Last day of the meeting and although I'm in front this blog has taken a kicking as my winner in the Hunt Cup was a last minute bet and thus not posted on here. He had form tie-ins with the horse I did back in the race but I preferred Captain Bertie and I don't like chucking money on two or three horses in those type of races. Prince of Johanne went too big on Betfair though ;)
Anyway, today is Black Caviar day and despite the fact that I have a small bet at 12/1 on Moonlight Cloud I do hope the Aussie mare sluices up.
My only proper bet today is Sea Moon in the Hardwicke. He wasn't brilliant first time out but his trainer is very canny and he doesn't generally have his older horses ready first time up unless they're running in a Group race. So Sea Moon struggles to land the odds in a listed contest whilst in contrast Carlton House is impressive in a Group 2. Sir Michael has had a disappointing time of it the last year or so and he doesn't seem to have any good 3yo's so these two colts are very important to him this season. I expect Sea Moon to be up to the task and fit as a butchers dog this afternoon. John Gosden is in cracking form with three winners yesterday and this has crushed Aiken's price in the race. He's a nice horse but he had the run of the race last time out at Chantilly and I expect one of his beaten foes that day, Dunaden, to reverse placings. Indeed I expect the Melbourne Cup winner to be the main danger to my selection.
Talking of Gosden's winners yesterday, Newfangled was very special in the 2yo race and I took some 16s about her for the 1000 Guineas immediately after.
Hardwicke Stakes:
Sea Moon £60w @ 37/10 (won)
Diamond Jubilee:
Moonlight Cloud £15w @ 12/1 (lost)
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23/06/2012
22/06/2012
Royal Ascot Day4
Didn't Opinion Poll run a stormer yesterday? I was gutted he didn't win though. Like last year he was too far back as they entered the straight and he just got tired. He expended so much energy in making up ground that he had nothing left in the last few yards. The winner didn't rally, he just stayed on at the same pace. For me if Dettori had chosen my selection the result would have been different. A couple of times this season I've backed the best horse in a race and not collected (The Fugue is the Oaks was the other) but I do believe that luck evens itself out long term.
The most noteworthy performance of the day was Bronze Angel in the Britannia. Badly drawn and having to race on his own for the last furlong or so Hayley Turner brought him as close to the action as she could in the latter part of the race and he did well to finish third. He lost ground with this manoeuvre but still put a length between himself and the horses behind him as they closed on the line. I'll be backing this horse in his next handicap.
The ground has gone soft after more rain overnight and this morning and I've taken a position on Homecoming Queen in the Coronation Stakes. I'm still not 100% convinced she's the real deal as her Guineas victory did look too Frankel like to be true. But the ground was a lot firmer when she disappointed at the Curragh last time out and at 11/4 this morning she looks overpriced because of that poor run. The ground has come right for her and I expect she'll be very well backed on course and on the Exchanges. I rarely trade but I think there is scope here.
Coronation Stakes:
Homecoming Queen £70w @ 11/4 (Lay bid placed @ 7/4 for £20 IR Keep) (lost)
(-1224)
The most noteworthy performance of the day was Bronze Angel in the Britannia. Badly drawn and having to race on his own for the last furlong or so Hayley Turner brought him as close to the action as she could in the latter part of the race and he did well to finish third. He lost ground with this manoeuvre but still put a length between himself and the horses behind him as they closed on the line. I'll be backing this horse in his next handicap.
The ground has gone soft after more rain overnight and this morning and I've taken a position on Homecoming Queen in the Coronation Stakes. I'm still not 100% convinced she's the real deal as her Guineas victory did look too Frankel like to be true. But the ground was a lot firmer when she disappointed at the Curragh last time out and at 11/4 this morning she looks overpriced because of that poor run. The ground has come right for her and I expect she'll be very well backed on course and on the Exchanges. I rarely trade but I think there is scope here.
Coronation Stakes:
Homecoming Queen £70w @ 11/4 (Lay bid placed @ 7/4 for £20 IR Keep) (lost)
(-1224)
20/06/2012
Royal Ascot Day3
I had a bit of a meltdown when Reliable Man just failed to place in the Prince of Wales earlier today. I thought it was a good bet, and for me he wasn't given the best of rides. Nothing has gone right since Cheltenham but it really is so important to remain positive. I really fancied Captain Bertie for the Hunt Cup and Prince of Johanne had a close form tie in via Fury so I added him on Betfair after much consideration just before the off (I felt it was a little bit of a chasing bet, which I rarely do, but his price was too big)
I was certainly due a winner.
I like Opinion Poll in the Gold Cup tomorrow. He's in rude form, will stay and I think he's improved a tad since his second in the race last year. I think Dettori gave the horse too much to do on that occasion and I expect him to be ridden closer to the pace this time. At over 6/1 on the machine I think he's a good bet.
EDIT: Nice concession from William Hill and the Racing Post. Bet through the latter's App and your stake is returned if your selection is second to Fame and Glory.
It tonked down overnight and is raining right now. This brings Kailani into the equation for the Ribblesdale. She won a listed race at Newmarket on soft at the Guineas meeting and was fancied for the Oaks but she was always at the back in that race, was buffeted a couple or three times in a rough race and was as tidy and graceful coming down the hill as John Terry is in full flight. She has a superb pedigree packed full of stamina and will love the way the ground has turned out. She's by Monsun out of Kazzia who of course won the Oaks and was German bred herself. She'll place at worse.
Ribblesdale:
Kailani £40w @ 84/10 and £20pl @ 19/10 (lost)
Gold Cup:
Opinion Poll £60w @ 64/10 and £30w @ 11/2 (Money Back Concession) (lost)
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19/06/2012
Royal Ascot Day2
I have just the two bets today, Reliable Man in the Prince of Wales Stakes and Captain Bertie in the Hunt Cup.
I've posted my thoughts on both horses in an ante-post update and the only thing to add is that the ground may be a little on the fast side for French horse so I'm more interested in the place element of that bet as So You Think and Carlton House will be tough nuts to crack.
Prince of Wales Stakes:
Reliable Man £20ew @ 15/1 (lost)
Hunt Cup:
Captain Bertie £50w @ 12/1 (lost)
(-1024)
I've posted my thoughts on both horses in an ante-post update and the only thing to add is that the ground may be a little on the fast side for French horse so I'm more interested in the place element of that bet as So You Think and Carlton House will be tough nuts to crack.
Prince of Wales Stakes:
Reliable Man £20ew @ 15/1 (lost)
Hunt Cup:
Captain Bertie £50w @ 12/1 (lost)
(-1024)
Royal Ascot Day1
Up until this morning I didn't think I'd be having a bet on the opening day of this Meeting. But Power has drifted to a backable price in the St James Palace Stakes. He's the best horse in the race for all that the Irish Guineas wasn't that inspiring. He's well drawn and of course his trainer has a magnificent record in this. It's a poor renewal and although I respect Born to Sea that colt has a fair amount to find on form. The rest of the field look very ordinary for a Group 1.
Power £50w @ 5/1 (lost)
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Power £50w @ 5/1 (lost)
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14/06/2012
Ante-Post Update
I've had a poor start to the flat season but feel confident heading into Royal Ascot. The Fugue was an unlucky loser in the Oaks, she was the best filly in the race, and if she'd enjoyed an easier passage I'd have had a nice payout on the double I had her in with Camelot. So I'm hitting the bar but not getting the ball in the net as yet. It's only a matter of time though.
The Royal Meeting starts next Tuesday and I have a couple of bets lined up already. I think the opening day will all be about Frankel and like most racing fans I can't wait to see him in action. It doesn't look a great day for betting however but the Hunt Cup on Wednesday does unearth a horse I'm quite keen on. Captain Bertie was a humdrum handicapper last year as a 3yo but being gelded seems to have been the making of him. In the spring Mile at Doncaster he met so much trouble in running (the field bunched together in a rather unusual way - most straight mile handicaps are more spread out) that he was well out of shot when he got a run finally and finished like a train. I didn't back him when he ran again at Newbury as the ground was on the soft side but he won very nicely nevertheless. The horse in second that day, Fury, is verging on Group class and won a handicap under similar conditions two starts later having gone up five pounds in the meantime. What I liked about Captain Berties run at Newbury was that he went into the lead two furlongs from home and repelled his challengers. I think that's a sign of a horse in rude form and one with plenty in hand of the handicapper. He's 12/1 for Wednesday's contest and I think that's very fair. The other market leaders seem priced up on trainer identity or are a bit exposed.
My second bet so far is in the Diamond Jubilee over 6f on the Saturday. It's a bit of a reach as Black Caviar looks an absolute monster but the French filly Moonlight Cloud is overpriced on Betfair at around 12/1 and I've had a little on her. She came over to Britain twice last year and was luckless on both occasions. In the Guineas her trainer wanted her loaded last but she was bundled in at the start of the process. Mr Head called this "a disgrace" and blamed the started for her poor showing. Later on in the year at Ascot she missed the break over course and distance and by the time she got going Deacon Blues had flown and sewn the race up. Carrying a penalty in the Prix Palais-Royal first time out this season she won impressively for all that her opponents weren't up too much. If Black Caviar fails to run to form my selection is the likeliest animal to benefit the most but I will be adding a place element to my position nearer the day.
EDIT: 16/6 - I have added a couple of bets since originally posting this update. Opinion Poll in Thursday's Gold Cup is the first. Watching last year's race one gets the impression he would have been a lot closer to Fame and Glory if he'd taken closer order as they swung into the straight. The selection lost no ground in the last two furlongs of that race and is in very good form this year. It could be argued the Godolphin horse has even improved and at a little over 6/1 is a good price for the race for all that the Ballydoyle favourite is respected. The other is Reliable Man in the Prince of Wales. It's a bit of a stretch this one but at 14/1 in a race where one or two may yet drop out I think this soft ground horse has a good chance of being placed at least. He tired badly in a pipe opener in the Ganay and last time out the 9f of the d'Ispahan was totally against him. Especially with the lack of pace. This animal has a stayers pedigree but 12f performers have a good record in the race. If Cirrus Des Aigles doesn't run, and his drift on Betfair isn't a good sign, I think my selection has a similarish chance to Carlton House who is ten points shorter in the market. His trainer has stated that this race is his early season target and he's basically just a bit too big not to back.
Outside of Ascot I took a position early on in the Arc on Beauty Parlour. This filly excites me more than almost any other horse in training at the moment (Frankel apart I suppose) and runs in the Prix de Diane on Sunday. Ballydoyle horses are prominent in the betting for the race as you'd expect but St Nicholas Abbey isn't good enough to be priced in single figures and Camelot might go for the Leger. They have dominated the scene early on but come Autumn a lot of their best horses are over the top and they have yet to win the big race in Paris with a 3yo.
Prince of Wales Stakes:
Reliable Man £15ew @ 14/1
Hunt Cup:
Captain Bertie £20w @ 12/1
Gold Cup:
Opinion Poll £20w @ 62/10
Diamond Jubilee:
Moonlight Cloud £15w @ 12/1
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Beauty Parlour £15w @ 15/1
--------------------------------
Arkle:
Trifolium £5w @ 25/1
Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £20w @ 16/1
RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £15w @ 10/1
Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £20w @ 12/1
The Royal Meeting starts next Tuesday and I have a couple of bets lined up already. I think the opening day will all be about Frankel and like most racing fans I can't wait to see him in action. It doesn't look a great day for betting however but the Hunt Cup on Wednesday does unearth a horse I'm quite keen on. Captain Bertie was a humdrum handicapper last year as a 3yo but being gelded seems to have been the making of him. In the spring Mile at Doncaster he met so much trouble in running (the field bunched together in a rather unusual way - most straight mile handicaps are more spread out) that he was well out of shot when he got a run finally and finished like a train. I didn't back him when he ran again at Newbury as the ground was on the soft side but he won very nicely nevertheless. The horse in second that day, Fury, is verging on Group class and won a handicap under similar conditions two starts later having gone up five pounds in the meantime. What I liked about Captain Berties run at Newbury was that he went into the lead two furlongs from home and repelled his challengers. I think that's a sign of a horse in rude form and one with plenty in hand of the handicapper. He's 12/1 for Wednesday's contest and I think that's very fair. The other market leaders seem priced up on trainer identity or are a bit exposed.
My second bet so far is in the Diamond Jubilee over 6f on the Saturday. It's a bit of a reach as Black Caviar looks an absolute monster but the French filly Moonlight Cloud is overpriced on Betfair at around 12/1 and I've had a little on her. She came over to Britain twice last year and was luckless on both occasions. In the Guineas her trainer wanted her loaded last but she was bundled in at the start of the process. Mr Head called this "a disgrace" and blamed the started for her poor showing. Later on in the year at Ascot she missed the break over course and distance and by the time she got going Deacon Blues had flown and sewn the race up. Carrying a penalty in the Prix Palais-Royal first time out this season she won impressively for all that her opponents weren't up too much. If Black Caviar fails to run to form my selection is the likeliest animal to benefit the most but I will be adding a place element to my position nearer the day.
EDIT: 16/6 - I have added a couple of bets since originally posting this update. Opinion Poll in Thursday's Gold Cup is the first. Watching last year's race one gets the impression he would have been a lot closer to Fame and Glory if he'd taken closer order as they swung into the straight. The selection lost no ground in the last two furlongs of that race and is in very good form this year. It could be argued the Godolphin horse has even improved and at a little over 6/1 is a good price for the race for all that the Ballydoyle favourite is respected. The other is Reliable Man in the Prince of Wales. It's a bit of a stretch this one but at 14/1 in a race where one or two may yet drop out I think this soft ground horse has a good chance of being placed at least. He tired badly in a pipe opener in the Ganay and last time out the 9f of the d'Ispahan was totally against him. Especially with the lack of pace. This animal has a stayers pedigree but 12f performers have a good record in the race. If Cirrus Des Aigles doesn't run, and his drift on Betfair isn't a good sign, I think my selection has a similarish chance to Carlton House who is ten points shorter in the market. His trainer has stated that this race is his early season target and he's basically just a bit too big not to back.
Outside of Ascot I took a position early on in the Arc on Beauty Parlour. This filly excites me more than almost any other horse in training at the moment (Frankel apart I suppose) and runs in the Prix de Diane on Sunday. Ballydoyle horses are prominent in the betting for the race as you'd expect but St Nicholas Abbey isn't good enough to be priced in single figures and Camelot might go for the Leger. They have dominated the scene early on but come Autumn a lot of their best horses are over the top and they have yet to win the big race in Paris with a 3yo.
Prince of Wales Stakes:
Reliable Man £15ew @ 14/1
Hunt Cup:
Captain Bertie £20w @ 12/1
Gold Cup:
Opinion Poll £20w @ 62/10
Diamond Jubilee:
Moonlight Cloud £15w @ 12/1
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Beauty Parlour £15w @ 15/1
--------------------------------
Arkle:
Trifolium £5w @ 25/1
Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £20w @ 16/1
RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £15w @ 10/1
Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £20w @ 12/1
03/06/2012
Chantilly - 3rd June
We have a bit of a contrast to Epsom today in France where 20 horses take there chance in the Prix du Jockey Club as opposed to the nine that ran in our Derby.
French Fifteen heads the market but he isn't a guaranteed stayer and I think his proximity to Camelot in the 2000 Guineas is being over factored into his odds here. A similar comment may apply to Imperial Monarch. He's a colt with some potential but Ballydoyle have a terrible record in this race and the feeling that he's better than the normal fair they send to the race just because they had Camelot for Epsom may well be true, but it might also mean he's on a par with Recital or Seville. Big deal.
The Aga Khan normally sends his best horses to Alain De Royer-Dupre but Mikel Delzangles handles his main hope today in Kesampour. Monsieur Delzangles seems to be the up and coming trainer in France and I like Kesampour for the big race today. He's unbeaten in four starts and though he didn't win the Prix Greffulhe by much last time out his jockey never had to get that serious with him and I think there is plenty to come. It's a trappy race that can get very rough because of the amount of runners but at 8/1 on Betfair I think my selection is overpriced becauuse of the O'Brien factor. The best horse doesn't always win here though so I've covered my stake in the place market.
Prix du Jockey Club:
Kesampour £35w @ 8/1 and £15pl @ 24/10 (lost)
(-884)
French Fifteen heads the market but he isn't a guaranteed stayer and I think his proximity to Camelot in the 2000 Guineas is being over factored into his odds here. A similar comment may apply to Imperial Monarch. He's a colt with some potential but Ballydoyle have a terrible record in this race and the feeling that he's better than the normal fair they send to the race just because they had Camelot for Epsom may well be true, but it might also mean he's on a par with Recital or Seville. Big deal.
The Aga Khan normally sends his best horses to Alain De Royer-Dupre but Mikel Delzangles handles his main hope today in Kesampour. Monsieur Delzangles seems to be the up and coming trainer in France and I like Kesampour for the big race today. He's unbeaten in four starts and though he didn't win the Prix Greffulhe by much last time out his jockey never had to get that serious with him and I think there is plenty to come. It's a trappy race that can get very rough because of the amount of runners but at 8/1 on Betfair I think my selection is overpriced becauuse of the O'Brien factor. The best horse doesn't always win here though so I've covered my stake in the place market.
Prix du Jockey Club:
Kesampour £35w @ 8/1 and £15pl @ 24/10 (lost)
(-884)
01/06/2012
Epsom - 2nd June
Another disappointing day today. I was particulary depressed with the ride The Fugue got in the Oaks. She was behind and got badly bumped in a slowly run race and just couldn't make up the ground she lost. I think she will eventually prove herself the best of the field over middle distances.
I think John Gosden may gain some form of compensation on Saturday though, but not in the Derby. I think his St Leger winner Masked Marvel is way overpriced in the Coronation Cup at around 10/1. Indeed on an albeit rather stretching it line of form through Sea Moon it could be argued he has the beating of odds-on favourite St Nicholas Abbey. He had the Stoute horse further behind him at Doncaster than SNA beat him in America in the Breeders Cup. Admittedly Sea Moon had a poor passage in the last Classic but I really don't see there being much difference at all between my selection and the O'Brien animal - Timeform rated them at 126 and 127 last season and Gosden's creature certainly has more scope.
So why the massive price differential? Well, St Nicholas Abbey did win this race last year but he was rather fortunate and didn't look 100% at home on the track - Masked Marvel was down the field in the following day's Derby but he received a bump coming round Tattenham Corner and he plainly showed himself a better horse than his finishing position may have suggested later in the season. The main reason he is a double figure price though is probably his last run, where he was disappointing in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket. That race was run on ground with plenty of cut in it, something which does not suit the horse at all. His trainer has called that race an "expensive bit of work" that will undoubtedly blow away the cob webs. I do think the last run a horse has is somewhat overfactored lots of times in the odds bookmakers make for most given races and in my opionion Masked Marvel will give St Nicholas Abbey all he can handle tomorrow and is a big danger. Certainly more so that Beaten Up, who is way too short at 5/1 for all that he looks a horse of some promise. This is a big step up in class for him and the fact that Masked Marvel is comfortably the second best horse in the race means a proportion of my stake in the race is each way, even with that bet only paying two places.
As for the Derby, I'm gutted Parish Hall misses the race through injury and I'm left with a smallish bet on Camelot at 5/2. He should win but his odds are cramped and it's not worth topping up. The Derby for me is usually a race that is a lot easier to predict than the Oaks and I feel the mileage I have in Camelot's price, if only to a modest stake, coupled with the fact that I see Bonfire as his only legitimate danger mean that it's worth adding the Andrew Balding colt. I would however love to see the Camelot take this field apart en route to a meeting with Frankel later in the season - maybe in the Juddmonte over 10f. One can dream.
Coronation Cup:
Masked Marvel £20ew @ 10/1 and £20w @ 115/10 (lost)
The Derby:
Parish Hall £10w @ 215/10 (NR)
Camelot £30w @ 5/2 (won)
Bonfire £30w @ 56/10 (lost)
(-834)
I think John Gosden may gain some form of compensation on Saturday though, but not in the Derby. I think his St Leger winner Masked Marvel is way overpriced in the Coronation Cup at around 10/1. Indeed on an albeit rather stretching it line of form through Sea Moon it could be argued he has the beating of odds-on favourite St Nicholas Abbey. He had the Stoute horse further behind him at Doncaster than SNA beat him in America in the Breeders Cup. Admittedly Sea Moon had a poor passage in the last Classic but I really don't see there being much difference at all between my selection and the O'Brien animal - Timeform rated them at 126 and 127 last season and Gosden's creature certainly has more scope.
So why the massive price differential? Well, St Nicholas Abbey did win this race last year but he was rather fortunate and didn't look 100% at home on the track - Masked Marvel was down the field in the following day's Derby but he received a bump coming round Tattenham Corner and he plainly showed himself a better horse than his finishing position may have suggested later in the season. The main reason he is a double figure price though is probably his last run, where he was disappointing in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket. That race was run on ground with plenty of cut in it, something which does not suit the horse at all. His trainer has called that race an "expensive bit of work" that will undoubtedly blow away the cob webs. I do think the last run a horse has is somewhat overfactored lots of times in the odds bookmakers make for most given races and in my opionion Masked Marvel will give St Nicholas Abbey all he can handle tomorrow and is a big danger. Certainly more so that Beaten Up, who is way too short at 5/1 for all that he looks a horse of some promise. This is a big step up in class for him and the fact that Masked Marvel is comfortably the second best horse in the race means a proportion of my stake in the race is each way, even with that bet only paying two places.
As for the Derby, I'm gutted Parish Hall misses the race through injury and I'm left with a smallish bet on Camelot at 5/2. He should win but his odds are cramped and it's not worth topping up. The Derby for me is usually a race that is a lot easier to predict than the Oaks and I feel the mileage I have in Camelot's price, if only to a modest stake, coupled with the fact that I see Bonfire as his only legitimate danger mean that it's worth adding the Andrew Balding colt. I would however love to see the Camelot take this field apart en route to a meeting with Frankel later in the season - maybe in the Juddmonte over 10f. One can dream.
Coronation Cup:
Masked Marvel £20ew @ 10/1 and £20w @ 115/10 (lost)
The Derby:
Parish Hall £10w @ 215/10 (NR)
Camelot £30w @ 5/2 (won)
Bonfire £30w @ 56/10 (lost)
(-834)
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