Ante-Post

    A poor week at York overall but I was pleased with Pallasator. I think his wide draw did for him ultimately in the Ebor and I still think there's a good race in him, maybe the November Handicap.

    On the ante-post front the next big race over here is the Sprint Cup at my local track and last year's winner returned from a two month break on Saturday when running well under a penalty in a Group 3 at the Curragh. I would expect there to be cut in the ground come race day and 10/1 about Gordon Lord Byron is a very nice price at this stage. This is even more the case considering the doubts about Slade Power's participation. If he fails to make the event I would expect GLB to start around 9/2.

    Over in Japan on Sunday Harp Star and Gold Ship fought out a thrilling finish to the Sapporo Kinen, a Group 2 over 10f. Gold Ship will be three pounds better off come Arc day in Longchamp come October and I think there is mileage in him at 20/1. He tends to get well behind in his races but I think connections wouldn't employ such tactics in a race like the Arc. My thoughts on the race in general are that Sea the Moon is very solid for it if a bit short at around 5/1. I can't have Treve and don't like Taghrooda or Australia either. Treve has had no sort of season at all, Taghrooda will have had the wrong prep for the race if she gets there and Australia's trainer always over races his 3yos and I personally don't think he'll ever win it with a horse of that age unless he managed to get one of a Sea the Stars kind of level.

    Finally I've taken a bit of 20/1 about the William Haggas trained Mange All for the Cambridgeshire. As a 3yo rated 92 there is a pretty good chance he won't get in the race but I'll take that chance at the odds. This horse was most impressive to my eyes when powering home under strong pressure in a good handicap at Ascot over a mile recently and being out of a Montjeu mare he should stay further, but on his last try over further he was way too free in front and got tired. The annual Cambridgeshire cavalry charge will be right up his street then and I note he is entered up at the weekend probably in an effort to get a penalty and more chance of a run at Headquarters. Fingers crossed he gets in as I believe he'd have a great chance.

Sprint Cup:
Gordon Lord Byron £15w @ 10/1

Cambridgeshire:
Mange All £15w @ 20/1

Arc:
Flintshire £10w @ 41/1
Gold Ship £10w @ 20/1

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Arkle:
Josses Hill £35w @ 106/10

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil £10w @ 26/1

York - 23rd Aug

 

    Urgh, I shouldn't have opposed Sole Power today, it's something I've done a number of times over the last couple of years and he's burnt me nearly every time. I suppose the brevity of my post yesterday evening was almost an indication of what a bad idea it was.

    Saturday's action is all about Pallasator. I had him in mind for the Ebor after his very eye catching first run of the season in the Old Newton Cup last month. I backed him at 14/1 as soon as odds were released for the race and although his subsequent win later in July at Ascot wasn't ideal both for the weight he carries tomorrow and his price (which fell through the roof) it did indicate that he was a horse of some ability given the trip that day and size of the field were hardly ideal. I'm not bothered about the big weight he carries tomorrow as he is a very big, tall, strong horse who will carry it. In many ways he reminds me of Yavana's Pace, a very smart stayer who won the 1998 November Handicap off 105 on really soft ground. That horse was built on similar lines to Pallasator and I'm hoping for a similar result tomorrow.

    Having 14s ante-post (I've topped up a little this evening) about a 4/1 poke means I'm well ahead on the race and so I've had a cover bet on Mighty Yar who looks the main danger. He has nice course form, was beaten by a group horse last time out and should relish this step up in trip.

Ebor Handicap:
Pallasator £40w @ 91/10 (4th)
Might Yar £25w @ 9/1 (lost)
Havana Cooler/Josses Hill (Arkle) £10w dbl @ 10/1 and 10/1 (balloted out, bet now a single on Josses Hill)

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York - 22nd Aug

    The July Cup aside I've backed Hot Streak in all his races this season and I think tomorrow's conditions - a flat 5f with some cut in the ground (it's raining nicely right now over there) are his optimum and so he rates a decent enough bet at 15/2 for the Nunthorpe. Nothing much to say about this race because although I'm keen on the selection I worry that Sole Power might be pulled if the ground softens too much thus ruining the race as a betting event. We'll have to see.

Nunthorpe:
Hot Streak £40w @ 15/2 (lost)

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York - 21st Aug

    I have a suspicion that I left it a little late putting Gabrial's Kaka into my tracker. He went into it after his fast finishing second in a handicap at Haydock in May rather than before his win in his previous race. But he's been a most consistent horse this season and although he doesn't look that well handicapped off 103 he does get a claimer on when he runs in the 3.05 at York tomorrow and at 12/1 in a big field with four places being paid he's an easy horse to back. I was on him in the Hunt Cup when he received a poor ride from Spencer but left him alone when he ran next at Sandown. He was anchored at the back in a fast run race that day and flashed home late and fast to grab third. For sure the race was run his way but he struck me as a candidate for the Cambridgeshire that day and this mile with it's long straight will suit him. If he runs to form he surely hits the frame.

Clipper Logistics Handicap:
Gabrial's Kaka £25ew @ 12/1 (lost)

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York - 20th Aug

    Two cracking races on tomorrow's card that opens the four day Ebor Festival and whilst I think Australia and Kingston Hill are solid and hard to oppose I believe Snow Sky is a tad overpriced in the latter's Great Voltigeur. Normally when I have my eye on a 7 or 8/1 shot I'd be looking to go after the favourite but in this case its the two horses priced between Kingston Hill and the selection that make this a tidy betting market. The Cumani trained Postponed and Granddukeoftuscany, a creature from the Ballydoyle factory, are both shorter than Snow Sky and it's the usual case of potential being valued above form on display here and I love taking those type horses on normally. I expect York's long straight to suit my horse and he probably rates a bit better than the bare form of his Gordon Stakes win last time out at Goodwood as he got very warm and colty in the paddock and drifted in price. Like I said at the start Kingston Hill is quite solid at the top of the market and for that reason my bet is of the each way variety.

    The Juddmonte is one of my favourite races of the season and I have seen a few renewals in person. I expect Australia to win despite his trainers comments about him not being 100% fit but it wouldn't surprise me if Telescope gave him a close race. For all that Taghrooda was very impressive in the King George I was a tad disappointed in Telescope that day and I expect a better run tomorrow as like Snow Sky the track will suit him (he won the Voltigeur last year of course.) That being said I'd want better than 11/2 to tempt me.

Great Voltigeur Stakes:
Snow Sky £20ew @ 8/1 (2nd, rule 4)

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Newbury and Ripon - 16th Aug

    Overall today's racing looks very trappy and I'm not overly keen on anything but for smallish stakes I'm taking a chance on Pether's Moon in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury and one of my tracker horses, Duke Cosimo, who runs at Ripon.

    Pether's Moon ran better than the bare result suggested last time out at Goodwood and he's a quirky one whom first time blinkers might help today. He's far from nailed on but I think 6/1 is fair value given the opposition is stacked full of horses I want to be against. I backed Red Cadeaux in this last season and although he doesn't carry a beaucoup penalty this time around he's eight now and I don't like the look of his form this year - I think he might have had enough. He's less of a dodgepot than Seal of Approval though who was awful last time at Haydock. She is vastly overrated through her win in a very weak Group 1 for fillies at Ascot last Autumn. Somewhat has fewer negatives than those two animals and is feared but like I said, 6/1 about an in form animal like Pether's Moon in a weakish Group 3 like this is worth a go for smaller stakes

    Duke Cosimo has been a bit disappointing since he went into my tracker back in May (luckily I must have missed the email about his entry last time out at Haydock) but he looks well drawn today in the compensation race for the Great St Wilfrid's and has an each way chance.

Geoffrey Freer Stakes/William Hill Trophy Handicap:
Pether's Moon/Duke Cosimo £10ew dbl @ 6/1 and 11/1 (lost)

Geoffrey Freer Stakes:
Pether's Moon £20w @ 6/1

EDIT:
    As a postscript to today's bets, I must stop fecking about with doubles on days where I don't fancy anything enough for a proper wager. Duke Cosimo won today and my previous double this season in mid July on Triple Threat at Newbury and Bracelet in the Irish Oaks went similarly when the former was unplaced and the latter won at 10/1. In future reduced stakes singles will be the way to go.

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Ante-Post

    The period between the end of Glorious Goodwood and the Ebor Festival at York is one of the quieter punting times for me and although I haven't had any bets in the last week or so I've been watching a fair amount of racing and thinking ahead to the Jumps season. Losing my job on the railway at the start of the year has had a really beneficial effect on my betting, it's sort of concentrated my mind and made me focus on where I do well and where I don't and I've eliminated the bets that don't work for me. Watching lower grade racing in an attempt to obtain tracker horses has been the big positive this summer and I will continue to do this in the winter, something I haven't really done in the past. Although I prefer the jumps my winter betting strategy has always revolved around Cheltenham and whilst that Festival will continue to be enormously important to me I'd like to just watch more action and pick up horses to follow. I think the reason I've always nixed the idea of watching lower grade stuff is the thought that soft ground handicaps always finish with horses strung out over large distances. There seems no reason not to give it a go though.

     I got in early on Pallasator for the Ebor itself and I'm in a good position with his current odds looking very short at around 4/1. It's a competitive race obviously but I thought it prudent to add one of his biggest rivals and I expect a big run from Havana Cooler who ran a cracking race at Goodwood last time out. That course didn't seem to suit the horse that much as he wandered under pressure and the long straight at York will be far more up his street, as it will Pallasator of course.

    As you can see from the bottom of the page I'm very keen on Josses Hill for the Arkle and I'll be putting him in doubles throughout the remainder of the flat and into the winter. If he takes to fences like I expect him to I want to be in position for a huge pay-out in March.

Ebor:
Pallasator £20w @ 14/1
Havana Cooler £10w @ 11/1
Havana Cooler/Josses Hill (Arkle) £10w dbl @ 10/1 and 10/1

Arc:
Flintshire £10w @ 41/1

----
Arkle:
Josses Hill £25w @ 108/10

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil £10w @ 26/1

Goodwood and Thirsk - 2nd Aug

    The bet of the day is Wilde Inspiration in the 4.15 at Thirsk. I backed him last time out over a mile at Chester when he was taken (somewhat unwisely in my view) to the inside from his wide draw even though it was only a small field handicap and had to go wide to make his challenge in the short straight. He ran on really well and although he went up two pounds for that effort he has a three pound claimer on this afternoon and there is no doubt in my opinion that he has a race in him somewhere. There's been rain at the track and this is a furlong shorter than at Chester but he went into my tracker after his unlucky in running second at Doncaster in May over 7f and he has won with cut. A lot of my notebook horses have run at minor meetings on big race days and have been priced lazily as a result (almost all of them were returned much shorter than than their early odds.) I expect him to be a fair bit shorter before the off.

    My other bet is the rather obvious Muthmir in the Stewards Cup. I thought this horse would be too short to back given his hugely impressive romp at York but he drifted to 8/1 on Thursday when he was perceived to be badly drawn. I only had a tenner on at that price as I thought the price might hold in a huge betting event but unfortunately I've only been able to top up at a little over 5/1. For that reason I haven't had the full wedge on and have placed him in a double with Wilde Inspiration.

Stewards Cup:

Muthmir £15w @ 7/1 (lost)

Peter Bell Memorial Handicap:

Wilde Inspiration £40w @ 6/1 (won)

Above two in a £10 double @ 5/1 and 11/2

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