Epsom - 1st June

I was enormously impressed with Vow's turn of foot when she won the fillies trial at Lingfield a few weeks back and took 10/1 about her for the Oaks that evening. She ran green when veering left but I feel that was immaturity rather than any inherent quirkiness that might effect her chances at Epsom tomorrow and I topped up at 6/1 a couple of days ago. Maybe isn't the market leader for the race anymore but at around 7/2 she's still rank bad value and her cramped odds make the race from a punting point of view. She travelled like a miler in the 1000 Guineas and I can't see her being suited to this mile and a half. The Fugue is the current favourite and I respect her chances enough to cover. She's bred to stay this trip and has enough of a chance to worry me. Of the others the Godolphin filly Kailani should go well but even though she has won this year already I vowed after the horror show of the Guineas that I wouldn't touch one of the stables for a big race unless he or she had the form categorically to go close. This is not the case here. The vibes are bad for Kissed from Ballydoyle who probably won't get her ground and the others all look much of a muchness. In summary I really like Vow, think her trainer is still underrated when it comes to Group races, and feel she's nailed on to at least place.

Vow £20ew @ 10/1 and £30w @ 6/1 (lost)
The Fugue £30dbl with Camelot (Derby) @ 3/1 and 4/6 (lost)


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Irish 1000 Guineas

Homecoming Queen looks a tough nut to crack in today's Irish 1000 Guineas but conditions are radically different in this race to what she faced at Newmarket and whilst she's the likeliest winner I like La Collina at 9/2. This filly has won at the track and will surely come on for her run at headquarters three weeks ago where she was outpaced and lost her position when the winner went on but kept on well to finish fifth. She's a filly who should stay 10f and I just think first time out she didn't have that speed that one or two others had when the pace hotted up. Interestingly at the time her jockey started rowing away as she lost her position Maybe's pilot was still motionless - an indication that whereas La Collina will be better over further Maybe has the look of a miler. She's a poor value favourite for the Oaks next Friday and I'm looking forward to taking her on in that race. Anyway, the Curragh's stiff mile round a turn will suit La Collina more than Newmarket's long straight and she's a sporting each way bet for all that Homecoming Queen holds her on form. I'll be surprised if she's out of the places.

La Collina £25ew @ 9/2 (lost)


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Irish 2000 Guineas

Nothing new to add to my post earlier in the week re Parish Hall and his claims at the Curragh tomorrow in the Irish 2000 Guineas. My main hope for the horse is he turns into a really live Derby contender but I think he can win this en route.

Parish Hall £28ew @ 6/1 (NR)


EDIT 26th May 2.30PM.
I've just returned home from work only to find that unfortunately Jim Bolger has announced that Parish Hall has a leg infection and misses both today's race and the Derby next week. Very disappointing news.
I posted earlier in the week that I respected Trumpet Major and I did feel he was the main danger to Parish Hall. He ran a decent enough race in the 2000 Guineas on ground that was probably softer than he likes. His time when winning the Craven stakes was actually five seconds faster than that recorded by Camelot at Newmarket. This suggests the ground was quicker in the Trial than it was in the Classic and I think the fast ground he'll encounter today will really suit him. Hannon's horse is a pace setter and he is a decent back to lay proposition in a race where the favourite, Power, has to be taken on given his dire run in the 2000.

Trumpet Major £60w @ 9/2
IR Lay placed @ 3/1 for £20 (lost)


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Classic Thoughts

Parish Hall preps for the Derby at the Curragh on Saturday in the Irish 2000 Guineas and is priced at longer odds than I expected. He'll be at his best over further than a mile this year but the Curragh is a stiff track and at 6/1 he's a sporting each way bet. I can't see him out of the first three but he might be tapped for toe by one or two of his more speedier bred rivals.

Of his rivals I fear Trumpet Major the most. He ran well in the Guineas but I felt he may have been up a pace setter in a race where they went a tad fast. Hermival was given a very nice toe on the far side by my selection Abtaal at Newmarket and I think he was flattered by his placing. Takar is your usual under priced John Oxx creature taking a big step up in class and Power was pretty much last in the 2000 Guineas but is being priced up as if that never happened. In short the last three named are poor odds and they give me an angle on the race as I do believe Parish Hall should pretty much be favourite.

My bets for Epsom have not changed since my last entry.

Irish 2000 Guineas:
Parish Hall £28ew @ 6/1

Oaks:
Vow £20ew @ 10/1

Derby:
Parish Hall £10w @ 215/10
Camelot £30w @ 5/2

Newbury - 19th May

Like all racing fans I am excited about Frankel today and hope he wins but in the back of my mind I think he could be vulnerable. This is his first run of the year and he has had an interrupted spring. Excelebration is a top class miler who has had an outing already and if the great one is below his best he could take advantage. I don't think it will happen but if it does at least I could get some sort of financial compensation. It's not the sort of scenario I will throw a lot of money at though because ultimately I hope it doesn't happen so a tenner double seems a good option.

£10w double Excelebration (Lockinge) and Vow (Oaks) @ 3/1 and 5/1 (lost)


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York - 17th May

The Dante Stakes tomorrow on the Knavesmire is the best looking classic trial we've had this year and I think 2000 Guineas also ran Fencing is overpriced for the race at 6/1. He ran well at Newmarket but it was his first race of the season and his pedigree suggests his run there was more of a sighter for targets over further than any real expectation of winning the race. He's bred to be at his over the Dante trip of 10f being by Street Cry out of a mare that won the Prix de Diane and he is trained by John Gosden who has had an excellent start to the season. Bonfire heads the market and is respected but I feel his eye catching  run behind French Fifteen in France last Autumn has been overrated - as runs by horses who get find trouble in running and then fly at the finish so often are. 9/4 is too short and the Godolphin horse who is second fav is readily opposed just on trainer grounds. The boys in blue are having a wretched time and Mandaean is as likely to finish tailed off and never heard of again than actually take a hand in the finish. It's happened before.

I'm having a wretched time myself on the punting front at the moment but I never give in and always stay disciplined. I've dropped my stakes a tad but I'll keep betting and my fortunes will turnaround.

Dante Stakes:

Fencing £50w @ 6/1 (lost)


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York - 16th May

A good meeting starts on Wednesday at York and a look at the Duke of York Stakes has uncovered a bet. The Hannon trained Libranno is a bit of an inconsistent beast but he has bits of form that gives him a good chance in this race yet he is trading at around 20/1 on Betfair. He had a lot of runs last year - some good,  some bad - but his best outing was towards the end of the campaign when he was third, carrying a three pound penalty, in the big sprint at Ascot on Champions Day. Behind him that day was a horse called Royal Rock, who ran a nice race when beaten around two lengths giving five pounds to The Cheka and Mayson at Doncaster in March. Those two animals take on Libranno tomorrow yet are a lot shorter in the market despite that line of form. A line that gives Libranno the beating of them. He seems to run poorly when either the ground is too soft or his stamina is stretched. I think 6f on good to soft ground that is drying out slowly is fine but big prices in Group race sprints are not the sort of bets that make me my money so I really am weighting this bet in the place market where I have around 4/1 after commission.

Duke of York Stakes:

Libranno £20w @ 20/1 and £30pl @ 43/10 (lost)


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Epsom Thoughts

 Last Saturday I was quietly confident of a result in the first Classic of the season but did fear Camelot in a big way. I chose the path of having  a small bet on him for the Derby rather than covering my stake in the   Guineas and time will tell if this will pay off. I still like Parish Hall for the race but am worried about him being in neither the Derrinstown or the Dante next week. I wonder if Mr Bolger is prepared to take the horse to Epsom without any sort of prep?

Onto the Oaks. I was really impressed with Vow today in the trial on the Polytrack at Lingfield. She ran green entering the straight and wandered off a true line as well which is a worry for Epsom but she showed a smart turn of foot and although I missed out on the 14/1 she was available at immediately after the race I decided 10/1 was worth a little tickle. She'd have learnt heaps from her run today and hopefully running on the turf at Epsom will help her keep balanced. Today would have been her first experience of running at speed on anything other than grass and it may have contributed to her waywardness. I fear 1000 Guineas third Maybe in this race and for that reason, as well as the possibility my selection may take time to get going in the straight at Epsom if there's a hint of today's shenanigans, she is an each way punt.

Oaks:

Vow £20ew @ 10/1

Derby:

Parish Hall £10w @ 215/10

Camelot £30w @ 5/2

Chester - 10th May

Today was one of the hardest days I've had to endure for a while on the horses. I knew that the ground wasn't much of an issue with Overturn and the weight he was carrying didn't bother me either. I always favour top weights at tight, turning courses like Chester and I was so confident of a huge run from the horse. But he kept drifting and so I kept backing him at 11 and 12 and 13 on Betfair - always knowing my angle was correct, that he would lead and he would trade a lot shorter in running. I had lays in place from 6/4 to 5/1 and they were all matched. It was heartbreaking seeing him caught in the short straight.

Anyway, I have to console myself with the fact that I am punting well at the moment. I'm getting the prices and the horses I'm backing are running well. But I have had five seconds since my last winner, three of them at double figure prices.

The theme that seemed to run throughout last year's flat season for me was the steady stream of shortish priced winners I had. I just kept ticking over all year, no really big winners (until Cirrus Des Aigles at Ascot) and no big reverses (Sarafina in the Arc apart) or losing streaks. That sort of betting year is a grind though and I would like some bigger winners this year for a bit of comfort. But, when they come along the good priced shorties have to be taken and tomorrow in the Huxley Stakes we have Questioning rather nicely priced at a little over 3/1 on the Exchanges. This John Gosden trained beast has had a cracking start to the year, beating Twice Over at Headquarters and going close at Sandown last time out on heavy ground. Underfoot conditions are the key to why I think this horse is a bet tomorrow. The recent rain has really got into the ground at Chester and more is forecast before racing tomorrow. Questioning obviously handles deep ground, is in form, his trainer is in form and he should be favourite for this contest. He has a 3lb penalty but that doesn't overly concern me and truth to tell it doesn't looks a particulary competitive event. The trip might be a slight concern but again, Chester is the sort of track where they are always on the turn and this helps conserve staying power. Wigmore Hall is a nice horse but isn't proven on the soft and the Godolphin animal is an easily opposed favourite given that outfits uninspiring start to the campaign.

Huxley Stakes:
Questioning £60w @ 31/10 (lost)


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Chester - 9th May

I was really looking forward to the Chester Cup tomorrow in anticipation on having a nice punt on Overturn at around 11/2. He carries top weight but Chester is the sort of course that favours those at the head of the handicap as it's such a tight, turning track. However the course was hit by 21mm of rain on Monday evening and I think his participation is now in doubt. That's a shame but my bet is in place and if he's pulled out my stake will be returned. He's an enthusiastic front runner who is bound to trade much shorter in running than his SP and so I have IR lays in place.
I think there are one or two at the top of the market who look a bit dodgy and with this race having very good each terms and being very much a contest where a high draw is a huge disadvantage I've backed Tominator as well. This horse hasn't really had the stamina test he clearly relishes since winning the Northumberland Plate last year on good to soft and so with underfoot conditions the way they are and the likely fast pace it looks a race that will really suit him. At around 10s he's a decent each way bet.

Chester Cup:
Overturn £120w @ 6/1 and £20ew @ 11/2
IR lays placed @ 5/2 for £40 and 3/1 for £20 (2nd)

Tominator £25ew @ 10/1 (lost)


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Newmarket - 6th May

Ouch. Close but no cigar today as French Fifteen finishes a close runner-up to Camelot. I'm on a run of seconds at the moment but I keep beating the SP comfortably and if that continues it will eventually start paying dividends. I was very happy with the three I picked for the race and could only see the favourite being the danger. I wasn't covering but did get 5/2 matched on Betfair for the Derby a few minutes before the first classic was run. Some small comfort.

Onto the fillies classic where if anything my position is slightly stronger. I've already posted my thoughts on the race and whilst the vibes about my initial fancy Discourse are all bad (hasn't worked well, doubts about the ground, Dettori going with Lyric of Light) the double I have going on Maybe looks sweet. I have topped up slightly on the Godolphin filly at 14/1 on Betfair because that is just too big a price. Second strings do win big races and the ground is drying out all the time. I'm hopeful rather than confident of a big run from her. The favourite is very solid and I'll be most disappointed if I don't get a return from this race.

Discourse £60w @ 10/1 (lost)
Maybe £35w @ 9/4 and £15dbl with Cirrus Des Aigles (Sheema Classic) @ 7/2 and 11/4 (lost)


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Newmarket - 5th May

My previous entry contained my thoughts on the 2000 Guineas and the draw has since been made which seems to have been kind to Abtaal who is drawn 2 alongside the only other front runner in the field. I'm really confident he will run well and have topped my bet up again.

The race before the first classic of the season is the Jockey Club stakes over 12f. My default setting on races like these is to try and find something to beat the favourite but try as I might I couldn't do it this time. Meandre is the horse who heads the market and actually looks worth a tickle at 9/4. He had decent, if not world beating form last season, but is handled by Andre Fabre who has a very good record in this race. Meandre's sire, Slickly, was a classy miler who found his best form as a 5yo and I think this in conjunction with Fabre's penchant for improving horses as they advance in age means Meandre will likely progress this year. His rivals in the race are a mixed bunch but the best of them (Dunaden and Masked Marvel) both carry 5lb penalties for their wins in the Melbourne Cup and St Leger last year. The Stoute trained Fiorente looks a possible danger. He's unexposed but seems underpriced as second favourite.

Jockey Club Stakes:
Meandre £60w @ 9/4 (lost)

2000 Guineas:
Abtaal £60w @ 14/1 (lost)
French Fifteen £30w @ 145/10 (lost)
Born to Sea £30w @ 11/1 (lost)

Guineas Thoughts

I'm very much looking forward to the first classics of the flat season and 2000 Guineas day in particular is one of my favourite days of the year. I got involved in both markets last month and so far so good really. All the horses I've backed are on target for the two races and I'm confident of a good start to the season. In the 2000 I am heavily against the favourite Camelot. His form doesn't warrant his short price, his pedigree strongly suggests he's need further to be seen at his best and even his trainer is a negative. Aidan O'Brien doesn't hard train his horses for the 2000 Guineas with so many races to follow in a long season and he admits that aiming St Nicholas Abbey at the race a couple of years back ruined the horse for the year. Camelot is from the same sire and won the same race impressively as a 2yo. He has to be taken on and with him taking so much of the market up at around 6/4 I have three to go to war with. I backed both Abtaal and French Fifteen for the race before they ran in the Prix Djelbel early in April and they both ran well enough in that contest given that it was being used as a pipe opener. Having that run in the bank could be a big factor on Saturday with the ground set to be riding on the slow side. These are young horses who will be racing in tiring conditions after all. Abtaal showed a smart turn of foot when winning the Prix Thomas Bryon last year at Saint-cloud from French Fifteen (who didn't settle at all well with the race being run at a slow pace) and as is the case with a lot of foreign contenders for races over here he and the horse he beat were being offered at over the odds for the race throughout the winter and spring. I accept that one of the reasons for this was the doubt over whether the 2000 or the Poulains was the Classic target but at big odds it's worth taking a punt. The excellent news is it looks very likely they will both be declared for the race on friday and I'm sitting on a couple of good prices and I have topped up since my initial bets. I have also backed Born to Sea for the race. This is a big heavy topped colt who will love the ground and is heavenly bred being a three parts brother to Sea the Stars. He got injured during his last race as a 2yo but looks a colt of some promise and is trained by one of the best in the business.



Onto the 1000 Guineas. I have both the front two in the market in this race. Maybe, who is pretty short now, I put in a double with Cirrus Des Aigles before the big meeting in Dubai at the end of March and with the first leg coming up I have a good position on her. Details of the bet is posted. I topped up on the filly at 9/4 after CDA won the Sheema.

I took just over 8s on Discourse in mid March and that bet stands as it is at the moment. Godolphin see her as more of an Oaks type but her pedigree somewhat contradicts this view. She's only had a couple of runs and with soft conditions underfoot likely now I can't say I'm very confident about her chances. I had hoped they were going to get a run into her but that hasn't happened.

2000 Guineas:
Abtaal £40w @ 16/1
French Fifteen £30w @ 145/10
Born to Sea £30w @ 11/1

1000 Guineas:
Discourse £40w @ 85/10
Maybe £35w @ 9/4 and £15dbl with Cirrus Des Aigles (Sheema Classic) @ 7/2 and 11/4