Festival:Graded Chases

Bob's Worth and First Lieutenant 

I'm talking Queen Mother, Ryanair and Gold Cup here obviously. The two mile Championship is Sprinter Sacre's for the taking and he was awesome again last Saturday. He's the best two miler I've seen.

The Ryanair is wide open and competitive looking and my initial fancy for this was Finian's Rainbow who I backed in his Arkle defeat in 2011 but left alone last year. He learned to settle better last season though and doesn't need to lead now. The Ryanair looked the best option for the horse as it's a bit pointless taking on a monster from your own stable but he's only had the one run on unsuitable ground so far this campaign so enthusiasm is tempered. The one horse who looks tailor made for this particular race is First Lieutenant who seems to always find one or two too good for him when running over three miles plus. He just failed to see out the trip in the Lexus and probably set too fast a gallop in the Hennessy at Newbury but he loves Cheltenham and this trip short of three miles is ideal for him. Unfortunately connections seem to be aiming him at the Gold Cup but with Sir Des Champs in the same ownership I still feel things might change and for that reason I recently took 10/1 (non runner free bet) with Victor Chandler, a bet and concession I have used more than once this season for the Festival.
Other possibles for the race include the likes of Cue Card, Champion Court, Riverside Theatre and Flemenstar but the Ryanair is the one race at the Festival where it's most difficult to predict the line-up for even six weeks out. For that reason the NRFB concession is one I really like. Ta Victor.

In the Gold Cup I have a position on Flemenstar that doesn't look as attractive as it once did and a small bet on Sir Des Champ at a decent price that may or may not be topped up depending on other results at the Festival earlier in the week. These two meet once again in the Irish Hennessy on Feb 9th and we'll know more about them after that contest. Whatever happens I expect a big improvement from Sir Des Champs once he gets to Cheltenham again. He was foot perfect jumping those formidable fences last March in the Jewson.

Ryanair Chase:
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 10/1
First Lieutenant £25w @ 10/1 NRFB

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 8/1

Doubles:

Grandouet (Champion Hurdle) and Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and Flemenstar (Gold Cup) £10 @ 8/1 and 7/1

Captain Conan (Jewson) and Silviniaco Conti (Gold Cup) £10 @ 6/1 and 9/1

Cheltenham Trials Day and Leopardstown - 26th Jan

It's been so long since we've had a good day's racing in the UK and today we get spoiled with a fantastic card at Cheltenham featuring the usual trials for some of March's big races and also the Victor Chandler Chase that was lost last week at Ascot. With Sprinter Sacre in the line up that is a contest not worth getting involved in punting wise but two others are good betting heats.

I waxed lyrical about Coneygree earlier in the week and although the trip he faces today in the Classic Novices Hurdle is short of his optimum I think the price differential between himself and the top class The New One is excessive. The Twiston-Davies horse looks an amazing prospect but more as a chaser than a hurdler in my opinion and I think either today or in the Neptune in March he will find one too good for him just like Denman did in 2006. Coneygree is a fantastically enthusiastic front runner (a long distance Overturn if you will) and he will trade a lot shorter in running than he is at the moment. He is therefore a good back to (partial) lay proposition.

In the Cleeve Hurdle I'm firmly in the Reve de Sivola camp. It looks a bit of a two horse race and I'm far from convinced Oscar Whisky will stay and he shouldn't be favourite. I've backed the Nick Williams horse through the Racing Post app which means I get a free bet to my stake if he's second to to Oscar Whisky. The overnight rain will suit Reve de Sivola over this trip and he's a confident selection.

Over at Leopardstown Arvika Ligionnaire once again takes on Oscar's Well and I hope they both come out of the Irish Arkle well and on target for Cheltenham. In the 2.15 there I'm having a small bet on Mount Benbulben. He was behind Marito last time out at Naas over two miles but the longer trip they tackle today will suit my selection more and his jumping seems to have improved which is the key to this horse over fences as he has a monstrous engine.

Classic Novices Hurdle:
Coneygree £80w @ 29/10 and £30 lay IR @ 6/4 (lost)

Cleeve Hurdle:
Reve De Sivola £50w @ 5/2 (won)

Boylesports.Com Novice Chase:
Mount Benbulben £50w @ 5/2 (lost)

(+873.9)

Festival:Novice Chasers

Overturn

The Novice Chasers look a bit of a mixed bunch this year, with the RSA in particular looking a bit threadbare in terms of quality.

In saying that though the Arkle remains one of the most exciting races of the week and I think nowadays it rivals the Arc as my favourite race of the whole year. At the start of the season I was of the opinion that Simonsig was way too short at around 4/1 for this seasons renewal for all his undoubted promise and I wanted to be against him. The reason I chose Arvika Ligeonniere rather than Overturn as the creature to take him on was price related. The Mullins horse was 10/1 after his impressive rout in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse in early December whilst Overturn was 8s after his win in a beginners chase at Sandown in November. However, Simonsig has looked so imperious in his two outings thus far that I'm of a mind to just leave the race now with that small bet on Arvika. Maybe a slight top up as the Festival approaches and the hype for Simonsig increases. It's hard to see the grey not winning.

Another grey heads the RSA market but I have rather different thoughts regarding Dynaste's chances. He's done nothing wrong thus far in his chasing career but RSA could be a slog this year with lots of staying types in the race and I just don't think the race will suit him. All his wins have come in small fields with relatively modest gallops before a bit of a sprint to the line. I'm happy to take him on with Boston Bob at a double figure price. He headed the market at the start of the season with Fingal Bay (who I did prefer at that stage) and although he has had just the one outing and was only workmanlike in that victory the ground was desperate at Navan that day and he will come on loads for it. He has an entry at the weekend before his Festival prep in the PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown on the 9th Feb and I fully expect him to be in the 4 or 5/1 price range after that date. The race seems choc full of plodders and a horse who looks all wrong for the race. I'm confident Boston Bob will go close.

The Jewson that opens Thursday's card has gone to the Irish since it became a graded contest a couple of years ago and I'm hoping that trend continues as my selection is trained by Jess Harrington. Oscar's Well was a high class hurdler who has taken well in the main to fences this season but like a few horses I have on my Cheltenham portfolio I believe the better ground he is likely to encounter in March will suit him far more than the horrible winter ground we have seen most of this Jumps season. But for a blunder at the last hurdle in the 2011 Neptune Oscar's Well may well already be a Festival winner and he ran a good race in the Champion Hurdle last year as well. Over fences he's looked a quick, agile jumper most of the time (he did come down on his second start in bottomless ground) and I think two and a half miles on decent ground will be the making of him as a novice chaser. His trainer has hinted it's possible he could miss the Festival for a run in the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse and for that reason part of my bet is now with Victor Chandler and his non runner free bet concession.

Lastly, the picture up top is of Overturn rather than one of the horses I actually have in my Ante-Post list because Sprinter Sacre apart he's my favourite horse in training. This despite the fact that I have never won a bean on him.

Arkle:

Trifolium £10w @ 27/1 (NR)

Arvika Ligeonnaire £15w @ 10/1

RSA:

Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Boston Bob £25w @ 10/1

Fingal Bay £60w @ 13/1 (NR)

Jewson:

Oscar's Well £30w @ 14/1 and £20w @ 10/1 (NRFB)

Doubles:

Boston Bob (RSA) and Flemenstar (Gold Cup) £10 @ 8/1 and 7/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 10/1 and 14/1

Captain Conan (Jewson) and Silviniaco Conti (Gold Cup) £10 @ 6/1 and 9/1

Oscar's Well (Jewson) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 10/1 and 8/1

Festival:Novice Hurdlers

Coneygree

I thought for my next few pieces regarding Cheltenham I'd split them up into the different categories the races come under. The Novice Hurdlers look an exciting bunch this year and as ever there is very little form that ties in the British horses with the Irish raiders. Therefore you're looking for horses who look the part and who give the impression the unique tests the Festival bring will suit them. The Supreme over two miles on the opening day looks a good renewal at this stage but it's not a race I go to town on and I don't think I've ever backed the winner truth to tell. That said I'm kind of against two or three at the head of the market which gives me an angle to work on. Jezki is the favourite and looks a nice prospect but at 5/1 just looks too short in such a hot heat. The same comment applies equally to Un Atout who was impressive at Naas yesterday but beat nothing imo. The race at Cheltenham in the Autumn that saw Dodging Bullets beat River Maigue looked overrated to me at the time so I'm swerving those two also. That leaves me with My Tent or Yours who impressed with his attitude, hurdling and physique in his impressive win at Huntingdon recently. He looks the sort of animal who will really appreciate a proper ding dong battle on good ground and I took 12s after this latest win  for small money as he isn't a totally guaranteed runner with his trainer having so many options in the race.
In the Neptune on the second day of the meeting The New One is now a firm favourite after really impressing in his last race at Warwick. This Twiston-Davies horse is a strong looking chasing type with a big shoulder on him and I think he'll be vulnerable in a fast run race over the smaller obstacles. When I see horse like this at short odds for this race I'm always reminded of Denman who was beaten by Nicanor in the 2006 renewal. I backed Clondaw Kaempfer for this contest way back in October and although he's weakened in the market since then after not completing in the Challow at Newbury I remain confident he has a good chance in the race as he has yet to race on good ground, a surface that is sure to suit him given his pedigree and action. I got a bet off at Victor Chandler that gives me a free wager if he doesn't run in the race. Not as good as a non runner no bet but not far off. He looks sure to be 16/1 plus on the day if he gets there and I'll be plunging in each way.

Finally we have the Albert Bartlett over three miles on the final day of the meeting and in Coneygree we pretty much have my banker of the Festival. I've been so impressed with this horse when I've seen him run and the sky looks the limit for him. He's an exuberant jumper of a hurdle who sort of reminds me of a long distance Overturn and it's surely only his relatively unfashionable connections that have him still at 8/1 for this race rather than the 7/2 or 4/1 that he should be. He looks nailed on to me and I have been topping up since my last entry. Every race at the Festival takes a lot of winning but some are more competitive than others. I fancy Grandouet for the Champion Hurdle at similar odds to Coneygree but that contest is a lot harder so staking levels will be different.

I also have a few doubles in place that involve these horses.

Supreme Novices Hurdle:
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 11/1

Neptune Novices Hurdle:
Clondaw Kaempfer £25w @ 13/1 and £25w @ 20/1 (NRFB)

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle:
Coneygree £80w @ 9/1


Doubles:

My Tent or Yours (Sup) and Simonsig (Arkle) £10 @ 20/1 and evs

Oscar's Well (Jewson) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 10/1 and 8/1

Coneygree (AB) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 12/1 and 14/1

Darlan (CH) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 4/1 and 8/1

Pure Science (Bumper) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 16/1 and 8/1

Festival in Two Months

This time in a couple of months we'll be on the eve of the Festival and as ever as time goes by I top up some of my positions, open up the odd new one and keep the old fingers crossed that injuries stay away.

At the moment I think Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre are the only market leaders who look bomb proof and Hurricane Fly and Dynaste are two I am really keen to take on. The former had his limitations exposed last season and is very beatable, the latter isn't an RSA type.

I'm having more multiple bets this season and there are a core of horses - Grandouet, Boston Bob, Oscar's Well and Coneygree I think are still attractively priced and worth coupling together in the hope of hitting one out of the park.


Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Arvika Ligeonniere £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Grandouet £35w @ 95/10

Neptune:
Clondaw Kaempfer £25w @ 13/1 and £25w @ 20/1 NRFB

RSA:
Our Father £10w @ 14/1
Boston Bob £25w @ 10/1

Jewson:
Oscars Well £30w @ 14/1

Ryanair:
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 10/1

World Hurdle:
Reve de Sivola £15ew @ 10/1

Albert Bartlett:
Coneygree £50w @ 95/10

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 8/1

Non Runners - Total of £110 lost (Mainly Fingal Bay and Spirit Son)

Doubles:

Grandouet (Champion Hurdle) and Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and Flemenstar (Gold Cup) £10 @ 8/1 and 7/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 10/1 and 14/1

Captain Conan (Jewson) and Silviniaco Conti (Gold Cup) £10 @ 6/1 and 9/1

Oscar's Well (Jewson) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 10/1 and 8/1

Coneygree (AB) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 12/1 and 14/1

£1 Lucky 15:
Simonsig (Arkle) Evs
Boston Bob (RSA) 8/1
Cue Card (Ryanair) 6/1
Coneygree (AB) 8/1

Lanzarote Hurdle

The guvnor has won the last two editions of this race and in Un Bon P'tit Gars he has a leading contender once again. This nice looking gelding was impressive enough in a novice hurdle at Uttoxeter in October. Of course it wasn't a really good race but a couple of the placed horses have come out and won since and he selection won the contest very easily and has an engine. He has no weight for this and is worth chancing at a stand out price of 10/1 at Ladbrokes.

Lanzarote Hurdle:
Un Bon P'tit Gars £40w @ 10/1 (NR)

(+848.9)

Welsh National

This rearranged fixture is one of my favourite races of the jumps season although it is usually devilishly difficult to find the winner. To be honest it's not the highest quality of renewals and the best bit of form seems to be the Hennessy/Badger Ales line which ties in short priced favourite Teaforthree and the Nicholls trained Michel le Bon. The former's credentials are very solid - he won the four miler at the Festival and ran well enough at Newbury on his first run of the season but at 3/1 he is very short and I think Michel le Bon has a similar chance on the book but is more than double the odds. For a ten year old he is lightly raced and has had injury issues but ran on really well in the aforementioned Badger Ales to finish around three lengths behind The Package. That horse ran in the Hennessy off an eight pound higher mark and managed to get in the frame so the form looks solid.

Of course 3m5f on heavy ground over this undulating track is a huge and unique test and I can't be positive my selection will thrive on it for all I like his form claims. It comes down to whether or not I'm willing to chance him at the price and at 9/1 I am because it does look a sub standard renewal and he looks a horse with a decent prize in him off 144.

Welsh National:
Michel le Bon £60w @ 9/1 (lost)

(+888.9)