Hamilton - 1st Sept

    There was a lot to like about Darrell Rivers run on the July course last month, her second attempt at 7f having been campaigned exclusively at 6 prior to her start at Thirsk five days earlier. On both these starts she has been held up before finishing well, placed on both occasions. I backed her at Newmarket as she went into my tracker after Thirsk and it take a couple of nice types to beat her, the winner especially. She runs at Hamilton tomorrow in a fillies only race off bottom weight (a 2lb hike for her run in Suffolk looks fair) and I'd be mad keen on her if it wasn't for the fact that she's been stepped up to an extended mile this time. Hamilton isn't that stiff but there is a steady rise to the line and stamina could well be an issue. Having said that she was motoring in the last half furlong on the July course and 8/1 looks very fair in not as good a race - I've gone each way though with that worry about the trip.

EBF Stallions Scottish Premier Fillies' Handicap:
Darrell Rivers £20ew @ 8/1 (3rd)

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Goodwood 30th Aug / Ante-Post

    I've taken a bit of the 8/1 about Royal Toast in the 3.05 at Goodwood later this afternoon. He's a tentative tracker horse, one I hummed and hawed about including on my list, but I did like the way he finished his race at Sandown just over a week ago after being bustled up virtually from the get go. My first thought was they went too fast that day and he was racing past beaten horses but re-watching it the pace setter(s) really didn't go that quick. He's a biggish horse who won't mind the ground today and ultimately in a 6 runner event he's worth a go at the price.

    Looking ahead to Haydock next week the ground is currently good and the BBC weather forecast doesn't have a lot of rain falling in the area so I'm taking a chance that Limato might line up in the Sprint Cup next Saturday. It looks a very open race and if we can have firm in the going description he'll be very competitive.

Harwoods Group Stakes:

Royal Toast £30w @ 9/1 bog (won)

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Sprint Cup:

Limato £10w @ 12/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Jack Hobbs £15w @ 10/1

--
Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £10w @ 33/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £10w @ 156/10

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £15w @ 86/10

Windsor - 29th Aug

    I'm running out time in terms of trying to make a profit this flat season but I am in front with my tracker horses and my one bet tomorrow is on one who has been on that list since May. At that time Critical Risk was trained by Brian Meehan and his win (actually dead heated) at Sandown that month was notable in that he lost a couple of lengths as the stalls opened and had to come wide and late in order to challenge so whilst a 6lb hike for such a small margin of success seems excessive on the face of it, his dawdling suggests the race went anything but his way and I strongly fancy him tomorrow. Another plus is that he has moved to Luca Cumani, one of my favourite trainer of handicappers.

EDIT: 19:34
    It's very, very rare for me to bet after I've posted my blog thoughts for the day but I did get involved this evening in the August Stakes at Windsor. I wasn't steaming (I think) after Critical Risk's defeat but after Fascinating Rock got turned over in the Winter Hill I think the layers got a bit greedy and Gospel Choir touched 3.3 on the machine just before the off half an hour later. I had to tuck in at that price, I made him a 6/4 poke. He lost, but I'm posting the bet as I want my P/L to be as accurate as possible.

World Famous Genting Casinos Handicap:

Critical Risk £50w @ 2/1 (2nd)

August Stakes:
Gospel Choir £40w @ 23/10 (2nd)

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Deauville - 23rd Aug

    I was disappointed with the tactics employed on Top Notch Tonto in the Stensall Stakes yesterday. I mentioned in my post the previous day that I was concerned about Mizzou's tendency to be held up in his races and that that wasn't the way to go at York this week but that I also felt his trainer was shrewd enough to adapt. This happened and the horse was just beaten by a horse I have to admit I hadn't considered as a danger. Anyway, no such shrewdness was evident in Brian Ellison's mind.

    The form of the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh in June has worked out really well with Legatissimo and Secret Gesture "winning" Group 1 races recently and I like the chances of the third in that race, Ribbons, in the Prix Jean Romanet tomorrow. She ran a cracking race on ground that wouldn't have been ideal for her and with soft conditions later today I think she'll be hard to beat. It bares relating that she was held up that day at the Curragh in a race where the winner enjoyed the run of the race and Dettori had to come late and wide. She won the Romanet last year and although it looks a stronger renewal this time around I think 4/1 is very fair. I've never been that convinced by the level of Avenir Certain's form and although We Are beat the selection at Longchamp back in the Autumn that was in a race run on good ground and Ribbons is notably better when she can get her toe in.

Prix Jean Romanet:

Ribbons £50w @ 4/1 (lost)

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York - 22nd Aug

    Just the one bet tomorrow with Oasis Fantasy not making the Ebor line-up and it's on Top Notch Tonto in the opener. Unusually for a sort of public horse he seems overpriced for this Group 3 event. His last run was only his second over tomorrow's trip and he ran really well in splitting Tulius and Prince Gibraltar in the York Stakes over course and distance. I reckon he rates a bit better than the bare form of that race as he was detached by two or three lengths at one point. Tomorrow's field seems mainly made up of handicappers stepping up in class or milers stepping up in trip (both on some counts) and the selection is pretty much the only one proven on both class and distance grounds. It's a competitive race and one or two of his rivals might relish this different test but at 7/1 I'm prepared to take a chance that Top Notch Tonto (who is a model of consistency) can hold them off.

Strensall Stakes:

Top Notch Tonto £45w @ 7/1 (lost)

Ebor Handicap:

Oasis Fantasy NR £30

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York - 21st Aug

    Today hurt quite a bit, Sea Calisi ran an absolute smasher in the Yorkshire Oaks but being held up cost her the race behind the pace chasing Pleascach and the front running Covert Love. My Nap tomorrow is also a hold up horse which worries me quite a bit. I punted Mizzou in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot and considering he didn't settle that well actually ran quite well to be beaten a little less than four lengths (he also covered more ground than the horses in front of him that day after having to be pulled wide to challenge.) He hasn't run since that day whereas a lot of his opponents in the Lonsdale Cup took in Goodwood or even ran in the King George in July. I fancy him quite strongly, he's still open to improvement and will get a faster pace tomorrow over this shorter trip. My one concern is is his hold up racing style and for that reason part of my stake is each way. I hope Cumani has different tactics in mind, he's shrewd enough of a trainer to be able to adapt.

    I've also re-acquainted myself with another Royal Ascot loser, Muthmir in the Nunthorpe. This horse would be around 7/2 for this without Acapulco in the race and although I fear the 2yo greatly given the ridiculous wfa here I'm happy to take 6/1 with the money back special concession for finishing second and good each way terms (1/4 and four places.) Muthmir ran a very nice race at Goodwood last time out under a penalty and has won at the track. Mange All was disappointing today for his trainer but Haggas is in rampant form with his Group horses.

Lonsdale Cup:

Mizzou £15ew @ 6/1 and £20w @ 62/10 (2nd)

Nunthorpe Stakes:

Muthmir £15ew @ 6/1 and £25w @ 6/1 (lost)

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York - 20th Aug

    I must admit Golden Horn being bested by a 50/1 shot in today's Juddmonte was very amusing to me, and I was delighted to see David Elsworth back in the Group 1 winners enclosure. When I first got into racing back in the late 1980s he was very much "the man" with top class horses over jumps and the flat - Desert Orchid and In the Groove in particular standing out.

    Francois Doumen hasn't quite reached the heights on the level after such notable successes with his National Hunt charges back in the day but he has a nice filly in Sea Calisi who runs in the Yorkshire Oaks tomorrow. I'm always a sucker for an overlooked foreign runner in a Group 1 so I sent a bit of time watching her videos on Equidia the other day and was impressed enough to take a bit of an interest at 14/1 before topping up at declaration time when she opened at 12s. She's a nice moving filly with a game attitude and it's a shame Katinya ran below form against Jazzy Top in the Prix de la Nonette the other day at Deauville as we would have had some reliable collateral form then but I think the conditions tomorrow will suit her and she looks overpriced to me. I fear Covert Love naturally, she's a filly with very little not to like about her, but the rest of the field look exposed or average at best at this level and I'm happy to take a punt at the price I have.

    My other bet is on an old favourite, Mange All in the big handicap over a mile. He's not run since March and hasn't won since the previous July, but his form from the the late Summer/Autumn period of last year has been boosted no end this season by the likes of GM Hopkins and The Corsican. His trainer is in excellent form as well and although the gap in races is a worry this event has nice price money attached and I'm hoping Haggas has him straight. If not I've taken some each way insurance (fingers crossed he doesn't finish fourth like Oasis Fantasy today - the two non runners in his race stung big time.)

Clipper Logistics Stakes (Handicap):

Mange All £20ew @ 8/1 (lost)

Yorkshire Oaks:

Sea Calisi £15w @ 14/1 and £15ew @ 12/1 (3rd)

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York - 19th Aug

    It rained pretty steadily at York yesterday and the ground is now good to soft. Presuming a dry day it will probably be near to good by race time and I would expect Gleneagles to run, if only because if they pull him what's the alternative - you could just as easily have worse ground at Leopardstown next month. The Juddmonte's roll of honour is stacked full of 12f animals and I would always prefer that type animal over milers stepping up (Frankel was a massive outlier.) The Grey Gatsby remains over priced at 12/1 and I expect him to run his best race of the year today. Last time out in the Eclipse Golden Horn did eventually put him in his place but at one point he looked a massive danger and that was in a race really not run to suit him given the relatively sedate pace they went that day. TGG loves York, it's long straight and a fast pace to go at and he gets his optimum conditions for the first time today. I can't see him out of the first three but admit that Golden Horn will be tough to beat. Another thing to consider though is that York has a history of producing shock results - I also wonder about Golden Horn being fit and ready for the King George, being pulled, and then having to be bought to his peak again so soon after. I have a sneaky he'll go close today.

    Oasis Fantasy is a horse I've banged on about a lot this season and I'm on him again today. His run behind Quest for More at Goodwood back in May was franked again at Glorious Goodwood even though the horse himself ran poorly on the opening day. He was never really put in the race though and in my opinion booking Hughes for that ride during his retirement week was a mistake. I'm disappointed Oasis Fantasy won't make the Ebor now as I slightly prefer that trip over the two miles he runs over today but I cannot see him run without my money on as he remains well handicapped. I took a bit of 8/1 when prices were released and have topped up since.

Juddmonte International:
The Grey Gatsby £30ew @ 105/10 (3rd)

Fine Equinity Handicap:
Oasis Fantasy £20w @ 8/1 and £15ew @ 15/2 (4th)

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York Thoughts

    

    Despite not being allowed the week off I am very excited about the Ebor meeting upcoming from Wednesday and the Juddmonte looks easily the race of the year. I was a bit premature with my bet on The Grey Gatsby as he's lengthened since my money went on but I've topped up at those bigger prices so it's all good. I find it hard to see him out of the frame and I honestly think he has a cracking chance of winning given the pace they'll likely go. I'll post my full thoughts on the race Wednesday morning.

    I was also premature with my ante-post bet on Oasis Fantasy for the Ebor as he misses the race for a two mile handicap also on Wednesday. I'm not overly bothered however as he'll have a leading chance in that race, his form with Quest for More earlier in the season has been franked twice by Charlton's horse now.

    Elsewhere I like Mange All in the mile handicap on Thursday. Some parts of his form from last season (with The Corsican for example) have been franked more than once. I've taken a small position (not 100% sure she runs) on the Francois Doumen trained Sea Calisi in the Yorkshire Oaks the same day. This is a progressive looking 3yo who will love the long straight and the fast ground. The front end of the market looks about right but the fillies there are far from unbeatable and this race looks the natural target for the selection as waiting for the Vermeille would involve running into Treve.

Juddmonte International:

The Grey Gatsby £30ew @ 105/10

Yorkshire Oaks:

Sea Calisi £15w @ 14/1

Ebor Handicap:

Oasis Fantasy NR £30

Ante-Post

    My season seems back on track after a good end to July's punting month and although I'm still down overall I am in front backing my tracker horses and that's a nice confidence booster for the weeks ahead. I get more of a buzz from an under the radar winner of a humdrum race, especially when most eyes are elsewhere on a big racing day, than I do from winners of the bigger group races these days. I think there's an element in backing big race winners of being the beneficiary of layers re-distributing some of the cash they have won off of favourite backers whereas a win like last Saturday's on Putting Green I see as more a punishment for lazy bookmaking.

    Speaking of big races, the Juddmonte at York in a week or so looks a mouth watering event with Golden Horn set to re-appear after being taken out of the King George. He's won over course and distance and is almost impossible to oppose but I've backed The Grey Gatsby anyway. Last year's Dante winner, who also ran a great race in defeat in this very races twelve months ago loves York and it's long straight and 9/1 is simply too big a price about him. As I write this he's twice the price of Gleneagles and Time Test and much as I respect both those animals that just can't be right. Gleneagles might stay but it's far from certain, as is his participation in the race, and Time Test despite looking incredibly impressive in his runs this campaign faces a massive step up in class and 4/1 is silly. The Grey Gatsby was bested relatively easily by Golden Horn in the Eclipse but it did take the Derby winner a while to assert and it must be said that a small field race with a steady gallop at a track like Sandown are far from the selection's ideal conditions and once again York will see the best of him - I find it incredibly hard to see him out of the frame and he's a decent each way bet at this stage.

Juddmonte International:

The Grey Gatsby £15ew @ 9/1

Ebor:
Oasis Fantasy £15ew @ 25/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Jack Hobbs £15w @ 10/1

--
Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £10w @ 156/10

Doncaster, Goodwood and Thirsk - 1st Aug

    After a very quiet week watching the action at Glorious Goodwood but not betting since Tuesday I have a bunch of tracker horses out today and a fancy in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes. I was busy researching and taking prices last night so didn't have chance to blog - some of my selections have shortened and one has lengthened and to be honest I can't be bothered posting screenshots.

    First bet of the day is Putting Green in the 2.55 at Doncaster. After going into my tracker when coming wide and late behind Dartmouth at Sandown earlier in the year he seemed to find the 10f at Goodwood on the short side in his next race and although he was down the field in a mile and a half handicap at the royal meeting that was a very strong race and he actually looked like challenging at one point before fading in the last half furlong. Dartmouth was in front of him again that day and has won since so there's no doubting the quality of that form and today's conditions should suit him. There'll be less of an emphasis on stamina given the field size and the flatness of Doncaster compared to Ascot and I was happy to get 14/1 last night. That price is now subject to a Rule 4 with a couple of rivals now not running and I've topped up at 8s this morning. Express Himself also runs at this meeting and I'm still keen on him despite the fact that he's won for me already this season (usually knock a horse off my tracker after they've scored.) His victory at Haydock was so eye catching after being left at the start that he's still ahead of the handicapper imo. That said he steps up to 10f today and this is off putting. For this reason I've just put him in a small double with Legatissimo, the main danger to my fancy in the Nassau Stakes.

    Star of Seville seems overpriced to my eyes in the big race of the day. Yes, the Prix de Diane was not a very strong renewal but that does not explain why she's trading longer than Lady of Dubai. This seems based on their relative positions at Epsom but the selection didn't stay that day and was almost knocked over at one point. Diamondsandrubies also looks too short, she had the run of the race big time in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh and with Star of Seville being a front runner she won't have that luxury today. Legatissimo is solid and hopefully I have cover with her. Later on at Goodwood I have backed Heartbreak Hero in the 7f handicap. This Haggas creature went into my tracker after an eye catching run at York last month when he was left at the start and had to be notably switched to the far side at one point in order to challenge. He looks well handicapped and although this looks a tough heat I'm getting decent odds. I actually took 8/1 last night and he has gone out to 10/1 in a place this morning - topped up.

    Lastly my nap of the day is Saigon City in the Summer Cup at Thirsk. I've probably banged on more about this horse than any other this season and I'm as keen on him as ever. Back in June I got 14s about him for a handicap at Salisbury and was so confident of a big return. He started at 5/1 and ran into a Group horse in Lightning Spear but still ran ever so well to get second. I was surprised his rating wasn't raised after that effort, and also after his conqueror that day ran so well behind Arod at Ascot and so he appeals hugely today. I worry about the big field  but granted even luck he should win. I took 9/2 and 4s yesterday evening.

That just about covers it, my busiest punting day since Cheltenham back in March. 

Unison Defending the NHS Handicap:

Putting Green £20w @ 14/1 and £20w @ 8/1 (won)

Unison Campaigning for Public Services Handicap/Nassau Stakes

Express Himself/Legatissimo £10w dbl @ 11/2 & 2/1 (lost)

Nassau Stakes:

Star of Seville £40w @ 7/1 (lost)

Qatar Stakes:

Heartbreak Hero £15ew @ 8/1 and £5ew @ 10/1 (lost)

Thirsk Summer Cup:

Saigon City £55w @ 427/100 (lost)

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