Cheltenham Postscript / Ante-Post

    I thoroughly enjoyed the Festival despite just having the one winner. It was one of the highest quality editions I can remember, particularly in the novice chase division and despite not having a penny on him I was delighted to see Coneygree win the Gold Cup. I had him down as a potential star when he won a Novice Hurdle at the November meeting back in 2011 and his non-appearance at the following Festival was very expensive as I had over a ton on him for the Albert Bartlett. I fear the way he veered left towards the finish was maybe an indicator of extreme tiredness and just hope long term he shows no ill effects from the race.

    Performance of the week went to Vautour in the JLT. I can't remember ever seeing any chaser, let alone a novice, put in such a picture perfect round of jumping. The shape he made over each fence was breathtaking and It'll be very interesting to see his programme for next season. One would think he'd be aimed at the King George, and I wouldn't oppose him on good ground, but his one below par run this season came on soft ground before the turn of the year so I wouldn't be interested ante-post. As for a Gold Cup tilt, with Djakadam in the same ownership I wouldn't be certain about that. I would be against Don Poli as well at a short price for the blue ribband - as good as he looked in the RSA he is a horse who races lazily and on a decent surface I think he'd lose too much ground, particularly if Coneygree was in the field. At this stage I have no ante-post interest in any race at next year's Festival but would favour both Djakadam and Holywell (who must have hated the ground last Friday) at double figure prices.

    There was a period from when the Gold Cup finished until mid day on Sunday where I had absolutely nothing in my ante-post book, and I can't remember that ever being the case before. I usually have a position on the National or a Guineas by that time of the year. Maybe it made me antsy because I spent most of Sunday morning looking at those races and have come up with a couple of bets.

    At Aintree I have backed Godsmejudge at 25/1. He's a horse with some excellent form in the spring having hit the frame in two Scottish Nationals - and his third in the Whitebread last season a fortnight after finishing second at Ayr really was a noteworthy effort. He ran well enough over too short a trip at Kempton last time out and looks poised for a big run. He stays and jumps well enough to get heavily involved in the race.

    At Newmarket in May I'm siding with the master trainer. I backed High Celebrity when she was a commendable third in the Cheveley Park back in the Autumn - she came up against two high quality two year olds in that race and just didn't have their speed. This filly had a bit of a weird campaign in 2014. She opened up over 7f and was then dropped down to 5+ (where she first came to my attention.) M. Fabre has indicated he used the Cheveley Park run as a sighter for the Guineas and whilst she was off and on the bridal I think that was more to do with the pace Tiggy Wiggy went rather than the undulations of the track. High Celebrity is a well made filly with scope and I think 12/1 is decent value at this stage. Found from Ballydoyle is the market leader at present and she does have close form ties via Cursory Glance but that filly's win in the Moyglare wasn't up to the level she displayed in the Lowther against the aforementioned Tiggy Wiggy and Antherm Alexander (second in the Cheveley Park) and she looks underpriced to me.



Grand National:
Godsmejudge £10w @ 25/1

1000 Guineas:
High Celebrity £15w @ 12/1  

Cheltenham Festival - Day 4

                                                                      Kicking King - 2005


    The Cheltenham Festival, it never ceases to amaze. I'd pretty much written off the bet I placed in November on Uxizandre for the Ryanair. He was disappointing in his last two races but the decent ground he had today really suited him and AP rode a cracker. Thankfully I didn't lay off my stake.

    I'm only involved in the two races tomorrow but have multiple arrows in both events. In the Albert Bartlett my initial thought when getting involved was that both Irish horses at the top of the market were woefully underpriced. Black Hercules hasn't had a run since December and No More Heroes looks a Don Cossack chasing type to me. I'm happy to take them on with the local horses.
Value at Risk ran on really well showing a tremendous attitude on trials day over too short a trip and I just think his liking for the track and his battling qualities give him a decent shout tomorrow. He's a horse with boundless scope and I expect a big run. I have similar thoughts about Blaklion whose form was given a nice boost by Parlour Games in the Neptune. My affinity for Nick Williams stable means I cannot let Tea for Two run without going backed. He's actually a lot longer in the market now than he was when I took a price but the big field will help. He'll outrun his odds for sure.

    The Gold Cup looks more open to me than the World Hurdle. I've gone off Boston Bob since backing him a while back but I think Smad Place will absolutely love the test. He jumps, he stays and a decent pace will really suit. I'm not sure he's classy enough to win but he has excellent place claims.
As for the race as a whole, Silviniaco Conti is starting to look half backable at 5/1 (he'll certainly trade shorter in running) but Djakadam is horrendously short. He won a handicap off 145 last time out and is now around 7/1 - completely mental. I'm not a layer by nature but will consider a place lay if I can trade at around 2/1. As for the rest, I think it's anyone's race. If it rains Many Clouds must have a good chance and the same comment applies to Coneygree. If it stays dry, who knows? It should be fascinating.

    I'll be back next week with my Post Festival thoughts, focusing on my poor non-runner count and a sea change in how I'll approach future Festivals.



Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle:
Value at Risk £35w @ 125/10 and £10ew @ 105/10 (lost)
Blaklion £10w @ 14/1 (lost)
Blaklion £12.50ew free bet @ 12/1 via Apache Stronghold
Tea for Two £10w @ 25/1 and £5ew @ 20/1 (lost)

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £25 NR
Taquin Du Seuil £15 NR
Wonderful Charm £5 NR
Boston Bob £10ew @ 20/1 (lost)
Smad Place £5ew @ 25/1 and £15pl @ 7/1 (lost)

(-94.25)

Cheltenham Festival - Day 3

                                                                     Noble Prince - 2011


    Today was pretty terrible for me. First Champagne Fever being pulled out of the Queen Mother and then King's Palace was very disappointing when folding tamely in the RSA. He made a bad mistake at the last ditch but would never have beaten Don Poli in any event. It didn't help that he had a horse who would have been better off in one of the handicaps upsides him most of the way.

    Up until Tuesday I didn't have a position in the JLT but I did mention that I was coming round to Apache Stronghold in one of my ante-post entries last week. I've backed him in three of his four races this season and although he stayed on strongly last time out in the Flogas at Leopardstown he was scratchy at a few of his fences and didn't travel that great either. My worry was that he'd struggle at Cheltenham but looking back at that last race it's noticeable that he jumped better towards the end of the contest and I think there's a fair chance a better pace will suit him and of course Don Poli's win today was a nice form boost.  I've used my second free bet via the Supreme on him and used Paddy Power for another bet as they return your stake for another free bet if your selection is second or third - a nice concession given the tough opposition. Apache Stronghold is closely matched with Valseur Lido but I feel the fact that he could beat the Mullins animal the last time they met despite the way he travelled and the jumping issues suggests he is the better horse. I fear Ptit Zig more than Vautour who is a shocking price. The Nicholls horse looks a good jumper (last race apart) and has form on the track.

    My only remaining interest in the World Hurdle is a small each way double involving Monksland. He'll like the ground, ran well behind Simonsig a few years back now in the Neptune and has an outside chance. The race looks a nightmare though and doesn't interest me from a punting standpoint. A comment that also applies to the Ryanair. I have a poor bet on Uxizandre still on the books and I might leave it but I also might trade it in running (he's a front runner so should be shorter at some stage.)


JLT Novices' Chase:
Apache Stronghold £25 free bet @ 11/2 via L'ami Serge
Apache Stronghold £25w @ 11/2 mbs (2nd)

Ryanair:
Cue Card £35 NR
Champagne Fever £10 NR
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1 (won)

World Hurdle:
More of That £30 NR

Festival Plate:
Colour Squadron £5 NR

£5ew Double:
Monksland(WH)(lost)Blaklion(AB) @ 16/1 & 14/1

(+80.75)

Cheltenham Festival - Day 2

                                                                          Top Cees - 1998

    A rather tumultuous days racing, especially for the layers. I didn't fair well either, Jezki finishing out of the frame being particularly painful. It's a long week however and I enjoyed the action overall. Highlight of the day was Annie Power bouncing to her feet after coming down at the last hurdle.

    King's Palace was a well beaten favourite in last year's Albert Bartlett when he also came down at the last and because of that disappointing effort he was attractively priced for the RSA at 20/1 before the season began. A price I was happy to take. He's unbeaten in three starts this season and is a general 7/2 shot tomorrow. Naturally it would make sense to worry about that run at the Festival but that was his first appearance on the racecourse since the previous December and that lack of a recent prep we've seen time and again is a major negative for a lot of horses, especially novices. He was iffy at a couple last month but overall I was delighted they got a run into him before his race tomorrow and whilst I do fear Don Poli greatly on my side I have a horse who jumps really well in the main and one who loves the track. The ground and Coneygree's absence are positives and on the tighter old course I think he'll have too much speed and class for the Mullins creature.

    At some stage or other of the season I've backed Champagne Fever in all three of the races he was entered in this week but at least the free bet I received when Douvan won the opener earlier on means my risk/reward scenario is on the value side of the ledger for the Queen Mother. Like King's Palace he's had a much better preparation for the Festival this season and his record at the track is outstanding. He has fewer questions to ask than the bulk of his opposition and I feel having a burner like Special Tiara setting the pace will really suit him. I wouldn't mind seeing Sprinter Sacre win, he's been a good horse for me, but I suspect he won't find much off the bridle and Sire De Grugy is probably a bigger danger. This is a better renewal that last season's though.



Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £10 NR

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £75w @ 87/10 (lost)

Queen Mother:
Simonsig £10 NR
Champagne Fever £20w @ 84/10 and £25 free bet @ 11/2 via L'ami Serge NR (FB refunded)


Win Double:
Tea For Two(Lanzarote)(won) King's Palace(RSA)(lost) £10 @ 6/1 & 5/1

£5ew Doubles:
Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)NR Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 6/1 & 25/1

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)NR Value at Risk(AB) @ 6/1 & 11/1

(+3,75)

Cheltenham Festival - Day 1

                                                                         Kelami - 2005


    Here we go again, the best four days of the year. I'll start from the top, up until the weekend I had no position at all in the Supreme but the concessions offered by three different layers - money back as a freebie if your selection returns nothing by two of them and the same if Douvan wins by Powers means you kind of have to get involved. I mentioned Shaneshill in my last entry and I've gone for L'ami Serge as well. It's simply a value play on my part as the worse case scenario is I drop a pony if neither of the front two win the race and my potential return if Nicky's scores is £166, so I effectively have a little over 13/2 about a 3/1ish chance. That'll do for me. Douvan looked a bit of a monster last time out but this test is such a different level for him and he's way too short.

    The Arkle is pretty much summed up in one sentence - if Un De Sceaux stays on his feet he wins.
So I haven't much hope with Josses Hill but you never know, the fences are there to be jumped. I like Clarcam in the without fav market which I probably would tuck into but for my position on the race as a whole. Elliot's charge is a good jumper, travels well and the ground will suit him.

    Mendip Express might be my only bet in a handicap all week (unless Amore Alato runs in the Martin Pipe.)  I like this horse a lot, he ran an absolute stormer in the Becher Chase before the turn of the year and he's won at Cheltenham before. It's hard to say whether or not he's that well handicapped because he's still relatively unexposed over the fences but he gets 3lbs off his back tomorrow and he's a big strapping type who will carry the weight in any case. One or two bookies are paying five places as well.

    I'm so excited about the Champion Hurdle. I was last year and it ended up a damp squib thanks to a fatality (RIP Our Conor) so my main hope is an incident free renewal this time around. I'm still sweet on Jezki despite the mountain of hype building around Faugheen and it's hard to see him out of the frame. I'd like more pace in the race but the ground has come good for him and Faugheen won't get away with giving his hurdles a good kicking like he did in the Neptune last year, not against top class two milers like the selection, The New One and Hurricane Fly.

    Finally, a word about the top of the page. I'm introducing more life to the blog by inserting pics from now on and they're gonna be of horses I've won on in the past on the corresponding day. Kelami was a Francois Doumen trained chaser who won the William Hill Trophy in 2005. He'd run well in the race the previous year and had fallen down the handicap somewhat in the intervening twelve months and had no weight on his back that day.

    Good luck with your bets and whatever happens enjoy it.  


--
Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £12.50ew @ 12/1 mbs (2nd)
L'ami Serge £50w @ 100/30 mbs x 2 (lost)

Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1 (lost)

Festival Handicap Chase:
Mendip Express £5w @ 18/1 and £10ew @ 14/1 (5pl) (lost)

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £30ew @ 11/2 (lost)

£5ew Doubles:
Clarcam(Arkle w/out UDS)(lost)Mendip Express(Festival Handicap Chase) @ 9/2 & 14/1

Clarcam(Arkle w/out UDS)/(lost)Blaklion(AB) @ 7/1 & 12/1

Mendip Express(Festival Handicap Chase)(lost)Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 14/1 & 16/1

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)(lost)Monksland(World Hurdle) @ 6/1 & 16/1

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)(lost)Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 9/2 & 20/1

(+103.75)

Cheltenham - Final Ante-Post

    I've finished my ante-post list for the Festival and the staking is down a tad this season, mainly due to Victor Chandler stopping their non-runner free bet concession. I've added another couple of each way doubles today after some chilled out Sunday morning form study.

    Clarcam's own arse was handed to him on a plate by Un De Sceaux last time out but he travelled and jumped well until Ruby pressed the gas pedal as they entered the straight and I think he's overpriced in the without favourite market. Vibrato Valtat is the obvious danger but he's had a lot of racing this season and I have a hunch he's due a poor run. Whatever, if UDS wins Clarcam has to finish outside the first four for for my bet to be a loser and I struggle to see that happening.

    A lot of my focus this morning was on the Albert Bartlett where I feel Black Hercules is a sort of default position favourite and No More Heroes is short enough in the market also. With that in mind there is value amongst the double figure brigade and whilst Martello Tower did tempt me I've come down on the side of Blaklion. I was impressed with the way he battled back in the Challow over too short a distance against classy opposition and Ladbrokes seem too long on him at 14/1. Value at Risk is my main fancy for the race but Twister's tough hurdler is an admirable back up. The AB is a good race for a proper scraper and both my horses have that quality in abundance.




--
Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £12.50ew @ 12/1 NRNB mbs

Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Festival Handicap Chase:
Mendip Express £5w @ 18/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £30ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £10w @ 14/1

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £75w @ 87/10

Queen Mother:
Champagne Fever £20w @ 84/10

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10w @ 25/1 and £5ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Value At Risk £25w @ 132/10 and £10w @ 11/1 NRNB
Value At Risk £5ew @ 12/1 NRNB
Blacklion £10w @ 14/1 NRNB

Gold Cup:
Boston Bob £10ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1


Win Doubles:
Tea For Two(Lanzarote)(won)/King's Palace(RSA) £10w @ 6/1 & 5/1



£5ew Doubles:
Clarcam(Arkle w/out UDS)/Mendip Express(Festival Handicap Chase) @ 9/2 & 14/1 NRNB

Mendip Express(Festival Handicap Chase)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 14/1 & 16/1 NRNB

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)/Monksland(World Hurdle) @ 6/1 & 16/1 NRNB

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 9/2 & 20/1 NRNB

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 6/1 & 25/1 NRNB

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)/Value at Risk(AB) @ 6/1 & 11/1 NRNB

Monksland(World Hurdle)/Blacklion(AB) @ 16/1 & 14/1 NRNB

£128 lost on Non-Runners

Cheltenham - 3 days out

    I wasn't gonna get involved in the Supreme this season as I have no strong views on the race, but a couple of bookies are offering punters their money back if your horse loses so it makes little sense to not bet on the race with a concession like that. I do like Shaneshill, he acts on the track and will be much more at home in a decently run race on good ground than he was at Navan in December when No More Heroes bested him on deep ground. I backed him shortly after that contest for the Neptune which looks like money down the drain now and the fact that he hasn't run at all during 2015 is a big negative. He's the only one I could pick out in the opener at the odds however.

    I had a Twitter rant earlier on this evening when I returned home from work and discovered that Colour Squadron had been pulled from the Plate by his trainer but left in the JLT, a terrible decision.
He'll be outclassed in the race he now runs in but had a decent chance in the handicap - a headscratcher for me. I've been mulling the JLT over a lot during the last few days and have gone from fancying Valseur Lido for the race based on his slick jumping to coming round to Apache Stronghold, a horse I've backed a number of times this season. His win in the Flogas, whilst high class, also came with some question marks attached with regards to his Festival chances. He was awkward at a number of fences and didn't travel that well - not traits you want when it comes to a hot Cheltenham race. But I feel that his jumping did improve towards the end of that race when the pace hotted up and there is a chance that the better gallop they'll go next Thursday will be a help rather than a hindrance. I certainly think he'll be available at bigger odds than 11/2 nearer the off so will hold off for now but it's fairly certain I'll be involved at some stage.

    Three days to go, excited.




--
Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £12.50ew @ 12/1 NRNB mbs

Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Festival Handicap Chase:
Mendip Express £5w @ 18/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £30ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £10w @ 14/1

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £75w @ 87/10

Queen Mother:
Champagne Fever £20w @ 84/10

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10w @ 25/1 and £5ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Value At Risk £25w @ 132/10 and £10w @ 11/1 NRNB
Value At Risk £5ew @ 12/1 NRNB

Gold Cup:
Boston Bob £10ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1


Win Doubles:
Tea For Two(Lanzarote)(won)/King's Palace(RSA) £10w @ 6/1 & 5/1



£5ew Doubles:
Mendip Express(Festival Handicap Chase)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 14/1 & 16/1 NRNB

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)/Monksland(World Hurdle) @ 6/1 & 16/1 NRNB

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 6/1 & 25/1 NRNB

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)/Value at Risk(AB) @ 6/1 & 11/1 NRNB





£128 lost on Non-Runners

Cheltenham - 6 days out

    Today's news that Cue Card misses the Festival was a hammer blow and brings my non-runner count over the ton marker now. In hindsight I didn't really need to top up on him for the Ryanair having already procured 16/1 about him actually winning at the meeting. Both this loss and the More of That one will have to go down in the lesson learned camp for future Festivals. Single figure prices no matter how juicy looking have to have that possibility that a horse might not make it to the races factored into them.

    The only addition to my portfolio since my last entry is Colour Squadron in the Festival Plate on Thursday. This horse has a somewhat justified reputation as a bit of a dog and is a maiden over fences but much his best form has come in big field handicaps on this course and he is only 2lbs higher in the ratings than he was when second to the high class Ballynagour in the same race last year. He will definitely outrun odds of 20/1.

    I'm relatively happy with my team, King's Palace is my main hope but I'm also very sweet on Jezki and Value at Risk. Just counting the hours now.



--

Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Festival Handicap Chase:
Mendip Express £5w @ 18/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £25ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £10w @ 14/1

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £75w @ 87/10

Queen Mother:
Uxizandre £15ew @ 16/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £20w @ 84/10

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1

Festival Plate:
Colour Squadron £5w @ 25/1

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10w @ 25/1 and £5ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Value At Risk £15w @ 14/1 and £10w @ 11/1 NRNB

Gold Cup:
Boston Bob £10ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1


Win Doubles:
Tea For Two(Lanzarote)(won)/King's Palace(RSA) £10w @ 6/1 & 5/1



£5ew Doubles:
Mendip Express(Festival Handicap Chase)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 14/1 & 16/1 NRNB

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)/Monksland(World Hurdle) @ 6/1 & 16/1 NRNB

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)/Rock on Ruby(World Hurdle) @ 11/2 & 8/1 NRNB

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 6/1 & 25/1 NRNB

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)/Value at Risk(AB) @ 6/1 & 11/1 NRNB

Colour Squadron(Festival Plate)/Value at Risk(AB) @ 20/1 & 10/1 NRNB




£123 lost on Non-Runners