Cheltenham - 1st Jan

    I've had a pretty poor Christmas from a punting point of view but it's been a good year overall and my bankroll has grown to the extent that I expect to up the stakes a bit when we get to the flat.

    Despite not scoring since 2011 I think Alfie Spinner looks solid in the 12.45 tomorrow at Cheltenham, He's had a good season thus far but his theme for 2014 seemed to be running into really well handicapped horses time after time. Standing Ovation, Mendip Express and The Young Master were all too good for him over the last twelve months or so but unless Our Father is able to replicate some of the form he showed during his novice season over fences the opposition appears largely beatable. Alfie travels well in his races, jumps superbly in the main (he was terrific last time out at Aintree) and is overdue a win.


BetBright on Mobile Handicap Chase:

Alfie Spinner £25w/£15pl @ 6/1 (lost)

(+421.25)

Leopardstown - 29th Dec

    The main event on tomorrow's card at Leopardstown is Hurricane Fly vs Jezki fr the umpteenth time in the last couple of years. It's a race to look forward to right enough, but the Grade 1 Topaz Novice Chase that follows it around ninety minutes later is the race of the day in my opinion and arguably the best novice chase of the season so far. It's a contest choc full of promising jumpers and my only angle on the race is the thought that Apache Stronghold was initially priced with his trainer's comments that the step up to three miles might not suit over factored into one or two of the earlier bookmakers markets. I backed the horse in the Drinmore over two and a half miles and looking back he did well to finish as close as he did to the impressive winner given that he didn't jumped that well throughout the race. I think he's well capable of bettering that effort tomorrow, especially as he jumped left at a number of obstacles at Fairyhouse so Leopardstown should suit him better. Yes he may not stay but at his price I'm prepared to pay to find out. The opposition looks strong of course and Mala Beach is feared most. He's a horse who jumps and travels really well and three miles will bring out the best in him. The same comments apply almost equally to Don Poli and it should be a cracking race.

Topaz Novice Chase:
Apache Stronghold £40w @ 10/1 (2nd)

(+461.25)

Leopardstown - 28th Dec

    Before I detail my thoughts on the Lexus Chase tomorrow I have some thoughts on the action thus far this Christmas. The obvious place to start is the King George which financially was a bit of a disaster for me. Silviniaco Conti was deeply impressive and the tactics were excellent given the opposition but I doubt similar ones would be employed in a Gold Cup. I'd want to be against him at short odds in March but it's finding one to go to war with. Champagne Fever jumped superbly but was just a bit too free, probably because he wasn't allowed to lead. I immediately took some 12/1 about him for the Ryanair after the race and I can see him bossing the race from the front like Cue Card did a couple of years back. The only problem is the Champion Chase could be a possible target. But at a double figure price I'm prepared to bet that team Ricci/Mullins will figure out that not being able to beat Western Warhorse last March over two miles would make him vulnerable over the minimum trip.

    Faugheen provided better news for the stable half an hour before the big race but in all honesty he didn't really tell us anything new and some bookmakers have over-reacted to his win. Stan James actually make him even money and have pushed out Jezki to 13/2 which I have taken. The defending champ has rock solid Cheltenham form and will be a far tougher nut to crack than anything Faugheen has faced thus far in his career.

    Onto the Lexus. This is turning into a Mullins themed entry as my bet in the race is Boston Bob. I'm surprised he's as big as 11/2 given that three miles will probably be his optimum trip and I wouldn't say he's been disappointing at all this season. He needed it first time out at Down Royal when Road to Riches (main danger imo) had a major fitness advantage and was beaten by a high class two and half mile chaser next at Punchestown. His trainer has said that he thinks the ground has gone against him but his form on heavy as a novice hurdler somewhat contradicts this and I don't think he's that ground dependent. He can get behind in his races but I doubt Road to Riches will go off as fast as he did in November as his pace that day was shrewdly enforced to take advantage of that fitness advantage. I think Boston Bob is basically a better horse than Lord Windermere and I would love to see him beat him out of sight after that nightmare RSA fall a couple of years back and Bob's Worth whilst respected doesn't look the same horse to me that won the Gold Cup and somewhat lucked out winning this last year when they went no gallop and the opposition was light compared to this renewal.

Lexus Chase:
Boston Bob £40w @ 11/2 (lost)

(+501.25)

Kempton - 26th Dec

    The market for tomorrow's King George has changed fairly radically over the last few days with Cue Card, whom I backed last weekend, shortening all the time. I topped up slightly at 7s a day or so ago just as momentum was building behind him but I'm more interested in backing Champagne Fever now at the odds. This Mullins creature is my main fancy for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and I was willing to let him run with my best wishes but no cash down when he was 7/2 but at 11/2 in a place this morning he is just too big not to back now. The market as it stands is made by Silviniaco Conti who is woefully short at 5/2. Yes he won the race last year but the ground will be a lot faster this time around and it will suit others far more. Champagne Fever is bred to stay, jumps like a stag and his poor runs around this time of year the last two seasons were both on soft ground. The other thing to bear in mind is that he will trade shorter in running given the way he's likely to be ridden so appeals as a back to partial lay proposition.

    Of the others I think Al Ferof, Dynaste and Menorah are all priced fairly accurately (although if I was to produce a book on the race I would be slightly bigger on the latter two.) One I like at a price is Wonderful Charm. I backed this horse for the RSA last season as I think he's a high class staying chaser in the making but his trainer until now has resisted stepping him up in trip. He stayed on really well behind Wishfull Thinking last time out and as long as his rider isn't too harsh on him once he comes off the bridle (he doesn't travel brilliantly and will find the pace quite hot) he will stay on and has place claims. At present he'd trading at around 10.5 on the machine in that market but I think he'll be much bigger IR. I'll be asking for 20 before the race.

Finally, Merry Christmas to anyone who reads this. Whether by accident or design.


King George VI Chase:
Cue Card £10ew @ 10/1 and £10w @ 7/1 (lost)
Champagne Fever £60w @ 11/2 (lost)
Wonderful Charm (IR £15@ 20 to place requested) (lost)

(+541.25)

Ante-Post

    Possibly the biggest news in the last few days from an ante-post point of view was Sky Bet (who have changed hands recently) offering NRNB on the four Championship races at the Festival. I immediately had a look at their odds for those races and despite being tempted by Jezki at 5s for the Champion Hurdle the one bet I went with was Felix Yonger at a large looking 33/1 for the Queen Mother. This horse ran well in winning a relatively minor event first time out recently on really bad ground that he doesn't like and if we got decent underfoot conditions in March and he ran in the race he'd be much shorter than 33/1 I would think.

    Since my last post I've topped up a few of my Cheltenham positions including that of Josses Hill in the Arkle. I was quite pleased with his first run over fences last week. Yes he didn't jump very economically but the horse was on the sidelines until September and can only improve. I'm very much glass half with this animal and considering the energy he lost jumping as big and awkwardly as he did together with travelling with lots of freshness he did well to finish as close as he did. I'd be very afraid of Vautaur long term but not Un De Sceaux so much.

    Finally I've taken a bit of 10/1 about Cue Card for the King George on Boxing Day. The ground looks like being on the good side of good to soft which will really suit him. He emptied in this last season around two out but with better ground and a more restraining ride I think he's got every chance of getting home. I'll write more about the race nearer the time.

   

King George VI Chase:
Cue Card £10ew @ 10/1



--
Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £40w @ 107/10

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £20w @ 17/1

Queen Mother:
Simonsig £10w @ 14/1
Felix Yonger £10ew @ 33/1 NRNB

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1

World Hurdle:
More of That £20w @ 5/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1
Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1
Wonderful Charm £5w @ 156/1

Ascot - 20th Dec

    The bet I placed earlier in the week on Shelford for today's Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot looks in excellent nick now as his price has pretty much halved since Monday. I can understand this contraction given the strength of his form and the underfoot conditions he'll encounter. My one concern was the trip but the very soft ground will put the emphasis firmly on stamina even over two miles and It's very hard to seem him out of the frame. My normal tactic is to top up bets as we get closer to the day but this time I've decided to cover on Clondaw Warrior simply because he's the only other horse in the race I fear. He ran a fine race in the Greatwood Hurdle last time out when the lack of a decent gallop was against him. I thought Vaniteux ran well behind The New One last week and franked the form. I think Activial is overrated.

Ladbroke Hurdle:
Shelford £15ew @ 12/1 (4th)
Clondaw Warrior £25w @ 9/1 (lost)

(+646.25)

Ante-Post

    I've taken 12/1 about the Dan Skelton trained Shelford for the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot this coming Saturday. His win last time out at Chepstow in October was firmly franked when runner-up Aubusson won the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock a fortnight or so ago and although he's gone up seven pounds for that win Aubusson himself was six pounds higher from Chepstow so there's no doubt Shelford is one well handicapped animal. It'll be a competitive event no doubt but I'm confident he'll be placed at least and with plenty of rain forecast his form over further than two miles will be handy a handy asset.

     Josses Hill is entered up for a Novice Chase at the same venue on Friday. He's the horse I've been most looking forward to seeing this Jumps season and I believe he'll be special over fences. It's pleasing to see him out before the new year given that he didn't school until September. He must be coming along nicely at home.

Ladbroke Hurdle:
Shelford £15ew @ 12/1

--
Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £35w @ 106/10

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £15w @ 20/1

Queen Mother:
Simonsig £10w @ 14/1

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1

World Hurdle:
More of That £20w @ 5/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £20w @ 17/1
Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1
Wonderful Charm £5w @ 156/1

Cheltenham - 13th Dec

    I don't fancy anything over much today but I think Ataglance is worth a little tickle in the
December Gold Cup at Cheltenham. It's a very weak edition of a race with a terrific roll of honour and the selection is weighted to beat hot favourite Caid de Berlais on a line of form through Present View. Collateral form can be a shaky concept to hang your hat on but at around 10/1 in a poor enough renewal I think I can force myself into a bet, expecially given Ataglance's liking for the track.

    The 20/1 I took about King's Palace for the RSA before the season started is more of a winter warmer than any of my other Cheltenham positions at this stage and I was really impressed with him yesterday. He jumped with ultra economy and at this stage the only worry I have is whether or not he'd sulk if being taken on for a lead. Did this happen in the Albert Bartlett? It's possible, but I'm more of a mind that his lack of a prep run just caused him to race with an excess of freshness. I'm pleased he misses the Feltham and will probably just have a nice little prep run, ideally at headquarters again, in the new year.

December Gold Cup:
Ataglance £30w @ 10/1 (lost)

(+641.25)

Aintree & Sandown - 6th Dec

    I'm excited about today's cards and have managed to find three bets, which is quite high for me on a non Festival type day. I mentioned my liking for Mendip Express in the Becher Chase earlier in the week and I'm quite suprised he's available at 14/1 this morning. It is a race with dangers aplenty of course but it's a test that I think will really suit the horse. He travels and jumps well and is just a mean physical specimen with loads of scope. 14/1 with 5 places paid are generous each way terms.

    The Tingle Creek is the big race of the day and whilst I can understand why Balder Succes and God's Own are the prices they are I want to take them on because I think both are a tad overrated. The former has the better form and should come on for his run giving weight behind the latter in the Haldon Gold Cup but he ran poorly at this meeting last year. God's Own looks a high class chaser in the making but things very much went his way in both his last two wins with some of his opponents running well below par and again I'd like to take them on. I've selected Dodging Bullets who looks overpriced at 10/1. When I'm looking at a race one of the methods I use in attempting to unearth a bit of value is price comparing certain animals in the market and in this race today I don't believe Vukovar and Oscar Whisky should be shorter than Dodging Bullets. Vukovar is priced up mainly on promise and a pinch of hype and Oscar Whisky surely needs further than two miles and is vulnerable from a jumping point of view at this track. There was a lot to like about the selection's run behind Uxizandre at the open meeting first time up (the front two that day had the advantage of a run beforehand) and whilst on a line through Simply Ned he has around 4 lengths to find on Balder Succes he should come on for that run at Cheltenham (as most of Nicholls do) and 10/1 is very fair.

    Finally I can't resist an interest in horse I backed a couple of times last season. Amore Alato is a nice front running hurdler Nick Williams trains and he has some very nice form in the bank from his novice days including fine runs in defeat behind Irving and Lac Fontana. He's off 137 today and has decent claims at 9/1. This will be his first run of the season which is a possible concern and for that reason I'm attempting a back and partial lay strategy on him. As a strong travelling front runner he should trade much shorter than his current price in running at some stage.

Becher Chase:
Mendip Express £10w @ 12/1 & £15ew @ 14/1 (5pl) (2nd)

December Handicap Hurdle
Amore Alato £45w @ 95/10 (IR lay of £15 @ 6) (2nd)

Tingle Creek:
Dodging Bullets £25w/£10pl @ 10/1 (won)

(+671.25)

Ante-Post

    In my entry on Sunday I mentioned that I was happy to take some 5/1 about More of That for the World Hurdle after his somewhat disappointing run in the Long Walk at Newbury the previous day. He looked fair tubby and a fitter horse on better ground will soon put that run behind him. The form of his World Hurdle victory last March looks rock solid and he'll be incredibly hard to beat on the day if he gets there.

    Nearer to hand this weekend sees the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown and a nice looking card at Aintree. The Tingle Creek itself looks a ropey looking renewal this time around with almost all the star two milers out of action and I expect I'll be leaving it alone. I do like the look of one in the Becher Chase though, Saturday's main race at the Merseyside venue. Mendip Express is a big, strong chaser who jumps and travels extremely well. His run at Cheltenham at the turn of the year was incredibly eye catching and I think this test over the National fences will suit him down to the ground. The trip (3m2f) is probably around his optimum and plenty of rain is forecast later in the week so the ground should be fine. Naturally it's a competitive looking contest but I think there's plenty of mileage in the selection's price and I expect a good run. Once again he's a most promising chaser with so much scope (not many starts at all under rules given his age.)

Becher Chase:
Mendip Express £10w @ 12/1

--
Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £35w @ 106/10

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £15w @ 20/1

Queen Mother:
Simonsig £10w @ 14/1

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £10w @ 14/1

World Hurdle:
More of That £20w @ 5/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1
Wonderful Charm £5w @ 156/1

Fairyhouse and Carlisle- 30th Nov

    Tomorrow's Drinmore looks a very hot renewal. The Tullow Tank, Valseur Lido and Apache Stronghold all won well in lower grade events last time out and look like horses full of promise at this stage of their fledgling chase careers and I narrowly prefer the last named at 5/1. I think TTT will be hard to beat but if I was making a book I'd swap the prices of the selection and the Mullins horse around.

    Fingal Bay was disappointing today but he clattered a couple and folded tamely before they even entered the straight and I just have to hope he didn't hurt himself. I mentioned the Sky Lantern/Hot Snap reversal theory recently as a sort of way of not being too harsh on Group/Grade 1 horses who disappoint in a lower grade race during my preview of the Betfair Chase and we saw another example today with More of That being pushed out to a rather sexy looking 5/1 for the World Hurdle after his poor run in the Grade 2 Long Walk Hurdle on the same card. He looked heavy to me and just needed it on ground much deeper than he encountered at Cheltenham in March. I think some bookies have over-reacted and I was happy to take some of that action.

    My other bet is a horse I've been dying to see take a fence ever since I saw him in novice hurdles a couple of years back. Clondaw Kaempfer looked a horse full of promise that season before a poor effort on ground much too soft for him in the Challow at Newbury did for him. I was disappointed he stayed over hurdles last season but it ended up working out as he won a nice event at the Aintree Festival. He has the size for chasing and in an ordinary looking race at Carlisle I think Bet365 have taken a chance in offering 100/30. Stakes are small given this will be his first outing over the larger obstacles and I'm not a rampant fan of the trainer.

Saturday Naps Challenge Novices' Chase:
Clondaw Kaempfer £25w @ 100/30 (nr)

Drinmore Novice Chase:
Apache Stronghold £25w/£15pl @ 5/1 (2nd)

(+398.75)

Newbury - 29th Nov

    Fingal Bay has been one of my favourite horses in training ever since he handed Simonsig his only defeat in a novice hurdle at Sandown almost three years ago and rising nine the Hennessy today is the first time in his career that he has the conditions he was bred for. As good a hurdler as he was chasing was always going to be his game and despite some good performances as a novice in that sphere a couple of years back he never had the stamina test that he craves and I'm very happy with the 9/1 voucher I possess.

    I was contemplating covering on Smad Place but it's not a race where I can narrow the field down to just the one danger so I'm not going to bother. Djakadam actually isn't that bad a price now at 11/2 given his mouth watering mark and if I was in poor form I would probably consider backing both of those two but the last few months have been so good that I'm gonna just sit back with just the one selection and enjoy one of the best races of the year.

Hennessy Gold Cup:
Fingal Bay £40w @ 9/1 (lost)

(+408.75)

Ante-Post

   

    Another good weekend for me and I just hope my good run continues for a wee while yet. I have a couple already lined up for Saturday and Sunday and confidence couldn't be higher. I've already mentioned my liking for Fingal Bay in a previous entry and it looks like Newbury will have a good deal of ease in the going and I just think the test that is the Hennessy Gold Cup will really suit the horse, and of course his trainer has never been in better form. I think Smad Place might be the main danger and I might cover with him on the day, especially if his price stays honest with Djakadam being so short.

    The best Novice Chase of the season so far takes place at Fairyhouse on Sunday and I've taken some 5/1 about Apache Stronghold. This Noel Meade horse is a big strong chasing type who was always going to improve on what he showed on the track last season over hurdles. I fell for him when he won at Navan this time last year when he struck me as one of those horses who just catch your attention through their sheer physical presence. I'm not sure he'll ever be a Cheltenham horse, partly because of his liking for soft ground and partly because his trainer likes to win plenty of races with his best animals in Ireland and doesn't necessarily have them peaking for March. His last top class chaser was Pandorama (also a soft ground beast) who was unwisely put in Long Run's Gold Cup on pretty fast ground and was injured. Apache jumped well enough on his chasing debut recently and although The Tullow Tank will be a tough nut to crack I have to back him on price grounds, I don't see him out of the frame.

Hennessy Gold Cup:
Fingal Bay £30w @ 9/1

Drinmore Novice Chase:
Apache Stronghold £15ew @ 5/1

--
Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £35w @ 106/10

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £15w @ 20/1

Queen Mother:
Simonsig £10w @ 14/1

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £10w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1

Haydock - 22nd Nov

    It's been raining in Lancashire for most of the afternoon/evening which will really suit Silviniaco Conti whom I took 5/1 about for the Betfair Chase last Sunday. I've topped up at 4s since and believe he has a favourite's chance for the reasons I outlined in my last entry.

    My other bet is on the Nick Williams trained Aubusson in the Fixed Brush event that precedes the big race. This promising gelding ran well first time out when he pulled clear with Shelford in a handicap hurdle at Chepstow late last month. Shelford had beaten the highly touted Emerging Talent a fortnight before and that horse's run last Sunday was a nice boost to the form. Aubusson is bred to appreciate this step up to three miles and with underfoot conditions sure to suit I think 11/1 is a very fair each way price with four places on offer.

EDIT: 11:28am

    I'm gonna have to start blogging Saturday's bets on the actual day if this morning's price movements are anything to go by.

    Overnight I thought 7/2 Conti, 4/1 Cue Card, 5/1 Dynaste and Taquin Du Seuil were about right for the Betfair Chase. As I type though Taquin is now favourite (I like the horse a lot and have him ante-post for the Gold Cup) but market leader in a race this stacked is excessive. Cue Card is 5/1 in a couple of places and I've had to take that. I've punted him as cover and in a small double with Melodic Rendezvous who I think can give The New One a race on soft ground earlier on in the card.

Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle:
Aubusson £25ew @ 11/1 (won)

Betfair Chase:
Silviniaco Conti £40w @ 9/2 (won)
Cue Card £25w @ 5/1 (lost)

Melodic Rendezvous (Price Rush Grade 2 Hurdle)/ Cue Card £10w double (lost)

(+448.75)

Ante-Post

  Apologies for this weird looking entry. I have a new computer and paint isn't working the way it did on the old one. I've had to insert the screenshot below direct from my Tablet and it's effected the text. 

 The last week or so have been notable for the bold, front running displays put in by Champagne  Fever at Clonmel and King's Palace at Cheltenham on Saturday. Naturally down the line bigger tests await but for now I'm very happy with the positions I have on them for the Festival in March.

My local track stages it's best card of the season on Saturday and I took some 5/1 about Silviniaco Conti yesterday afternoon for the Betfair Chase. He was beaten by Cue Card in the race last year but his trainer getting a run into him beforehand this time around could be crucial, especially as Cue Card is coming back from injury and there has to be a slight doubt he'll be quite as good as he was. He drifted to 5s after that run in the Charlie Hall but I didn't see his relatively poor effort as a negative at all. Silviniaco Conti is a Grade 1 chaser and it pays to ignore the runs of high class animals (on the flat and the jumps) in races below the top level. I call this theory the Sky Lantern/Hot Snap reversal.

The following week the Hennessy takes place at Newbury and I've always been a big fan of Fingal Bay and have no hesitancy taking 10/1 about him for the big race. His chasing career was curtailed after a disastrous outing at Exeter almost two years back but he's a horse who needs a stamina test and a left handed track and Newbury should be perfect for him. He'll be off around 155 for the race and it bares pointing out that the last time he went left handed in a chase he was attempting to give Dynaste 4lbs in the 2012 renewal of the race Champagne West won on Friday. A difficult task.

Betfair Chase:

Silviniaco Conti £20w @ 5/1

Hennessy Gold Cup:

Fingal Bay £15w @ 10/1

Arkle Chase:

Josses Hill £35w @ 106/10

RSA Chase:

King's Palace £15w @ 20/1

Queen Mother:

Simonsig £10w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:

Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1

Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1

Cheltenham - 16th Nov

    I really enjoyed the racing yesterday but couldn't unearth a bet. The highlight was the round of jumping King's Palace put in on his chasing debut, bigger tests are on the horizon but I think he can go to the top.

    Today's card at headquarters is actually a bit better from a quality standpoint with a really hot looking novice chase and the Shloer thing (worst race name of the year.) I was quite tempted by Uxizandre in the latter event but just feel the two mile trip is on the short side.

    The bet today is in the Greatwood Hurdle where I'm going Regal Encore despite the fact that he has been somewhat disappointing thus far in his jumping career. He's a hard horse to resist off of 130 and a double figure price and it's difficult to see him out of the frame. I was at Aintree for his hurdling debut when he was bested by Garde la Victoire and he's a stone better off with that horse today. He's also a lot better off at the weights with Baltimore Rock for their meeting in the Imperial Cup in March and he just looks well in off his rating. He was never put into the race first time out at Chepstow on bad ground over a trip too far from him and I believe connections were protecting his mark that day. With 17 runners and 4 places paid it's one of those races where there is each way value and I think the selection is top of the list in that regard.

Greatwood Handicap Hurdle:
Regal Encore £25ew @ 12/1 (lost)

(-40)



Finally I'd like to pay tribute to Dessie Hughes who died this morning at the age of 71. He was a fine jockey and a great trainer. He will be sorely missed by the jumping communities on both sides of the Irish Sea

R.I.P.

Cheltenham - 14th Nov

    I spent a good hour looking at video form for Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup yesterday evening and came to the conclusion that Colour Squadron was well worth a bet at around 14/1 (17 on the machine.) He's a horse that is seen to best effect in a big field with a fast pace, conditions that mean he hasn't time to think about it like he did on his seasonal debut the other week. Unfortunately he was pulled out earlier on today when final decs were made and instead runs in a Novice event tomorrow.

    He dominates the market at around 9/4 but with only seven runners I think he's well worth taking on and I will do so with one of his stable companions. I'm a sucker for a Phillip Hobbs chaser and have had good days and bad with the likes of Menorah, Wishfull Thinking and Captain Chris in recent times, and I have backed Fingal Bay for the Hennessy later this month (to be expanded upon in my next Ante-Post entry.)

    Champagne West at this stage of his career looks every bit as promising as those named did and I can't resist a bit of 4/1 about him in what looks a really nice race. As well as Colour Squadron, Dell' Arca also trades shorter in the market for this and the only reason I can find for that is the Pipe's stable excellent record at this meeting. I'm surprised this horse is even being tried over fences as he's very much flat bred. I like Splash of Ginge as a potential chaser but he carries a meaty penalty and ultimately despite this being his debut over fences I think 4s is quite a tidy price.

Steel Plate and Sections Novices' Chase:
Champagne West £40w @ 4/1 (won)

(+10)

Navan - 9th Nov

    The Mouse Morris trained Baily Green looks overpriced at 8/1 with Ladbrokes for the Fortia Chase over two miles at Navan tomorrow. It's a tricky event with most of the line-up having a question mark or two against there names but the magic sign have this wrong with Days Hotel (on the wane) and Special Tiara (good ground animal) both unjustifiably shorter in the market than the selection. Baily Green has some really nice bits of form, particularly when running Sizing Europe close at Gowran Park at the start of last season and when placing in the Arkle and is a good jumper in the main. He is simply too big a price for this race.

Fortia Chase:
Baily Green £40w @ 8/1 (lost)

(-150)

Wincanton - 8th Nov

    Nick Williams has a couple out tomorrow in the two big races at Wincanton, one of them an old favourite and one more a new one. Alfie Spinner runs again in the Badger Ales Trophy, a race he was second in last season to a rampantly well handicapped Standing Ovation. That horse re-opposes again and has already beaten Alfie when they both made their seasonal debuts at Cheltenham last month but Alfie is slightly better off at the weights and is still in my opinion off a winning mark (127). I backed him three or four times last season and he always seemed to find a good one to beat him (Mendip Express stands out) but he's consistent and jumps very well in the main. I think 14/1 is very fair.

    I'm also backing Fox Norton in the Elite Hurdle. I think this race has a great betting shape with the front two in the market both very opposable at relatively short odds. Rock on Ruby has been a high class hurdler in the past but he's nearly ten years old now and giving a shedload of weight away in this. Irving is a very nice prospect but is incredibly short given both his level of form and record of his trainer's horses first time out this season. He beat the selection's stable companion Amore Alato five lengths off level weights in the Dovecote at Kempton last February and it's clear to anyone who follows Nick's stable that Fox Norton and Le Rocher were both well ahead of that horse in the yards pecking order last season. Fox Norton was a tad disappointing last back end in a Grade 1 at Aintree but he hadn't run since the turn of the year and that's always a red flag for novices going into the big spring Festivals and he was much better in a hotter looking event at Punchestown in the following month when only Abbyssial and Apache Stronghold could best him. It's a tough assignment tomorrow but the 21 on Betfair available as I type this is bordering on insulting.

Badger Ales Trophy:
Alfie Spinner £25w @ 14/1 (3rd)

Elite Hurdle:
Fox Norton £25w @ 20/1 (lost)

Both the above in a £10ew dbl, each at 14/1

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Ascot - 1st Nov

    The most interesting race being run tomorrow is the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby and naturally I hope one of my Gold Cup fancies, Taquin du Seuil, is able to put in a good round. However I don't see him as betting material with Silviniaco Conti being particularly tough at flat tracks.

    My one bet is at Ascot where I took 12/1 earlier on about Gevrey Chambertin in the big handicap at 3.35. This horse really impressed when winning the fixed brush race at Haydock on Betfair Chase day last year and although things didn't go his way in two subsequent starts over fences that season I think there were excuses on both occasions and he has enough talent and jumping ability to go close here off a handy looking mark of 139. First of all in his first ever start over fences he was stuck right in the deep end in the Reynoldstown at Ascot and actually jumped really well but was asked too much a question with an overly attacking ride and ran out of gas quickstyle. He ran next in the RSA at the Festival, a very tough assignment so early in his chasing career, and things didn't pan out at all in a rough race. He's race fit after an outing in a small field event early last month and I think if he's ridden sensibly he will be very competitive. It bares pointing out that he does jump well and his win at Haydock demonstrated that he has a considerable engine. Things need to go right for him but at the price he's well worth chancing.

United House Gold Cup:
Gevrey Chambertin £40w @ 12/1 (lost)

Ante-Post

    I enjoyed yesterdays jumps cards at Chepstow and Aintree and feel attuned to the winter game now after a terrific summer.

    From a betting point of view I always take it easy these opening weeks but I'm always studying the ante-post lists with a view to taking a position and I have added a horse to the bets placed for Cheltenham just after the end of the last Festival.

    Josses Hill was the animal who made the most impression on me with a view to future Festivals last March and I backed him for the 2015 Arkle as soon as the market for the race appeared. If you visit Youtube and watch a re-run of the 2011 Supreme Novices' and fast forward it to just before the last one can see Al Ferof, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card almost in a line and it is incredibly noticeable just how much bigger Sprinter Sacre is across the shoulder than his rivals and he struck me then as much the best chasing prospect of the four. This past March's renewal of the Supreme didn't really produce a similar clue from a physical point of view but I did notice during the race just how big Josses Hill was at most of his hurdles. "Skying" hurdles is just not that energy efficient and he did well to finish as close as he did. All being well I expect Josses Hill to be a leading candidate for the Arkle come March.

    The other horse who most caught my eye that Tuesday in March was Champagne Fever who jumped like a stag when just getting touched off in his Arkle. He's bred to be a staying chaser however and the 20/1 I saw about him for next year's Gold Cup was just too big to pass up. At this stage it looks a wide open renewal and there are one or two candidates towards the front of the market who are way too short even at double figure prices - Silviniaco Conti looks a pure flat track horse to my eyes and Holywell, whilst progressive, is too short, especially compared to his stable companion Taquin Du Seuil who has arguably achieved more. I actually noted on here how impressed I was with that horse's jumping and general attitude when he beat Oscar Whiskey in a novice event at the Paddy Power meeting last November but never backed him for the Festival as I had ground concerns. At this stage I think he's the best value in the race.

    My other wager, recently placed, is King's Palace at 20/1 for the RSA. His trainer has confirmed he will be 3m chasing this season and I expect those odds to come tumbling down as the horse wins a string of small field events from the front. I thought he was prepared terribly for the Albert Bartlett last season in not having a prep for the race in the new year (that's always bad juju, especially for novices) and then being asked to chase a fast pace-something that was never going to end well given his freshness. We've seen David Pipe send shorties to the Festival in novice events without adequate preps in the past only to come unstuck and I have to think he's learned his lesson. We'll see

Arkle Trophy:
Josses Hill £35w @ 106/10

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £15w @ 20/1

Gold Cup
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil £10w @ 26/1

   

Ascot - 18th October

    I posted my thoughts on Champions Day earlier in the week and nothing has changed since. Ascot has continued to attract rain and the ground will be very testing tomorrow, conditions that will suit Ruler of the World and Gordon Lord Byron. As ever I topped up my positions once final decs were made.

    I've had a very good flat season, the themes of which have been my increased use of video form study, particularly in lower grade races than I usually got involved with in the past, and also my cutting down on backing bigger, double figure priced horses in conditions events - bets that have been death for me in the past. The two wagers I have tomorrow will be my final bets on the level and I'm hoping my good run can continue when I finally get involved in some Jumping.

British Champions Sprint Stakes:
Gordon Lord Byron £40w @ 68/10 (won)

Champion Stakes:
Ruler of the World £50w @ 8/1 (lost)

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Champions Day

    The finale to the domestic flat season this Saturday at Ascot is surrounded by doom and gloom at the moment with horses either retiring or being pulled from possible engagements because of ground concerns. The track ate 25mm of rain last night and I went from being lukewarm about the meeting with the Jumps just round the corner and Chasers & Hurdlers on my bedside table to instinctively knowing that this rain would present a betting opportunity or two.

    Last year half a length separated Cirrus des Aigles and Ruler of the World as they finished second and third in the Champion Stakes. At the time of writing they are priced at 6/4 and 8/1 respectively, a ridiculous price differential. CDA is solid for the race and conditions will naturally suit him and to be fair he is nowhere near the worst value in the market (Free Eagle) but 6/4 is short enough for a horse of his age and like last season I expect Ruler of the World to relish ground conditions and be very competitive.

    Gordon Lord Byron is a horse I've mentioned loads of times on this blog and after a good run on fast ground at Haydock in Spetember he ran well again in the Foret on Arc day. Like last season he heads to Ascot with the ground coming right for him but whereas he was somewhat strangely asked to contest the QEII over a mile then, now he runs in the sprint race over 6f and I expect him to reverse form with his Sprint Cup conqueror running over much easier underfoot conditions. At 7/1 he is way overpriced.

British Champions Sprint Stakes:
Gordon Lord Byron £25w @ 7/1

Champion Stakes:
Ruler of the World £25w @ 8/1

Newmarket - 11th October

    Just a tiddler of a bet today. Mubaraza has a couple of really nice bits of form from early in the season when he ran well against Angel Gabrial a couple of times, including in the Chester Cup - a race that has worked out very well. He runs in the Cesarewitch today and is overpriced at 40/1. He trades at those odds primarily because his only run since May was in the trial for this contest when he was stone last. Not a positive obviously but I have to think if there was anything wrong with him physically his shrewd trainer would have picked it up and he wouldn't be running today. I've put him in an each way double with American Hope who runs in the very valuable mile handicap on Champions Day next week.

Cesarewitch/Balmoral Handicaps:
Mubaraza(lost)/American Hope £10ew dbl @ 40/1(6pl) and 11/1

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Sunday - 5th October

    Unfortunately whilst editing my post from earlier today to reflect the result of the big race in Paris I somehow lost it. I can't understand how a simple roll of the mouse can do this, especially when I'm editing and the original work has been saved. This is the second time this flat season I've had this issue.

    For the record I managed to come out level on the race with Flintshire placing. My bets on the race had been posted before as they were placed ante-post, aside from the odd top-up earlier in the week.

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Ascot - 4th Oct

    Just a quick entry today as I'm posting from my computer at work and keep getting interrupted. I've mentioned Mange All a couple of times here since he went into my tracker with his powerful winning effort at Ascot on King George day. The horse he surged past that day, American Hope, runs in a valuable handicap on the same track today over a shorter trip and I think he's worth a bet at around 8/1. Since that run he had a rather unfortunate outing at Goodwood when he was given a coffin draw and never got into it. I'm always prepared to forgive a horse a poor effort on that track and he has plenty going for him today. The 7f will suit, he's up against a fair few 6f beasts and I'm hoping his tendancy to sweat up will be nullified today given the drop in temperatures as we enter into Autumn.

Totepool Challenge Cup:
American Hope £25w @ 8/1 and £15ew @ 15/2 (Non-Runner)

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Newmarket - 27th Sept

    My main bet tomorrow is High Celebrity in the Cheveley Park Stakes. I'm still keen on her although the the drying ground concerns me slightly. I posted my thoughts on the race earlier in the week and only need add that I have topped up my original bet.

    The Cambridgeshire is my favourite domestic race of the flat season and has been responsible for my two biggest ever winners. One of those horses, Bronze Angel, has his third run in the contest and whereas twelve months ago he went in cold running for the first time that year he is quite exposed this time around and it could be argued not greatly handicapped. However he has a 5lb claimer up top which brings his mark down to his last winning one. It's true this claimer rode him last time out when he was second in a handicap at Doncaster but he ran into an unexposed 3yo that day and ran really well in the circumstances (I would also add that the field size that day wasn't the biggest, Bronze Angel's best form all coming in races with lots of horses.) It's a tough ask naturally and there will be better handicapped horses in the race, but my fella loves the test, is racing off a winning mark if we take the claim into account and six places are being paid in places. That'll do me.

    I'm also having a bet on Gabrial's Kaka. I actually had the Cambridgeshire in mind for this horse when he was a fast finishing third behind Velox (who is one of the market leaders tomorrow and is much worse off at the weights) in a handicap at Sandown in July. He started slowly and ran on without ever threatening next time out at York (Bronze Angel ahead of him that day) and you definitely couldn't claim he's a well handicapped contender, but I think this step up in trip will really suit him and ultimately he's a bet because 28/1 is just too big.

Cheveley Park Stakes:
High Celebrity £50w @ 54/10 (3rd)

Cambridgeshire Handicap:
Bronze Angel £20ew @ 16/1 (6pl) (won)
Gabrial's Kaka £20ew @ 28/1 (5pl) (lost)

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Newmarket - 25th Sept

    The last race at Newmarket tomorrow features one of the few remaining horses left in my tracker this flat season. Secret Hint ran an eye catching race in a handicap at Goodwood at the start of the month when drawn 10 she hung right in the closing stages, ending up a fast finishing fourth upsides horses who took a straighter course throughout the race. She ran off 80 that day and in theory is off the same mark tomorrow but she runs from out of the handicap, carrying 4lbs more than she should. To me though if she'd been better drawn at Goodwood she'd have won with a fair bet in hand so even that 4lb extra doesn't put me off too much, although I'm playing safe by backing her each way. I also think this extra few pounds has been over factored into her price and 6/1 is well worth taking.

EBF Stallions Fillies Handicap:
Secret Hint £25ew @ 6/1 (won)

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Ante-Post

    This part of the flat season is my favourite. The Cambridgeshire/Arc/Champions Day weekends all take place within the next month and I'm hoping to have plenty of bets.

    First up at Newmarket I don't think my fancy for the annual cavalry charge down the Rowley Mile will get in the race but Mange All may take part in the compensation event on Friday. My main focus now however is on the Cheveley Park Stakes. The list of high class fillies who bomb out after a hard season in this event is a long one. Cape Verdi and Harayir were 1000 Guineas winners who won Lowther's before bombing out in the Cheveley Park and at around even money I'm betting we may add Tiggy Wiggy to that list on Saturday. She's been on the go since May and this will be her ninth start, and that's a tough ask for any juvenile. I'm taking her on with the Andre Fabre trained High Celebrity. She's already been over the English Channel when running very green on the July Course earlier in the season but showed that that experience had brought her on when winning the Prix D'Arenberg at Chantilly earlier this month, displaying a rather nice turn of foot in the process. This is a big step up in class but her trainer has indicated already that he considers her a Group 1 filly and whilst I rarely take much notice of connections comments I do make an exception where the master trainer is concerned. I think 11/2 is a tidy price.

Cheveley Park:

High Celebrity £25w @ 11/2

Cambridgeshire:
Mange All £15w @ 20/1

Arc:
Flintshire £10w @ 41/1
Gold Ship £10w @ 20/1 and £10ew @ 16/1
Harp Star £25fb via Snow Sky @ 10/1 and £25w @ 10/1

---
Arkle:
Josses Hill £35w @ 106/10

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil £10w @ 26/1

Ante-Post

    Another poor day yesterday and numerically I'm now in the midst of my worst losing streak for at least five years, Rizeena being my fifteenth straight losing bet. However I had such a great start to the season that I'm still showing around a 50% ROI overall.

    Over in France today the Arc Trials take place with Treve being the main horse on show. I'm against all the market leaders for the big race at present and the free bet I received from Paddy Power yesterday via Snow Sky finishing third in the Leger has been placed on Harp Star. I've already backed Gold Ship for the Arc and after much trial and error, as well as major gnashing of teeth, I feel the Japanese are poised for success this Autumn.

Cambridgeshire:
Mange All £15w @ 20/1

Arc:
Flintshire £10w @ 41/1
Gold Ship £10w @ 20/1 and £10ew @ 16/1
Harp Star £25fb via Snow Sky @ 10/1 and £25w @ 10/1

---
Arkle:
Josses Hill £35w @ 106/10

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil £10w @ 26/1

Doncaster and Leopardstown - 13th Sept

    We have one of the better Saturday cards of the summer tomorrow with cracking action at Doncaster and over in Ireland. I previewed the St Leger earlier in the week when I backed Windshear and it's a good race to get stuck into because Kingston Hill is such a heinous price and there is a ton of value there. Ladbrokes are offering four places so I've topped up my bet with them and added Snow Sky at 11/2. I backed this horse in the Voltigeur and the only reason I fancy Windshear more is his slightly better Leger type pedigree.

    Over at Leopardstown Australia should cement his position as the best middle distance colt in training in a straightforward looking Champion Stakes but the layers have slipped up in making his stable companion Tapestry favourite for the Matron Stakes. This filly is all over a middle distance performer and was impressive enough in lowering Taghrooda's colours in the Yorkshire Oaks but this step back in trip to a mile is far from guaranteed to suit and Rizeena has decisions over her already. Clive Britain's charge is a proven Group 1 quality animal whose best form is on fast ground and it makes no sense to me that she isn't 13/8 or 7/4 for this. If she runs to form she wins. Simple.

St Leger:
Windshear £20ew @ 9/1 and £10ew @ 7//1 (4pl) (4th)
Snow Sky £25w @ 11/2 mbs (3rd)

Matron Stakes:
Rizeena £50w @ 5/2 (2nd)

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Sandown - 12th Sept

    I mentioned Between Wickets on my entry yesterday and he runs in a handicap at Sandown tomorrow. He showed a nice turn of foot at Salisbury in winning his last race and whilst a six pound hike in his official mark was more than I ideally wanted after he went into my tracker I'm backing him because the race he contests has a nice betting shape to it with a market leader well worth taking on. GM Hopkins is the horse in question and 13/8 about an animal in a handicap who has only run in maidens is ludicrous and worth opposing all day long. I'm happy with 5/1.

Sungard Handicap:
Between Wickets £40w @ 5/1 (lost)

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Doncaster - 11th Sept

    I've had one of my best ever flat seasons this year but am on a losing streak dating back to the Ebor meeting and could do with getting a winner in asap. When the Cambridgeshire prices came out a few weeks ago the horse I backed for the race was the William Haggas trained Mange All who immediately went into my tracker after a powerful performance in a hot handicap over 8f at Ascot on King George day. He looked a creature who would appreciate a step up to further than a mile that day and although he had failed over a mile and a quarter in the past (a race at Newmarket where he failed to settle off of a slow pace) it looks clear to me that a cavalry charge like the Cambridgeshire or a big field contest over 10f will really suit him.

    He runs in a thirteen runner handicap at Doncaster tomorrow and given his rating and age he'll need to win to get in the Cambridgeshire with a penalty and I think he has excellent claims  The aforementioned Ascot contest has worked out quite well (a horse called Between Wickets who was down the field that day entered my tracker after winning nicely next time out at Salisbury) and with two or three pace horses in the race I am very happy to take 7/1 tomorrow about a horse who looks to be going places under the care of a master trainer of handicappers.

Crownhotel-Bawtry.com Handicap:
Mange All £50w @ 7/1 (2nd)

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Doncaster - 10th Sept

    Tomorrow Wilde Inspiration returns to the track where he first came to my attention when a running on second after meeting trouble in running in a handicap in May. I collected at a mouth watering 6/1 (SP 9/4) when he just prevailed at Thirsk last month (first two seven lengths clear.) That effort on the softest ground he's raced on suggested to me that he still had another race in him even after an adjusted mark but I left him alone at Chester a couple of weeks later as he was drawn 12/12 - death on the Roodee. I was pleased to see him run a smasher from such a terrible berth though and at 13/2 he's an easy bet to make for one of the better looking races on the opening day of the Leger meeting.

Romero Insurance Brokers Handicap:
Wilde Inspiration £40w @ 13/2 (lost)

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St Leger

    I hit the post big time yesterday in backing the second and third in the Sprint Cup. Conditions races that feature short priced favourites who look beatable even for a place are excellent each way races and I should have had at least some of my Gordon Lord Byron stake in the place market.

    The St Leger next Saturday has a market with a similar shape to it and whilst Kingston Hill isn't quite as weak as Sole Power was I have major doubts about him staying a mile and three quarters, especially in an attritional race like the Leger. What you want is a horse bred to thrive for this step up in trip and I just don't see that from a son of Mastercraftsman. I backed Snow Sky in the Voltigeur and one can make a case for him at 6/1 but I prefer Windshear who trades three points larger. He has two Arc winners close up in his pedigree and is a half brother to a two mile winner so looks tailor made for the Leger trip. His run in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood behind Snow Sky was eye catching and to me he looked a horse that day who would be more at home on a flat track as he rolled about in the straight as the race began in earnest.

    The row of seconds next to his name adds weight to the each way option but I expect noticeable improvement for the extra distance and my only concern is the trainer. As good a year as Richard Hannon has had I suppose I still see him as a trainer of sprinters and milers but that said I'm happy to absorb that negative at 9/1.

St Leger:
Windshear £20ew @ 9/1

Haydock - 6th Sept

    Bit of a late one today as I was at work this morning and had computer issues last might. I took 10/1 about Gordon Lord Byron for today's big race at my local track a week or so ago and whilst confidence has taken a knock with a rather unusual dry spell since, the racecourse has had enough of a shower today for me to justify topping up. I would prefer softer conditions though as his best form is with a nice bit of cut. Sole Power heads the market but I can't see him winning a Group 1 over 6f and I'm more afraid of Music Master who ran an excellent race from a poor draw in the Diamond Jubilee in June and looked value for more than a head when winning a Group 3 at Newbury in July. I've covered on him.

Sprint Cup:
Gordon Lord Byron £30w @ 82/10 (2nd)
Music Master £20w @ 8/1 (3rd)

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Ante-Post

    A poor week at York overall but I was pleased with Pallasator. I think his wide draw did for him ultimately in the Ebor and I still think there's a good race in him, maybe the November Handicap.

    On the ante-post front the next big race over here is the Sprint Cup at my local track and last year's winner returned from a two month break on Saturday when running well under a penalty in a Group 3 at the Curragh. I would expect there to be cut in the ground come race day and 10/1 about Gordon Lord Byron is a very nice price at this stage. This is even more the case considering the doubts about Slade Power's participation. If he fails to make the event I would expect GLB to start around 9/2.

    Over in Japan on Sunday Harp Star and Gold Ship fought out a thrilling finish to the Sapporo Kinen, a Group 2 over 10f. Gold Ship will be three pounds better off come Arc day in Longchamp come October and I think there is mileage in him at 20/1. He tends to get well behind in his races but I think connections wouldn't employ such tactics in a race like the Arc. My thoughts on the race in general are that Sea the Moon is very solid for it if a bit short at around 5/1. I can't have Treve and don't like Taghrooda or Australia either. Treve has had no sort of season at all, Taghrooda will have had the wrong prep for the race if she gets there and Australia's trainer always over races his 3yos and I personally don't think he'll ever win it with a horse of that age unless he managed to get one of a Sea the Stars kind of level.

    Finally I've taken a bit of 20/1 about the William Haggas trained Mange All for the Cambridgeshire. As a 3yo rated 92 there is a pretty good chance he won't get in the race but I'll take that chance at the odds. This horse was most impressive to my eyes when powering home under strong pressure in a good handicap at Ascot over a mile recently and being out of a Montjeu mare he should stay further, but on his last try over further he was way too free in front and got tired. The annual Cambridgeshire cavalry charge will be right up his street then and I note he is entered up at the weekend probably in an effort to get a penalty and more chance of a run at Headquarters. Fingers crossed he gets in as I believe he'd have a great chance.

Sprint Cup:
Gordon Lord Byron £15w @ 10/1

Cambridgeshire:
Mange All £15w @ 20/1

Arc:
Flintshire £10w @ 41/1
Gold Ship £10w @ 20/1

---
Arkle:
Josses Hill £35w @ 106/10

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil £10w @ 26/1

York - 23rd Aug

 

    Urgh, I shouldn't have opposed Sole Power today, it's something I've done a number of times over the last couple of years and he's burnt me nearly every time. I suppose the brevity of my post yesterday evening was almost an indication of what a bad idea it was.

    Saturday's action is all about Pallasator. I had him in mind for the Ebor after his very eye catching first run of the season in the Old Newton Cup last month. I backed him at 14/1 as soon as odds were released for the race and although his subsequent win later in July at Ascot wasn't ideal both for the weight he carries tomorrow and his price (which fell through the roof) it did indicate that he was a horse of some ability given the trip that day and size of the field were hardly ideal. I'm not bothered about the big weight he carries tomorrow as he is a very big, tall, strong horse who will carry it. In many ways he reminds me of Yavana's Pace, a very smart stayer who won the 1998 November Handicap off 105 on really soft ground. That horse was built on similar lines to Pallasator and I'm hoping for a similar result tomorrow.

    Having 14s ante-post (I've topped up a little this evening) about a 4/1 poke means I'm well ahead on the race and so I've had a cover bet on Mighty Yar who looks the main danger. He has nice course form, was beaten by a group horse last time out and should relish this step up in trip.

Ebor Handicap:
Pallasator £40w @ 91/10 (4th)
Might Yar £25w @ 9/1 (lost)
Havana Cooler/Josses Hill (Arkle) £10w dbl @ 10/1 and 10/1 (balloted out, bet now a single on Josses Hill)

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York - 22nd Aug

    The July Cup aside I've backed Hot Streak in all his races this season and I think tomorrow's conditions - a flat 5f with some cut in the ground (it's raining nicely right now over there) are his optimum and so he rates a decent enough bet at 15/2 for the Nunthorpe. Nothing much to say about this race because although I'm keen on the selection I worry that Sole Power might be pulled if the ground softens too much thus ruining the race as a betting event. We'll have to see.

Nunthorpe:
Hot Streak £40w @ 15/2 (lost)

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York - 21st Aug

    I have a suspicion that I left it a little late putting Gabrial's Kaka into my tracker. He went into it after his fast finishing second in a handicap at Haydock in May rather than before his win in his previous race. But he's been a most consistent horse this season and although he doesn't look that well handicapped off 103 he does get a claimer on when he runs in the 3.05 at York tomorrow and at 12/1 in a big field with four places being paid he's an easy horse to back. I was on him in the Hunt Cup when he received a poor ride from Spencer but left him alone when he ran next at Sandown. He was anchored at the back in a fast run race that day and flashed home late and fast to grab third. For sure the race was run his way but he struck me as a candidate for the Cambridgeshire that day and this mile with it's long straight will suit him. If he runs to form he surely hits the frame.

Clipper Logistics Handicap:
Gabrial's Kaka £25ew @ 12/1 (lost)

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York - 20th Aug

    Two cracking races on tomorrow's card that opens the four day Ebor Festival and whilst I think Australia and Kingston Hill are solid and hard to oppose I believe Snow Sky is a tad overpriced in the latter's Great Voltigeur. Normally when I have my eye on a 7 or 8/1 shot I'd be looking to go after the favourite but in this case its the two horses priced between Kingston Hill and the selection that make this a tidy betting market. The Cumani trained Postponed and Granddukeoftuscany, a creature from the Ballydoyle factory, are both shorter than Snow Sky and it's the usual case of potential being valued above form on display here and I love taking those type horses on normally. I expect York's long straight to suit my horse and he probably rates a bit better than the bare form of his Gordon Stakes win last time out at Goodwood as he got very warm and colty in the paddock and drifted in price. Like I said at the start Kingston Hill is quite solid at the top of the market and for that reason my bet is of the each way variety.

    The Juddmonte is one of my favourite races of the season and I have seen a few renewals in person. I expect Australia to win despite his trainers comments about him not being 100% fit but it wouldn't surprise me if Telescope gave him a close race. For all that Taghrooda was very impressive in the King George I was a tad disappointed in Telescope that day and I expect a better run tomorrow as like Snow Sky the track will suit him (he won the Voltigeur last year of course.) That being said I'd want better than 11/2 to tempt me.

Great Voltigeur Stakes:
Snow Sky £20ew @ 8/1 (2nd, rule 4)

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Newbury and Ripon - 16th Aug

    Overall today's racing looks very trappy and I'm not overly keen on anything but for smallish stakes I'm taking a chance on Pether's Moon in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury and one of my tracker horses, Duke Cosimo, who runs at Ripon.

    Pether's Moon ran better than the bare result suggested last time out at Goodwood and he's a quirky one whom first time blinkers might help today. He's far from nailed on but I think 6/1 is fair value given the opposition is stacked full of horses I want to be against. I backed Red Cadeaux in this last season and although he doesn't carry a beaucoup penalty this time around he's eight now and I don't like the look of his form this year - I think he might have had enough. He's less of a dodgepot than Seal of Approval though who was awful last time at Haydock. She is vastly overrated through her win in a very weak Group 1 for fillies at Ascot last Autumn. Somewhat has fewer negatives than those two animals and is feared but like I said, 6/1 about an in form animal like Pether's Moon in a weakish Group 3 like this is worth a go for smaller stakes

    Duke Cosimo has been a bit disappointing since he went into my tracker back in May (luckily I must have missed the email about his entry last time out at Haydock) but he looks well drawn today in the compensation race for the Great St Wilfrid's and has an each way chance.

Geoffrey Freer Stakes/William Hill Trophy Handicap:
Pether's Moon/Duke Cosimo £10ew dbl @ 6/1 and 11/1 (lost)

Geoffrey Freer Stakes:
Pether's Moon £20w @ 6/1

EDIT:
    As a postscript to today's bets, I must stop fecking about with doubles on days where I don't fancy anything enough for a proper wager. Duke Cosimo won today and my previous double this season in mid July on Triple Threat at Newbury and Bracelet in the Irish Oaks went similarly when the former was unplaced and the latter won at 10/1. In future reduced stakes singles will be the way to go.

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Ante-Post

    The period between the end of Glorious Goodwood and the Ebor Festival at York is one of the quieter punting times for me and although I haven't had any bets in the last week or so I've been watching a fair amount of racing and thinking ahead to the Jumps season. Losing my job on the railway at the start of the year has had a really beneficial effect on my betting, it's sort of concentrated my mind and made me focus on where I do well and where I don't and I've eliminated the bets that don't work for me. Watching lower grade racing in an attempt to obtain tracker horses has been the big positive this summer and I will continue to do this in the winter, something I haven't really done in the past. Although I prefer the jumps my winter betting strategy has always revolved around Cheltenham and whilst that Festival will continue to be enormously important to me I'd like to just watch more action and pick up horses to follow. I think the reason I've always nixed the idea of watching lower grade stuff is the thought that soft ground handicaps always finish with horses strung out over large distances. There seems no reason not to give it a go though.

     I got in early on Pallasator for the Ebor itself and I'm in a good position with his current odds looking very short at around 4/1. It's a competitive race obviously but I thought it prudent to add one of his biggest rivals and I expect a big run from Havana Cooler who ran a cracking race at Goodwood last time out. That course didn't seem to suit the horse that much as he wandered under pressure and the long straight at York will be far more up his street, as it will Pallasator of course.

    As you can see from the bottom of the page I'm very keen on Josses Hill for the Arkle and I'll be putting him in doubles throughout the remainder of the flat and into the winter. If he takes to fences like I expect him to I want to be in position for a huge pay-out in March.

Ebor:
Pallasator £20w @ 14/1
Havana Cooler £10w @ 11/1
Havana Cooler/Josses Hill (Arkle) £10w dbl @ 10/1 and 10/1

Arc:
Flintshire £10w @ 41/1

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Arkle:
Josses Hill £25w @ 108/10

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil £10w @ 26/1

Goodwood and Thirsk - 2nd Aug

    The bet of the day is Wilde Inspiration in the 4.15 at Thirsk. I backed him last time out over a mile at Chester when he was taken (somewhat unwisely in my view) to the inside from his wide draw even though it was only a small field handicap and had to go wide to make his challenge in the short straight. He ran on really well and although he went up two pounds for that effort he has a three pound claimer on this afternoon and there is no doubt in my opinion that he has a race in him somewhere. There's been rain at the track and this is a furlong shorter than at Chester but he went into my tracker after his unlucky in running second at Doncaster in May over 7f and he has won with cut. A lot of my notebook horses have run at minor meetings on big race days and have been priced lazily as a result (almost all of them were returned much shorter than than their early odds.) I expect him to be a fair bit shorter before the off.

    My other bet is the rather obvious Muthmir in the Stewards Cup. I thought this horse would be too short to back given his hugely impressive romp at York but he drifted to 8/1 on Thursday when he was perceived to be badly drawn. I only had a tenner on at that price as I thought the price might hold in a huge betting event but unfortunately I've only been able to top up at a little over 5/1. For that reason I haven't had the full wedge on and have placed him in a double with Wilde Inspiration.

Stewards Cup:

Muthmir £15w @ 7/1 (lost)

Peter Bell Memorial Handicap:

Wilde Inspiration £40w @ 6/1 (won)

Above two in a £10 double @ 5/1 and 11/2

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Ffos Las - 31st July

    No bets at Goodwood today. I think Angel Gabrial can outrun his double figure price in the Goodwood Cup but it's a big step up in class for him.

    I backed Warrior of Light in a handicap at Newmarket last Friday but he was withdrawn before the race, I don't know why, but it obviously wasn't an injury as he's out this evening at Ffos Las. It's a similar type race and the same comments about him apply here - he's a horse with a progressive profile who should relish the trip. The Godolphin animal that heads the market is less solid than Connecticut (who impressively won that event on the July Course) was so I'm more confident of a return.

Clogau 25th Anniversary Handicap:
Warrior of Light £40w @ 5/2 (won)

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Goodwood - 30th July

    I haven't put Glorious in the title because from a betting point of view it really isn't this year. I fancied nothing yesterday and today's action is almost as uninspiring. The opener has tempted me in though, mainly because when I see a horse trading as short as Maid in Rio is for a 12 runner handicap I feel there has to be value somewhere. As solid a chance as that horse has I do like Lieutenant Miller at around 10/1. He has a number of factors in his favour today. One, he ran well in this very race last season in finishing second to another Johnston inmate in Broxbourne. Two, he has a better chance than his down the field run in the Ascot Stakes last time out would suggest. He was cut up by the winner that day and was tenderly ridden out by Ryan Moore. Finally, Goodwood is a turning, undulating track that is suited to the higher rated animals in handicaps and Lieutenant Miller carries top weight. He has a very solid each way chance.

Goodwood Stakes:
Lieutenant Miller £20ew @ 10/1 (lost)

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Ascot - 26th July

    I've been having problems posting this entry, it was ok for my initial post but I've just come to edit it to update the blog and find I've lost what I'd written.

    Suffice it to say I got the King George wrong and Taghrooda was most impressive. I was against the Gosden 3yos and backed Magician and Telescope.

King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes:
Magician £40w @ 61/10 (lost)
Telescope £25w @ 11/4 (2nd)

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Newmarket - 25th July

    The penultimate race on this evening's card at Newmarket is an interesting 12f handicap that pits a couple of progressive looking 3yos against some older rivals. Warrior of Light and Connecticut are the names of these younger horses and they dominate the betting at 9/2 and around 6/5 respectively. The latter is trained by Luca Cumani and seems a bit of a buzz horse but I believe the price differential between the two is excessive. Warrior of Light went into my tracker after his last effort at Goodwood. He was hemmed in between horses around 2f out that day and had to be switched in order to make his claim but by the time he had clear air in front of him the winner had gotten first run and Goodwood is the sort of track where that sort of ground is difficult to make up. Warrior of Light ran on really well all the way to the line though, comfortably beating the remainder of the opposition and as a High Chaparral colt this step up in trip to a mile and a half should really suit. That same comment applies to Connecticut also and there was plenty to like about his last run at York but he does seems very short tonight.

32Red Handicap:
Warrior of Light £40w @ 9/2 (NR)

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King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes

    Up until a few days ago the King George looked a tight race from a betting point of view with Telescope a touch short but quite solid nonetheless after a really impressive win over course and distance in the Hardwicke, Magician priced about right at around 7/2 and Taghrooda at 11/2. But over the weekend the Oaks winner's price has collapsed whilst Magician has been really weak on Betfair. This drift suggested the Ballydoyle colt was a possible non runner but with Australia pretty much nailed on to run in the Juddmonte next month I can't see any other race for him so I took a chance last night at 11 and have topped up slightly at 8 just now. I'm always careful with horses from that stable who look artifically big for a race but it's a chance worth taking for small stakes.

King George:
Magician £10w @ 85/10

Redcar - 20th July

    Duke Cosimo is a horse I've had on my tracker since he won a handicap at Doncaster in mid May. He was trained as a 3yo by Sir Michael Stoute before joing David Barron this season. As good as SMS is David is a master with sprinters and judged on his aforementioned effort at Donny this horse looks on the up and up. He responded really well to pressure that day and I've been waiting for him to come out ever since. Not much else to say really, if a tracker horse runs under similar conditions that he or she faced when catching my eye in the first place they're gonna be a bet unless the price is stupid short and 5/1 strikes me as fair enough. He's a relatively lightly raced sprinter and has scope for further progress.

Yorkshire Summer Racing Handicap:
Duke Cosimo £40w @ 5/1 (lost)

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Newbury and The Curragh - 19th July

    We're in that time of the racing year where between Festivals a lot of the Saturday action is rather mundane. I don't like anything enough for a normal sized bet today but I have put a couple of horses in an each way double.

    Al Kazeem returns to action today after proving mostly infertile at stud and I want to be against him at around 2/1 as we have no idea what kind of form he'll be in. There isn't a whole lot running against him but the presence of the Fabre trained Triple Threat is interesting. It's clear the master trainer has brought him over for decent ground and that bit of the going description that contains the word firm may bring about some improvement as his form is largely better on good ground than softer.

    Over in Ireland Ballydoyle run half the field in the Irish Oaks and Bracelet appeals most from a form perspective. Riding arrangements however seem to indicate she is third choice at best which is a bit of a turn off. This stiff 12f will suit her given how she powered all the way to the line in the Ribblesdale and it's hard to see her out of the frame if she runs to form.

Steventon Stakes/Irish Oaks:
Triple Threat (lost)/Bracelet £10ew double @ 6/1 and 9/1

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Ante-Post

    Of all the horses in my tracker Wilde Inspiration was the one I was least convinced of but his performance in finishing second at Chester on Saturday confrmed the worthiness of his inclusion. Drawn 7 of 9 his jockey took him to the inside rail before making a move down the outside and ending up a touch unlucky. He covered more ground than any other horse in the race and is a winner waiting to happen.

    On the ante-post front apart from a pretty forlorn looking wager on Flintshire for the Arc I have no fancies at all in the upcoming Group races and the second part of the season will probably be dominated by cuts at the big handicaps. I took 14s about Pallasator for the Ebor when the prices came out a few days ago as I think the race will suit him and expect a big improvement from his first run a week or so ago at Haydock. That race was over an inadequate mile and a half and I thought he would struggle to be honest but he battled all the way to the line and as a big very tall horse he can only progress from that run. I backed him last year in the Cesarewitch when he looked to have every chance before fading in the last half furlong or so but he's a lightly raced animal and that race generally goes to battle hardened pros. He has a big chance on the Knavesmire. Angel Gabrial heads the market and is naturally hugely respected but he went up a whopping ten pounds for his Plate victory and that as well as the step down in trip is enough to put me off.

Ebor:
Pallasator £20w @ 14/1

Arc:
Flintshire £10w @ 41/1

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Arkle:
Josses Hill £25w @ 108/10

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil £5w @ 26/1

Newmarket and Chester - 12th July

    This Saturday is probably the most controversial race day of the year and has been since the July Cup was moved to it's current spot. With good action on the July course, York and Ascot trainers, jockeys and punters are spread thin and the general feeling is at least one of those meetings should be moved to a quieter weekend. Personally as a very selective punter I don't really care as I don't study every race on a card and never have done. I look at the conditions races and any event that a tracker horse pops up in.

    The July Cup looks a fascinating renewal with so many in the field not guaranteed to appreciate the conditions and although Slade Power looks incredibly solid as one of the few in it who that comment doesn't apply to I think we could have one or two outsiders hitting the frame and I'm prepared to give Astaire another chance after his rather disappointing run in the Diamond Jubilee last time out. He helped set the pace that day and was found out to a certain extent but the soft ground he'll encounter today will suit him and I think he has place claims. The rest of the field seems to be made of animals who are tricky on the ground (Aljamaaheer, Sole Power), trip (Gregorian, Hot Streak) or a combination of both.

    My other bet is in the last at Chester. Wilde Inspiration has been on my tracker since his unlucky in running second in a handicap at Doncaster in May and this is his first race in similar company since. He has won a maiden since that effort and went up a couple of extra pounds for that win and carries top weight today but Chester is one of the best courses in the country for weight carrying and I was happy to take 6/1 about him yesterday evening.

July Cup:
Astaire £25pl @ 5/1 (lost)

Apprentice Handicap:
Wilde Inspiration £40w @ 6/1 (2nd)

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Newmarket - 10th July

    The July meeting at Newmarket is a "festival" that doesn't really get my juices flowing but I usually find a bet or two. Sir Michael Stoute has the front two in the market for tomorrow's Princess of Wales's Stakes but I think the price differential (evens and 7/2 in a place) between Arab Spring and Hillstar is excessive and I've backed the latter. It's a fascinating clash between the two in many ways with Arab Spring graduating from handicap company and Hillstar being a fixture in group races and their last two efforts on the same day at Royal Ascot were radically different in terms of the way the respective races panned out. Arab Spring was always well placed in his handicap and kicked clear in the straight, the race very much going his way. Whereas as Hillstar was anchored towards the rear in the Hardwicke and by the time he got a run Telescope had been booted into an unassaible lead. He stayed on well to finish second though and overall his form on a decent surface such as we have on the July course tomorrow is the best in the race for all of Arab Spring's promise (don't forget he made the frame in last year's King George) and I think he's overpriced.

Princess of Wales's Stakes:
Hillstar £50w @ 36/10 (2nd)

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Newcastle and Newmarket - 28th June

    A big day tomorrow with two of my tracker horses in action and my biggest bet of the year going on the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle.

    I'm in a fantastic position with Angel Gabrial having initially taken 14s and then 10/1. Pique Sous was the favourite when the market was formed for the race on Monday but he wasn't declared at the 48hr stage. Everything went wrong for the selection in the Chester Cup in May when he was last early on and was asked to make headway around the outside of the field 4f out. He looked like winning in the straight but hung under pressure and was caught close him. Given the amount of energy the horse expended just getting to the lead the fact that he went so close to winning was a huge effort and I think he has stacks in hand of the handicapper. With a three pound claimer on tomorrow he is effectively only a couple of pounds higher and rates a good bet even at the 7/1 he is trading at now. I have topped up this evening.

    My other bet is Starlight Serenade in the last on July course. I've backed this filly twice already this season and her win at Goodwood towards the end of May suggests she is still improving and this mile with it's uphill finish will really suit her. She's won on good ground and her sire was a proper fast ground beast so underfoot conditions shouldn't present any difficulties.

Northumberland Plate:
Angel Gabrial £20ew @ 14/1 and £50w @ 82/10 (won)

EBF Stallions Fillies' Handicap
Starlight Serenade £40w @ 5/1 (lost)

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Northumberland Plate

    I've been eagerly awaiting prices for this race for a while. I mentioned Angel Gabrial last week as the number one horse on my tracker at the moment and he has held that position ever since his incredibly eye-catching run in the Chester Cup. I expected him to be around 8/1 for this weekend's race so the 14/1 that is freely availble is a gift. These inflated odds are mainly explained by the shortness of Pique Sous in the market. That horse ran a cracker last week at the royal meeting but steps back in trip by six furlongs and will find these hardy handicappers a lot tougher to crack. I will write more about my feelings on the race at the weekend.

Northumberland Plate:
Angel Gabrial £20ew @ 14/1 and £20w @ 10/1