feature of the weekend, taking 12/1 about Johns Spirit for the Paddy Power. He won the race two years ago and was only just run out of a repeat last year - he loves the old course and as he will have better ground to aid him than he had twelve months ago he appeals as a sporting each way poke given that he's only a pound higher in the ratings. I'll post more about the race on Saturday.

    I've been quiet on the ante-post front, it's a definite strategy this season to try and avoid having a long list of Festival liabilities and the unfortunate non-runners that come with such a scatter gun policy. I've topped up my position on Peace and Co in the Champion Hurdle simply because Sky Bet did a 24 hour price boost on him.

Paddy Power Gold Cup:
Johns Spirit £15ew @ 12/1

--

Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £20w @ 13/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £10w @ 156/10

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £14w @ 31/1

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £20w @ 82/10
Holywell £5w @ 43/1



06/11/2015

Wincanton - 7th Nov

    Plenty of good races at both Aintree and Wincanton tomorrow and I'm looking forward in particular to seeing Simonsig back in action. From a betting point of view the Elite Hurdle is the only contest that has any sort of angle in it. As hot a trainer as Harry Skelton is I don't see how his charge in this, Zarib, is favourite. Yes he ran ok in a couple of novice/juvenile hurdles last season and on the face of it being beaten 12 lengths by Peace and Co only getting 3lbs seems a decent effort but they went no gallop in that race at Cheltenham  and he was flattered - basically he's half the price he should be and makes the book. I have the race pretty much between the Nicholls pair and with Twiston-Davies choosing All Yours it means bookies are over-pricing Irving. He would have won the race last year but for an unfortunate fall at the last and 5/1 is very fair. I did hum and haw about the each way given his two PU's as well as the F last season and I'm still not wholly convinced I've done the right thing but ultimately if he stays on his feet I don't see more than two horses being progressive or good enough to beat him.

Elite Hurdle:
Irving £25ew @ 5/1 (won)

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02/11/2015

Exeter - 3rd Nov

    I spent much of October re-watching replays of most of the last Chelteham Festival, partly for future form study and partly because the flat was pissing me off. Anyway, one thing that struck me in March as well as last month upon reviewing the race was how much better than the bare result Apache Stronghold was in the JLT. Carberry's tactics on this horse and many other of his mounts is to keep hold of them for as long as possible but with Vautour setting Prestbury Park alight with his jumping Paul obviously felt the need to close upon him before the turn in. He was never going to win the race bar a mistake from the winner and this early move probably cost him a few lengths at the death. The reason I've bought this up is because I think similar comments can be attributed to Vibrato Valtat two days earlier in the Arkle, In trying to keep tabs on Un De Sceaux he probably sacrificed second to God's Own. Those two meet again at Exeter tomorrow in the Haldon Gold Cup and both receive a nice chunk of weight from Sire De Grugy who looks one to take on (was clear favourite at 9/4 when the market opened for the race.) Even though God's Own won the race last season this looks a slightly better edition and he's gone up 5lbs since then. Conditions (small field, softish ground) will really suit Vibrato Valtat who jumped very well for a novice last season. I've taken advantage of the free bet I received for Dynaste finishing second on Saturday.

Haldon Gold Cup:
Vibrato Valtat £25w @ 3/1 & £25fb (via Dynaste) @ 3/1 (won)

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