31/05/2014

Haydock - 31st May

    One of the more mundane weekends of the season from a racing point of view but I've found a bet at my local tracks card. Cubanita seems overpriced in the Group 3 for fillies over just short of a mile and a half. She's a very strong traveller who looked set to go close last time out in the Yorkshire Cup before her stamina gave out and the trip and ground will suit her today. Astonishing looks to be her main rival but she was in behind when Cubanita won the John Porter first time out and I don't see why that filly is the same price as my choice - it might be a reflection of her effort at York and also because of who trains Astonishing. I've had 4.3 matched on the machine and have added an IR lay as her strong travelling nature should ensure her trading at much shorter odds during the race. I also have a little on at 3s with the usual money back concession from Hills on races that Channel 4 cover.

Pinnacle Stakes:
Cubanita £20w @ 3/1 mbs and £40w @ 33/10 (IR lay request £20 @ 9/4 not matched(lost)

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29/05/2014

Sandown - 29th May

    A good card this evening at Sandown, probably the best evening meeting of the entire flat season. Unfortunately it has little competition in that department, something that should be addressed. It's been chucking it down recently in the capital so the ground is soft virging on heavy and the Henry II stakes over two miles looks a trappy event given the conditions. I would think it'd be a race between Brown Panther and Tiger Cliff in normal circumstances but bad ground can bring horses together and I think Menorah can get involved. Aside from bumpers this will be his first run on the flat but he's a horse with a tremendous engine and really 25/1 severely underestimates his chance. I'm not going mad however as I've blogged before about my terrible record with long odds shots in conditions races.

Henry II Stakes:
Menorah £10ew @ 25/1 (lost)

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24/05/2014

Haydock - 24th May

    Today's action at Haydock is a bit tricky because of the mystery surrounding ground conditions. Despite rain last night and forecast rain during the meeting the going description is still good. I'm keen on Hot Streak in the Temple Stakes whatever the ground although prefer a bit of cut as that takes Sole Power out of the equation to a certain extent. The 9/2 I took before the five day decs looks good value now and I have topped up slightly this morning. I did mention that I might use Pearl Secret as cover and I have done so; both in single form and as part of a double with my other bet today, Zarwaan in the 3.45.

    I feel the ground is an issue with Zarwaan as it might stretch his stamina and although I'm happy enough with the odds I got on Monday this nagging concern that he'll be better over 7f stops me having a normal sized bet on him. That said he did stay on well first time out and the form of that race has been franked two or three times. He should go well.

Temple Stakes:
Hot Streak £40w @ 4/1 (won)
Pearl Secret £15w @ 41/10 (2nd)

Silver Bowl:
Zarwaan £15w @ 78/10 (2nd)

Pearl Secret/Zarwaan £10w dbl @ 4/1 and 7/1

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23/05/2014

Goodwood - 23rd May

    I'm giving another chance to Starlight Serenade who runs in the 5.10 at Goodwood. She actually ran a good race last Saturday and may have just been beaten by a horse who had finally come to herself (50/1 shot.) They pulled three lengths clear of the third and because she was entered for this on Monday she doesn't run off her new mark. I actually backed her last night at 9/1 but five horses have been pulled this morning because of the rain softened ground so any return will be subject to a beefy rule 4. The underfoot conditions aren't an issue as she first came to my attention with her run at Doncaster on soft. There's no question she's a well handicapped filly off 66 today (1lb ow)

Fillies' Handicap:
Starlight Serenade £15ew @ 9/1(Rule 4 30p) and £10w @ 52/10 (won)

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19/05/2014

Ante-Post

     Last week was a tad frustrating with three seconds from four bets placed but I'm feeling happy with my form and I have tightened up my strategy which was the main goal heading in. I've been eyeing up the Temple Stakes this Saturday ever since Guineas day when I backed Hot Streak in the Palace House Stakes. This horse is a very exciting sprinter and I expect him to reverse form with Sole Power given the scope he has for improvement at such a young age and of course being a couple of pounds better off at the weights helps as well. Sole Power was also race fit from Dubai whereas my horse was making his seasonal debut. I will probably cover with Pearl Secret nearer the day; he's a leggy type who will much prefer Haydock to the Rowley Mile.

     Another of my tracker horses is entered up in the Silver Bowl at the same meeting. Zarwaan stayed on really well first time out over 7f at Newbury in a race against a particularly well handicapped John Gosden 3yo. He went into the notebook immediately although I was slightly worried he had an entry in the Irish 2000 Guineas (speaking of the which; 24 hours after that effort Night of Thunder ran a similar eye catching race over the same course and distance.) I've taken a bit of 8/1 about him but have to be a bit careful as he is also entered up at Goodwood the same afternoon.

     The Derby is probably a wash out from a punting point of view with Australia looking bombproof but its only one race and there'll be plenty of opportunities as we approach Royal Ascot. I think we're in for an exciting flat season

Temple Stakes:
Hot Streak £30w @ 453/100

Silver Bowl Stakes:
Zarwaan £10w @ 8/1

Derby:
Berkshire £10w @ 25/1
True Story £10w @ 8/1
(Free bet via Astaire: Australia £25@5/4)

Diamond Jubilee:
Astaire £5w @ 26/1

Arc:
Flintshire £10w @ 41/1

--
Arkle:
Josses Hill £10w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1




 

17/05/2014

Newbury and Thirsk - 17th May

   The Scoop 6 has been the main theme of the last few Saturday's and I've had a go today albeit for a total stake of £2: Evident, Bronze Angel, Dorothy B, Hoofalong, Stomp and Lord Aeryn are the selections.

    I've had two bets today and after hitting the crossbar twice at York during the week with Astaire and Tac De Boistron I'm confident of a return - I feel in good form at present. The Lockinge at Newbury is an enticing looking betting race featuring as it does an even money shot who isn't the most consistant and in my opinion is a tad overrated anyway. Olympic Glory is a high class horse but Timeform had him rated the same as Dawn Approach last season and that just isn't right. I think his Marois run good as it was has been overrated and he had little to beat in the QEII on soft ground at Ascot. I was hoping Soft Falling Rain would line-up but instead I'm going for the horse he beat at Newmarket last September in a hot looking event.

   Montiridge plainly hated the ground at Sandown when second to Tulius on his seasonal debut. He travelled well that day but floundered and got tired late on. He has the action of a top of the ground horse and today's conditions will suit perfectly. I'm not in love with any of the opposition and I can't see him out of the first three.

   Starlight Serenade is one of my tracker horses and runs in the last at Thirsk. She's a 3yo filly who dwelt badly in the stalls first time out in a handicap at Doncaster before staying on really well for fourth place over 7f. She steps up to a mile today which should suit and her trainer is excellent with the fairier sex. I got a little bit of 11/2 last night and have topped up this morning.

Lockinge Stakes:
Montiridge £10ew @ 7/1 and £15w @ 72/10 (used as pacemaker)

17th June Handicap:
Starlight Serenade £40w @ 52/10 (2nd)

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15/05/2014

York - 16th May

   I was initially very disappointed with True Story's run in the Dante Stakes earlier today but on reflection I do believe we'll see a diferent animal at Epsom if he gets decent ground; so my bet isn't dead quite yet.

  The Yorkshire Cup headlines the last day of the Dante meeting and it looks a decent renewal. It's fairly rare for me to back a favourite but I did expect Tac De Boistron to be a warm order for this after his impressive win in the Sagaro at Ascot last time out and just his general form which is very much on an upward curve, so 4/1 is a price I am happy to take. His two closest rivals in the market are Gospel Choir and Cubanita and neither have run over more than a mile and a half before. The former actually shares favouritsm in a place or two and whilst his win at Newmarket earlier in the month was very taking it was a race run at a crawl and this test over two furlongs further and with more pace pretty much assured will push his stamina to the limit.

   I think the main danger could be Ahzeemah, a horse with no stamina issues - quite the opposite in fact. I think one or two layers have overfactored the penalty Tac De Boistron carries in the race just as they did with the front two in the Duke of York on Wednesday.

EDIT 16/5:  Paddy Power's money back if your selection is second or third is being offered in this race today. Tad De Boistron was 7/2 with that firm last night but has since drifted to 4s so I've topped up. I don't really want £80 on so have asked for £40 back on Betfair (IR at the same price.)

Yorkshire Cup:
Tac De Boistron £80w @ 4/1 (£40 mbs) (2nd, stake back and lay matched)

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13/05/2014

York - 14th May

   The Duke of York Stakes tomorrow features such an obvious bet at plainly inflated odds I genuinely think I might have missed something. The 3yo Astaire has high class form over the trip, is a course and distance winner, loves a bit of cut, and his Middle Park win last season has been franked already this season. So why is he 13/2 in a not particularly hot renewal? I can only think the 5lb penalty he carries for that Group 1 win at Newmarket and his run in the Greenham are to blame. The penalty is not ideal but it's probably overfactored into his odds, especially as precocious 3yos are advantaged by the wfa terms anyway this time of year over this sort of trip. And he plainly just didn't stay the 7f first time out; he's a sprinter pure and simple. As ever I'll take a concession if I can get one and I'll get a free bet if he's second.

Duke of York Stakes:
Astaire £40w @ 13/2 (mbs) (lost) (free bet of £25 placed on Australia - Derby @ 5/4)

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09/05/2014

Lingfield - 9th May

   A bit late with this entry given my horse runs in about ninety minutes but I had plumbing issues this morning and couldn't spare the time on the computer. I've been watching a lot more handicaps this season thus far and have a squad of three or four horses in my notebook. One of them runs today in the 3.05 at Lingfield and he is the Roger Charlton trained Stomp who was impressive enough in winnng a 6f handicap at Windsor last month. It wasn't a big field that day and they didn't go particularly fast and Stomp showed a nice turn of speed to win given he was anchored at the back throughout most of the race and had to come wide when making his effort. He went up 6lbs for a 2 length victory but that underestimates him and although the ground is a worry as that win was on soft they have had a certain amount of rain given the straight course has a soft stretch along part of if. I thought he'd be clear favoruite for the race but that honour belongs to a horse called Double Up who has had only one run in his life and that was a maiden. He could be a good thing but it's difficult to tell and I'm prepared to take my chances with a proven handicapper. My bet was placed last night before the price shortened.

Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap:
Stomp £30w @ 27/10 (won)

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08/05/2014

Chester - 8th May

   I wrote yesterday that I wasn't a fan of Chester and I probably wouldn't be having a bet there this week but that was before I saw the prices for today's Huxley Stakes. I was a backer of Ektihaam a couple of times last season, including at Royal Ascot when he slipped and unshipped his jockey in the Hardwicke - I think the single worst moment in a particularly poor year on the flat for me. I think Chester will suit his runnng style and the angle I have on the race is the market's overreaction to Noble Mission's win at Sandown last time out. Yes he was impressive but most of his rivals hated the very soft ground that day and I believe both Ektihaam and Telescope (who both receive 3lbs today) are just better racehorses. The former's win at Ascot last May and Telescope's victory in the Voltigeur at the Ebor meeting are both some way better than the pick of Noble Mission's form.

   This is Ektihaam's first race since July but he ran well first time last season when running Al Kazeem reasonably close and 3/1 with the concession of a free bet if he runs second is fair value. I do respect Telescope and he's the main reason for taking this concession. If the rain had stayed away from the track last night I probably would have used him as direst cover.

Huxley Stakes:
Ektihaam £40w @ 3/1 (mbs) (lost)

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07/05/2014

Ante-Post

   A couple of winners to start the season off is just the ticket after a year or so of unprofitable betting and this is a really important season for me. I was very shoddy on the flat last season and I did mention on the run up to Cheltenham that I do well traditionally in certain prices ranges depending on the sort of race I'm betting on and that I call these my wheelhouse bets. One area I am horrible on is big priced (9/1+) horses in conditions races on the flat. Including last season from the year 2000 my profit/loss on these type of bets is minus over £3000. Why this is I have one of two ideas; I think with shorter priced animals I'm looking to oppose favourites and pick out the most solid opponent on form. With the longer odds shots I'm probably just hitting and hoping if you will. Look at the Champion Stakes last year when I backed Morandi and Triple Threat at 16/1+ neither were Group 1 winners and in a strong field they were poor bets. So I'm really going to tighten up this season and largely ignore those types of bets. I say largely because there are exceptions to the rule. A lot of Classic races and the Arc are more competitve than most group races and I have decided to give myself a budget of £100 for possible bets in those races. This ensures losses are kept to a minimum, especially with that £3G figure in mind.

   I'm between jobs at the moment so money is tight and stakes are lower than normal and I think that will help. I was on a good wage up until recently and so the money probably didn't mean as much as it should. I also think this blog was a bit of a factor in some of the errant bets that were being placed. I enjoy the updates leading up till Cheltenham and subconciously I think I wanted the same vibe to surround Royal Ascot. The ante-post bets I placed before last year's meeting - Gordon Lord Byron in the Golden Jubilee, Elusive Kate in the Queen Anne and Reckless Abandon in the King's Stand were all placed at 10/1+ and I truly believe without the desire to update the blog those bets wouldn't have been made.

   Chester is the main feature this week but it isn't a course I like and I very much doubt I'll be having a bet. I did back True Story for the Derby on Monday for a couple of reasons. One; Australia's run in the Guineas was impressive enough to probably ensure we are gonna have a small field for the race and True Story was breathtaking in the Feilden at the Craven meeting so assuming that he wins the Dante (he really should) he'll probably be the only feasable alternative to the favourite. Two, I must confess that having written that Miss France would have been shorter for the 1000 Guineas on Sunday than 5/1 if she'd not run in a trial that when she drifted to 13/2 I did put her in a small double with the Godolphin colt for Epsom. This won't count on the blog though with it being a last minute bet.

Derby:
Berkshire £10w @ 25/1
True Story £10w @ 8/1

Arc:
Flintshire £10w @ 41/1

---
Arkle:
Josses Hill £10w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1




03/05/2014

Newmarket - 4th May

   Despite the disappointing way the field split in the 2000 Guineas today didn't spoil the race as I thought it might at the time and there were no hard luck stories. Kingman didn't lose much in defeat the way I look at it. He dwealt in the stalls and his jockey may have gone a tad too soon but was beaten by the better horse on the day. The funny thing about Night of Thunder's run in the Greenham is that if that had been a handicap he'd have gone right into my notebook. It looked a good edition and Australia will be incredibly hard to beat at Epsom.

   The fillies version tomorrow looks wide open and looking over the field it's hard to summon much enthusiasm for a possible wager. I don't think Rizeena will stay the clip they'll go and the two Ballydoyle fillies don't seem that well fancied by the lads which isn't a great sign. Miss France would be shorter if she'd not had a trial but as we saw today shocks can happen in big field races this time of year and I'm leaving the race alone.

   The Group 3 Dahlia Stakes earlier on in the card features a short priced filly in Integral who is the most likely winner but quotes of even money are excessive. Yes she looked a filly of some promise last year but it's possible she might need this first time out and I think her run in the Sun Chariot here in the Autumn has been a tad overrated. She was second to Sky Lantern that day but they went a fearsome pace and and the front two had the run of the race. I'm taking her on with Esoterique who has had a couple of runs this season and should be primed for this. She's a filly who was a tad disappointing after her second in the Pouliches but apart from a midfield run behind Treve in the Diane where she pulled quite hard all her runs have been over a mile and she's bred to stay further. In short this 9f trip tomorrow will suit and 5/1 overstates her chance.

Dahlia Stakes:
Esoterique £40w @ 5/1 (won)

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02/05/2014

Newmarket - 3rd May

 

   2000 Guineas day is one of my favourite Saturday's of the racing year and tomorrow's renewal of the first classic of the season looks a really good one. I've posted my thoughts on the race a couple of times in recent posts so don't see the need to add much else apart from that I've taken a bit of the 9/1 Ladbrokes were going earlier about Toormore. The draw could be interesting as well. Kingman is berthed in stall 1, Toormore in 14 and the Spanish horse Noozhoh Canarias is in stall 8. If the field split and Kingman isn't in the latter's group it could be difficult for him.

   The supporting card is decent. Trading Leather is short but should win the Jockey Club and the Palace House Stakes is an interesting renewal. From a betting point of view Pearl Secret looks the sort of flashy type with a high action who won't appreciate the dip or the ground so is one to take on. However, he was actually pulled out of last year's race because of the ground and I think that may happen again. It's not the sort of race I want to bet in at this stage with such a big rule 4 possibility but I like the 3yo Hot Streak. He has tons of pace and ran well in the Middle Park here last October. Sole Power will be a tough nut to crack but I'm not 100% sure he likes Newmarket either despite his win in this last year. That was a poor renewal in comparison though and he'll be too short if Pearl Secret is pulled. We'll have to see what happens in the morning.

EDIT 3/5:
No news on whether or not Pearl Secret runs or not in the 2.40 but with the small amount of rain Newmarket had earlier in the week and the water that was put on the track the day before I think he will take his chance so I have backed Hot Streak with Paddy Power who are offerering an enticing money back special on this race (stake back if your horse finished second or third)

Palace House Stakes:
Hot Streak £40w @ 6/1 (MBS) (3rd, money back)

2000 Guineas:
Toormore £40w @ 82/10 (lost)

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