Goodwood - 28th July

    I have two bets tomorrow at Goodwood, both selections ones that have appeared on here already this season. Mount Logan runs in the opener and whilst I was gutted at the time that he didn't win the John Smith's at York (ran well enough to finish third but was probably given too much to do) that run confirmed his decent form profile at present and he should go well again. I just hope he can be put in the race with a decent chance rather than running on from the back again like at York and Royal Ascot.

    Initially I was not pleased to see Oasis Fantasy entered up in the 14f handicap later on in the card as I've backed him already for the Ebor next month but seeing 10/1 offered when the market opened for the race sweetened the pill somewhat. After being given coffin draws in his last two races he returns to the track where he went into my tracker when chasing home Plate winner Quest for More (got first run) back in May and I strongly believe this horse has a big handicap in him over further than 12f and he's a strong fancy for this.

Sky Bet Handicap:

Mount Logan £40w @ 9/1 (won)

Summer Stakes Handicap:
Oasis Fantasy £15ew @ 10/1 and £10w @ 8/1 (lost)

(-722.63)

Ascot & York - 25th July

    Telescope met with a set back earlier this week and doesn't run in the King George, but I'm so stoked about my other bet today that I'm not too bothered.

    I took 9/2 about Prince Gibraltar when the sponsors opened a book on the race on Monday and I have topped up a few times since then. Paddy Power actually offered 6/1 at one point which made me suspicious, I suspected they had a mole somewhere and had gotten word that he wasn't making the journey. I could not resist having a bit on at those ridiculous odds and I topped up last night at 3/1 and this morning at 11/4. The horse is a bit of a monkey and doesn't win very often but he has faced some top class opponents and the conditions today suit him much more than Custom Cut. I've had some heart breaking seconds this season and if somehow he doesn't win he'll go very close so come IR lays have been placed. 

Skybet York Stakes:

Prince Gibraltar £165w @ 335/100 - IR lays placed at 2.8 and 2.1 for £40 a piece (3rd)

King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes:

Telescope NR £30

(-1042.63)

Ante-Post

    The King George on Saturday looks a fascinating renewal with a top class Derby winner going up against a host of decent older horses. I think there is one difference between this race though and the Eclipse earlier in the month - on that occasion Golden Horn had only one serious rival and that horse, The Grey Gatsby, was not racing over his optimum conditions (I think he needs a stamina test over 10f, the Juddmonte looks his ideal race, or even 12f now). The field lining up on Saturday however features the likes of Postponed, Flintshire, Eagle Top, Telescope - none of them what you would call formidable but all decent animals who will be suited by the distance/going at Ascot. Given Golden Horn's very short odds (1/2) I'm happy to kind of take him on (it's a renewal with a good each way shape to it) and I've opened up by taking 14s about Telescope. He was very poor in the Hardwicke last time out over course and distance but it was a run too bad to be true and I'm prepared to take a chance at his over inflated odds. He was second in the King George last year and it took a top class filly to beat him then.

    I always peruse the ante-post lists on a Monday and the sponsors have opened a market on the Skybet Group 2 York Stakes. Prince Gibraltar stands out like a sore thumb at 9/2 and although I can't find any information as to whether or not it's a guaranteed target it makes sense to run him as he has showed a liking for decent ground in the past and I can't think of any targets below Group 1 level for him in France. The opposition looks thin on the ground and it's a race that could cut up. I would normally dismiss the favourite out of hand here as he's looks a pure miler but Custom Cut's trainer is having a monster season and anything he runs at York in particular has to be feared. If Rouget lets Prince Gibraltar run he'll be incredibly difficult to beat, he just has a better form profile for the conditions of the race than anything else in the field.

Skybet York Stakes:

Prince Gibraltar £20w @ 9/2

King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes:

Telescope £15ew @ 14/1

Ebor:
Oasis Fantasy £15ew @ 25/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Jack Hobbs £15w @ 10/1

--
Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £10w @ 156/10

Curragh - 18th July

    The racing in the UK today is very uninspiring, I think it's one of those Saturday's I usually ignore unless I have a tracker horse out and my one bet is over the Irish Sea in the Oaks at The Curragh. I took 3s about Curvy earlier in the week for reason I laid out in my entry on Tuesday and there really isn't a whole lot to add. She's a progressive filly with an outstanding attitude and although the forecast rain isn't ideal I'm happy to top up my initial bet with the 11/4 available in a place now.

Irish Oaks:

Curvy £40w @ 29/10 (3rd)

(-927.63)

Sandown 15th July / Irish Oaks

    I have a tracker horse running tomorrow, a 3yo filly called Artesana who is in the last at Sandown. She went into my tracker after her staying on second in a Windsor handicap at the end of June, I liked the way she found for pressure that day and put in my notes on her that a stiffer 12 or even a step up to further would suit and so tomorrow's contest over 14f looks ideal. However, the market for this race is headed by a Haggas inmate who looks very solid given that she only has to carry a 6lb penalty for a facile win at Carlisle last Friday. In saying that with eight runners and a short priced favourite this becomes a good each way race. I took some 9s when the market opened (premature really with such a strong favourite) and have topped up at 10s just now.

    I took 3/1 about Curvy for the Irish Oaks this coming Sunday as soon as I read that Diamondsandrubies was not an intended runner. Curvy impressed me with her attitude in winning the Ribblesdale, she stuck her neck out and really grinded it out all the way to the line. So without the Pretty Polly winner in the race I don't see much opposition - although I do concede that Ballydoyle have been known to pick up Classics with horses with less than impressive form profiles in the past.

Unibet Distance Betting Every Race Handicap:

Artesana £20ew @ 95/10 (lost)

(-887.63)

Irish Oaks:

Curvy £30w @ 3/1

Ante-Post

    Last week wasn't bad by any means but I have an element of frustration. I was a bit light on Amazing Maria in the Falmouth but I've mentioned numerous times in this blog that I keep a tight reign on my bets on double figure priced horses in conditions races as my profit and loss figures on them historically is way into the red, but I probably should have had more on the win part of the bet. Lightning Spear's excellent run in the Summer Mile at Ascot encapsulated this frustration I feel at present as he beat the horse at the top of tracker last time out in a Salisbury handicap. Now obviously that horse (Saigon City) would not have been 14/1 without Lightning Spear's presence in the race, but he would have been a 5 or 6/1 winner. These things happen though, and my discipline remains airtight.

    Another thing that has gone wrong this season (sorry for the continuous whining) is the draw a number of my selections have received in their races. Oasis Fantasy in particular has been most unfortunate having been given death berths the last two times he's run. Most times though there is a positive spin one can put on things and whilst I wasn't pleased with his run in the Plate at Newcastle, the winner did frank the form of their battle at Goodwood over a mile and six earlier in the season. The recency bias bookies operate under has also meant he's a far bigger price for the Ebor than he should be and I am very happy to take 25/1 at this early stage. There are some right boats ahead of him in the market and the trip will really suit him. I have no worries about his stamina, something that concern me slightly at Newcastle.

Ebor:
Oasis Fantasy £15ew @ 25/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Jack Hobbs £15w @ 10/1

--
Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £10w @ 156/10

York - 11th July

    I was up early this morning going over all the cards in a stacked day and there are temptations aplenty. Gabrial's Kaka has been dropped another 3lbs after his disappointing "effort" at Sandown last week and runs in the opener at York but after much consideration I can't get involved again, he's a horse who's cost me too much money. I was all over Muthmir for the King's Stand and he seemed to find even that stiff 5f not enough of a test but I would prefer to back him over 6 on a flatter track so I've left him alone also.

    My one bet then is an ante-post one, Mount Logan in the John Smith's Cup. He went onto my tracker after his eye catching run at the royal meeting behind Mahsoob where he ran on really well all the way to the line after being short of room. 10f at Ascot with it's short straight were not ideal conditions for him as he's a horse with winning form over a mile and a half but York's extended 10f with it's long straight are bang on. I took 16s immediately the market opened and have topped up at 9/1 today. Cumani has put a claimer on today and there is no doubt he's well handicapped.

John Smith's Cup:
Mount Logan £40w @ 116/10 (3rd)

(-847.63)

Newmarket - 10th July

 

                                                                              Giofra - 2012

    Like my entry yesterday this one won't be too long as I've already posted my thoughts on one of my bets tomorrow. I think Amazing Maria is overpriced in the Falmouth Stakes given she's one of the few contenders in it who will relish the quick ground. I took 12s at the start of the week and have just topped up at 9/1. Lucida will be tough to beat though so I've gone in each way.

    My other bet is on old favourite Express Himself in the closing race on the card. He's been on my tracker since his seasonal debut in April and whilst I normally remove horses from my list after they've won I left this on in because of the way he won at Haydock last time out. He was slowly out of the gate losing around four lengths as a consequence and mentally I'd consigned my bet to the bin, but Moore roused him home up the straight and he prevailed by just under a length. A five pound rise in the ratings looks lenient given the task he had after his tardy start and I fancy him strongly tomorrow.

Falmouth Stakes:
Amazing Maria £15ew @ 11/1 (won)

Arrowpak International Movers Handicap:
Express Himself £40w @ 3/1 (2nd)

(-807.63)

Newmarket - 9th July

 

                                                                     Millenary - 2003

    I posted my thoughts on tomorrow's Princess of Wales's Stakes yesterday evening. I think Hillstar is overpriced for the race and I'm pleased to see his odds have remained steady at 13/2 - a price I'm happy to top up at. Gospel Choir, his stable companion, looks the danger to me and I've hedged on him.

Princess of Wales's Stakes:
Hillstar £40w @ 13/2 (lost)

Gospel Choir (lost) Mount Logan (John Smith's Cup) £10w dbl @ 7/2 and 9/1

(-964.75)

Ante-Post

    I mentioned how much of a big week this is for me during last night's entry and Officer Sydney finishing close second after looking all over the winner (touched 1.05 IR) in the last furlong was hardly the start I was after but I feel instinctively that I've turned the corner this season and I'm confident I can be in profit by the Autumn.

    The July meeting starts on Thursday and I have a couple of wagers lined up. In the Princes of Wales's Stakes I've taken some 13/2 about the Stoute trained Hillstar who I also backed in the race last year. Twelve months ago he finished second - undone partly by the rain softened ground and partly by being held up in a tactical race. This year's renewal is similar in many ways as the race features a short priced favourite stepping out of handicap company for the first time. Arab Spring was evens last season and like Hillstar was also unsuited by the rain that came before the race and this time around Mahsoob is similarly ridiculously short - in fact he's more opposable than Arab Spring was as to me his form isn't as strong. Hillstar is very under the radar as his one run in 2015 was a down the field effort in the Hardwicke - but he ran well enough in the race considering he was conceding fitness to his rivals. He was only 7/2 last season and so 13/2 stands out from a value perspective. I might hedge on stable companion Gospel Choir on the day.

    My other fancy is Amazing Maria in the Falmouth on Friday. It's a bit of a tentative selection as her form in winning at the Royal meeting was someway ahead of anything else she has achieved but her trainer is top drawer and I'm prepared at her price to give her the benefit of the doubt. The favourite Lucida looks strong but I think the majority of her other rivals look vulnerable on the likely fast ground. Avenir Certain has a high knee action and has never raced on faster than good, Fintry has encountered fast ground before and that was when she was disappointing on 1000 Guineas day back in May and yet another French trainer filly, Bawina, is yet another who has no form on ground with little cut in it. I therefore think 12s about O'Meara's filly is too big and she's a good each way bet.

Princess of Wales's Stakes:
Hillstar £25w @ 13/2

Falmouth Stakes:
Amazing Maria £10ew @ 12/1

John Smith's Cup:
Mount Logan £15w @ 16/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Jack Hobbs £15w @ 10/1

--
Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:
Whisper £10w @ 156/10

    

Pontefract - 7th July

    I have a tracker horse called Officer Sydney, a 3yo in the care of Brian Meehan, running in the 4.40 at Ponte' tomorrow. His first effort in a handicap came last week at Windsor over a mile where he ran on well after a tardy looking start to finish in the frame at 25/1. I was a bit tentative about sticking him the old electronic notebook but thought he had potential of his mark and I think he's fairly priced at 5/1 tomorrow. Obviously at this level (0-70) I'm not familiar with the opposition but just a quick look at the favourite Pumaflor's form (eleven lifetimes runs, only one over tomorrow's distance, where he was nowhere) is enough to suggest he's short. This is a fairly important week with quite a few tracker animals entered up at the July meeting and on a variety of cards this coming Saturday so let's hope for a good start to it.

Hilco Appraisal Handicap:
Officer Sydney £40w @ 5/1 (2nd)

(-914.75)

Sandown - 4th July

    The theme of this flat season has been my ability to beat the odds on a consistent basis without any reward. I must admit I've felt really down about this on a number of occasions but I've drawn an analogy that has sort of perked me up and motivated me to ride it out. What I've imagined is a Roulette table where I was getting paid at bigger odds than the true likelihood of the bets I was placing - so I'm getting 6/4 on black or red or let's say 8/1 about a six number split bet. Just because I'm getting over the odds doesn't mean a guaranteed profit short term - and that is what's happening this season, I'm just on a run of bad short term luck.

    I'm hoping for a turning of the tide soon and my bet on Waady in the Coral Charge tomorrow looks an ideal place to start. I took 6/1 earlier in the week in the likelihood of the race cutting up and that is just what has happened. I topped up at 5/2 earlier this evening and I can see the horse starting around 7/4 now. Massive chance.

    My other bet is on an old tracker horse, Gabrial's Kaka in the Coral Challenge. I thought long and hard about this bet because he's been a bit of a cliff horse but I just cannot resist him off 95. He was fourth in this race last season off 103 so there's no doubt he's well handicapped unless some sort of decline is setting in. I'm prepared to give the horse the benefit here as in his last three outings two were over 10f - he doesn't stay, and the other over just short of a mile at Chester he ran well in from a bad draw - circling the field and running on at the death. Taking an early price on Waady has worked out fantastic but not so with this bet as he's longer now than when I took 14s on Wednesday evening. This is because of a poor draw but it's not the death knell Oasis Fantasy's was last week and I'm happy enough to top up at 18s.

Coral Charge:
Waady £50w @ 425/100 (won)

Coral Challenge:
Gabrial's Kaka £20ew @ 16/1 (lost)

(-874.75)