31/07/2013

Goodwood - 31st July

Yesterday I mentioned that I'd backed Toronado for the Sussex Stakes not long after his rather luckless defeat at Royal Ascot but that his price had gone since then and I was left with a rather measly £12 on at 7/2. Well, he's drifted to 9/4 this morning so I have been topping up. His rivalry with Dawn Approach does remind one of the battles Henrythenavigator and Raven's Pass had in the same races a few years back and there was a perception then as well that the latter horse would never get his head in front. That was erroneous. I still hold the opinion that Toronado was the better animal in the St James's and the price differential this morning is too great.

I also stated that I was keen on Declaration of War for the race and that is still the case although Toronado's drift has swayed me a bit. I see the O'Brien horse as more a secondary selection now but I have taken 11/2. He's in the same ballpark formwise as the two principals and is a touch of value although I do think the WFA scale favours 3yo's over a mile at this time of the year. They get 8lbs and that's a couple too generous in my opinion. His Queen Anne form is red hot.

Sussex Stakes:
Toronado £40w @ 26/10 (won)
Declaration of War £40w @ 11/2 (lost)

(-58)

30/07/2013

Goodwood - 30th July

Pleased to see the rain arrive at Goodwood as it favours two or maybe even three of the horses uppermost in my mind for this Glorious Festival.

I backed the John Gosden trained Nabucco for the John Smith's on the strength of his hard fought win in a Newmarket handicap on Irish Derby day only to see him not declared at the 48hr stage. I presume that may have been due to the fast ground. He only set a modest pace that day and on paper looked a bit flattered by the result, but I have a hunch this colt will be better served setting a better tempo and on this track (one that is better suited to front runners than the straight July course) I expect him to do just that. He's second top weight but again, this track is a good one for carrying welter burdens and everything seems primed for a good effort today. The wide draw is a negative I'll admit but it isn't death like it will be for anything highly drawn in the Betfred Mile on Friday as a jockey has that little bit longer to sort their mounts out.

Nabucco is my only bet of the day but I'm already involved ante-post on the aforementioned big handicap on Friday and the Sussex Stakes tomorrow. I backed Toronado for small money not long after his unlucky defeat in the St James's Palace but the price has gone and I'm more keen on Declaration of War now. The hype merchants have been on overdrive in billing this contest as pretty much just a duel between the Hannon 3yo and Dawn Approach. On a line of form via Mars I think DoW has a chance of getting involved at the business end of the race and I'm hoping that 6/1 is available in the morning.

Cape Peron might finally get his ground on Friday if we get anymore rain and I've added an ante-post single to the double I already have him in for the Betfred Mile.

Bet365.com Handicap:
Nabucco £30w @ 88/10 and £15pl @ 18/10 (2nd)

(-122)

--
Sussex Stakes:
Toronado £12w @ 7/2

Betfred Mile:
Cape Peron £25w @ 12/1
Cape Peron and Sky Hunter(Arc) £10dbl @ 12/1 and 33/1



28/07/2013

Deauville - 28th July

Well, I got the King George completely wrong yesterday. I didn't rate Novellist through his win at Saint-Cloud and he turned in a deeply impressive performance. That being said with Cirrus Des Aigles running way below form It wasn't a fantastic renewal and the German horse is too short for the Arc now. Ektihaam was ridden by his jockey like he was pacemaking for another contender. Daft tactics.

The Group 1 Prix Rothschild today at Deauville sort of has a nice betting shape to it with Elusive Kate looking vulnerable with any cut in the ground. It's listed as Good to Soft but the track had a half hour thunderstorm late yesterday afternoon and I'm taking her on.

Giofra was behind her in the Falmouth but it wasn't just the fast underfoot conditions that were against her in that race. The four runner field was taken along at a gentle tempo by the winner and I feel the bigger field today coupled with more suitable ground conditions can see the Royer-Dupre mare reverse placings. She's not actually had the chance to run over a mile on soft or good/soft since her win in the Falmouth last season and at 7/1 she's worth a go today.

I've also backed Duntle as cover at 6/1. This filly has past the post in first place in her last five races. She's a model of consistency and deserves a Group 1 after losing the Matron Stakes last year in the Stewards room. I prefer her to the 3yos lined up for the race. Kenhope, Peace Berg and Topaze Blanche all ran in the Prix Sandringham at Chantilly in June and they all look decent enough but the first named was put in her place at Royal Ascot by Sky Lantern and that filly apart I remain unconvinced by their quality.

I would feel more comfortable betting in this race if I knew exactly what the ground was like but it must surely be softer than it was last season at this Festival when Elusive Kate ran well twice on good ground. A thunderstorm is a thunderstorm after all.



Prix Rothschild:
Giofra £45w @ 7/1 (lost)
Duntle £25w @ 6/1 (lost)

(-119)




27/07/2013

Ascot - 27th July

King George day is one of my favourite dates in the Flat calender. Not just because of the big Ascot showdown but also because you know that Glorious Goodwood and York are around the corner and even if the season isn't going that well the Jumps are approaching from a distance.

I backed Ektihaam each way for the big race not long after he slipped and unseated his jockey in the Hardwicke Stakes over course and distance at the Royal Meeting. He'd have won impressively that day if his previous form in front of eventual winner Thomas Chippendale is any guide and this is a horse who has made some strides this season yet still seems underrated. He wasn't far behind Al Kazeem first time out and left that form behind when stepped up in trip in a listed race also at Ascot next time up. That wasn't a fantastic race but he really impressed me that day and he remains relatively unexposed at 12f. His regular pilot has decided to ride Eclipse runner-up Mukhadram in the Group 2 at York instead of the selection and that has kept his price honest. I don't factor jockey choices into my betting.

Crack French Gelding Cirrus Des Aigles is naturally by far the most likely of the contest but he's seven now and was lacklustre last time out. I don't think he's one to oppose lightly but I would think he is more likely to put in a poorish effort than St Nicholas Abbey was. Unfortunately that animal's career is now over. Hopefully he'll make a full recovery and go onto stud.

I'm not overly fond of any of the other runners in the race. Trading Leather won a poor Irish Derby and I'm unconvinced he'll stay 12f fully against battle hardened older horses. Novellist will need rain and is overrated for his win in the race CDA debuted in at Saint-Cloud and Hillstar beat a non staying Battle of Marengo over course and distance last time out (form let down by the same horse since) and he shouldn't be shorter in the market than Ektihaam - who I do believe is the main danger to the favourite.


King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes:
Ektihaam £20ew @ 12/1 and £20w @ 8/1 (lost)

(-49)




19/07/2013

Curragh - 20th July

For the second straight Saturday despite lots of meetings in the UK my only bet is outside these shores. I took 8/1 about the Alain de Royer-Dupre trained filly Chicquita for the Irish Oaks on Wednesday and I'm very confident she'll at least be placed. She ran a cracker for one so inexperienced in the Prix de Diane recently and was beaten by a top class winner of the race in Treve. Like I've already noted her pedigree suggests she'll appreciate this step up in trip and the Curragh being a notably stiff track is a good thing as well.

For me she has the second best form going into this contest behind Epsom Oaks winner Talent and yet is maybe fifth choice in the market. Mandatory bet material. I have topped up this evening.

Irish Oaks:
Chicquita £20ew @ 8/1 and £25w @ 13/2 (minus rule 4 deduction) (won)

(+11)


17/07/2013

Irish Oaks

With word coming through that classy French trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre has confirmed Diane runner-up Chicquita for the fillies classic on Saturday evening I had to take the 8/1 about her. On form I'd make her second favourite behind Epsom winner Talent. She as no match for Treve at Chantilly but ran on with plenty of gusto from the rear for a clear cut second and being by Montjeu this step up in trip as well as the stiffer track will really suit her. I've backed her each way because I was impressed with the aforementioned Talent in our Oaks. The race could also cut up with other participants shorter in the market not guaranteed to run, all in all a recipe for a pretty much guaranteed place scorer at least with a touch of fortune.

Irish Oaks:
Chicquita £20ew @ 8/1

13/07/2013

Newmarket and Longchamp - 14th July

I was a bit fortunate to collect yesterday with Elusive Kate carrying Sky Lantern across most of the July course but I believe the best filly won on the day. Another Brucie bonus was the 9/4 I took at Hills being paid at 3/1.

Despite the cluttered theme of today's action with good cards at Ascot, Newmarket and York I can't find a bet in England now my two selections for the John Smith's aren't involved. I was tempted by Shea Shea in the July Cup but 4/1 in a very competitive race is a bit tight so I'm leaving it.

My one bet then is at Longchamp where the exciting Flintshire takes on Derby also rans Ocovango and Battle of Marengo in the Grand Prix de Paris. I took 7/2 when a relatively new firm called Racebets opened a market on the race (the first layers to do so) but it turns out they were way out of line with those odds as he's around 7/4 now. I should have had more than a pony on but I was confident similar odds would be available today. I've topped up slightly at that 7/4 but in all honesty that isn't a great price and I certainly wouldn't be involved without my ante-post position. I'm not convinced Battle of Marengo or Ocovango properly stay 12f, the former worn down at Ascot in a Group 3 by a horse who had previously been running in handicaps and the latter not finishing his race that well at Epsom. Flintshire however has bags of scope at this trip and I expect him to put a big marker down for the Arc in a few months.

John Smith's Cup:
Lahaag (NR) £20
Nabucco (NR) £45

Grand Prix de Paris:
Flintshire £40w @ 3/1 (won)

(-316)




11/07/2013

Newmarket - 12th July

I took 3/1 about Elusive Kate for tomorrow's Falmouth Stakes the day before the declarations were made because I didn't expect Giofra to run on the fast ground they'll encounter but Duntle was the filly that has been scratched from the race. I'm happy with that as she was a bit of an unknown quantity and ultimately the bet hinges on whether or not my selection can hold off Sky Lantern. I think she can as this race will be run far differently than the big field 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes that the Hannon filly has won this season. As well as the 3/1 I have taken 9/4 at Hills this evening, a bet that will be refunded if Elusive Kate finishes second.

Hopefully John Gosden will have her fully tuned up for this event. He's done me no favours this season with Elusive Kate needing the race she had at Ascot and he's now pulled Nabucco as well as Lahaag out of the big handicap at York on Saturday. Not pleased.

Also on Saturday I have taken an early 7/2 about Flintshire for the Grand Prix de Paris. I already have him onside for the Arc at 20/1 and although this is a step up in class he looks a horse with bags of scope and I'm unconvinced his main opponents on Saturday (Ocovango and Battle of Marengo - both of which were shorter with the bookie I placed the bet with) actually stay 12f.

Falmouth Stakes:
Elusive Kate £40w @ 3/1 and £40w @ 9/4 (mbs) (won) (best odds guaranteed, paid @ 3/1)

(-371)

Grand Prix de Paris (Longchamp, Saturday)
Flintshire £25w @ 7/2



09/07/2013

July Meeting

Just a quick one. The Falmouth Stakes on Friday strikes me as a good betting race at the moment. Impressive as Sky Lantern was in the Coronation she was flattered in my opinion coming from off the pace in a race that was run at a fearsome tempo and I want to take her on at a short price. I backed Giofra in the race last year but on far faster ground I prefer the filly she beat into second that day this time around. Elusive Kate ran very much like she needed the race first time out in the Queen Anne, showing up well before appearing to tire in the last furlong and I think 3/1 is a tidy price. I've decided to step in now because I have a hunch that Giofra might not run given the lack of rain we're having at the moment. She's a nice filly but a mile on fast ground is not what she needs. Duntle is respected but 7/2 is about right given this step up in class.

Elsewhere I like Shea Shea in the July Cup but am not in love with the price at the moment and Trade Commissioner tempts me back at 7f in the Bunbury Cup. If he's declared I will back him.

Falmouth Stakes:
Elusive Kate £40w @ 3/1

08/07/2013

Ante-Post

Despite backing Al Kazeem on Saturday the race let me a little flat as I really expected a good run from The Fugue who had her perfect conditions.

I only need one decent winner to get me back on track but this whole calender year has been such a struggle and I just haven't had the winners I need for decent profit.

Things hopefully will change of course and I was down last year until a good Autumn saved me but the poor Cheltenham and Royal Ascot meetings I had has taken a fair bit of my enthusiasm away, especially given how some of my bets went down.

Yesterday evening I took 16/1 about Lahaag for the big handicap at York on Saturday. He's an animal that's been on my horse tracker since his excellent second (front two clear) in a race over course and distance in May and I thought the John Smith's was a perfect race for him. However his trainer hasn't left him in at the five day stage. I suppose that's a tip in itself for his stable companion Nabucco who won a Newmarket handicap nicely enough a week or so ago. I get the feeling the modest pace they went that day didn't really suit him so 14/1 is acceptable enough given the likelihood he'll improve in a hotter race like this.

Speaking of stable companions, Sky Hunter misses the Grand Prix de Paris this weekend because Fabre runs Ocovango and Flintshire instead. The latter holds the former on a line through a horse called Park Reel and given the weird shape of the market for the big race in October (none of the front four or five in it appeal for one reason or another) the Abdullah horse has been added to my portfolio.

John Smith's Cup:
Lahaag £10ew @ 16/1
Nabucco £15w @ 14/1 and £15ew @ 16/1

Sussex Stakes:
Toronado £12w @ 7/2

Betfred Mile:
Cape Peron and Sky Hunter (Arc) £10 dbl @ 12/1 and 33/1

King George VI and QE Stakes:
Ektihaam £20ew @ 12/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Gold Ship £15w @ 25/1
Sky Hunter £25w @ 42/1
Flintshire £15w @ 20/1
Gentildonna £10w @ 33/1
Bravodino £5w @ 76/1

---
King George:
Al Ferof £20w @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10

World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1




06/07/2013

Sandown - 6th July

I did say in my entry a couple of days ago that I would in all likelihood I would be betting again in the Eclipse Stakes today at the Esher track and Hills enhanced price of 3/1 about Al Kazeem has been taken for a pony. I see the race being between that horse and The Fugue with Mars as the man danger. The horses in front of supposedly the Ballydoyle second string at Ascot were of far higher quality than that which Declaration of War beat in the opening race of that meeting and I think 11/2 is a touch of value about the 3yo. I'm a bit all-in on the race with my two main bets and I have put Mars in a couple of doubles. Wentworth was very eye catching in the Britannia Stakes and although I like him for the mile handicap earlier on in the Eclipse card his price in conjunction with an iffy draw means he isn't main bet material.


Eclipse:
The Fugue £50w @ 49/10 (lost)
Al Kazeem £50w @ 5/2 (won)

Wentworth (Coral Challenge) (lost) and Mars £15 dbl@ 9/2 and 11/2

Mars (lost) and Cirrus Des Aigles (King George) £10 dbl@ 11/2 and 4/1

(-611)

04/07/2013

Eclipse

When the market for this race was unveiled my initial thought was that I wanted to be with The Fugue at around 5/1. She ran very well at the Royal meeting where she as anchored towards the rear in a relatively slowly run Prince of Wales's Stakes before finishing to great effect, ending up around 3 lengths behind Al Kazeem. However I read in one or two places after that contest that she was going to revert to races against her own sex and that put me off backing her ante post for Snadown. She has been declared for the race however and pleasingly the presence of Declaration of War who was supplemented I believe (I was away in Spain last weekend so am not 100% sure) means her price has held up. In fact the Queen Anne winner being the hype horse that he is also means favourite Al Kazeem, who was 6/4 ten days or so ago for this, is now available at over 2/1 on the exchanges. I've taken some of that as cover.

The aforementioned Prince of Wales's Stakes wasn't a particularly good renewal this year but it was a shed load better than the Queen Anne, which with the American horse Animal Kingdom not running his race and Elusive Kate tiring in the last furlong on her first outing of the season was more Group 2 or even 3 in quality. A lot of Ballydoyle runners are priced up on the effusiveness of the trainer's comments rather than the nuts and bolts of their form and at a very short looking 4/1 Declaration of War makes the market from a betting point of view and I've managed to snatch just short of 5/1 about Gosden's filly. I'll see how the market plays leading up to the race but I anticipate stepping in again.

Eclipse Stakes:
The Fugue £40w @ 49/10
Al Kazeem £30w @ 22/10