27/06/2014

Newcastle and Newmarket - 28th June

    A big day tomorrow with two of my tracker horses in action and my biggest bet of the year going on the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle.

    I'm in a fantastic position with Angel Gabrial having initially taken 14s and then 10/1. Pique Sous was the favourite when the market was formed for the race on Monday but he wasn't declared at the 48hr stage. Everything went wrong for the selection in the Chester Cup in May when he was last early on and was asked to make headway around the outside of the field 4f out. He looked like winning in the straight but hung under pressure and was caught close him. Given the amount of energy the horse expended just getting to the lead the fact that he went so close to winning was a huge effort and I think he has stacks in hand of the handicapper. With a three pound claimer on tomorrow he is effectively only a couple of pounds higher and rates a good bet even at the 7/1 he is trading at now. I have topped up this evening.

    My other bet is Starlight Serenade in the last on July course. I've backed this filly twice already this season and her win at Goodwood towards the end of May suggests she is still improving and this mile with it's uphill finish will really suit her. She's won on good ground and her sire was a proper fast ground beast so underfoot conditions shouldn't present any difficulties.

Northumberland Plate:
Angel Gabrial £20ew @ 14/1 and £50w @ 82/10 (won)

EBF Stallions Fillies' Handicap
Starlight Serenade £40w @ 5/1 (lost)

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24/06/2014

Northumberland Plate

    I've been eagerly awaiting prices for this race for a while. I mentioned Angel Gabrial last week as the number one horse on my tracker at the moment and he has held that position ever since his incredibly eye-catching run in the Chester Cup. I expected him to be around 8/1 for this weekend's race so the 14/1 that is freely availble is a gift. These inflated odds are mainly explained by the shortness of Pique Sous in the market. That horse ran a cracker last week at the royal meeting but steps back in trip by six furlongs and will find these hardy handicappers a lot tougher to crack. I will write more about my feelings on the race at the weekend.

Northumberland Plate:
Angel Gabrial £20ew @ 14/1 and £20w @ 10/1



21/06/2014

Royal Ascot - Day 5

 

    Since losing my job on the railway in January and taking up Yoga at roughly the same time I seem to have calmed down a bit both in terms of day to day living and as a punter. A few years ago, just before I started this blog in fact, I backed Maljimar place only in the big handicap chase on day one of the Cheltenham Festival. Any proper racing fan knows what happened in that race, it was the scene of one of AP McCoy's finest ever rides aboad Wichita Lineman. I was sat at home shouting him home because I knew I would be second guessing myself to death if Maljimar had actually won the race. Fast forward to yesterday and my place only bet on Lesstalk in Paris in the Coronation Stakes and I had no feelings on her winning the race when it looked like she had a chance as she flashed down the outside of the field. I suppose it could be the realisation that I had the correct bet on her more than me being more chilled these days but the point stands.

    Onto the final day of the Royal meeting and I have a big priced fancy in the Diamond Jubilee but less of a decision this time as I already have a very small position on Astaire at a mammoth looking 26/1 ante-post. I've gone with topping up at 10/1 and having a wee place bet as well. The bet overall looks small but it is a trappy race and I can't be going in all guns blazing on a Jamie Spencer ridden horse the week he's had.

    The race looks a fascinating renewal, although less competitive than normal. Slade Power is a worthy favourite and will be tough to beat, he's very consistant and his win first time out at the Curragh in May gives him a form edge over Astaire. The Ballydoyle contender is a 3yo and is hard to read but shouldn't be shorter in the market than my selection. Aljamaheer is the buzz horse of the race and is actually challenging Slade Power for favouritism. I can't be having that and his poor price would be my angle into the race if I wasn't already on. I don't like milers/7f beasts stepping down in trip and although he was unlucky in his first attempt at this distance that was in a very average looking Group 3 at Newmarket and he is way underpriced for this. The rest of the field don't look anything special (Gordon Lord Byron excepted, but the ground is against that marvellous horse) but as we saw in the King's Stand shocks are more common place in sprints than in other Group 1 events over further. Astaire looks solid at 10/1, he ran a cracker first time out at York and should come on for the run. As I mentioned earlier Slade Power holds him on a line through Maarek but as a 3yo my selection has scope for progress and was better than the bare result that day on the Knavesmire as he was drawn 2 of 13 but ended up on the stands rail, covering more ground than the winner. 

    My other bet is Telescope in the Hardwicke. I think he's the best horse in the race and although he heads the market, 5/2 is a little too big. This overpricing is due to his two defeats thus far this campaign, but both of these runs were on soft ground, and both were efforts behind Noble Mission who has franked the form since in a Group 1 at the Curragh (form which itself was boosted by Magician's run on Wednesday.) The good to firm ground today will be right up Telescope's alleypipe and I expect him to win readily. Speaking of that Magician second, the £25 free bet token I received that day has been used on this race.

Hardwicke Stakes:
Telescope £40w @ 5/2 (free bet via Magician £25@5/2) (won)

Diamond Jubilee Stakes:
Astaire £15w @ 15/1 £15pl @ 11/4 (lost)

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20/06/2014

Royal Ascot - Day 4

    Today looks tricky and the only horse that even vaguely appeals is the Jean-Claude Rouget trained Lesstalk in Paris who runs in the Coronation Stakes. This is a race full of opposable fillies with the favourite having her first run of the season, Lightning Thunder possibly due for a break having taken in the English and Irish Guineas and Rizeena being a disappointment thus far this season. It's true my selection was also something of a disappointment in the Pouliches but I've read she was in season that day and so that run is easily forgotten. She took the Prix de la Grotte first time out but set a steady pace in front that day and I'm not hanging my hat on that form. What I am banking on is the hope that she starts confirming the impression she made in the Boussac last autumn and also that she improves for racing on a fast surface, ground she should love given she is by Cape Cross. It's a trappy race I haven't a good record in and I've written on here numerous times of my poor record with big priced runners in group races so I'm just having a place bet and have had 4.5 matched on the machine earlier today.

Coronation Stakes:
Lesstalk in Paris £40pl @ 7/2 (2nd)

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18/06/2014

Royal Ascot - Day 3

    A slightly frustrating day overall although I was pleased with my Magician bet and have a free bet to place within the next week. Jamie Spencer was horrible on Gabrial's Kaka, dragging him towards the standside depite his draw and repeatedly getting into trouble. My one bet tomorrow is in the Britannia and thankfully he isn't riding him.

    Zarwaan is a 3yo I've already backed this season when he ran well in second behind Chatez in a valuable event at Haydock that looks solid from a form point of view. He was a touch outpaced early on in that race on the soft ground and was settled towards the rear as they entered the straight but he fair powered home in the last couple of furlongs and I think he's a smart colt. He was also second first time out and the horse that beat him that day at Newbury was runner-up in the Jersey earlier on today (front two clear) and I just think he's a very likeable horse who is handicapped well enough to win a decent race this season. He has also won on fast ground. I know long term the way to go is bet win only in these big handicaps but the Britannia is a bit different to the Hunt Cup and the Wokingham as a race for 3yos only so lord only knows what could be hiding towards the bottom of the weights and with five places paid and a decent draw I find it hard to see the horse out of the frame.

Britannia Handicap:
Zarwaan £25w £15pl @ 12/1 (5th)

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17/06/2014

Royal Ascot - Day 2

    Not too much damage done today with Hot Streak getting placed and how impressive was Kingman? That sort of performance is what flat racing is all about.

    I have a couple of bets lined up for tomorrow. In the main event I think Treve is vulnerable at odds-on and will take her on, especially as she has shortened noticeablywith a lot of favourites going in today. Initially I was looking at Mukhadram as he ran well in the Prince of Wales last season but the ground is riding fast and that brings Magician right into it. His best two runs last season, in the Irish 2000 Guineas and the Breeders Cup Turf, both took place on a firm surface and he's very backable at around 6/1. 3yo Arc winners who race on as older animals very rarely run to the same level of form they achieved in Paris - I believe the prep a typical French 3yo gets together with the favourable wfa they receive are advantageous factors they miss as 4yos and they just never look as good. Couple this with ground much faster than she'd have encountered in the past and it's easy to oppose Treve. I have backed Magician with the usual Hills concession (money back as a free bet if your selection is second.)

    I have a couple of Marwan Koukash owned creatures in my tracker at present and he loves a runner at Ascot almost as much as he does at Chester. With that in mind I was delighted to see that Angel Gabrial isn't running this week as I have him in mind for the Northumberland Plate where I will be going for a four figure plunge. Gabrial's Kaka however does have an entry, in the Hunt Cup at tea time tomorrow and at 20/1+ he rates a decent bet. He went into my tracker when second in a hot Haydock handicap towards the end of April. He was anchored at the back of the field that day in a not particularly strongly run race and had to come wide to make a challenge in the last furlong. He just failed to get up but was much better than the bare result and he has a big race in him. It's a hot event naturally and his draw worries me so there's an element of place insurance in my wager as winning the race his side but finding himself away from the key action is always a concern in such a big field.

EDIT: 18/6 13:17
    As ever with big meetings there is always a chance of something catching my eye in the morning because of a drift and that has happened in the Duke of Cambridge at 4.25. I can understand why a lot of punters prefer Integral over Esoterique today - the latter was race fit after two runs when they met in May yada yada, but the price differential (9/4,11/2 respectively) is daft now and I've backed the Fabre filly. She travelled so well that day at Newmarket but I think her stamina was giving out towards the end of the race and so a return to a mile, but one with a stiff finish, is ideal for her. Sky Lantern is feared but I've heard on the grapevine that she weighs more than Toronado so will probably need the race - like she did last season.

Prince of Wales's Stakes:
Magician £15w @ 64/10 and £25w @ 6/1 (mbs) (2nd, free bet to come)

Duke of Cambridge Stakes:
Esoterique £40w @ 11/2 (lost)

Royal Hunt Cup:
Gabrial's Kaka £20w @ 22/1 and £10ew @ 20/1 (5pl) (Spencered)

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16/06/2014

Royal Ascot - Day 1

    I think this could be a relatively quiet Ascot week for me. I have a couple of bets lined up for the first day but not too many after that. In the opener I have an each way position on Soft Falling Rain thanks to Dustin Johnson managing to place in the US Open at the weekend although it's not as good as it could have been as he tied for fourth with five other players meaning there's a dead heat deduction on what I have going on my Queen Anne selection. Toranado is obviously the likeliest winner of the race but he's been off the track since August and isn't an odds-on shot to my eyes.

    I didn't anticipate a bet in the King's Stand Stakes with it being such a stacked contest, but Paddy Power have enticed me in with their money back if your selection is second or third offer. I've backed Hot Streak in both his starts this season and at 4/1 he's worth another go with that place insurance. His win in the Temple at Haydock was very impressive and although Pearl Secret looked to be coming back at him towards the end of that race I think the selection won with a deal in hand that day. His jockey looked to be sizing up the opposition at one point before unleashing him and it's possible he let him go a tad early. He's a very exciting sprinter and also a course and distance winner. Sole Power and Shea Shea didn't really fight out the finish to this last season as they were on opposite sides of the track but they are both heavily respected. The South African runner is berthed in 2 this year with Hot Streak, Sole Power and Pearl Secret in 11, 8 and 7 respectively so potentially the draw could be a factor again.

    The St James's Palace Stakes isn't really a betting race although I think Night of Thunder should be closer in price to Kingman.

Queen Anne Stakes:
Soft Falling Rain £5ew dbl with Dustin Johnson (US Open) @ 12/1 and 35/1 (lost)

King's Stand Stakes:
Hot Streak £40w @ 4/1 (mbs) (3rd, money back)

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12/06/2014

Ante-Post

    Royal Ascot starts next Tuesday and my cupboard is pretty bare from an ante-post point of view. This is partly a reflection of mistakes I made in the past where I got a bit gung-ho in almost treating the meeting like a flat version of Cheltenham - which it is not, and partly the fact that I have a limited budget for big priced runners in conditions races on the flat because of my poor record with them. Up to now I have two bets; Astaire in the Diamond Jubilee and Soft Falling Rain in the Queen Anne, the latter as part of a double.

Queen Anne:
Soft Falling Rain £5ew dbl with Dustin Johnson (US Open) @ 12/1 and 35/1

Diamond Jubilee:
Astaire £5w @ 26/1

Arc:
Flintshire £10w @ 41/1

----
Arkle:
Josses Hill £20w @ 11/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil £5w @ 26/1



I'm not much of a football punter but love to have a go at the big tournaments and have set aside a ton for some bets at the World Cup:

Outright:
Argentina £20w @ 9/2
France £10w @ 25/1

Stage of Elimination:
France £10@ 56/10 (Semis)
England £10@ 36/10 (Q/F)
Ivory Coast £10@ 8/1 (Q/F)
Portugal £10@ 4/1 (Q/F)
Chile £10@ 12/5 (2nd Round)

Top Goalscorer:
Higuain £10@ 22/1

Top Man Utd Goalscorer:
Rooney £10@ 3/1






07/06/2014

Epsom - 7th June

    As I write it is tipping down at Epsom which is a shame as I was confident we'd see an improved effort from True Story with fast ground and 12f in his favour today compared to the conditions he faced in the Dante. I only have a small position on him and I will not be topping up with the ground set to be at best good to soft. I also have a compensatory position on Australia via a losing bet at York a couple of weeks ago. There is no evidence he wont act on soft but his trainer has pointed out he is a better horse on decent ground. I'm looking forward to the race but have no strong opinions on it now.

    I backed Ruler of the World for the Coronation Cup earlier in the week but he doesn't run after sustaining some kind of minor injury during a work session on Wednesday morning. I think Cirrus Des Aigles is very vulnerable at a short price over a trip further than ideal but can't find anything to beat him with Flintshire being a good ground animal. I'm leaving it alone.


Coronation Cup:
Ruler of the World £40w @ 5/2 (NR)

Derby:
Berkshire £10w @ 25/1 (NR)
True Story £15w @ 92/10 (lost)
(Free bet via Astaire: Australia £25@5/4) (won)

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05/06/2014

Epsom - 6th June

    In my entry earlier in the week I wrote that I didn't see much of any angle for a bet in the Oaks tomorrow and on the face of it I have gone against that in backing Taghrooda but she has drifted to a backable price now (7/2 on Monday into 9/2 in a place this evening.) She created a very good impression in winning the Pretty Polly over 10f at the Guineas meeting and although the form of that race has not worked out well I'm prepared to chance her over this 2f further trip. She's out of a mare who won over a mile and six so should relish this extra distance and ultimately the way I see this is that this is the Oaks, not the Arc - and so scope for improvement over the trip is more important that a fillies actual form up to this point in her career; something we saw with the likes of Snow Fairy and Dancing Rain amongst recent winners. I'm prepared to chance her at the price. I'm not convinced Marvellous will stay and the Weld silly in the same ownership as my selection looks quite leggy and I think may not act on the track.

Oaks:
Taghrooda £40w @ 9/2 bog :) (won) 

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03/06/2014

Ante-Post

    The Grey Gatsby's fine win in the Jockey Club on Sunday was a nice boost for the Dante form so my confidence in True Story for the Derby this coming Saturday was enhanced but the forecast rain is a worry and it looks a tough ask. I can't find any angle in the Oaks for a bet but have taken a position in the Coronation Cup. Ruler of the World has drifted to a backable price probably due to his owners selling a 50% share in him and the perception that that in some way is a knock on him as a racehorse. I don't buy that at all and think it's purely down to the fact that Coolmore probably have more Galileo's than they have staff. He's a course and distance winner who's class was proven when he ran a fine race in the Champion Stakes last October and I think the prices at the top of the market (Cirrus Des Aigles is 7/4, ROTW 5/2) are the wrong way round. The French gelding is in great form this season but is better at distances short of 12f. Flintshire is my Arc horse at this stage but if the rain arrives I doubt he'd run.

Coronation Cup:
Ruler of the World £40w @ 5/2

Derby:
Berkshire £10w @ 25/1
True Story £15w @ 92/10
(Free bet via Astaire: Australia £25@5/4)

Diamond Jubilee:
Astaire £5w @ 26/1

Arc:
Flintshire £10w @ 41/1

--
Arkle:
Josses Hill £20w @ 11/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1

01/06/2014

Chantilly - 1st June

    Bit of a late one today because my bet has only just been matched. The Andre Fabre trained Galiway has run twice this season over a mile against high class opponents and has performed with credit on both occasions but as a son of Galileo the 10f trip of the Prix du Jockey Club today will be more to his liking and although it looks a hella tough contest to bet on with so many unexposed types I think 3/1+ on him to place is worth taking. He is badly drawn but has the right man on board and I can see him flashing home late and fast.

Prix du Jockey Club:
Galiway £40pl @ 32/10 (lost)

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