27/01/2014

Trials Postscript

What a great weekend of racing we've just witnessed with Cheltenham clues aplenty.

Gotta start with yesterday's Irish Champion Hurdle. The race developed into something of a sprint from around the last flight and I was impressed with how much Our Conor had progressed since his last run. The way the race was run was right up Hurricane Fly's street and I'm pretty confident Our Conor can reverse the form on better ground in six weeks. As a ten year old I believe Hurricane Fly is incredibly vulnerable in a fast run race on a decent surface. I'll be going into the Champion Hurdle with three arrows and I'm confidently against the champ and The New One (who I don't think hurdles well enough to win a very good renewal) and expect to have the winner in my portfolio. My Tent or Yours remains my main hope.

Big Buck's ran well enough after his long absence on Saturday but the form looks sub standard and although he could improve and be hard to beat in the World Hurdle he could just as easily bounce after such a hard effort on deep ground and at the prices I am very content with my position on Rule the World.

I was pleased with Felix Yonger's run in the Irish Arkle yesterday. He jumped well in the main but made a mistake and was hampered by a faller down the back straight before plugging on for second behind a horse he had dispatched with ease back in the Autumn on better ground. I took some 16/1 about him for the Arkle immediately after the race but was dismayed to read that his trainer plans to step him up in trip for his next start. If we get good ground in March he'll be hard to beat whichever race he runs in as he is the best jumping novice I've seen this year on a decent surface but I would prefer him to run in the shorter contest. We'll just have to see what happens. I was also taken with the performance of Valdez at Doncaster and I like him more than all the other British novices at around two miles. I expect he'll be around 10/1 on the day and I'd rather wait and take that price then than risk a bet now with his stable only just having recovered from a virus. It's more likely I'll include him in one or two each way doubles than have an outright bet on him.

I backed Le Rocher in the opener at Cheltenham and he was most impressive despite being non too fluent at a couple of hurdles. A fast pace will help his jumping. The big questions with this horse is will he be effective on better ground and will he even run in the Triumph Hurdle? I think he will go for the race now and his pedigree offers some comfort as to his likely effectiveness on a better surface. Quito de la Roque is by the same stallion and he won a decent novice chase on firmish ground at Aintree a few years back. Straw clutching? Possibly, but at 12/1 and with the best form so far I think it's a chance worth taking. I also have a position on Fox Norton from the same stable and he is much more of a traditional type for the race with his flat pedigree and good ground form.


Supreme Novices':
The Liquidator £15w @ 176/10
West Wizard £15w @ 16/1

Arkle:
Felix Yonger £20w @ 13/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £40w @ 7/1
Our Conor £15w @ 9/1 (NRFB)
Our Conor £15w @ 6/1 (NRNB)

Neptune:
Briar Hill £20w @ 12/1 (NRFB)
Ballyalton £5w @ 21/1

RSA:
Clondaw Kaempfer £4w @ 109/1
Wonderful Charm £25w @ 16/1 (NRFB)

Champion Chase:
Twinlight £10ew @ 25/1 (NRNB)

JLT Novices' Chase:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)
Felix Yonger £25w @ 91/10
Champagne Fever £20w @ 7/1 (NRFB)
Wonderful Charm £10w @ 7/1 (NRFB)
Wonderful Charm £15w @ 7/1

Ryanair:
Al Ferof £20w @ 20/1 (NRFB)
Al Ferof £45w @ 65/10 (NRNB)
Cue Card £15w @ 52/10

World Hurdle:
Monksland £10w @ 24/1
Rule The World £20ew @ 20/1 (NRNB)

Triumph Hurdle:
Fox Norton £15ew @ 25/1 (NRFB)
Le Rocher £15w @ 12/1

Albert Bartlett:
Briar Hill £20w @ 6/1

Gold Cup:
Al Ferof £15w @ 19/1
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 10/1 (NRFB)

£1 Lucky 15:
Irving (Supreme) 12/1
My Tent or Yours (CH) 4/1
Briar Hill (Albert Bartlett) 6/1
Bob's Worth (Gold Cup) 9/4

£10 Each Way Doubles:
The Tullow Tank (Supreme) and Faugheen (Neptune) 10/1 and 9/2
Our Conor (Champion Hurdle) and Mendip Express (Nat' Hunt Chase) 5/1 and 8/1











25/01/2014

Cheltenham Trials Day - 25th Jan

The headline makers going into this weekend's action are Hurricane Fly and Big Buck's. Six Festival victories they may have between them but for different reasons they look vulnerable in their respective races at Leopardstown and Cheltenham. They have both reached the veteran stage and I believe neither will win in March this time around. The Hurricane is intensely vulnerable with some top class young horses waiting in the wings to grab his crown and Big Buck's at eleven years of age and with well over a year off the track faces a hard task both today in the Cleeve Hurdle and in the World Hurdle in six weeks. He wont be match fit yet and with the ground heavy/soft in places at headquarters I think either Boston Bob or Reve de Sivola will turn him over later this afternoon. I would back the latter if this race was at Newbury or Ascot but he's just never been quite at his best at this course even though the ground has come in his favour.

Nick Williams does however have cracking chances in most of the other races on today's card and I've backed two of them. Le Rocher is a juvenile hurdler with an enormous amount of scope and he won a Grade 1 at Chepstow on deep ground in very taking fashion a few weeks ago. The Triumph Hurdle trial he runs in today looks a good heat but his trainers young animals continue to be overpriced and although the Paul Nicholls contender looks a good sort his odds of around 11/8 compared to 3s about the selection is an excessive gap relative to their respective chances. Paul was on the Morning Line earlier today and obviously fancies his horse's chance but that sort of exposure can skewer the odds of a race (we saw a similar thing when Champion Court's owner was on the same programme before the Paddy Power in November and that horse's odds ended up being incredibly short).

The other bet is The Italian Yob who runs in the Novices' Handicap Chase. He's a horse with form ties to a very good Alan King horse called Valdez who some judges fancy for the Arkle and is a noticeably game front runner who jumps very well for a novice. The ability to jump well and economically is a massive plus for any animal's chances in a given race but particularly so for younger horses who obviously haven't a lot of miles on the clock. Off 132 today the selection won a similar event at Sandown in December off 125 and the seven pound hike doesn't look enough to stop him being competitive in an admittedly tougher looking event. Although that said the second favourite, Ohio Gold, is held on that Valdez form line.

Triumph Hurdle Trial:
Le Rocher £40w @ 3/1 (won)

Novices' Handicap Chase:
The Italian Yob £40w @ 11/2 (pu)

(-318.75)




23/01/2014

Ante-Post

Big Buck's returns to action this weekend and from a Festival standpoint the market for the World Hurdle could look vastly different come Saturday evening. At present the best prices available are these:

Big Buck's 9/4
Annie Power 4/1
More of That 6/1
Boston Bob 8/1
At Fishers Cross 14/1
Reve de Sivola 14/1
16s Bar

I want to be against all of these. The Favourite is 11 years old now and is returning after more than a year off. At his cramped odds I want to get in a nice bet just in case he bombs out in a couple of days and the market reforms. Annie Power I don't think will run, More of That is a terrible price on what he's done, Boston Bob should be chasing and is too slow for this race, AFC has no form this season and much as I like Reve de Sivola he would only have a chance on deep ground. The one that catches my eye is Rule The World at 20/1. Second to The New One in the Neptune last season he got injured subsequently at Punchestown but has returned to form on his last run and Mouse Morris is a master at getting his horses to peak at Cheltenham. First Lieutenant, War of Attrition, even good old China Rock who ran well in a couple of Gold Cup's all peaked in March and I expect Rule the World to do the same. 20/1 is way too big, especially when you consider how much The New One has franked that Neptune form.

It is possible the Champion Hurdle could see a similar shake up come Sunday with the three big Irish contenders going at it again in the Irish Champion Hurdle. I have this sneaky feeling that Hurricane Fly is vulnerable this time around and will consider opposing him on the day. Just have to see how the market goes.

Supreme Novices':
The Liquidator £15w @ 176/10
West Wizard £15w @ 16/1

Arkle:
Felix Yonger £10w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £40w @ 7/1
Our Conor £15w @ 9/1 (NRFB)

Neptune:
Briar Hill £20w @ 12/1 (NRFB)
Ballyalton £5w @ 21/1

RSA:
Clondaw Kaempfer £4w @ 109/1
Wonderful Charm £25w @ 16/1 (NRFB)

Champion Chase:
Twinlight £10ew @ 25/1 (NRNB)

JLT Novices' Chase:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)
Felix Yonger £25w @ 91/10
Champagne Fever £20w @ 7/1 (NRFB)

Ryanair:
Al Ferof £20w @ 20/1 (NRFB)
Al Ferof £45w @ 65/10 (NRNB)
Cue Card £15w @ 52/10

World Hurdle:
Monksland £10w @ 24/1
Rule The World £20ew @ 20/1 (NRNB)

Triumph Hurdle:
Fox Norton £15ew @ 25/1 (NRFB)

Gold Cup:
Al Ferof £15w @ 19/1
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 10/1 (NRFB)

£1 Lucky 15:
Irving (Supreme) 12/1
My Tent or Yours (CH) 4/1
Briar Hill (Albert Bartlett) 6/1
Bob's Worth (Gold Cup) 9/4

£10 Each Way Doubles:
The Tullow Tank (Supreme) and Faugheen (Neptune) 10/1 and 9/2









18/01/2014

Haydock - 18th Jan

Just the single bet today, one that I mentioned in my last entry, Melodic Rendezvous in the Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock. As I suspected the race has cut up since my initial wager with Wille Mullins pulling the two animals he had in at the five day stage. I have topped up at 9/4 and that bet is with William Hill who are doing their normal Saturday concessions whereby you get your stake back as a free bet if the selection is second. If that happens I will be backing Katenko in the 3.15 - that horse is some tool on heavy ground and I expect him to return to form today.

Champion Hurdle Trial:
Melodic Rendezvous £50w @ 26/10 (won)

(-398.75)

16/01/2014

Haydock - Saturday


I'm hoping to attend this meeting on Saturday and the main race is the Champion Hurdle Trial. It's a Grade 2 event where Melodic Rendezvous hopes to atone for his poor run being My Tent or Yours in November. His win at Wincanton first time up was a decent effort as well as being my one decent winning bet thus far this jumps season. Like that race the selection finds himself behind a somewhat under priced Paul Nicholls animal in the market - Ptit Zig this time. He's a nice enough animal but he gives weight all around and at 3/1 Melodic Rendezvous falls right into one of my punting strategies. I love backing horses who are priced up with a poor run last time out over factored into their odds as opposed to their overall profile. It's sure to be very deep under foot at my local track and Melodic Rendezvous goes through that sort of ground like a beast. It's a race that could cut up badly as well so I want to get in before the Rule 4's come in. I'll probably be topping up on the day.

Champion Hurdle Trial:
Melodic Rendezvous £25w @ 3/1


15/01/2014

Ante-Post

Just eight weeks to go to the Festival now and my ante-post book looks ok. I have issues with some horses heading possibly for different races than that I've backed them in but the vast majority of those bets are non-runner free bet affairs so I'm not too concerned. One exception is my position on Felix Yonger for the JLT Novice Chase on the Thursday. He's very weak on Betfair for that race with Willie Mullins hinting that he may step stable companion Champagne Fever up in trip but that makes sense as last year's Supreme winner looks all over a stayer and I have him in my portfolio for the longer race. I have now backed Felix for the Arkle as well. I wanted cover in case thats where he goes and ultimately if that is the case that bet, plus the wager on Champagne for the JLT, gives me enough of a strong position in both races to make up for the money lost on the JLT Felix Yonger bet. He is the novice chaser I've been most impressed with thus far this season. He jumps well at pace and has decent Festival form. His last run can safely be ignored as it was a race run on pretty deep ground. Not the sort of going he thrives on. His form with Defy Logic and Trifolium looks someway better than that brought to the table by the UK Novices.

The Liquidator is a horse I had high hopes for in the Supreme but he was very disappointing at Kempton on Saturday and although less forcing tactics in March coupled with the course being far more suitable for him are things to hang onto I can't say I have much confidence at all in him now. West Wizard is due out again when the ground firms up a bit and he looks my main hope in the Festival opener now. It looks a wide open renewal.

Not much else to report really. I note that Cue Card is 85% to run in the Gold Cup and I just hope that that pushed Nicholls into aiming Al Ferof at the Ryanair no matter what happens in his prep run. Whatever race the grey runs in Cheltenham is his course but the shorter contest looks his for the taking as it is cutting up a bit. I've also punted Twinlight in the Queen Mother. This is a good race to get involved in each way now some firms are going non runner no bet and Mullins' horse has very good two mile form this season and his run against Captain Chris over too far a trip last Saturday can safely be ignored. I want Sprinter Sacre to turn up in A1 condition and devastate this field and I think he will, but there is value in the race amongst the double figure prices with Sire de Grugy looking very vulnerable as second favourite. He isn't a Cheltenham horse imo.

Supreme Novices':
The Liquidator £15w @ 176/10
West Wizard £15w @ 16/1

Arkle:
Felix Yonger £10w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £40w @ 7/1
Our Conor £15w @ 9/1 (NRFB)

Neptune:
Briar Hill £20w @ 12/1 (NRFB)
Ballyalton £5w @ 21/1

RSA:
Clondaw Kaempfer £4w @ 109/1
Wonderful Charm £25w @ 16/1 (NRFB)

Champion Chase:
Twinlight £10ew @ 25/1 (NRNB)

JLT Novices' Chase:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)
Felix Yonger £25w @ 91/10
Champagne Fever £20w @ 7/1 (NRFB)

Ryanair:
Al Ferof £20w @ 20/1 (NRFB)
Al Ferof £25w @ 7/1 (NRNB)
Cue Card £15w @ 52/10

World Hurdle:
Monksland £10w @ 24/1

Triumph Hurdle:
Fox Norton £15ew @ 25/1 (NRFB)

Gold Cup:
Al Ferof £10w @ 20/1
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 10/1 (NRFB)

£1 Lucky 15:
Irving (Supreme) 12/1
My Tent or Yours (CH) 4/1
Briar Hill (Albert Bartlett) 6/1
Bob's Worth (Gold Cup) 9/4





11/01/2014

Kempton - 11th Jan

The best race of today is the rearranged Tolworth Hurdle at Kempton. I'm sweet on The Liquidator for the Supreme Novices' but today's race is taking place on a radically different course on deep ground and I think he could be vulnerable, his trainer certainly thinks so. I won't be too bothered if he gets turned over as long as he runs well and on the bright side his price for March will hold up in that scenario - especially if the Mullins horse who heads the ante-post market at present wins at Punchestown.

My one bet today is an old favourite, Captain Chris in the listed chase over 2m4f. He ran a stormer first time out when third in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon behind Riverside Theatre (rec 10lbs) and Champion Court (rec 4lbs, same terms today). He looked big in the paddock that day and will strip fitter now. Kempton is one of his favourite tracks and although he missed the King George after a setback it was only a superficial cut that kept him on the sidelines and I expect a big run today. On soft ground I don't believe Champion Court has a finish in him to confirm form from Huntingdon and a bigger danger is the high class Twinlight from the Mullins yard. That horse has been in rude form this season thus far but today's trip is a stretch for him. All his winning form is over around two miles and his pedigree strongly suggests he'll struggle to see this distance out. I expected Captain Chris to be around 6/4 for this so I'm happy to take 2/1.

Listed Chase:
Captain Chris £55w @ 2/1 (won)

(-530)

01/01/2014

Ante-Post

Urgh, I'm not well at the moment, suffering as I am from a severe bout of seconditis. Cue Card, First Lieutenant, Jezki and Alfie Spinner today. Still, my selections seem to be running well and it's only a matter of time before it turns round.

Unlike this time last year when I had non-runners all over my Festival portfolio like a bad rash I'm quite happy with my positions thus far in 2013/14. I have an issue with a few of my selections possibly going for different races but most of these are covered by the non-runner free bet concession so I'll get a second bite at those bets.

I've added a couple of bets over the Holiday period. Sir Des Champs was a tad disappointing in the Lexus Chase on Saturday but they went no pace in the race and that factor coupled with the rain softened ground was against the horse. Cheltenham is where this horse's best form is and the 10/1 on offer about him for the Gold Cup immediately after Saturday's contest was snapped up straight away. I'd also like a good ground Gold Cup as that would count against Bob's Worth who can get outpaced.

The standard of the British staying novices this year seems below standard and the one horse I like, Wonderful Charm, seems headed for the Jewson despite looking all over a three miler. I doubt he'll have the pace to cope over the shorter trip and with Champagne Fever looking vulnerable over two miles judging by his defeat behind Defy Logic and Trifolium last week I think it's worth taking a chance he'll go for the Jewson rather than the Arkle. He's a future Gold Cup horse and Mullins isn't averse to running that type on the Thursday.



Supreme Novices:
The Liquidator £15w @ 176/10
West Wizard £15w @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £40w @ 7/1
Our Conor £15w @ 9/1 (NRFB)

Neptune:
Briar Hill £20w @ 12/1 (NRFB)
Ballyalton £5w @ 21/1

RSA:
Clondaw Kaempfer £4w @ 109/1
Wonderful Charm £25w @ 16/1 (NRFB)

Jewson:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)
Felix Yonger £25w @ 91/10
Champagne Fever £20w @ 7/1 (NRFB)

Ryanair:
Al Ferof £20w @ 20/1 (NRFB)
Al Ferof £25w @ 7/1 (NRNB)
Cue Card £15w @ 52/10

World Hurdle:
Monksland £10w @ 24/1

Triumph Hurdle:
Fox Norton £15ew @ 25/1 (NRFB)

Gold Cup:
Al Ferof £10w @ 20/1
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 10/1 (NRFB)

Cheltenham - 1st Jan

Good card at headquarters today even if a couple of the races have small fields. Alfie Spinner still strikes me as being on a winning mark at present. He started the season poorly but I couldn't resist 33/1 about him for the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton in November. He ran a cracker that day only finding the well handicapped Standing Ovation running off bottom weight too good for him. Next up in the London National at Sandown he helped cut out a fastish pace which told in the end as he was being ridden some way out and although he plugged on under pressure to get within three lengths at the death I think the combination of the 3m5f trip and the pace he set cost him.

Today he runs over 3m2f and on ground softer than he's raced on this season. He's off 128 now, just a couple of pounds higher than at Wincanton, and his return to some sort of consistency means he's worth an each way poke. The opposition don't look quite as strong as they did at Sandown, one reason I didn't back him that day.

Handicap Chase:
Alfie Spinner £20ew @ 13/2 (2nd)

(-640)