30/03/2013

Fairyhouse - 31st March

After the stress and excitement of the Festival a couple of weeks without a bet has me feeling refreshed for Aintree and the start of the flat. I'm not a big fan of the Dubai World Cup meeting and the Lincoln leaves me cold so it's Fairyhouse where the money goes down this weekend. I had Oscar's Well in mind for the Jewson at Cheltenham well before the turn of the year and was naturally very disappointed when his trainer decided to bypass the Festival for tomorrow's Powers Gold Cup. He's been running over two miles all season and this trip tomorrow will suit the horse. I think he's a good bet at 9/2. His run behind Arvika Legionnaire at Leopardstown on Boxing Day reads very well after Benefficient and Baily Green's excellent efforts a couple of weeks ago and I reckon he is the best horse in this race. Favourite Mount Benbulben is far from straight forward and although this right handed track will suit he does not have the form to justify his short price and his win last time out was against ordinary animals. I can't quite work out why Mikael D'Haguenet and Dedigout are shorter with some layers than the selection either. The former always seems to make at least one error in his races and Oscar's Well clearly holds the latter on a line via the aforementioned Arvika Legionnaire.

Powers Gold Cup:
Oscar's Well £60w @ 9/2 (lost)

(+337.07)

22/03/2013

National Thoughts/AP Update

Teaforthree and Rebecca Curtis

A week after the Festival ended and I still proper have the post-Cheltenham blues. The Lincoln and Dubai World Cup meetings aren't my cup of tea and no betting is taking place so I've been studying the Grand National line-up in the hope of bolstering my position in the race. I kind of have a short list but one or two of them are very ground dependent and I'm dubious about at least one of them even turning up.

Now obviously the National isn't the sort of race to go into all guns blazing with a proper cut at one and so I do like to spread my stake on the race over at least four or five runners. Last year I punted six of the field and actually had the winner but unfortunately I only backed Neptune Collonges in the place market and so barely showed a profit on the race.

Amongst that half dozen in 2012 were Chicago Grey and Cappa Bleu and I'm going with both again. I have a very nice position on the former having backed him at 48 on the machine when the weights came out and the latter is a lot better off this time around with Sunnyhill Boy and Seabass and ran really well behind Vinny Griego at Ascot last month (form franked by that horse at Cheltenham). My only other bet at this stage is Teaforthree. I love this horse's jumping and I've had him on my mind as a National horse since he won the four miler at the Festival last season. His best form is on decent ground and yet he still ran a stormer in the Welsh National on heavy when only the genius of Paul Carberry denied him. He's seven pounds higher for that run now but (fingers crossed) better ground will nullify that hike in the weights. His moderate run at Haydock last time out can be forgiven as it was very much a prep race and he was in the main up against horses who's main objective that contest was rather than Liverpool in April.

Others I may go with are Imperial Commander, Roberto Goldback and Across the Bay but that will be decided nearer the day. I'm gagging for the former in particular to take part as he runs off 158 which underestimates the ability he retains. The handicap is very compressed this time around with only 10lb covering the first eighteen listed and Imperial Commander's class may tell at a nice price. He's also a big, gross steeplechaser (off hand the only one I can think of as big as him is maybe Time for Rupert) and will carry the weight. Let's hope his trainer confirms his entry.


Ante-Post List:

Grand National:
Teaforthree £20w @ 20/1
Chicago Grey £10w @ 47/1
Cappa Bleu £15w @ 15/1
Imperial Commander £10ew @ 28/1 NRNB
Roberto Goldback £7.50ew @ 33/1 NRNB
Prince De Beauchene (NR) £10
--
2000 Guineas:
Cristoforo Colombo £20w @ 24/1

1000 Guineas
Newfangled (NR) £15
What a Name £10w @ 14/1

--
King George:
Al Ferof £10w @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £15w @ 10/1






16/03/2013

Cheltenham Post-Mortem

Despite losing fairly big on the Festival I really enjoyed the whole week. Performances that stood out for me were the the front three in the Supreme, Sprinter Sacre, The New One, Cue Card and Our Conor.

Totally everything up I was actually £500 down before the meeting even began with a terrible ante-post winter. I went way over the top and I think the combination of my main two fancies for the week, Fingal Bay and Spirit Son, being out for the season by Christmas and the fairly steady stream of winners I had throughout the season were the main factors in this. I was using my winnings to fund speculative punts and it didn't work. This strategy also hamstrung me on the betting front during the season as my bankroll was tied up. I was backing mainly losers that actually did get to the Festival but I did get some returns and I have enough of a bankroll now to up the stakes for the flat season.

As for the action, the novice hurdlers in particular were a taking bunch and expect big things from Champagne Fever, Jezki, My Tent or Yours, The New One, Rule the World, At Fishers Cross and African Gold. Jezki is overpriced for next year's Champion Hurdle as he would have been closer without stumbling at the last and with a better prep (he didn't run after the new year). I've taken 20/1. I like African Gold as a chaser and also The New One from the same stable but I think the latter will stay hurdling.

The Novice Chasers looked average in comparison but Dynaste is surely better than he showed in the Jewson as his stable had nothing running well all week and of course Boston Bob is going the right way as well. He needs to improve his jumping but is in great hands and has scope to do so.

In the Championship events Hurricane Fly was flattered slightly by Rock on Ruby going way too fast up front and setting the race up for him and I might back Grandouet to beat him if they both run at Punchestown. By the time of the next Festival the dual winner will be 10 and I can't see him holding off Our Conor or Jezki if they get there. Sprinter Sacre was the best performer of the week and is the best jumps horse I've ever seen. I'm proud that I sort of recognised his potential during the Supreme in 2011 and backed him accordingly for the Arkle. The Gold Cup was a fantastic race and Bob's Worth is some stayer but I think he'd be worth taking on if he defends his title on good ground. He got outpaced at one point and I think on a decent surface he'd find it harder to peg a good one like Sir Des Champs back. I expect Al Ferof to make his mark in the race next season as well once he returns from injury. The Nicholls grey is slightly under the radar now and is a good price for the King George at 16/1. My ante-post list for the jumps next season won't be anywhere near as extensive as it has been this and moderation is key.

I'll be taking a break from punting now until the Grand National and then the flat season will kick into gear. Looking forward to it.

Ante-Post List:

Grand National:
Teaforthree £15w @ 20/1
Chicago Grey £10w @ 47/1

--
2000 Guineas:
Cristoforo Colombo £20w @ 24/1

1000 Guineas
Newfangled (NR) £15
What a Name £10w @ 14/1

--
King George:
Al Ferof £10w @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1




15/03/2013

Cheltenham Festival - Friday

So, onto the last day of the big meeting and although I've not had a good meeting at all from a punting point of view I have enjoyed it overall and I kind of know what when wrong. But those thoughts are for another day as we have some bets to go through.

I'm on the back foot already with a huge non-runner in Coneygree. I went a bit mad backing this horse during the winter but I was confident of laying back a portion of the stake I had invested as he was bound to trade short in running being such a free going front runner. His lameness earlier in the week was a blow.
In the Triumph I'm not convinced at all by Rolling Star towards the head of the market. He seems priced up on promise, hype and his trainer identity. In looking for a possible alternative Our Conor obviously stands out and in watching his last win at Leopardstown it's easy to be impressed but Diakali surely set the race up for him by setting too searching a gallop. Different tactics, or at least not blazing away too quickly if he leads surely gives that horse a chance of out running his price and he appeals more at 14/1 than his conqueror that day does at 10/3. We've seen this week that horses without Festival form - Pont Alexandre, My Tent or Yours and Dynaste - are worth taking on at short prices and with Mullins being in terrific form I think Diakali is a half decent each way poke, especially as Stan James are paying four places. Far West is the other to consider and he was in one of the numerous doubles I had during the week that went down. He's drifted to 5/1 because Nicholls has yet to have a winner but he hasn't had any quality at the meeting until now and Celestial Halo did run a smasher yesterday. I've put him in an each way double with Cotton Mill in the County. That horse has top notch form with My Tent or Yours and would have given Simonsig a race in the Neptune last year but for ducking out. Any rain will help given that the trip might be on the short side for him. Powers are paying five places in the race as well.

The Albert Bartlett I'm leaving alone now so onto the Gold Cup. Rain is forecast around mid day tomorrow so I'm not completely sure what my final position will be. I'm happy with my Long Run bet at 10/1 (also have him as the second leg in an each way double) as it's hard to see him out of the frame. He was most disappointing in the race last season but I'm of the opinion that the race he had at Newbury in February took more out of him than was ideal - he struggled to beat Burton Port - and it might have taken the edge off him.
He's a bit of a dour stayer nowadays and any rain would be nice.
I have a small bet on Sir Des Champs as well at 8s and was planning on topping up but worries about this forecast rain has me holding back. I'm going to wait and see and will update the blog when I've decided what to do. I also have a free bet (they're not really free it's more a second chance to get your money back) after First Lieutenant was second in the Ryanair and I might use that on last year's Jewson winner. He loves the track and good ground and I do believe Bob's Worth is one to take on given his lack of runs this season.

The Foxhunters is a race I don't think I've ever backed in before but it looks a two horse affair and Chapoturgeon seems overpriced at 5/1. The favourite will be tough to beat but there was little between them last year and as he gets older the selection should be acquiring more stamina.

Lastly I have Kid Cassidy as the second leg of an each way double and although he's a bit of a nutjob he has talent and seems to have been laid out for the Grand Annual.

More to follow tomorrow.

EDIT 15/3: The forecast rain which is due around mid day at the track has changed things for me somewhat. I think you'll need a proper stayer in this now and I've swung more to Bob's Worth than Sir Des Champs partly with going conditions in mind but also because Tony McCoy is now on the latter and that has affected the price. Last night on Betfair they were going 3.8 Bob's Worth and 5.5 SDC, as I type it's now 4.2 and 5.1. I'm leaving the Mullins horse alone and I've backed the favourite. I've taken 4.2 and had my free £25 bet on him at 11/4. The value I have on Sir Des Champs and Long Run ante-post for all that the former is too short now means I'm still in a good position in the race.

Triumph:
Diakali £20ew @ 14/1 (4pl) (4th)

Albert Bartlett:
Coneygree (NR) £130

Gold Cup:
Al Ferof  (NR) £5
Flemenstar  (NR) £35
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 8/1 (lost)
Long Run £10ew @ 10/1 (3rd)
Bob's Worth £40w @ 29/10 (won)

Foxhunters:
Chapoturgeon £40w @ 5/1 (lost)

Doubles:
Far West (Triumph) (2nd) and Cotton Mill (County) (5pl) (lost) £10ew @ 5/1 and 8/1

Un Atout (Supreme) (5pl) (4th) and Long Run (GC) (3rd) £10ew @ 7/1 and 13/2

For Non Stop (Ryanair) (3rd) and Kid Cassidy (GA) (2nd) £5ew @ 20/1 and 14/1

Sir Des Champs (GC) (lost)  and Cristoforo Colombo (2000G) £10 @ 4/1 and 12/1

Chapoturgeon (Fox) (lost)  and Cristoforo Colombo (2000G) £10 @ 5/1 and 12/1

(+397.07)








13/03/2013

Cheltenham Festival - Thursday

REVE DE SIVOLA

Is there anything worse than last fence fallers when the horse you've backed is in the lead? I don't think so. Boston Bob's defeat was harder to swallow than Orfevre's eclipse in the Arc. Horrible. He'd run so well up until that point as well. Sprinter Sacre's dominating display at least cheered me up a bit. What an animal.

Although I'm well down on the meeting and wasn't confident heading into today I am a lot more positive about Thursday's bets. That's partly down to the quality I think I have running for me and partly the shot in the arm Boston Bob's performance gave me.

The Jewson opens the card and because of doubles I actually have three running for me in this - Dynaste, Captain Conan and Module. I have to admit I wouldn't have backed the latter if Dynaste had gone for the RSA but the bet is there and we'll have to see. He looks a neat, tidy jumper with a touch of class and I thought 10/1 at the time was fair value. Captain Conan is the main danger to the favourite and although he was unimpressive last time I think he'll be better on this decent ground we now have. The race does revolve around Dynaste though. I didn't fancy him for the longer race but this looks straightforward enough really. He's an excellent jumper, will go on the ground and has decent form at the track. Should win.

At the start of the week I'd have said My Tent or Yours, Boston Bob and First Lieutenant were my most important bets of the week. Surely I'm due a little more luck with the latter. When I took 10/1 about him it looked more likely he'd go for the Gold Cup but I just didn't think his owner would want two in that race and leave this one alone. He kept Sir Des Champs and First Lieutenant apart last year after all. So, he has excellent Festival form, jumps well nowadays and hasn't really put a foot wrong this season - just been beaten by stronger stayers. This trip looks ideal and my one concern is the class of Cue Card. For that reason I have topped up my original bet at a rather shorter than I'd ideally like 5/2 via the Racing Post app because I get my stake back if he's second. Cue Card having too much speed is the only way I really see my selection getting beat. My other bet on the race is old favourite For Non Stop. He's very under the radar now but his win in the Old Roan indicated he had improved over the summer. He goes well fresh and although he wasn't at his best last year in the Jewson that race came after a relatively hard campaign for a novice and trip and ground will suit tomorrow. He's still overpriced.

I think the World Hurdle is fearsome tough but Reve de Sivola has done nothing wrong this season and although he's been tainted with the mudlark brush I'm not buying it 100%. He ran an excellent race behind Peddlers Cross on good ground in the Neptune in 2010 and I dunno, bad vibes have come out of the camp re him being hard to train because he has bad legs but you have to go on the form book and this season he's the best horse in the field. Oscar Whisky is a smashing horse but they'll go fearsome quick in this and he won't stay up the hill after such a gallop. Ante-Post I have a smallish bet each way at 10s and I've topped that up. I also have Bog Warrior in the race but have a feeling he won't run unless it rains. His profile suggests soft ground horse although he's never been tried on good and might like it. His sire was a proper fast ground merchant who I seem to remember backing when he was third in Lammtarra's King George.

The Cross Country that was cancelled on Tuesday is the last race on the card tomorrow and the ground has now come good for Bostons Angel. He has a good chance.

Lastly, I have two remaining free bets to place via Oscar's Well and Arvika Legionnaire not running in the Jewson and I will make my selections as per the bookie's rules in the morning.

EDIT 14/3:
The two bets I receive from BetVictor via NRFB have been placed on Captain Conan in the Jewson and Cue Card in the Ryanair. The former has it all to do to beat Dynaste and I think his enhanced price is partly to do with that animals participation and partly Captain Conan's rather less than impressive win in the Scilly Isles in early February. He only beat Third Intention narrowly that day but had him miles further back in the Henry VIII over a shorter trip on Tingle Creek day. Basically the ground was very deep in the former race and I was at Sandown in December and was very taken by the horse as a physical specimen. I think he has every chance of staying the two and a half on this drying ground.
I've backed Cue Card in the Ryanair simply because he appears the only realistic danger to First Lieutenant. He may have too much speed for Mouse's horse but then again the last time he met such a burner was when he beat Rock on Ruby in the Neptune so I'm not overly concerned.


Jewson:
Oscar's Well (NR) £35
Module £20w @ 10/1 (lost)
Captain Conan £25w @ 7/1 (lost)

Ryanair:
First Lieutenant £25w @ 10/1 and £35w @ 5/2 (mbs) (Free bet up to £25 rather than full refund) :(
Finian's Rainbow (NR) £25
For Non Stop £20ew @ 18/1 (3rd)
Cue Card £20w @ 7/2 (won)

World Hurdle:
Reve De Sivola £15ew @ 10/1 and £40w @ 5/1 (lost)
Bog Warrior £10ew @ 11/1 (lost)

Cross Country:
Bostons Angel £30w @ 10/1 (lost)


Doubles:
Hurricane Fly (CH) (won)  and Dynaste (Jewson) (lost) £20w @ 9/4 and 7/4

Captain Conan (Jewson) (lost) and Champion Court (Ryan) £10ew @ 7/1 and 15/2

Captain Conan (Jewson) (lost) and Silviniaco Conti (GC) £10 @ 6/1 and 9/1

Module (Jewson) (lost) and Bostons Angel (XC) £10ew @ 10/1 and 10/1

For Non Stop (Ryan) (3rd) and Kid Cassidy (Grand Annual) £5ew @ 20/1 and 14/1


£1 Lucky 15:
Simonsig (Arkle) Evs (won)
Boston Bob (RSA) 8/1 (fell)
Cue Card (Ryanair) 6/1 (won)
Coneygree (AB) 8/1 (NR)

(+317.53)













12/03/2013

Cheltenham Festival - Wednesday

SIZING EUROPE

After not having a bet for a while today's action has kind of tired me out. A poor start from a punting perspective but the action was terrific. I thought the Supreme was a top notch renewal and the front three will all make their mark in open company next year. The first two maybe as chasers and Jezki would interest me for the Champion at a price. Arkle winner Simonsig will need to settle and jump better if he's to go to the top though - his opponents next year will be different gear to what he faced today. And finally Hurricane Fly was superb in winning the Champion Hurdle after not travelling that great. He was just so gutsy, and the sneaky double I placed a couple of hours before the race on him and Dynaste at least meant I wasn't wiped out. I actually placed it because I thought the soft ground and lack of pace would really suit him. Turned out there was pace and the going wasn't as soft as we all thought. Dems der breaks.

Anyway, on to Wednesday's action. I've not had a proper bet on Pont Alexandre in the Neptune mainly because the price at the time didn't interest me that much but I knew I wanted to be against The New One and Taquin Du Seuil so placed him in some doubles. I like The New One a lot and he's the most attractive novice I've seen this season but he looks all chaser to me and I think he's vulnerable over the smaller obstacles as he tends to lose ground when jumping and that will cost him like it did Sprinter Sacre in his Supreme. Taquin Du Seuil I just think is under priced. The Challow he won is a bad race for Cheltenham wannabees and it was a poor renewal to boot. The rest don't look the best although Rule the World may be the main danger if he goes on the ground.

Boston Bob in the RSA is one of the most important bets of the week for me. As we saw today previous Festival form is a big plus and his run in the Albert Bartlett last season showed he stays all day and at least acts on the track. He's not been foot perfect over fences and got badly outpaced in the Moriarty last time out  but he stayed on like a train to win that race and in this tomorrow the more even pace he'll get and the extra distance with it's uphill finish will really suit him. With Dynaste running in the Jewson his opposition looks moderate for a Grade 1 and although I respect Unioniste and Hadrian's Approach the former needed a shed load of weight from a hardly top class Walkon to win the December Gold Cup and the latter looks sketchy at best in his jumping. I've topped up my ante-post bet.

Sprinter Sacre is obviously not one to oppose in the Queen Mother and I hope he wins in style. I'd also like a clean round of jumping from Sizing Europe. Love both those horses.

I did back Barbatos for the Martin Pipe on the last day but he's got in the Coral Cup. He has a chance but it looks a fearsome handicap and I'm leaving it alone aside from doubling him with For Non Stop on Thursday.

I have Pure Science in the Bumper but he's far bigger in the market than he was when I backed him so that tells a story.

EDIT 13/3:
I usually make these blog entries the night before big meetings and always do so for Cheltenham but this year I have three "free" bets to be used on Wednesday and Thursday and I can only place them on the day of the race. These bets are as a result of the non-runner free bet concession I used a number of times with BetVictor. Today I have £25 to use via Clondaw Kaempfer missing the Neptune and tomorrow I have £20 and £25 because Oscar's Well and Arvika Legionnaire are absent from the Jewson. I did have an internal debate with myself about whether or not to include these bets in my portfolio but at the end of the day if the selections I make go down I hardly get the money back I deposited with the bookie in the first place.
I'm already down £70 on the RSA because of non runners and so in selecting Unioniste I feel I have a sporting chance of getting most of it back. He's obviously the biggest danger to Boston Bob and although he's hardly value nothing else appeals in the race.

Neptune:
Clondaw Kaempfer (NR) £25

RSA:
Fingal Bay (NR) £60
Our Father (NR) £10
Boston Bob £50w @ 8/1 (fell)
Unioniste £25w @ 7/2 (lost)

Bumper:
Pure Science £15w @ 16/1 (lost)

Doubles:
Pont Alexandre (NEP) and Sizing Europe (Ryan) (NR) £10 @ 11/4 and 7/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) (lost) and First Lieutenant (Ryan) £10 @ 11/4 and 5/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) (lost)and Far West (Triumph) £10 @ 11/4 and 6/1

Boston Bob (RSA)(fell) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 10/1 and 14/1

Barbatos (Coral) (lost) and For Non Stop (Ryan) £10ew @ 20/1 and 14/1

Pure Science (Bumper) and Coneygree (AB) (NR) £10 @ 16/1 and 8/1

(+454.53)

£1 Lucky 15:
Simonsig (Arkle) Evs
Boston Bob (RSA) 8/1
Cue Card (Ryanair) 6/1
Coneygree (AB) 8/1

11/03/2013

Cheltenham Festival - Tuesday

ZARKANDAR


Here we go then, the best four days of the year. I seem to get more excited every year.

This time last season I was well down on the campaign but had Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle so entered the week very confidently. I'm in a far better position this year being over four figures up but I don't have any cast iron banker and with Coneygree's lameness yesterday my NR count is awful. That said I'm very hopeful of a good start with My Tent or Yours in the Supreme. He first caught my eye when getting beat by Chatterbox in a muddling affair at Newbury back in December. He looked a good, athletic sort who was unsuited to the way that race was run and I felt 20/1 quotes for the Supreme were an overreaction. With his trainer having so many candidates for this race I wasn't going to go overboard so put him in a double with Simonsig. He was impressive in his next start at Huntingdon and he just exudes class to me. I took 12s and 10s after that contest and topped up after his impressive win in the Betfair Hurdle. He's a horse that looks Champion Hurdle class already and I'll be very disappointed if he gets beat. He travels well and although a lot of pundits are questioning his resolution if he gets in a scrap because of his flat racing pedigree I think this is tilting at windmills in a big way. I have covered on Jezki and also took advantage of the five places Hills are paying out on with an each way double involving Un Atout. Both these Irish trained animals look the main dangers to the selection now Melodic Rendezvous is out.

If My Tent or Yours wins I'll have a very nice double going onto Simonsig in the Arkle. This is possibly my favourite race of the Festival and I have a fine record in it and my outright selection is Arvika Legionnaire. This horse was scintillating in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse where he lead from pillor to post and jumped beautifully. I took 10s about him then but he was less impressive in his next two starts and with Simonsig and Overturn both looking top notch I'm hopeful rather than confident. He also has a slight tendency to jump to his right which is a slight worry but on the other hand getting a lead tomorrow will possibly help and he does have course form as well.

I've pretty much been against Hurricane Fly for the Champion Hurdle ever since his price started to cramp after yet more facile triumphs in Ireland. I think Go Native had his measure before falling at the last in his first start and nothing he has done since expunges the memory of his tame effort last season. Initially I was involved in Spirit Son until it was announced he was done for the season and possibly career. That's a massive shame as he was impressive in defeat in that Supreme Novices and looked a top class prospect. My enthusiasm for Grandouet can't help but be tamed with all the doubts about his participation recently and although he makes the line-up Nicky Henderson has said he really wanted more time with him. If Hurricane Fly does win I get most of my stake back on him but I consider the likely result in hurdling's blue ribband to be a win for Zarkandar. Unlike Grandouet this animal has had a picture perfect prep for the Festival and as the race gets closer the more I fancy him. He's just a resolute galloper who keeps on winning his races. If the ground was fast and they went mental fast I think he'd have a hard task catching them like he did last year (when he didn't look the same horse). But Overturn runs in the Arkle this time around, the ground is a lot slower and we have a relatively small field. I fancy him strongly and despite the losses on Spirit Son and the bet on Grandouet I've taken a cut and had a normal sized bet.

That's pretty much it for day one. I'm not touching the handicap that splits the Arkle and Champion Hurdle (I do wish they had kept the race until after the latter) and although I have a wager on Bostons Angel in the Cross Country it was placed in the hope that we'd have a good ground Festival. I managed to lay back some of the original bet before the decs were made this morning. Shalimar Fromentro was unfortunately balloted out.

The biggest feature for me in this Festival from my own punting perspective will be how the doubles I've placed will do. I've never got involved in multiples before like I have for this meeting and although I think the each way twofolds are a sound idea (winners are always hard to find after all) I'm not sure about the win doubles. Too many would be my guess right now.

EDIT 12/3: Couple of changes to the book. I've had a score on Zarkandar on the Betfair sportsbook because they give you your stake back if your horse is second. I've also had the same amount on My Tent or Yours at Powers who are going a standout 5/2.

Good luck to anyone having a bet today.

(+1129.53)

Supreme:
My Tent or Yours £110w @ 39/10 (lost)
Jezki £25w @ 58/10 (lost)

Arkle:
Trifolium (NR) £10
Arvika Legionnaire £30w @ 11/1 (pu)

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son (NR) £35
Grandouet £10w @ 12/1 (fell)
Grandouet £50w @ 6/1 (NRNB) Stake returned if Hurricane Fly wins race
"Greened up" for £47.19 (Backed @ 9.38, laid @ 8.43)
Zarkandar £50w @ 9/2 and £20w @ 7/2 (Money back if 2nd) (lost)


Cross Country:
Bostons Angel £30w @ 10/1


Win Doubles:
My Tent or Yours (Sup) (lost) and Simonsig (Arkle) £10 @ 20/1 and evs

My Tent or Yours (Sup) (lost) and Zarkandar (CH) £15 @ 2/1 and 6/1

Overturn (Arkle) (lost) and Grandouet (CH) £10 @ 4/1 and 7/1

Darlan (NR)  and Coneygree (AB) £15

Grandouet (CH) (fell) and Sir Des Champs (GC) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Grandouet (CH) (fell)  and Cue Card (RY) £10 @ 7/1 and 6/1


Added after blog entry:
Hurricane Fly (CH) (won) and Dynaste (Jew) £20 @ 9/4 and 7/4



Each Way Doubles:
Un Atout (Sup) (5pl) (4th)  and Long Run (GC) £10ew @ 7/1 and 13/2

Grandouet (CH) (fell) and Divers (BGP) £10ew @ 7/1 and 33/1

Zarkandar (CH) (lost) and Pendra (Coral Cup) £10ew @ 5/1 and 14/1

Zarkandar (CH) (lost) and Boston Bob (RSA) £10ew @ 4/1 and 9/2 (NRNB)


£1 Lucky 15:
Simonsig (Arkle) Evs (won)
Boston Bob (RSA) 8/1
Cue Card (Ryanair) 6/1
Coneygree (AB) 8/1

(+709.53)



03/03/2013

Cheltenham Thoughts - 9 Days

I didn't have a bet yesterday but found the action fascinating nonetheless. Last season at the Scottish Grand National meeting at Ayr the Paul Nicholls trained Pacha Du Polder was most impressive in taking a Grade 2 Novice Chase and he started this campaign as one to follow for a lot of people. I kind of think this had a fair amount to do with his trainer identity and in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree at the back end of October he went off ludicrously short in an event won by the high class For Non Stop. Two poor runs in the mud followed and he went off at 18/1 in an ordinary looking handicap at Newbury yesterday back on good ground and he once again impressed with his jumping finally back on a decent surface. I think this indicates that there will in all probability be horses running at the Festival shortly who have gone under the radar somewhat given the underfoot conditions we've had nearly all winter. Indeed, the aforementioned For Non Stop is one such animal and he remains very backable at 20/1 for the Ryanair. Another is the Ian Williams trained Barbatos who had an excellent season novice hurdling in 2011/12. He ran well twice behind Fingal Bay and won a hot looking event from Battonier on New Years Day at Cheltenham (Battonier later won the 2012 version of the contest At Fishers Cross scored in on Trials Day this season). Barbatos picked up an injury subsequently and at one stage was around 10/1 for the Neptune. The horse has run only once this season on unsuitably soft ground over an inadequate trip and he looks very well handicapped on his novice form. He has entries in the Coral Cup and the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle. His rating of 137 means he's far more likely to run in the latter and I've taken 33/1 NRNB at Bet365.

I've also added Module in the Jewson that opens Thursday's card. This race really looks like cutting up with my original fancy Oscar's Well increasingly looking like staying at home and Dynaste probably going for the RSA. I wasn't impressed with Captain Conan in the Scilly Isles and think he'll struggle up the hill at this trip. If Nicky Henderson didn't have Simonsig for the race Captain Conan would be running in the Arkle. That has to be a negative. The Mullins trained Aupcharlie is next in the betting but looking at his form I can't see how two and a half miles on decent ground will bring about the best in him. He was only just outstayed over three miles on soft ground by Back In Focus (who is the epitome of a dour stayer) at the Lexus meeting. Module has decent hurdling form at Cheltenham on goodish ground and looks a fine jumper of a fence who will be suited to this test. He needs to improve to take a hand at the finish but he's unexposed and entitled to do so. This is one of the less competitive events of the week and he's very backable at 10/1.

EDIT 4/3:
I might be adding bets every day or two from now on as well as topping up existing ones but as we're so close to the Festival rather than writing too many entries I'll just add them on to the list and post my thoughts on the day of the race.
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Supreme:
My Tent or Yours £90w @ 42/10
Jezki £25w @ 58/10

Arkle:
Arvika Ligeonniere £30w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:
Grandouet £10w @ 12/1
"Greened up" for £47.19 (Backed @ 9.38, laid @ 8.43)
Grandouet £50w @ 6/1 (NRNB) Stake returned if Hurricane Fly wins race
Zarkandar £40w @ 9/2

Cross Country:
Bostons Angel £40w @ 103/10
Shalimar Fromentro £10w @ 37/1

RSA:
Boston Bob £35w @ 97/10

Bumper:
Pure Science £15w @ 16/1

Jewson:
Module £20w @ 10/1

Ryanair:
First Lieutenant £25w @ 10/1 (NRFB)
Finian's Rainbow £25w @ 105/10
For Non Stop £10ew @ 20/1 (NRNB)

World Hurdle:
Reve De Sivola £15ew @ 10/1
Bog Warrior £10ew @ 11/1 (NRNB)

Albert Bartlett:
Coneygree £130w @ 92/10

Gold Cup:
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 8/1
First Lieutenant £15ew @ 12/1 (NRNB)
Long Run £10ew @ 10/1

Foxhunters:
Chapoturgeon £40w @ 5/1

Martin Pipe Conditional Hurdle:
Barbatos £15ew @ 33/1 (NRNB)

Non Runners - Total of £240 lost (Mainly Flemenstar, Fingal Bay, Spirit Son, Oscar's Well and Clondaw Kaempfer)

Win Doubles:
My Tent or Yours (Sup) and Simonsig (Arkle) £10 @ 20/1 and evs

My Tent or Yours (Sup) and Zarkandar (CH)  £15 @ 2/1 and 6/1

Overturn (Arkle) and Grandouet (CH) £10 @ 4/1 and 7/1

Grandouet (CH) and Sir Des Champs (GC) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Grandouet (CH) and Cue Card (RY) £10 @ 7/1 and 6/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 10/1 and 14/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) and Sizing Europe (Ryan) £10 @ 11/4 and 7/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) and First Lieutenant (Ryan) £10 @ 11/4 and 5/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) and Far West (Triumph) £10 @ 11/4 and 6/1

Pure Science (Bumper) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 16/1 and 8/1

Captain Conan (Jewson) and Silviniaco Conti (Gold Cup) £10 @ 6/1 and 9/1

Oscar's Well (Jewson) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 10/1 and 8/1

Coneygree (AB) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 12/1 and 4/1

Chapoturgeon (Fox) and Cristoforo Colombo (2000 (Gns) £10 @ 5/1 and 12/1

Each Way Doubles:
Un Atout (Sup) (5pl) and Long Run (GC) £10ew @ 7/1 and 13/2

Grandouet (CH) and Divers (BGP) £10ew @ 7/1 and 33/1

Zarkandar (CH) and Pendra (Coral Cup) £10ew @ 5/1 and 14/1

Zarkandar (CH) and Boston Bob (RSA) £10ew @ 4/1 and 9/2 (NRNB)

Bostons Angel (XC) and Module (Jewson) £10ew @ 10/1 and 10/1

For Non Stop (Ryan) and Kid Cassidy (GA) £5ew @ 20/1 and 14/1

£1 Lucky 15:
Simonsig (Arkle) Evs
Boston Bob (RSA) 8/1
Cue Card (Ryanair) 6/1
Coneygree (AB) 8/1