Goodwood - 31st July

I'm thoroughly enjoying the Olympic Games but tomorrow Glorious Goodwood starts and so for a little while I'll be tearing myself away from all the strange sports I never usually watch.

One of the big angles I like to take advantage of when it comes to Flat racing is backing under appreciated foreign horses with underrated form who tend to go off at bigger odds than they should. I got a nice result when Giofra won the Falmouth at the start of the month but somehow neglected to back Arc winner Danedream when she won the King George a week or so ago. The German trained filly was freely available at 10/1 for the big race despite owning the single best piece of form in the field. Crazy. Ultimately I fancied Sea Moon so much for the race that when it came to covering I went with the biggest danger rather than the contender who was trading at the best odds from a value point of view.

The Gordon Stakes throws this angle up again tomorrow when the Peter Schiergen trained Deutsches Derby third Girolamo takes on six others in a decent renewal of the race. That race was run on good ground for a change so tomorrow's under foot conditions will not present a problem. The winner that day, Pastorius, franked the form in no uncertain terms when running away with an all aged event over 10f at Munich yesterday despite looking like a horse who didn't totally appreciate the soft ground. German horses are certainly becoming more of a threat in the big events away from their homeland in the last couple of years and my selection tomorrow doesn't seem to have a whole lot to beat. I think our 3yo colts are much of a muchness and whilst the Gosden trained colt Michelangelo has promise and is unexposed he really shouldn't be 6/4 for this. Frankel's half brother Noble Mission is also shorter than Girolamo in the betting but he was beaten by a horse who had been running in handicaps at the Royal meeting in the King Edward VII Stakes and I just don't rate him. I know I have the value in this race so let's just hope he comes home in front.

Gordon Stakes:
Girolamo £70w @ 53/10 (lost)


(-990)

York - 27th July

I fancied Planteur strongly for the Arc a couple of years back but he is a horse that has failed to live up to the promise he once showed. Tomorrow at York however he looks a tidy price at 4/1 in the Group 2 York Stakes over an extended mile and a quarter. Last time out at Ascot he ran a decent enough race when he was just under six lengths behind So You Think in the Prince of Wales Stakes at the Royal meeting. He was under pressure some way out in that race but was up against high class animals and should find things a lot easier in this race. Indeed if he'd been ridden out the back in a similar position that Farhh and Reliable Man occupied I believe he'd have been closer as trying to go with the winner when he puts the hammer down is not as easy as just trying to place and being produced as one or more of the early leaders tires. The trainer has voiced concerns about the drying ground on the Knavesmire and it does concern me a tad as well but with the amount of rain we've had all summer I can't see it being that fast. Good to firm it may be but surely underfoot there shouldn't be any jar in the ground. The opposition isn't that strong for a Group 2 and if my selection is anywhere near his best I expect him to win.

Planteur £70w @ 4/1 (Bet voided, non-runner)


(-920)

Ante-Post Update

I was disappointed with Sea Moon's run yesterday, I'm still not sure how much of his poor placing was down to bad tactics and how much to me just over estimating his form/potential. But what's done is done and I do think the race yesterday opens up an opportunity with regard to the Arc. I'm always against animals who run in the King George when it comes to Paris in October and if you look at the odds as they stand now:

3/1 Camelot
6/1 Danedream
7/1 Nathaniel
10/1 St Nicholas Abbey

None of them appeal. Camelot is St Leger bound and his trainer has never won the race with a 3yo. The other three all ran yesterday and as I pointed out that is not ideal prep for the race. I've added the 3yo Valyra to my portfolio for the race. She's a lightly raced filly who was impressive in the Diane (she pulled clear with Beauty Parlour in a very good renewal) and she is bred to appreciate a mile and a half. As good a performance as it was for Danedream to bounce back and win the King George I don't think the form is super hot and she won't have the advantageous wfa allowance when she defends her crown in October.

Betfred Mile:
Bronze Angel £25w @ 168/10

Arc:
Beauty Parlour £15w @ 15/1
Orfevre £15w @ 18/1
Valyra £15w @ 16/1



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Arkle:
Trifolium £5w @ 25/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £25w @ 14/1

RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £30w @ 113/10

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1


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1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1 

Ascot - 21st July

Tomorrow's King George looks to me like the best renewal for some time with a whole host of classy older horses, including foreign animals, taking part and I have had Sea Moon in mind for the race since before his Hardwicke win. Indeed I risked a whole five pounds on him at 14/1 the day before that victory. He has a similar profile to Harbinger and was almost as impressive in his win at the Royal meeting. I think he was better than the bare result that day as he went for home quite early in the straight.
Eclipse winner Nathaniel is the market leader and is respected and I have hedged on him by putting him in a double with Valyra for the Arc (the Aga filly was impressive in the Diane and is value at 14s with the Ballydoyle horses at the top of the market for that race all being criminally short in the betting)

St Nicholas Abbey is one of those horses and his form does look better going left handed. He's somewhat overrated in my opinion and I consider Arc winner Danedream a bigger danger. She needs to bounce back from a poor run in France last time out however and whilst she's a threat if I'm honest Nathaniel apart none of the others worry me overmuch.

Sea Moon £125w @ 4/1 (lost)

Nathaniel £15w dbl with Valyra (Arc) @ 11/4 and 14/1 (lost)


(-920)

Newmarket 13th July

I'm not a great fan of this meeting. I have a poor record at the track and so if I do bet there stakes are reduced.

I think Giofra is a decent win and place bet in the Falmouth Stakes this afternoon. She was impressive on good ground in the Prix D'Harcourt in April before finding the mighty Cirrus Des Aigles much too good for her on heavy in the Ganay. I had hoped the rain would stay away last night but that wasn't the case and the ground is soft all round. My selection does handle cut but I would have been a tad more confidence on better ground. Naturally Golden Lilac is a huge danger and she is a worthy favourite - but I think the price differential between the two fillies is a tad excessive. I think the rest of the field are much of a muchness.

Giofra £25w/£15pl @ 9/1 and 16/10 (won)


(-780)

Ante-Post Update

I was impressed with Nathaniel in yesterday's Eclipse but don't see him as a huge threat to Sea Moon in the King George in a fortnight. He won a poor renewal of the race last year and the two week gap between the races this year is a negative for him. My selection for the race has drifted a tad and I have topped up.

Bonfire's poor run in Nathaniel's race is another nail in the coffin for the 3yo Colts this year. And yet Camelot continues to be a short priced Favourite for the Arc in October. As well as ropey looking form his trainer has never won the race with a 3yo - the inference from that being he leaves the race behind them over the summer. I don't like my Arc fancies running in the King George and I have added the Japanese 4yo Orfevre to my portfolio. He's an exciting colt who won his countries triple crown last year and for me he's overpriced at the moment.

Lastly I mentioned the Marcus Tregoning trained Bronze Angel in one of my Royal Ascot entries as being a horse to look out for after his exciting run in the Britannia Handicap. He is priced up for the big mile handicap at Glorious Goodwood (used to be the Golden Mile) and I've taken some 16/1. This is very much a draw race so I won't be stepping in for a normal bet until this is made.

King George:
Sea Moon £55w @ 48/10

Betfred Mile:
Bronze Angel £20w @ 16/1

Arc:
Beauty Parlour £15w @ 15/1
Orfevre £15w @ 18/1


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Arkle:
Trifolium £5w @ 25/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £25w @ 14/1

RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £20w @ 10/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1


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1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1

Ante-Post Update

Just a quick one, I backed Sea Moon in the Hardwicke and was most impressed by the style of his victory. Indeed, if his jockey had held onto him longer he'd have won by a lot further and I feel he's the likely winner of the King George over course and distance in three weeks time. I took a double figure price about him for the race (but only for a fiver) on the day before the Hardwicke and have topped up since. St Nicholas Abbey is the favourite but I think Stoute's horse is a better animal and is far better suited to Ascot than his rival.

King George:
Sea Moon £40w @ 5/1

Arc:
Beauty Parlour £15w @ 15/1


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Arkle:
Trifolium £5w @ 25/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £25w @ 14/1

RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £15w @ 10/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £30w @ 12/1


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1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1