24/02/2014

Cheltenham - 2 Weeks

The news of Sprinter Sacre's absence from this year's Cheltenham Festival didn't come as a big surprise but it's a big shame and I just hope he can come back next season the same horse he was in 2012/13. I've read on Twitter that he's off to Newmarket for a thorough examination. Let's hope nothing serious comes to light.

On the betting front it was obvious looking at the Champion Chase market yesterday on Betfair that something was up and I took the opportunity to place a couple of bets on the race with the likely price contraction of all possible contenders once the news came out.

Baily Green ran his best race of the season in last year's Arkle and whilst he's put up a couple of decent efforts this term over two and a half miles in finishing runner up in races won by Sizing Europe and Texas Jack I think a return to two miles at the Festival will really suit him. I'm not really a stats guy unless there is a ryhme or reason behind them and the record of Arkle winners or runner's up in the following years Champion Chase is a hugely positive one. It makes sense as the contests are over the same course and distance and are usually really competitive. Mouse Morris isn't certain to run the horse but at 25/1 NRNB it looked a no-brainer to me. I've also added Benefficient in an each way double. Like Baily Green he is effective at two miles and of course he won at the Festival last year.

With Al Ferof already in my portfolio for the race hopefully I'll have at least one of these take part. I'm against Sire de Grugy and might go in again on the day depending on the line-up. Sire de Grugy has had a great season and I do think his poor record at Cheltenham is a bit of a red herring as he is much better now than he was as a novice but 7/4 is a terrible price.

The only other thing to add is The Tullow Tank's absence from the Festival because of the shenanigans (allegedly) in his trainer's yard has resulted in my each way double on him and Faugheen going down the pan. The bookie the bet was with has null and voided the double part of the bet so I was left with an each way single on the Mullins horse. But I've laid that off at shorter odds on the machine.


 




Supreme Novices':
The Liquidator £15w @ 176/10

Arkle Trophy:
Felix Yonger £20w @ 13/1
Trifolium £30w @ 6/1 (£15 NRFB)

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £55w @ 65/10 (£15 NRNB)
Our Conor £30w @ 15/2 (NRFB, NRNB)

NH Chase:
Just a Par £5w @ 30/1

Neptune Novices':
Briar Hill £20w @ 12/1 (NRFB)
Ballyalton £5w @ 21/1

Champion Chase:
Al Ferof £10ew @ 16/1 (NRNB)
Baily Green £10ew @ 25/1 (NRNB)

RSA:
Wonderful Charm £25w @ 16/1 (NRFB)
Smad Place £15w @ 8/1

JLT Novices' Chase:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)
Felix Yonger £34w @ 9/1
Champagne Fever £20w @ 7/1 (NRFB)
Wonderful Charm £35w @ 7/1 (£10 NRFB)

Ryanair:
Al Ferof £75w @ 10/1 (£20 NRFB, £45 NRNB)
Cue Card £15w @ 52/10

World Hurdle:
Monksland £10w @ 24/1
Rule The World £20ew @ 20/1 (NRNB)

Triumph Hurdle:
Fox Norton £15ew @ 25/1 (NRFB)
Le Rocher £25w @ 10/1

Albert Bartlett Novices'
Briar Hill £40w @ 11/2

Gold Cup:
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 10/1 (NRFB)
Last Instalment £13ew @ 10/1 (NRNB)

Non-Runners - Total of £39 lost

£1 Lucky 15:
Irving (Supreme) 12/1
My Tent or Yours (CH) 4/1
Briar Hill (Albert Bartlett) 6/1
Bob's Worth (Gold Cup) 9/4

£10 Each Way Doubles:
Our Conor (Champion Hurdle) and Mendip Express (Nat' Hunt Chase) 5/1 and 8/1
Carlingford Lough (RSA) and Al Ferof (Ryanair) 14/1 and 6/1
Benefficient (CC) and Briar Hill (Albert Bartlett) 10/1 and 9/2




18/02/2014

Cheltenham - 3 Weeks

I've had a couple of bets since my posts last week. I have added Trifolium in the Arkle at 6/1. I was loathe to oppose Champagne Fever but his missing out on a prep run last Sunday has to go down as a bit of a negative and so at a short price I'm now willing to take him on. Trifolium has improved with every start this season. He was firmly put in his place at Navan back in early December by Felix Yonger but that horse put in a terrific round of jumping that day and I still think he's the best novice chaser we've seen this season. On Boxing Day Trifolium came through for second in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase. I was initially concerned that Davy Russell couldn't lay up that day but re-watching the race his body language suggests to me that he thought the pace setting Defy Logic and Champagne Fever had gone off too hard and would come back to him. Of course the latter made his mistake down the back straight and Trifolium stayed on for second. He improved again in winning the Irish Arkle last month and is a viable alternative to the favourite. He also has a good Festival appearance to his name when finishing in the frame in the Supreme a couple of years back. I actually backed him for the Arkle last year at a big price but connections decided on a hurdling campaign. He was never himself in 2012/13 and had a wind operation in the summer.

The other bet is Just a Par in the 4 miler on the opening day. This Paul Nicholls charge was impressive when winning at Newbury in November, looking a neat and tidy jumper and was amongst the market leaders for the RSA after that win but he ran like a drain in the Feltham on Boxing Day. I'm always willing to forgive one bad run from any horse, and once Paul confirmed his target I was happy to take 30 on Betfair. I'm not wholly convinced he'll stay but he's overpriced.


Supreme Novices':
The Liquidator £15w @ 176/10

Arkle Trophy:
Felix Yonger £20w @ 13/1
Trifolium £30w @ 6/1 (£15 NRFB)

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £55w @ 65/10 (£15 NRNB)
Our Conor £30w @ 15/2 (NRFB, NRNB)

NH Chase:
Just a Par £5w @ 30/1

Neptune Novices':
Briar Hill £20w @ 12/1 (NRFB)
Ballyalton £5w @ 21/1

Champion Chase:
Al Ferof £10ew @ 16/1 (NRNB)

RSA:
Wonderful Charm £25w @ 16/1 (NRFB)
Smad Place £15w @ 8/1

JLT Novices' Chase:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)
Felix Yonger £34w @ 9/1
Champagne Fever £20w @ 7/1 (NRFB)
Wonderful Charm £35w @ 7/1 (£10 NRFB)

Ryanair:
Al Ferof £75w @ 10/1 (£20 NRFB, £45 NRNB)
Cue Card £15w @ 52/10

World Hurdle:
Monksland £10w @ 24/1
Rule The World £20ew @ 20/1 (NRNB)

Triumph Hurdle:
Fox Norton £15ew @ 25/1 (NRFB)
Le Rocher £25w @ 10/1

Albert Bartlett Novices'
Briar Hill £40w @ 11/2

Gold Cup:
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 10/1 (NRFB)
Last Instalment £13ew @ 10/1 (NRNB)

Non-Runners - Total of £34 lost

£1 Lucky 15:
Irving (Supreme) 12/1
My Tent or Yours (CH) 4/1
Briar Hill (Albert Bartlett) 6/1
Bob's Worth (Gold Cup) 9/4

£10 Each Way Doubles:
The Tullow Tank (Supreme) and Faugheen (Neptune) 10/1 and 9/2
Our Conor (Champion Hurdle) and Mendip Express (Nat' Hunt Chase) 5/1 and 8/1
Carlingford Lough (RSA) and Al Ferof (Ryanair) 14/1 and 6/1












15/02/2014

Ascot - 15th Feb

Some good action across three cards today with Captain Chris, Melodic Rendezvous and Zarkandar all in action. The Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton which features the last two named is probably the race of the day but it seems priced about right to me.

The only bet of the day is in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices' Chase at Ascot. Overnight Many Clouds headed the market at 7/4 with Gevrey Chambertin his main danger at around 9/4. I got the vibe looking at Twitter that the Pipe horse would be a popular fancy as we got closer to the race and that has transpired with Many Clouds now touching 3.6 on Betfair. This horse has some solid looking form this season in some decent novice events. He stayed on well behind Black Thunder at Haydock over 2m7f in November, form that was franked by the winner who ran the very smart Collin Wood close(ish) in his next race. And then at Wetherby over the Christmas period he beat two subsequent winners very nicely, jumping well throughout. I think 7/4 was about right for this race today. Gevrey Chambertin is a horse with a bit of hype about him and although he won the Fixed Brush event at Haydock well enough, and was probably better than the bare result that day as his jockey went for home a bit too soon, he has yet to jump a fence in public and has to be taken on at his now cramped odds.

Reynoldstown Novices' Chase:
Many Clouds £40w @ 26/10 (lost)

(-508.75)

13/02/2014

Cheltenham - 4 Weeks (Part2)





JLT Novices' Chase:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)
Felix Yonger £25w @ 91/10
Champagne Fever £20w @ 7/1 (NRFB)
Wonderful Charm £10w @ 7/1 (NRFB)
Wonderful Charm £15w @ 7/1

I'm not particularly happy with my position in this race. I preferred Felix Yonger for the Arkle and Wonderful Charm in the RSA. Felix Yonger is a ground dependant horse and the way it's looking I can't see underfoot conditions suiting whatever race he goes for. He'd be better off waiting for Aintree and my bet(s) on him were premature. The likely gound is a bonus for Wonderful Charm as I think he's a three miler so his stamina reserves will be key. The race looks quite deep on paper but I don't rate any of the others. Taquin Du Seuil just doesn't jump well enough, looking awkward at times. Oscar Whisky has looked reasonable in small fields but Wonderful Charm is a more progressive horse and is weighted to beat him on their run at Cheltenham in mid December. Bottom line is I have the two best jumpers in the race and ground conditions will suit at least one of them.

Ryanair:
Al Ferof £20w @ 20/1 (NRFB)
Al Ferof £45w @ 65/10 (NRNB)
Cue Card £15w @ 52/10

I was really pleased with Al Ferof's run at the weekend. It wasn't a race that suited him and the decision to pull him out of the Gold Cup and go for the Ryanair is great for me. It's amazing to think BetVictor were offering 20/1 about him for this race back in the Autumn. What were they thinking? Yes, he needed to prove himself after missing most of last season through injury but Paul Nicholls is a genius at getting chasers back off the easy list. Al Ferof is the very definition of a Cheltenham horse. His best two runs both came at this track in big field competitive events. I'm hoping Sprinter Sacre turns up for the Queen Mother as that could result in the odd horse running in this and the more runners and better pace we get the better. I have read murmurs to the effect that he has yet to prove himself after his time on the sideline but I don't buy it. His run at Ascot was virtually a schooling session, he hated Kempton where he never got into a jumping rhythm and small field events like the Denman Chase at Newbury do not play to the horse's strengths. I remember attending Aintree a couple of years back and successfully opposing him with Menorah in the five runner Manifesto. The Ryanair will suit Al Ferof perfectly and he would be my nap of the meeting at this stage.

World Hurdle:
Monksland £10w @ 24/1
Rule The World £20ew @ 20/1 (NRNB)

I haven't got a clue what has happened to Monksland. No news on entries or any possible injury problems have been forthcoming and I would think it's unlikely he'll turn up now.
My enthusiasm for Rule The World has waned a tad recently. Nothing to do with the horse, but it does look as if Annie Power will be going for the World Hurdle and that makes his task a lot harder. I think he has the right profile for the race despite looking a promising future chaser last season. He ran a cracker in the Neptune behind the top class The New One and his master trainer Mouse Morris has brought him along this season to peak at the Festival. Something he has done numerous times in the past. I can't see Big Buck's being anywhere near his best at eleven years of age and it is very possible he will bounce after the hard race he had in the Cleeve Hurdle. He won't even start favourite if Annie Power does show up and she looks bombproof to my eyes. She runs like she'll stay this trip no bother. All the rest are running for place money but I'm very hopeful Rule The World can chase her home.

Triumph Hurdle:
Fox Norton £15ew @ 25/1 (NRFB)
Le Rocher £25w @ 10/1

Despite Al Ferof being my nap of the meeting if I could choose just one winner over the four days I'd go for one of these fellas. I've been following the Nick Williams stable for half a dozen years now and he's yet to have a Festival winner. But he has such a strong group of young hurdlers and Fox Norton and Le Rocher look the pick of them at this stage. The Triumph is usually my sort of race and naturally I'm a bit biased with these two animals but Le Rocher has won a couple of graded races and clearly has the best form of all the contenders at the moment. Fox Norton is a different type being a flat bred horse and he hasn't run since mid December but his form with Royal Irish Hussar was franked at the weekend in Ireland  and he's still attractively priced.

Albert Bartlett Novices'
Briar Hill £20w @ 6/1

This horse has an enormous engine and Cheltenham brings out the best of him. I initially thought he'd be going for the Neptune but the stable prefer Faugheen for that. I imagine that is down to Briar Hill not being the best of workers. But he powered up the hill last season when winning the Champion Bumper and like Champagne Fever the year before he's the type to return and win again. King's Palace looks a formidable opponent and I'm not taking him lightly but his lack of a prep race is a negative given his skinny odds. The makke-up of this race isn't cut and dry just yet but it tends to be less competitive than the two other grade 1 novices' and Briar Hill will be so hard to beat.

Gold Cup:
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 10/1 (NRFB)
Last Instalment £13ew @ 10/1

I was very taken with Last Instalment last weekend when he comfortably won the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown. Off the track for a couple of years I didn't expect him such an epic return to form and although his legs are a worry given his problems he's a fair punt at 10/1 NRNB with his trainer unlikely to risk him unless the ground is safe. I was at Leopardstown when he won the Topaz in 2011 and I backed him to beat First Lieutenant purely on the way he looked in the paddock that day. He's a proper staying chaser and if he runs Bob's Worth will have a battle to retain his crown on his hands.

Non-Runners - Total of £34 lost

£1 Lucky 15:
Irving (Supreme) 12/1
My Tent or Yours (CH) 4/1
Briar Hill (Albert Bartlett) 6/1
Bob's Worth (Gold Cup) 9/4

£10 Each Way Doubles:
The Tullow Tank (Supreme) and Faugheen (Neptune) 10/1 and 9/2
Our Conor (Champion Hurdle) and Mendip Express (Nat' Hunt Chase) 5/1 and 8/1
Carlingford Lough (RSA) and Al Ferof (Ryanair) 14/1 and 6/1

12/02/2014

Cheltenham - 4 weeks (Part1)



This time next month we'll be in the midst of the best four days racing of the year. Over the next couple of days I'm gonna go over all my bets and my thoughts on the way a lot of the races look at the moment.

Supreme Novices':
The Liquidator £15w @ 176/10

Vautour put a huge marker down for the opener when winning impressively at Leopardstown on Sunday but at 4/1 he looks a little short given that he had the run of the race. You'd have to think the other jockeys won't let Ruby have his way up front this time around. Last year a couple of layers offered enhanced place terms on this contest and assuming the same thing happens again I'll be topping up on The Liquidator at a nice price. He plainly didn't give his running last time out and I just hope his win on the course earlier in the campaign hasn't bottomed him. I'd also like to see him ridden a little more conservatively.

Arkle Trophy:
Felix Yonger £20w @ 13/1

Felix Yonger has been the Novice Chaser that has impressed me the most this season but he looks more likely to go for the JLT over further on Thursday. I don't anticipate having another bet in this race now. Champagne Fever loves the track and although he needs to improve a lot on what we've seen him accomplish over fences thus far I expect him to do this. Trifolium and Valdez look the pick of his opponents and if the underfoot conditions on the day were not too soft I would consider putting the latter in an each way double. He looks a fine jumper out of good ground.

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £40w @ 7/1
My Tent or Yours £15w @ 5/1 (NRNB)
Our Conor £15w @ 9/1 (NRFB)
Our Conor £15w @ 6/1 (NRNB)

I've been following horse racing since 1989 and in all that time I can't think of a single renewal of any great race that looks as mouth watering as this year's Champion Hurdle. It has it all - a defending champion, one of the all-time greats, who's supporters still think he is under appreciated, a couple of top draw second season hurdlers with 170+ ratings who bring excellent Festival form to the party. And of course the best Triumph Hurdle winner in living memory. Add in the Britain v Ireland angle and you have a race for the ages. Personally I am completely against The New One and Hurricane Fly, the two market leaders, for differing reasons. In a renewal as stacked as this one is The New One doesn't hurdle well enough to win. He made a big mistake at the last in the Christmas Hurdle and the chances must be high a similar error will occur in the high octane heat of this race, especially as pressure is applied towards the end. Hurricane Fly is just too old in my opinion. His very best form is in Ireland and at his skinny odds he has to be taken on. I backed Jezki at big odds last March and added My Tent or Yours a month or so later. I'm not too confident about the former but the latter has done nothing wrong this term and enhanced his claims hugely when he outbattled The New One in the aforementioned Christmas Hurdle. The knock on him was he was a bit of a shirker but that theory was put to bed that day. He has learnt to settle better this season as well and with a likely fast pace assured with the likely presence of Un de Sceaux his high cruising speed will be a massive asset in the race as he'll probably be the last off the bridle. In the Supreme last year Champagne Fever prevailed partly because MTOY expended crucial energy by not settling that well and partly by setting a moderate enough pace so that he had enough left to hold the favourite off after the last. In this Champion Hurdle the pace will be strong and MTOY will in all probability settle better. This means he'll have a lot more left at the business end of the race and as we've seen he won't down tools in a battle. I recently added Our Conor to my portfolio because the layers overreacted to his defeat in the Ryanair Hurdle when he plainly needed the run. I thought he ran a stormer in the Irish Champion Hurdle in a race hardly run to suit when he travelled beautifully and was just done for a bit of toe near the end and one simply can't forget how imperious he was in the Triumph last year. Like My Tent or Yours he has enhanced his claims since the last Festival and yet has been available at bigger odds at times this winter. I rate him the main danger to the Henderson horse.

Neptune Novices':
Briar Hill £20w @ 12/1 (NRFB)
Ballyalton £5w @ 21/1

With Briar Hill likely headed to the Albert Bartlett I haven't really got any strong opinion in this race now. If the ground is decent I will go in on Ballyalton again as he looks a good tool on that surface and will be overpriced.

RSA:
Wonderful Charm £25w @ 16/1 (NRFB)
Smad Place £15w @ 8/1

Wonderful Charm is pretty certain to run in the opening race on Thursday.
I kind of fell for Smad Place last Saturday. He jumped really well throughout his win at Newbury and I really like the way he put his head down and outbattled Sam Winner for the win. He has decent Festival form and although I think I might have been a bit premature in putting this bet on (could be a similar price on the day) I think 8/1 overstates his chance. Ballycasey heads the market at around 5s and although he looked pretty decent on Sunday in the PJ Moriarty his odds of 5/1 look skinny to me. Carlingford Lough wouldn't have been too far away if he hadn't unseated at the last and at 14/1 he makes a lot more appeal. Another negative for the Mullins horse at his price is that he came over for the Albert Bartlett last season but got sick either during the journey or once stabled at the course. Hardly ideal. Carlingford Lough is a stayer who will be better suited to the field size and pace they'll go in this. He is a prime each way double candidate.

Champion Chase:
I backed Twinlight for the two mile championship with the NRNB concession but he was pulled out this morning. This race looks a no bet event and I hope Sprinter Sacre comes out and toys with them.

All in all Wednesday looks a relatively quiet day at this stage.

I will cover Thursday and Friday's action tomorrow.

09/02/2014

Leopardstown - 9th Feb

I didn't anticipate a bet on Leopardstown excellent card today but that was before First Lieutenant drifted to 5/2 for the Hennessy Gold Cup. I can understand why he's available at that price, there is a school of thought that really deep ground doesn't suit the horse. But I think Mouse Morris trains him with specific targets in mind so it's the time of year that dictates how he'll run rather than the state of the ground. So typically First Lieutenant peaks for the Lexus over the Christmas period, and the spring Festivals.

I believe that this race today and the Grade 1 he won last year at Aintree are his main targets this season. Both are three mile events and that is his trip. Last season in the Ryanair he found Cue Card just a bit too speedy and this time around I expect he'll go for the Gold Cup and yet another clash with Bob's Worth who has beaten him everytime they've met. So today's race is his best chance of a Grade 1 this season and I expect his master trainer to have him at his peak.

Tidal Bay looks the pick of the opposition and you can certainly make a case for him given that he finished ahead of the selection twice in 2012/13 but the horse is a teenager now and I have to be against him for that reason. The rest of the field are respected but they all have about a stone to find with the two market leaders.

Hennessy Gold Cup:
First Lieutenant £40w @ 5/2 (lost)

(-468.75)

07/02/2014

Newbury - 8th Feb

My cunning plan with Menorah in the Denman Chase didn't work as he ended up being one of the horses taken out, despite his having form on deep ground. Admittedly he ran like a bit of a non stayer in the race last season but Silviniaco Conti put the sort of pace into that renewal that is not present this time around.

I'm not a big fan of handicap hurdles in general, but the big race of the day is the sort of event that bookmakers fight for business in and a few layers are paying five places. In a 22 runner race that is concession gold and after an hour or two looking at the race I've decided to back the Alan King trained Vendor at 11/1. He won at the track in November in a race where he was anchored at the back until they hit the straight. In a relatvely slowly run contest that was the last place he should have been but he cut through the field like a knife through butter and won pretty nicely. He did go up 8lbs for that win but the narrative of the race suggests he is still on a winning mark. Yes, this is a tougher race, but if he runs to form I have the same philosophy in this renewal that I had last year when I backed My Tent or Yours each way with the thought that five horses were not going to finish ahead of him. That's not as certain this year but then again I'm getting better odds. Vendor goes on the ground and has won on this Racecourse.

I may also back Module in the Game Spirit as I think Dodging Bullets is a slightly dodgy favourite in his first foray into open company. But I want a bit bigger than the 9/4 currently available and with the usual money for a Nicholls shortie bound to arrive in the morning I might score some 5/2.

Denman Chase:
Menorah £15ew @ 10/1 (NR)

Betfair Hurdle:
Vendor £20ew @ 11/1 (lost)

(-428.75)

04/02/2014

Denman Chase

A nice little Gold Cup trial in store at the Berkshire track on Saturday and the odds are interesting:

Al Ferof 6/4
Harry Topper 6/1
Katenko 6/1
Trio D'Alene 6/1
Menorah 10/1
 12s Bar

Al Ferof should win this but his trainer has indicated that he doesn't want to run him on deep ground a month before the Festival. So with that in mind I think it's worth getting involved early for a bit of potential value.

I'm a sucker for a less than straight forward Hobbs chaser (is there any other kind) and Menorah stands out like a sore thumb at 10/1. Simply put he is a better horse than than all of these bar the favourite and if Al Ferof does miss this engagement he will be a lot shorter on Saturday. But even with that horse's presence I'd expect him to place. Menorah has just the one run to his name this season when he was pulled up in the King George but that was a very tough assignment first time out and may even have come as an afterthought when Captain Chris was withdrawn a week before the race. His form last year, in particular on flat tracks, was good in the main and he has won on heavy going as well. I was at Aintree when he was runner up to First Lieutenant in a Grade 1 in April and I would suggest that that was his best ever effort over fences. He actually ran in this race last year when he was a distant third to Silviniaco Conti. His jumping was iffy at times but he plugged on gamely all the way to the line and I'm hoping his relative freshness compared to last season (he'd had a hardish race on heavy ground six weeks before Newbury) will see some sort of improvement in his leaping.

Denman Chase:
Menorah £15ew @ 10/1

01/02/2014

Ffos Las - 1st Feb

One bet today and it's my old mucker Alfie Spinner. He ran his best race of the season last time out at Cheltenham on new year's day when he found the classy Mendip Express just a bit too good for him. Alfie has been most unfortunate to run into classy and/or really well handicapped rivals this campaign but he's been most consistant and the handicapper suprisingly didn't put him up after that last effort. Mendip Express looks better than a handicapper and is a viable contender for whichever Festival race he runs in. It goes without saying that Alfie is still on a winning mark and the ground/trip will suit today. There doesn't seem to be a Standing Ovation or Mendip Express lurking anywhere in the line-up so fingers crossed he finally gets the win he deserves today.

West Wales National:
Alfie Spinner £20ew @ 15/2 (pu)

(-358.75)