Wetherby - 31st Oct

    Just the one bet today with my fancy for the Fillies and Mares race at Keeneland seemingly pulled out after not travelling over that well. Luckily the Breeders Cup declare for their races much earlier than we do over here so it wasn't an ante-post bet.

    The conditions of the Charlie Hall at Wetherby favour the three horses carrying 11st - Dynaste, Cue Card and Ballynagour. By conditions I mainly mean the penalty system in play for the race but also trip and ground. Sam Winner and Many Clouds concede lumps of weight to the horses mentioned above and both are staying types who are best at distances in excess of three miles. Holywell I've backed for the Gold Cup but he's always best watched first time out, especially on ground softer than he likes. That leaves Menorah of those in the race with penalties to carry and whilst he had the same welter burden last season this field looks a lot stronger (Silviniaco Conti needed the race twelve months ago.)

    Dynaste and Cue Card are closely matched on a number of meetings between the pair and I just favour the former partly because his last big run (last year's King George) is a lot fresher in the memory and whilst he's coming back from injury his run in France over hurdles should have put him spot on. Cue Card just didn't finish his races at Aintree and Punchestown last spring and although 7/1 when betting opened was fair at 4/1 now he makes no appeal. Ballynagour looks the main danger to the selection and runs well fresh so should be thereabouts. I would consider covering on him but feel he's better over fences on good ground. 

Charlie Hall Chase:

Dynaste £15w @ 5/1 and £25w @ 7/2 mbs (2nd)

    

Weekend Action

    I keep prematurely writing off my flat season and then discovering a bet. I don't usually pay a whole lot of attention to the Breeders Cup but found myself looking at the fillies and mares turf simply because Legatissimo is such a chronic price. She's been on the go since April and I just don't trust 3yos this time of year from Ballydoyle who've had a long year. So her price makes the race a good each one and whilst I initially thought of Miss France the ground looks like it will be against her. Bawina is a filly I backed in the Sun Chariot where she received a poor ride from Maxime Guyon who managed to find lots of trouble in running. Happily Peslier takes over now and with good soft ground form over 10f trip and ground will be fine. She's slightly below the top level in Europe having found Amazing Maria, Ervedya and Esoterique too good for her this season but if we presume Legatissimo bombs out on Saturday then the race won't take as much winning as a Group 1 over here. 16/1 is good value.

    My first bet of the jumps season will be on Dynaste in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby. He's just about the best horse in the field when he's on a going day and his hurdles run in France should put him spot on for this. I'll go into greater detail about this race on Saturday.

Breeders Cup F&M Turf: Bawina £20ew @ 16/1

Charlie Hall: Dynaste £15w @ 5/1

Flat Postscript - Jumps Thoughts

    The first thing to say about my flat season is the final profit/loss figure is disappointing but weirdly I consider the last six months to have been a success, mainly with regard to the future and things I will put in place next season. Over the years my most profitable kind of bet has been long priced handicappers in big ante-post events like the Cambridgeshire, the Hunt Cup and the Northumberland Plate. I have pics of my best winners all over my flat and these type winners - Bronze Angel, Angel Gabrial, Caribbean Monarch, Nice One Clare and Beachamp Pilot - dominate. This season though a number of the tracker horses I found during the year ended up going in at 8/1+ in really sort of humdrum races - I had a 14/1 shot go in at Doncaster on the opening race of their card on Stewards Cup day. This excites me as I don't need to rely on finding sorts for big ante-post races if they crop up in common or garden events during a typical year and so in future I really will be placing added importance (meaning more money staked) on horses that fall into this category - and I'll be able to afford this by placing a budget on shorter priced fancies. These type bets - less than 4/1 - really haven't been that profitable for me over the years and so I'm going to get away from them. It's so important to analysis one's performance in betting and budgeting bets at longer prices on group races, something I started last season, has really worked well - losses in that sphere have been vastly reduced the last two seasons.

    Anyway on to the Jumps. Like most serious punters this tends to revolve around those magical four days in March at Cheltenham and although I'll be active during the winter I don't as much at this time of year as during the height of summer and I'm not looking for tracker types apart from Nick Williams inmates that I always look out for. The last couple of Festivals have been disappointing and I put this mainly down to being too free and easy with my ante-post bets. I simply have too many of them and the non-runner count has been crippling last season and the one before. Having said that four of the last six years I have been on a horse before the end of November at double figures that has ended up winning the following March. Sizing Europe I initially backed for his Arkle during the previous October at 20/1 - Sprinter Sacre I backed for his not long after the 2011 Festival at 12s, Jezki I punted for his Champion Hurdle at 20/1 not long after his Supreme third and last year I backed Uxizandre for the Ryanair well before Christmas at 14s. Sadly the last two named I went off big style and didn't top up on. So I want a smaller band of backed horses but with more on and with a nod to bigger prices - the chance of a NR must be factored in more and so at much less than 10/1 I ain't interested - unless it's Don Poli lol.

    This entry is getting a bit too long so I'll finish with a rundown of my current Cheltenham fancies.

Faugheen will be incredibly hard to beat in the Champion Hurdle but there was a lot of like about Peace and Co's Triumph win on unsuitably slow ground. I think the old course will suit him more and with better ground almost guaranteed on the Tuesday I think he'll give the champ something to think about - I'm just hoping for a decent sized field and a fast pace. Whisper ran well enough in last year's World Hurdle despite no prep whatsoever and beat the winner when they met again at Aintree. With thoughts of novice chasing out the window he should have a far smoother prep this season and double figure quotes even at this stage are very fair. Apache Stronghold may just about be my favourite chaser in trainer and he rates better than the bare result of the JLT last March. Carberry went for him far earlier than he would have done normally that day to try and keep tabs on Vautour and he was crazy big for the Ryanair at 33/1 a few weeks ago, topped up since. Noel Meade said he wasn't keen to run him over 3m+ again after the horse got beaten by Don Poli last Christmas so I doubt he'll be aimed at the Gold Cup - his price looks a complete rick to me - have to hope Vautour goes for the longer race however. As for the blue ribband itself, it looks mouth watering at this stage and at the prices I like Don Poli and Holywell. The former looks all over a staying chaser of the highest class and he has lengthened from around 6/1 since his flop at Punchestown. Holywell ran a cracker behind Coneygree considering the ground was completely against him last March and I glady took some 44 on Betfair about him a week or so ago. No doubt I'll be posting more about these races as the months pass. 

Champion Hurdle:

Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:

Whisper £10w @ 156/10

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £14w @ 31/1

Gold Cup:

Don Poli £20w @ 82/10

Holywell £5w @ 43/1

Woodbine - 18th Oct

    I genuinely thought I was done with the flat for the year, my tracker has been wiped and the Breeder's Cup doesn't really interest me but perusing Oddschecker this morning I came across the prices for the Canadian International this evening our time in Canada. British stables tend to farm this event and it's not a surprise that our horses head the market and whilst I expect Cannock Chase and Second Step to fight it out, their prices are all wrong. Stoute's horse is 7/4 and Cumani's 3/1. I don't think there is much between them ability wise but would argue the latter has the slightly better form profile overall and has even won abroad. I can only think their price differential is partly because Cannock Chase won last time out (a pretty ropey listed event) as opposed to Second Step's fourth place in the Irish Leger (I backed him that day and was disappointed but ultimately he just didn't stay.) The other factor could be Ryan Moore going over to ride - but so what, we saw on Found yesterday how average he can be at times and I never factor jockeys into my bets anyway - the flat bunch are all much of a muchness since Steve Cauthen retired. One slight concern is how flat Agent Murphy ran yesterday after taking in that Curragh race but then again I kind of have a lot of faith in Cumani and the knowledge he has of his charges - he surely wouldn't take a horse all that way unless he was 100% happy with him.

Canadian International:

Second Step £40w @ 3/1 (lost)

Ascot - 17th Oct

    Let's get straight into it, I have a fair few wagers today. In the first I backed Agent Murphy earlier in the week expecting him to shorten from the 6/1 I took. I suppose it's such a big day that the market for all these races is quite strong and he remains at that price today. I've topped up and despite a largish field I don't think this is competitive as some of the other contests on the card and ultimately 6/1 about the best horse in the race is a good bet - it's the same price he started at in the Irish Leger, a race that had way more depth to it from a quality standpoint. He stayed on well at The Curragh suggesting two miles is ok and I'm as confident as I can be about a horse in my wheelhouse (bets in conditions events on horses priced between 4 and 8/1 is one of my most profitable betting angles) in a year where I've not done as well as in the past on those type bets.

    Sea Calisi is another of those kind of bets and although her tendency to get behind in her races is a concern given the short straight today I think she's overpriced at 7/1. She was the best horse in the Yorkshire Oaks and is fresher than Covert Love who just beat her that day so a point and half difference between the two is unjustified - I would strongly argue that the selection should be shorter than Hugo Palmer's filly in the betting. Simple Verse is also shorter than Sea Calisi, but that filly has something more than Leger boats to beat today and is easily the worst value in the race. I do fear Candarliya who heads the market as I type but there was little between the two French contenders in the Vermeille and Sea Calisi missing Longchamp (Candarliya took in a race on the Saturday) is a plus in her favour.

    I was thinking of backing Kodi Bear for the QEII but the will he/won't he clusterfuck surrounding the participation of Gleneagles and possibility of beefy rule 4's puts me off so I'm leaving the race alone. This is a shame as I want to be against Solow who isn't as far ahead of Kodi Bear and Territories as the market suggests.

    My ante-post position on Vadamos is my strongest of the day. I took 33s after reading the master trainer's comments about him after his win in Germany at the beginning of September and the topping up I've done since has left me with an average 16/1 about a 7/1 poke. Nice. There's not much I can say about this colt's form because I don't really know it, but Fabre has been good to me over the years and I trust him more than any other trainer. Naturally my possie on his horse means I'm beating the book on this race all ends up so I've added Found at 9/2. I don't normally like her trainer's 3yos this time of year as he rarely gives them much of a break (Gleneagles excepted I guess) but this filly seems tough and genuine and her form behind Golden Horn isn't that far behind Jack Hobbs and I think a stiff 10f and the short straight will suit her more than it will the favourite. At his type of price (6/4) I'd want everything in favour today and it simply is not. He's very opposable.

Long Distance Cup:
Agent Murphy £60w @ 6/1 (lost)

Fillies' & Mares:

Sea Calisi £50w @ 7/1 (lost)

Champion Stakes:

Vadamos £35w @ 16/1 (lost)

Found £40w @ 9/2 (2nd)

Free Eagle NR £10

(-516.82)

Champions Day

    This Saturday's card at Ascot will end my betting for this flat season, the tracker has been wiped clean and I'm ready for some jumping.

    I'm already on the Fabre trained Vadamos for the Champion Stakes at a huge 33/1 (topped up since this initial bet) and I've added a couple more today with the five day entries out. I'll post a more complete entry detailing my thoughts on the races on Firday evening but for now I've backed Agent Murphy in the Long Distance Cup and Sea Calisi in the Fillies & Mares race. The former has form at the track, looks like he will stay judged on his Irish Leger run and aside from Forgotten Rules (who has major ground concerns) has the best form on offer in the race. Doumen's filly was the best filly in the Yorkshire Oaks and ran a nice race on ground probably a bit too soft for her in the Vermeille and it's interesting that her French trainer bypassed Paris on Arc day with her for this race. I also like Kodi Bear in the QEII and might add Tapestry in Sea Calisi's race, I'd be really keen on her but for a rather pointless outing in the Arc where she was tailed off. I'll have to mull that one over.

Long Distance Cup:

Agent Murphy £25w @ 6/1

Fillies & Mares Stakes:

Sea Calisi £20w @ 7/1

Champion Stakes:

Vadamos £25w @ 192/10

Newmarket and Chepstow - 10th Oct

   A rather disappointing run from the Godolphin filly I backed today together with the impressive way the Ballydoyle youngster won the Fillies' Mile has meant the market for the Dewhurst tomorrow has been shaken up big time. Emotionless is now available at 6/4 in a place having been around evens earlier in the week, admittedly when the ground was more of an unknown. I was impressed enough with his win at Doncaster to snap up some 12/1 quotes for the 2000 Guineas straight after the race and the form has been franked since (kind of) by Galileo Gold's effort in the Lagardere last Sunday. I'm very excited by this horse, he's the best 2yo I've seen since Frankel and don't see him losing tomorrow. Now 6/4 shots are not my betting bag so I'm not going in with a lumpy single - instead I'm doubling him with Tea for Two in the big handicap hurdle at Chepstow. As a Nick Williams follower I was naturally on when he easily landed the Lanzarote back in January and it is fascinating to see how he's been handicapped since that run. He was off 134 that day, went up to 153, was took down to 148 after his second in a novice hurdle the following month (four runner race completely against him) and after being pulled up in an attritional Albert Bartlett at the Festival has been further reduced to a handicap mark of 142 - in short a winning looking rating.

Dewhurst/Silver Trophy:

Emotionless/Tea for Two £20w dbl @ 6/4 and 6/1 (lost)

(-321.82)

Newmarket - 9th Oct

    I don't have that many bets on 2yo races but when I do it's usually this time of year. The Fillies' Mile at headquarters tomorrow looks a decent renewal and it's one of those races where I looked at the odds and immediately thought things were a bit off. I've no issue with Minding being favourite for the race, she won her Group 1 well enough last time out and her stable companion franked the form in Paris but surely the Gosden creature who is second in the market is almost priced up on some sort of Golden Horn reflection type thing. Nathra has won two ordinary soft ground races very easily but this is a massive step up in class and she's at least half the odds she should be. Promising Run however has decent form not only on the ground but has won over course and distance. There was a lot to like about the way she stayed on in winning the Rockfel a couple of weeks back from a couple of nice types and I'm happy to take 6/1. Part of my bet is with Powers who offer a free bet to your stake if she's second to the fav.

Fillies' Mile:

Promising Run £25w @ 6/1 mbs and £15w @ 62/10 (lost)

(-301.82)

Arc Day

    What a fantastic card we have in Paris today, Group 1 races up the ying yang and I've had quite a few bets.

    I'll start with the big race itself. Treve is a horse I don't take on lightly but there are enough chinks to think she's worth opposing at a very short price. The Arc traditionally favours 3yos who have a mid summer break after taking in a classic or two. I believe in the past what you had was these colts and fillies rested up in their stables whilst the older horses were battling it out in all aged events, look at the season Montjeu had when he was four compared to his Arc winning campaign, he didn't take the King George in at three. This isn't really a factor with Treve as they have had the Arc in mind all year naturally. However I also feel the WFA favours the 3yos. Now normally when punters talk about weight concessions in condition events I mentally switch off, the WFA scale is meant to bring horses of different aged groups together, it is not a handicap. But sometimes this scale is over generous - A 3yo colt gets 8lbs from an older horse in the Arc, they get 11lbs from them in the Eclipse in early July and 8lbs also in the Sussex Stakes in early August. I actually think the scale for the two races in England is pretty much spot on taking the time of year and the race distance into account. The Arc comes two months after the Sussex and yes it is over further but the scale should have still dropped by October. I think 5, maybe 6lbs would be more in line. Anyway, last year Treve was imperious in defending her title, she beat Flintshire into second and filling the frame were two 3yos - Taghrooda and Kingston Hill. Both very good animals but neither had had a typical Arc type prep and it has to be said the race did go much more Treve's way than these two - both were badly drawn. So I feel she is vulnerable to a high class 3yo who has had a traditional campaign and who is well drawn - step forward New Bay. He's trained by the master, would be a dual classic winner but for a chronic draw in the Poulains, and is primed to the minute for this in what looks pretty much a two horse race. I'm on ante-post and have taken 11/2 this morning at Powers with a special money back concession - if he's second to the SP fav I get my stake back as a freebie. I have sort of dismissed Golden Horn but he's been active all summer and is drawn wide. I can't have him at all.

    Onto the rest of the card. I've got involved in Antonoe in the Marcel Boussac because Ballydoyle is a terrible looking favourite for the race. She's relatively exposed and seems pretty much priced up on her name. Pascal Bary's filly looks full of promise and should be clear market leader.

    I posted my thoughts on the l'Opera a few days back, the race has cut up since and We Are looks a solid bet now. I've topped up since final decs and she looks value in not as competitive a race as it once looked.

    Finally we come to the Foret. I'm a big fan of Limato but all his good form is on a straight track and a widish looking draw round a bend on this course is far from ideal for him. Therefore he must be taken on at the price (he's 7/4). I backed Make Believe at the Royal Meeting in the mistaken belief that Gleneagles (remember him?) was worth taking on. He ran like a drain and by all accounts is a delicate horse to train, but if we give him a pass for that effort (and some horses do not like Ascot, it's a bit like York in that regard) then 6/1ish is worth a go (I did get some 7s on Friday) 

Prix Marcel Boussac:

Antonoe £40w @ 15/8 (lost)

Prix de l'Opera:

Avenir Certain NR £10

We Are £15ew @ 9/1 and £15w @ 15/2 (3rd)

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:

Jack Hobbs NR £15

New Bay £30w @ 575/100 and £25w @ 11/2 (3rd)

Prix de la Foret:

Make Believe £40w @ 66/10 (won)

(-261.82)

Newmarket - 3rd Oct

    I've already posted my thoughts on today's Group 1 at Newmarket where I took 8/1 about Bawina on Wednesday. She's a consistent filly and it's hard to see her finishing out of the first three. I've topped up at 13/2 this morning with the Hills concession of a free bet if your selection is second. Esoterique is very short at around 6/4 and I fear Integral more, she's worth a bit of a saver.

    My other bet is on Critical Risk in the 5.15. He went into my tracker way back in May when he dead heated in a handicap over a mile at Sandown. I've backed him the last two times he's run - a fast finishing second off a slow pace at Windsor and a strange race at Yarmouth last time out on a day where the card was abandoned with a couple of races left - I haven't seen that race, it's not viewable on video form (Sporting Life) probably because of the issues they had that day. He remains off a winning mark and is in the best possible hands for a handicapper at this sort of trip.

Sun Chariot Stakes:

Bawina £15ew @ 8/1 and £25w @ 13/2 (lost)

Integral (lost) Critical Risk £10w dbl @ 7/2 and 3/1

Racing FX Currency Conversion Handicap:

Critical Risk £30w @ 7/2 (lost)

(-402.82)

Arc Weekend

    I'm really excited about the Arc on Sunday. With Treve, New Bay, Golden Horn and Free Eagle amongst the runners it looks a very good renewal, only missing a Japanese runner for added spice. I've topped up on New Bay today as he has drifted to 11/2.

    Elsewhere on that card and at Newmarket on Saturday I've had a couple of each way tickles. Avenir Certain was my original fancy for the l'Opera but she isn't running now. It remains a race to get stuck into with the front two in the marker very opposable. Covert Love is slightly overrated to my mind and looks a pure 12f filly to boot and the Bolger filly looks the type who has had enough racing this year. We Are won the race on likely similar ground last season and is overpriced at 9/1 for this renewal. She hasn't had a good season to be fair but the only time she has had her optimum conditions (10f on decent ground) she ran into Treve. No such monsters lurk in this race and it's hard to see her finishing out of the frame.

    In the Sun Chariot at Newmarket Esoterique, Miss France, Integral and Bawina are all broadly fillies of similar ability and so the prices we have for them for Saturday's contest - 6/4, 4/1, 11/2 and 8/1 respectively are a bit too spaced apart and so I'm going with Bawina. She's been very consistent this year and her best run probably is her second to Amazing Maria on the July Course in the Falmouth when she wasn't beaten far and covered more ground than anything else in the race having tracker over from the stands side to the middle of the course in order to get a clear run. Esoterique has had a great season but has had things go her way and I doubt she's much better than she was in 2014. She's too short and like We Are at Lonchamp on Sunday I find it difficult to see Bawina not placing in this event.

Sun Chariot Stakes:

Bawina £15ew @ 8/1

Prix de l'Opera:
Avenir Certain NR £10
We Are £15ew @ 9/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Jack Hobbs £15w @ 10/1
New Bay £30w @ 575/100