31/12/2012

End of Year Thoughts

Overall I've had a good year's punting and the racing has been excellent. I particulary enjoyed my trips to Aintree in April, Newbury in February and Sandown just this month. It was my first visit to the two southern  tracks but I've been going to Liverpool to watch racing for over twenty years as you can see from the Race card below and the course is just so much better than it was back in the day.


This time last year I was in a hole during that Jumps campaign but largely turned it around because of a good Festival. I've since had a profitable summer on the level and am well up for this Jumps season and I really would like to up the staking but other things in my life haven't run as smooth. I've had a four figure dental bill recently that dented the old bankroll but somewhat but another good Cheltenham in March should result in me upping the bet level in the Summer.

Speaking of the Festival, things haven't been running smooth in the ante-post dept recently but there will be opportunities the closer we get to March and of course during the meeting. There are a few market leaders I think will be well worth taking on and I remain confident of coming out of the four days in front.


Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Arvika Ligeonniere £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Grandouet £25w @10/1

Neptune:
Clondaw Kaempfer £25w @ 13/1

RSA:
Our Father £10w @ 14/1
Boston Bob £25w @ 10/1

Jewson:
Oscars Well £20w @ 16/1

Ryanair:
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 10/1

Albert Bartlett:
Coneygree £15w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 8/1

Non Runners - Total of £110 lost

Doubles:

Grandouet (Champion Hurdle) and Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and Flemenstar (Gold Cup) £10 @ 8/1 and 7/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 10/1 and 14/1

Captain Conan (Jewson) and Silviniaco Conti (Gold Cup) £10 @ 6/1 and 9/1

Coneygree (AB) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 12/1 and 14/1











29/12/2012

Newbury - 29th Dec

Initially I was devastated with Flemenstar's defeat in the Lexus yesterday but watching the race multiple times since has me thinking more positive about the horse. No, he probably won't be aimed at the Gold Cup this season but I think he was too heavily restrained yesterday and a return to his normal tactics of bowling along in front will help him see off inferior rivals in future before they have a chance of staying on past him. His superior jumping and travelling ability have to be utilised better. I was also very impressed with the way Sir Des Champs stayed on after clouting a few fences and think he is a big danger in the Gold Cup as he surely will jump better at Cheltenham where he was faultless in the Jewson last March.

My ante-post book for the Festival is looking a bit ropey now and today Clondaw Kaempfer runs in the Challow at Newbury. This is a horse who has won twice on deep ground this season and has looked impressive in doing so despite the impression his running action gives that decent ground will suit him more than the mud - he doesn't pick his legs up that high and almost floats over the ground. His sire gets plenty of good ground horses as well. Unfortunately the going at Newbury is heavy and this contest today is a step up in class as well so I wasn't thinking he'd be a bet under these conditions but a lot of support has come in for the Jonjo O'Neill trained Taquin du Seull who has good form on deep ground over this sort of trip. This support has resulted in Clondaw drifting from an initial sort of 6/4,7/4 to the 23/10 I've taken on Betfair. I've also put a small IR lay in at a short price as if my selection does get beat it will probably be by being slightly outstayed in these stamina sapping conditions.

Challow Novice Hurdle:
Clondaw Kaempfer £60w @ 23/10 and an IR lay request of £20 @ 5/4 placed. (lost)

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28/12/2012

Leopardstown - 28th Dec

The Lexus Chase at Leopardstown today looks the highest quality race run during the Christmas period with Flemenstar taking on Sir Des Champs again with Tidal Bay, Pandorama and Hidden Cyclone also in attendance. I've been in the Flemenstar for the Gold Cup camp since his effortless romp at Fairyhouse in April where he showed his effectiveness on decent ground. Sir Des Champs did have excuses in their first meeting in the John Durkan at Punchestown but the way Andrew Lynch put two lengths between the two horses just by shaking the reigns on Flemenstar as they entered the straight suggests to me that there is a gap in ability between the two animals and it's just a case of whether running over further here today and at Cheltenham in March will allow the Mullins horse to close the gap. I don't think it will.

Tidal Bay's participation will give us a form tie-in with Gold Cup favourite Bob's Worth although the race today is over shorter and that won't suit the Nicholls creature even though the soft ground will. Tidal Bay gave weight to Bob's Worth in the Hennessy and was closing in the latter part of the race.

Flemenstar is bred to stay 3m+ and I expect a good performance today. I gladly took 2/1 when Betfair opened a market on the race.

Lexus Chase:
Flemenstar £40w @ 2/1 (lost)

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27/12/2012

Kempton - 27th Dec

Nick Williams has a couple of his stable stars out today at the London track and whilst I think For Non Stop will go well he's a bit short considering he wasn't foot perfect on deep ground last time out and I prefer the claims of Swincombe Flame in the Mares hurdle. She won the Lanzarote at this track last season and this won't be anywhere near as competitive. Like Reve de Sivola I reckon she'll love a return to hurdles after not enjoying fences.
Mares Handicap Hurdle:
Swincombe Flame £50w @ 9/2 (lost)

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25/12/2012

Boxing Day

Traditionally Boxing Day is one of the biggest racing days of the season and we have an excellent card at Kempton as usual and a very interesting novice chase at Leopardstown as well.

My ante post selections all miss the King George and I'm not getting involved on the day. I think Long Run will probably win with the emphasis firmly on stamina given the underfoot conditions but he isn't a price. I like Cue Card, Captain Chris and For Non Stop as horses but don't think any of them will live heavy going.

Dynaste is favourite for the Feltham and he's had a marvellous start to his chasing career but imo he's a terrible price for the RSA at present and I hope he wins well tomorrow and shortens up again. I have recently added Boston Bob to my ante-post Cheltenham portfolio as I think the layers have over-reacted to his rather ordinary chasing bow the other week.

Simonsig was most impressive late last week in his first outing over fences and he probably deserves to be favourite for the Arkle but Arvika Ligeonniere and Oscars Well clash tomorrow in Ireland and I think the former in particular will be a massive danger to Nicky Henderson's star grey if they both make it to the Festival. Arvika attacks his fences with some vigour and I took initial 10/1 quotes about him after his last race because he looked an ideal type for the Arkle. Oscars Well on the other hand looks the type for the Jewson over further, particulary on better ground.

King George:
Al Ferof £30w @ 10/1 (NR)
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 8/1 (NR)
Sizing Europe Leg 1 of a £10dbl (NR)

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21/12/2012

Holiday Bets

Lots of rain around at the moment and the ground will be very soft at least for tomorrow's card at Ascot and with that in mind I'm turning to an old friend in Reve de Sivola for the Long Walk Hurdle. With Big Buck's on the sidelines now the division he dominated for so long is wide open and I think the Nick Williams horse is capable of making his mark. He was a top class staying novice hurdler with a victory in the Challow and a good effort behind Peddlers Cross in the Neptune back in 2009/10 and after not taking that well to fences in the two seasons since (which included a long time off with a tendon injury) he is back over timber and looked decent enough behind Big Buck's first time out at Newbury where after being outpaced initially he stayed on well albeit a fair way behind the winner. Reve's stamina comes into play far more over hurdles than it ever did over fences because he was never comfortable over the larger obstacles and expended too much energy getting from one side to the other. His Challow victory was on heavy ground (with Finian's Rainbow amongst his victims) and I think he's worth a bet at 5s tomorrow. Favourite Smad Place is respected but his best form is not on ground as soft as he'll encounter tomorrow.
With Al Ferof out of the King George and the prospect of deep ground looking certain at Kempton on Boxing Day I'm pretty much resigned to my fate in the race but we'll have to see. I think Long Run will likely win now but he's not a bet at under 3/1. I'm hoping to gain compensation in the Lexus at Leopardstown where I managed to get 2/1 on Flemenstar on the machine a few days ago. Sprinter Sacre aside he's the most exciting chaser in training and I expect him to take this step up to three miles in his stride.
Long Walk Hurdle:
Reve De Sivola £50w @ 5/1 (won)

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King George:
Al Ferof £30w @ 10/1
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 8/1
Lexus Chase:
Flemenstar £40w @ 2/1

17/12/2012

Ante-Post Carnage

No other word for the title of this post. Very sad news today about Al Ferof and Big Buck's missing the rest of the season. Put that together with Fingal Bay's injury and suddenly my ante-post book looks a lot worse than it did last week. I'm gutted about Al Ferof especially, he was most impressive in the Paddy Power last month and that form was boosted by Walkon on Saturday. I was very confident of a big run in King George and also had a huge price about him for the Gold Cup for small money.

These things happen in ante-post land though and you just have to get on with it. The only bit of good news was the excellent run by Grandouet in the International Hurdle. After a year on the sidelines he gave weight to a race fit Zarkandar on ground softer than ideal for him at Cheltenham and wasn't too far off winning the race. He has a big chance in the Champion Hurdle - hopefully he'll get there.



King George:
Al Ferof £30w @ 10/1 (NR)
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 8/1

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Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Arvika Ligeonniere £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Grandouet £20w @11/1

Neptune:
Clondaw Kaempfer £25w @ 13/1

RSA:
Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Jewson:
Oscars Well £15w @ 16/1

Ryanair:
Finian's Rainbow £10w @ 10/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1

Non Runners - Total of £110 lost

Doubles:
Sizing Europe (King George) and Clandaw Kaempfer (Neptune) £10 @ 8/1 and 12/1

Grandouet (Champion Hurdle) and Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and Flemenstar (Gold Cup) £10 @ 8/1 and 7/1



11/12/2012

Ante-Post Update




What a weekend. Saturday was my first visit to Sandown and I had a really great time. A fantastic course with great viewing, a nice paddock and they even had a bar that sold Real Ale (please note Aintree.) Speaking of the paddock, that's where I took the shot of Sprinter Sacre from just before his breathless Tingle Creek victory. I'd like to go to as many courses as I can in the future and I have visited fourteen now in England and Ireland but I will return to Sandown again one day.

Almost as impressive as Sprinter Sacre was Flemenstar in the John Durkan at Punchestown on Sunday. I've been backing this horse for the Gold Cup since his win at Fairyhouse in the spring. He's never run in a big field and hasn't raced outside Ireland, all things that kept his price in double figures until recently, but he was so dominant on Sunday against a crack opponent in Sir Des Champs. The Mullins horse was having his first run of the season and would have appreciated better ground and a greater test of stamina, but as they entered the straight Davy Russell was hard at it on the runner-up keeping tabs and Lynch just shook the reigns on his mount and Flemenstar went two lengths clear almost instantaneously. Forget all the excuses, that was just a demonstration of a better horse in action. He jumps like a stag and his sire's best horses are all three miles plus chasers. I can't wait for the Lexus now.

Lastly, I topped up on Fingal Bay for the RSA despite his awful run at Exeter on Friday. He plainly does not like going right handed but his form behind Dynaste at Cheltenham has been boosted and he has yet to be tested under what I think are his optimum conditions - three miles plus in a race run at a decent clip.

King George:
Al Ferof £30w @ 10/1
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 8/1

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Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Arvika Ligeonniere £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
Grandouet £15w @12/1

Neptune:
Clondaw Kaempfer £25w @ 13/1

RSA:
Fingal Bay £60w @ 13/1
Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Jewson:
Oscars Well £15w @ 16/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Al Ferof £5w @ 54/1

Doubles:
Sizing Europe (King George) and Clandaw Kaempfer (Neptune) £10 @ 8/1 and 12/1

Grandouet (Champion Hurdle) and Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and Flemenstar (Gold Cup) £10 @ 8/1 and 7/1

Al Ferof (Ryanair) and Flemenstar (Gold Cup) £10 @ 8/1 and 6/1

07/12/2012

Sandown and Aintree - 8th Dec

I'm writing my thoughts and bets for Saturday's action earlier than usual because I am at work from two and it's pretty much straight to bed afterwards as I'm on the 0658 to Euston in the morning. I've never been racing in London before so am very much looking forward to it. It's not the best card in the world for betting to be honest, especially with Overturn missing from the big novice chase. I think he had the beating of Captain Conan in the Henry VIII and was going to back him accordingly. The Tingle Creek is a mouth watering affair featuring Sprinter Sacre and Sanctuaire and I'm firmly in the Arkle winners camp. At around 4/9 he's not a betting proposition and the only possible bet might be Kumbeshwar in the without the favourite  market on course. It's common enough for these big one on one match up's to never quite play out as one imagines and I can see Sanctuaire making an error or two when push comes to shove and the Alan King horse might be able to take advantage. Let's not forget that Al Ferof made a huge mistake four out in the Arkle when Sprinter Sacre loomed on his outside. He's an intimidating presence. Kumbeshwar is a front runner like Sanctuaire but I imagine he'll be ridden with a tad more restraint in the hope of picking up as much prize money as possible. No idea what price will be available but I'll take anything from 4/1 up. He has won on heavy so will love the ground.

At Aintree I like the claims of Join Together in the Becher Chase over the National fences. I backed him each way earlier in the week when he was 10/1 at Ladbrokes. This second season chaser is a thorough stayer who likes the soft and I think this test will suit him much better than his first race of the season at Ascot where he was outpaced on good to soft over a barely adequate three miles. You never know if a horse will adapt to these fences but if he does he has leading claims. A good novice last year I think a proper stamina sapping test like this race tomorrow will show him to be a well handicapped animal and I expect him to be in the hunt. He is second top weight though and I fear West End Rocker so the place element of the bet is prudent.

Becher Chase:
Join Together £15ew @ 10/1 and £20w @ 8/1 (second)

Tingle Creek:
Kumbeshwar £40w (without Sprinter Sacre) at best available odds on course. (won) (actual bet was a straight forecast @ 6/1)

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03/12/2012

Big Weekend


This weekend potentially sees two incredibly defining match-ups between Sprinter Sacre and Sanctuaire at Sandown in the Tingle Creek on Saturday and Flemenstar versus Sir Des Champs in the John Durkan at Punchestown. I'll be in attendance at the former, my first visit to Sandown, and I am nearly beside myself in anticipation. I expect the Black Aeroplane to deal with Sanctuaire reasonably comfortably and the setting plus the racing and jumping characteristics of these two animals make this the most exciting renewal of the race since the legendary 2004 renewal that featured Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop and Well Chief.
Over in Ireland on Sunday I'll be more tense if anything because I am trying to build up a position on Flemenstar for the Gold Cup. He's a fantastic jumper of a fence and I think ground and travelling worries are overstated in regard to his chances at Cheltenham. Sprinter Sacre aside he's the most exciting second season chaser around imo.

The weekend just gone was a pretty informative one and we had a number of Festival clues to ponder. Bob's Worth won the Hennessy nicely enough and I think he is a worthy favourite for the Gold Cup at this time but I think one or two of his rivals may have too much for him come March and at around 5/1 he seems priced about right to me.
I was quite taken by Arvika Ligeonniere in the Drinmore. He jumped neatly and economically and looks a horse with gears. His action suggests good ground won't be a problem to him (also ran well in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival on decent ground in his novice hurdle days) and I think quotes of 10/1 about him for the Arkle represent a touch of value. Simonsig hasn't been out yet and he's very short for the race considering he has yet to jump a fence. I've been keen to have a go at the race for a while because of this and Willie Mullins horse is the first contender to properly excite me for the race. I think his inflated price might have something to do with the thought that the horse could be a stayer in the making but Mullins has Boston Bob for the RSA and I feel he'd much prefer to win the Arkle than the Jewson and with Arvika Ligeonniere not being owned by Gigginstown the trainer may get his way this time. There is of course plenty of precedent for staying novice hurdlers running over two miles as novice chasers - Simonsig is going down this route and Tiday Bay won the Arkle having been campaigned over longer trips as a younger horse.
Elsewhere Champagne Fever blotted his copybook in the Royal Bond and whilst you could argue the trip was too short he doesn't look as fluent or as classy over timber as Clandaw Kaempfer who has really impressed me with his two victories thus far this season. He won over two miles last time out but looks a staying prospect and is bred to appreciate decent ground. Donald McCain won the Neptune with Peddlers Cross in 2010 and this horse looks just as good at this stage of their respective careers.

King George:
Al Ferof £30w @ 10/1
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 8/1

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Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Arvika Ligeonniere £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
Grandouet £10w @12/1

Neptune:
Clandaw Kaempfer £15w @ 14/1

RSA:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1
Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Jewson:
Oscars Well £15w @ 16/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Al Ferof £5w @ 54/1

Doubles:
Sizing Europe (King George) and Clandaw Kaempfer (Neptune) £10 @ 8/1 and 12/1

Grandouet (Champion Hurdle) and Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1






01/12/2012

Newbury - 1st Dec (Part 2)

I was a bit premature with the blog entry yesterday evening as a study of the Racing Post this morning at work has unearthed another bet. Michael Flips was well touted for the Paddy Power at Cheltenham a couple of weeks ago but he was disappointing in a savage race where only six finished. He's still a well handicapped horse based on his run behind For Non Stop at this track in February and the handicap he's in today is nowhere near as hard as the Paddy Power was. He's second top weight and I always favour the classy horses in races like this. At 10/1 at Victor Chandler I think he's a sporting each way bet.

I've also added First Lieutenant in the Hennessy. I backed him in the RSA last season and detailed earlier in the week why I thought he had claims of reversing the form of that race with Bob's Worth if they met again. At the time I didn't think it would be in this race as the ground looked like it would be soft and First Lieutenant's best form is on a decent surface. The price differential between the two of them for today's race is excessive in any event. I really didn't want more than two horses in such a tough race to be honest but I can't let this animal go at a double figure price on ground that should now suit. He ran a most encouraging race on deepish ground at Down Royal first time out where he battled on once collared by Kauto Stone and today's conditions (soundly run race on goodish ground)  will suit him.

Hennessy Gold Cup:
Magnanimity £35w @ 22/1 and £15pl @ 5/1 (lost)
Frisco Depot £25w @ 13/1 (lost)
First Lieutenant £25w @ 11/1 (lost)

Sportingbet Handicap Chase:
Michael Flips £25ew @ 10/1 (lost)

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