26/03/2012

Grand National

Just a couple of weeks until the big race and although it doesn't hold the place in my heart it did when I was a novice punter I still like to have a dabble. My strategy is to pick out four horses and have one average sized bet bet divided by four.
I had a tenner on Chicago Grey back in November. He won the four miler at Cheltenham last season and whilst he's looked out of sorts this year the National is his target and his run behind Rubi Light last time out was encouraging. I don't normally bother each way in this race but this horse does tend to get behind in his races and I can see him running on at the finish but maybe not catching the leaders.
Becauseicouldntsee fell at the second last year but I can forgive that. He also ran well in the 2010 version of the race Chicago Grey won at the Festival in 2011 and he went on my short list for this renewal of the National when just failing in the Fulke Walwyn on the Thursday of Cheltenham this year. Sunnyhillboy outstayed him up the hill that day but that horse isn't as food a jumper as Becauseicouldntsee and is a lot shorter in the market.
Cappa Bleu has the same connections as State of Play, a horse who has been placed in the National a number of times. The former is a stouter stayer though who ran really well in the Welsh National back in December. He's in good form this year and handles decent ground.
The shortest price of the four I've backed is Junior from the David Pipe yard. This horse is a good jumper with a bit of class who I just think will love the National fences. His form was boosted on Saturday and whilst I worry that he isn't that well handicapped I think this test will really suit him.

None of the market leaders really appeal. Prince de Beauchene is very short and doesn't strike me as a National type at all. Synchronised you couldn't rule out after he won the Gold Cup but I think he's best fresh and I think he might struggle with the fences given his lack of size. Last year's winner Ballabriggs is now too high in the weights as is West End Rocker who has gone up 12lbs for his win at the track in the Autumn. I'm happy with my four selections.

Chicago Grey £10w @ 25/1 and £10pl @ 54/10
Becauseicouldntsee £10w @ 26/1
Cappa Bleu £10w @ 20/1
Junior £10w @ 16/1

24/03/2012

Newbury - 24th March

One of the horses at the top of my to follow lists at the start of the season was Mon Parrain. In winning at Sandown last season and then getting caught up the run in at the National meeting he looked an absolute stag from a jumping point of view. I steamed into him for the Paddy Power at Cheltenham back in November but he jumped poorly and never featured.  Back at that track for his second start he ran better but looked like he didn't quite stay the 26f that day. He runs over the same trip today but I expect Newbury will really play to his jumping strengths and that's the key to why I'm backing him. He'll jump better I'm sure on this flat track and that will help him conserve some stamina. Staying the full distance is not a guarantee and that's why I am attempting to lay some of my stake back in running. If his fencing is as assured as I expect it to be he will trade short on Betfair before his stamina becomes an issue

Mon Parrain £70w @ 11/4 (£20 Lay IR asked for @ 2/1) (lost)


(-340)

21/03/2012

Cheltenham Reflections/ Ante-Post Update

I had a very nice week and managed to turn my season around. I was over a Grand down before I went to Newbury in mid February and with a half decent Grand National meeting I'm hopeful I can finish in the green again.

Overall I'm still disappointed with the season I've had but I know where I went wrong and will endeavor to correct the mistakes I've made. I had a fantastic 2010/11 and feel that I was a bit too confident or even cocky going into this season. This transmitted itself in the volume of bets I placed. I normally have around 50 a Jumps season but this year I'll end up with nearly 70. Too many. I also overrated last year's novice chasers. Wayward Prince, Wishfull Thinking, Captain Chris, Time for Rupert, Medermit. These are animals I've backed on at least two occasions each and none of them have managed to win. I think this year's crop is better but I'll be more circumspect in 2012/13.


The picture above is on order and will shortly be on the living room wall. It isn't just the money when it comes to horse's like Sprinter Sacre landing a bet. I'd first backed him for the Arkle almost a year before and to have a long range position like that work is a great feeling. Simonsig was my other winner of the week and it's interesting to me that both these winners were in uncompetitive races. These are rare at Cheltenham but I have to say that my bets in the more fearsome races were decent as well. Medermit, For Non Stop and First Lieutenant were all placed at decent working men's prices and I think next year I'll be looking at having some each way doubles on bets like these. I've had Festivals in the past with few winners but a lot of places and I have to make these work for me. I've never been an each way punter truth be told but I think they do work when used in multiples. It's well known that they are one of the bookmakers least favourite bets to lay.
Last Sunday I dipped my toe into the ante-post market for next year's jamboree and have taken some 16s about Spirit Son for the Champion Hurdle.

Overall then a positive meeting, a few lessons learnt for the future and a general sense of well being that was not there in December and January. I feel positive going into Aintree and more importantly the upcoming Flat Season. I will confess that when I looked at the odds for the 2000 Guineas at the weekend I'd heard of maybe two of the animals listed. I am more familiar with the Fillies though, and have been watching videos of last year's big 2yo contests over the last day day or two and was taken enough with Discourse to open a position on her. Impressive in full flight, she won the Sweet Solera in the Summer despite pulling early doors. I also like her robust, scopey physique. She seemed to be Godolphin's number 1 in the Autumn judged on her being the main entry for the Fillies Mile before she suffered a slight setback. The stable look like they are on an upward curve with Zarooni at the helm and I see her wintering over here as a big positive as well. Ballydoyle have the favourite for the race in Maybe, but I wasn't overwhelmed watching her to be honest and I feel at bigger odds that my choice is a more backable filly from a stable with a better record in the race and she's less exposed also.

Grand National:
Chicago Grey £10w @ 25/1

1000 Guineas:
Discourse £20w @ 82/10
----
Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £15w @ 16/1

16/03/2012

Cheltenham Festival - Friday

Had an enjoyable day out yesterday but Medermit's reverse really stung. I knew he'd run well but underestimated the winner. His third place added to First Lieutenant's runner-up position and For Non Stop's third have me thinking that dipping into the place market, maybe having the odd each way double or two is the way to go with horse's I fancy at between 5s and 10s in competitive races. I've had Festival's before with plenty of placed horses at those sort of odds and it's something I will incorporate into my betting strategy in future Festivals

Onto today and I have one or two nice chances. The Triumph isn't one of my favourite races but I kind of fell for Baby Mix after his run at Kempton last time out. I did say on a forum I post in that I wasn't impressed with his jumping that day but I subsequently checked out the video of his win at Cheltenham in November where he beat a Nicholls hotpot and he was far more fluent then. He's a big gangly thing but I do like him a lot. I have him ante-post and have topped up but not for huge money as it's a very trappy race. Nick Williams  runs Urbain de Sivola who is one of the highest rated juveniles in the race and is overpriced at around 16s. I took 20/1 NRNB last week as there was a doubt about him running on fast ground but he's still in the race as I type.

In the Albert Bartlett I am still sweet on the chances of Mount Benbulben. He's a big strong type with an engine and whilst I was very disappointed with his run behind Boston Bob at Navan in December I think he has claims of reversing those placings. He cut out his own running that day and according to his trainer returned home sore.A lead and a decent pace will really suit this horse to add to the good ante-post position I have on him Paddy Power have come in with a nice concession whereby if your selection finishes second to the SP favourite your stake is returned. That market leader will be Boston Bob who is massively respected and feared but on the bright side I have him as the second part of an ante-post double with Sprinter Sacre so it looks like I have the race covered.

In the Gold Cup I have Time for Rupert at 16s and China Rock at big prices for a fiver. I've pretty much written off both bets and whilst I want Kauto Star to win I think Long Run will from Synchronised. Get him home safely Ruby.

Finally, last week I posted about Nick Williams runners and my hope that he'd get off the mark at the Festival. That has not happened and in truth he's not gone that close. However, in that entry I neglected to mention Cornas, who runs in the Grand Annual at 5.15. He has decent form this year having gone down narrowly to Medermit at Exeter in the Autumn before being out classed behind Sizing Europe in the Tingle Creek. He's a nice animal but the last thing he is is well handicapped or progressive. That said he's trading on Betfair at 60 to win and 9 to place (four paid out) and that is just too big. Worth a minimum bet I think.

Triumph Hurdle:
Baby Mix £40w @ 7/1 (lost)
Urbain de Sivola £20w @ 20/1 NRNB(lost)

Albert Bartlett:
Mount Benbulben £60w @ 105/10 and £30w @ 8/1 (money back special) (lost)
Sprinter Sacre (Arkle) and Boston Bob £20dbl @ 4/5 and 5/2 (lost)

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1 (lost)
China Rock £5w @ 79/1 (lost)

Grand Annual:
Cornas £10w @ 59/1 and £10pl @ 8/1 (lost)

Non Runners (including one multiple) - total of £165 lost.

(-290)

14/03/2012

Cheltenham Festival - Thursday

Another profitable day despite a few losers and the pleasing thing is the two horses that have gone in have been my two biggest bets.

Really looking forward to tomorrow as it's the day I'll be in attendance. Hope I wont be too warm in my new wax barbour jacket that I bought a bit cheekily with Sprinter Sacre winnings a week before he actually ran.

I think tomorrow's card is the hardest of the week but I have or will have bets in the three main races. The Jewson Novices' Chase kicks things off and I want to be with Peddlers Cross for this. I don't think there is anything wrong with this horse as has been suggested in some quarters recently. The trainer just realised he couldn't best Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle and has gone for the easier race. I think he has a big chance and McCain's form at the moment coupled with the horse's excellent Festival record appeal. There are a few dangers - Crystal Bonus looks a fine, up and coming chaser but his form is hard to quantify and Champion Court has ran well at the course more than once. They're the sort of horses I don't like enough to back but can't readily dismiss either. I don't think Sir Des Champ deserves his position as second favourite though. He beat Hidden Cyclone, a horse I backed at one point for the RSA, at Leopardstown a month or so ago but that horse didn't run anywhere near his level that day and I think the Mullins animal is overrated slightly. My betting strategy for the selection is a bit different as I'm not keen on steaming in at less than 4/1. He's worth a small bet at current odds but I also have him in a two doubles. One ante-post with Chapoturgeon and one at Betfair's SP with Somersby who takes in the Ryanair. Elsewhere in the race For Non Stop is a horse I like and whilst his form overall does not look quite good enough I think he is a good stayer in the making and I can see him flying up the hill. He comes from the stable I follow and I intend to have a small bet on him at the track.

For my money the Ryanair is the most competitive race of the whole week and that spells danger. I do think one of the keys to making money at the Festival and meetings on the flat like Royal Ascot is to somehow find bets on uncompetitive contests. Both my winners this week have barely been off the bridle after all. Races like this where anything up to 6 or 7 animals have a chance are hard to make money out of and I think you have to be involved ante-post so you at least have some mileage at the prices. I have done this with two horses and have mixed results. I've got just over 8/1 about Rubi Light and he's actually a couple of points higher on Betfair right now. Not a bet I'm proud of to be honest and like I said earlier in the week I think single figure prices for horses two and more months away from the Festival aren't the best idea. He has a chance naturally and has improved this year but he made a crucial mistake three out in the race in 2011 and you have to say with the ground being as fast this year it wouldn't be a surprise if he did something similar. On the plus side I've backed Medermit at 20/1 at 12/1 for this and can now top up at 8s with the knowledge that I have a good price. He's a horse I like a lot with good Cheltenham form and he'll be there or thereabouts. Of the others Somersby and Noble Prince are the main dangers but Riverside Theatre, who actually heads the market, is readily ruled out. I don't think he likes the track and is best fresh. Captain Chris runs here rather than the Gold Cup and he might surprise a few people. If Peddlers Cross wins the Jewson I'll have three running for me.

Lastly Big Buck's should win the World Hurdle but Oscar Whisky is the best horse he's faced, and as a speed horse a different type than the Legend normally devours. I backed him at 11/2 last week, have topped up at the same price today and Paddy Power are running a concession whereby if the horse you back is second to Big Buck's they refund your stake. That has to be taken advantage of. I will also put an in-running lay on him at shorter odds before the race. This lay will be kept at the off so may be matched during the race. Big Buck's has a tendency to hit a flat spot during his races and Oscar Whisky is a smooth travelling horse. The less said about my Mikael d'Haguenet position the better.

Win or lose I'm out to enjoy myself tomorrow. The first two days have ensured I will be in front for the meeting and that's all you can ask anyway. I also have a couple of nice bets on Friday to look forward to.

Jewson:
Peddlers Cross £25w @ 37/10 (lost)
Peddlers Cross and Chapoturgeon (Foxhunters) £10dbl @ 9/2 and 5/1
Peddlers Cross and Somersby (Ryanair) £10dbl @ Betfair SP
For Non Stop £25w @ best price on course (lost)
Sprinter Sacre (Arkle) and For Non Stop £10dbl @ 5/4 and 8/1

Ryanair:
Rubi Light £20w @ 82/10 (lost)
Medermit £50w @ 12/1 (lost)

World Hurdle:
Oscar Whisky £60w @ 11/2  (lost)
Oscar Whisky £30w @ 9/2 (Stake back if second to Big Buck's)
Mikael d'Haguenet £15w @ 34/1 and £10w @ 72/10 (w/o Big Buck's) (lost)


(+120)

13/03/2012

Cheltenham Festival - Wednesday

Today we had a fantastic day's racing crowned by Sprinter Sacre achieving what I felt he always would throughout last year. He was hugely impressive in bossing the Arkle and I hope he stays at the top of the chasing game for years to come. The only downer were the deaths of two horses who were undone by firm ground conditions in the Cross Country Chase. They cannot water that part of the track unfortunately and I don't think the race should be run if they have no rain in the week leading up to the meeting.

I have bets in the first four races on Wednesday's card. In the opener Nick Williams runs Alfie Spinner in the four miler for Novices. It's a race for amateur riders and Sam Waley-Cohen get's the leg up on my fancy. Last time out Alfie ran a cracking race, jumping professionally throughout against some high class animals and whilst the trip is a worry I like the way this horse is progressing. Four mile 20 runner novice chases for amateur riders are hardly my bag though so I've not gone mad.

Simonsig I fell for when he was second behind Fingal Bay at Sandown earlier in the season. He's a horse with a huge engine who travels beautifully. The form of that novice hurdle has worked out very well and I backed him for the Neptune and the Supreme at double figure prices not long after it was run. As the form was franked so his prices for both races shortened and I found myself in a position where I could lay back my stake on both races at a nice profit and go in again when his target was confirmed. This I did and have done and so I'm left with a decent bet at just under 5/1. With Fingal Bay injured and Boston Bob running on Friday in the longer event I'm in a great position and very hopeful he'll win.

Rock on Ruby was a surprising winner of the Champion Hurdle earlier this afternoon and the horse that beat him in the Neptune last year, First Lieutenant, I make a decent wager at around 5/1 for the RSA Chase that follows the Neptune this year. I don't take on Grands Crus lightly, he's a fine looking chaser in the making, but he might just be a bit flashy for this - it's the sort of race that tends to go to grinders. So I want to be against him and also Bob's Worth as well. He seems a bit short in the market for me given his form this year and it has to said that his Albert Bartlett win is not looking nearly as good as First Lieutenant's Neptune victory a year ago. He jumped fine at Leopardstown behind Last Instalment over the Christmas period and whereas that horse would have been my first choice for this contest I do think my selection is trading at a backable price. I also have him in a double with Sprinter Sacre.

Finally in the Queen Mother I can't really oppose Sizing Europe who has looked as good as ever this season but I backed Wishfull Thinking for this a month or so ago at 20/1 and whilst I have little confidence in him being able to win the race, he does looks a spring horse to me who jumped really well in the Jewson last year and and I think 3/1+ in the place market is worthy of a bet given the eight runners who take part.

National Hunt Chase:
Alfie Spinner £10ew @ 12/1 and £10pl @ 3/1 (lost)

Neptune:
Simonsig £80w @ 47/10 (won)

RSA:
First Lieutenant £30w @ 56/10 (lost)
Sprinter Sacre (Arkle) and First Lieutenant £10dbl @ 10/11 and 11/2


Champion Chase:
Wishfull Thinking £20w @ 20/1 and £20pl @ 41/10 (fell)


(+385)

12/03/2012

Cheltenham Festival - Tuesday

Here we go then. A week of glorious highs (hopefully) and how the hell did that win lows (inevitably). But that's what make the sport so great. Let's hope first and foremost that all the horses running over the four days return home safe and sound.

Up until yesterday evening it was looking as if I would be involved in only the one race on day one and I thought to myself that that just can't be right, so I did some last minute form cramming after returning home from work and I managed to uncover a bet. The Festival handicap looks a bit of a nightmare and I'm not opposing Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle but the Supreme Novices Hurdle that opens the meeting has a nice punting shape with two or three at the head of the market who look very skinny. Darlan looked like he was running a cracker at Newbury last time out but took a bad fall and he seems priced based on the fact that he would have won that race - and that just isn't certain by any means. Steps to Freedom is next best in the market but the form of his win at the course back in November looks a bit iffy. Indeed the third that day, a horse called Ericht, was beaten a lot further by Montbazon and Colour Squadron the following month. Added to that the fact that Steps to Freedom hasn't actually run since that day has to be a negative. The horse I have backed for the race, Tetlami, is trained like the favourite by Nicky Henderson, and I can only think his perceived status as the stable's second string is the reason he's 14/1 as I write. The aforementioned  Montbazon looked a nice prospect at Newbury last time out and is respected but the horse he gave a 7L beating to that day, Vulcanite, was 3 and half lengths behind my selection on boxing day at Kempton where he received a five pound age allowance. Whichever way you look at it those two animals have similar claims tomorrow but Tetlami is available at five points longer. It's not a race I have any sort of decent record in and I've taken advantage of Bet365 offering enhanced place terms. They're paying 1/4 the first four.

Onto my main bet of the day, and indeed one of the biggest bets I've ever had. I decided Sprinter Sacre was my Arkle horse after the Supreme last year. Physically he just looked by far the best chasing prospect of the big four who contested that wonderful renewal. I took 12/1 when I first saw the odds back on 22nd March and did some topping up at 10s at various points throughout the summer. Like I say physically he looked the complete chasing package but I could only dream at that stage as to how he would actually take to fences. He jumps beautifully and is such an athletic, agile animal that when he gets close to one, as he did when beating Peddlers Cross at Kempton just after Christmas, he just has that ability to sail over it like it isn't there. To me if he gets round he wins. Simple. I'll be very tense tomorrow, but that's part of the buzz. I remember having £25 each way on Subotica at 16/1 for the Arc back in 1992 - a very big bet for me in those days as I was unemployed at the time - and I remember thinking how alive and high I felt as the race was run. Win or lose that feeling is what all gamblers crave.


Supreme:
Tetlami £20ew @ 14/1 (lost)

Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £240w @ 4/1 (won)
Al Ferof £60w @ 5/1 (money back special) (void)




(+127)

10/03/2012

Cheltenham Thoughts 10/3

Three days to go until probably the biggest punting week of my life. I was looking back at my records and I staked £900 last year at the Festival on 20 bets and on the flat at Royal Ascot in 2002 I staked £800 on 9 bets. Those all lost :(
I have some excellent bets this year but have too many non-runners and that is something I'll be looking at and trying to improve next year. My initial thought is that bets on horses at like 8/1 in January are a bit pointless when chances are they'll be 6s or 11/2 on the day. The shorter price is the better value bet because the non-runner element isn't a factor. Next season I really want double  figure prices only so long out from the meeting. 


Since my last post I've topped on the odd horse, added a couple in Oscar Whisky and First Lieutenant and had two or three multiples. Oscar Whisky is the fastest hurdler Big Buck's will have encountered nest Thursday and he has very good form over two and a half miles on deep ground so I think he will stay. I think he has excellent claims in the World Hurdle. I preferred Last Instalment over First Lieutenant for the RSA initially but unfortunately that horse sustained an injury during his last race. The latter won a good renewal of the Neptune last year, loves decent ground and Davy Russell gave cogent reasons as to why he was beaten in the Fort Leney last time out in the preview evening I saw at Leopardstown on Youtube earlier in the week. With Grands Crus looking likely to run on Wednesday rather than the Gold Cup now the race will have a good punting shape as I am against the grey at the price and Bob's Worth shouldn't be shorter than the Gigginstown creature I have now backed.


I don't suppose I have many regular readers but for those that may be out there and like a wager I wish you all the best for next week. It's the finest four days of the year for me. Enjoy.


Tuesday
Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £240w @ 4/1 
Al Ferof £60w @ 5/1 (mbs)
--
Wednesday
National Hunt Chase:
Alfie Spinner £10ew @ 12/1 and £5pl @ 31/10

Neptune:
Simonsig £80w @ 47/10 


RSA: 
First Lieutenant £10w @ 5/1

Champion Chase:
Wishfull Thinking £20w @ 20/1 and £5pl @ 33/10
--
Thursday 
Ryanair:
Medermit £25w @ 16/1
Rubi Light £20w @ 82/10 

World Hurdle:
Mikael D'Haguenet £15w @ 34/1 and £10w @ 72/10 (w/o Big Bucks)
Oscar Whisky £25w @ 11/2
--
Friday
Triumph:
Baby Mix £20w @ 13/2
Urbain de Sivola £20w @ 20/1 NRNB

County Hurdle:
Empire Levant £15w @ 16/1

Albert Bartlett:
Mount Benbulben £50w @ 10/1 

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1
Captain Chris £10w @ 33/1 
China Rock £5w @ 79/1


£20 Multiple: 
Sprinter Sacre (Arkle) and Boston Bob (Albert Bartlett) @ 4/5 and 5/2 

£10 Multiples: 
Boston Bob (Neptune) and Noble Prince (Ryanair) @ 10/3 and 6/1 
Sprinter Sacre (Arkle) and For Non Stop (Jewson) @ 5/4 and 8/1
Sprinter Sacre (Arkle) and First Lieutenant (RSA) @ 10/11 and 11/2 
Peddlers Cross (Jewson) and Chapoturgeon (Foxhunters) @ 9/2 and 5/1


Non-Runners - total of £130 lost

04/03/2012

Nick Williams - Festival Runners

This is the fourth season that I've followed the Nick Williams stable and whilst overall it's been a positive experience (Diamond Harry's Hennessy and James de Vassy's Lanzarotte Hurdle victories last year being the highlights) he's yet to get off the mark at the Festival and has had some painful near misses.

This year he runs:
Maljimar - Cross Country Chase
Swincombe Flame - Mares Hurdle
Alfie Spinner - National Hunt Chase
Guavain - Champion Chase or Ryanair
Horatio Hornblower - Bumper
For Non Stop - Jewson
Urbain de Sivola - Triumph
Diamond Harry - Gold Cup

Maljimar. That name can only conjure images of him getting chinned on the line by Wichita Lineman in the William Hill Trophy in 2009. One of the most painful losses you could possibly have. I backed him for the Cross Country last year where he never really got into it and with it looking a harder race this time I'll be swerving the old boy I'm afraid. I can't have Swincombe Flame either given how huge a step up in class she faces.

Alfie Spinner I do fancy though and have backed him for the four mile novice chase which opens day two. Alfie ran his best ever race last time out against some high class novices at Ascot where his jumping looked really mature and assured. He's one of the better animals in this race but naturally the step up in trip is a concern. Now, I can't really read jumping pedigrees with the same level of confidence as I can flat ones but I'm hoping Bustino being his damsire is as good a sign for a jumper as it is for a flat animal with regards stamina. We'll see. This is always a race with a lot of runners and a lot of dead wood and I'm confident Alfie's sound jumping will see him in contention even if his stamina starts to ebb away. For that reason the bet is each way.

Guavain isn't the sort of horse who'll be suited to the hustle and bustle of a Festival race so will be passed over and Horatio Hornblower I just don't know enough about. I follow the stable but I don't back his runners willy nilly. I like to have a certain familiarity with a horse's form before getting involved.

For Non Stop falling at the last when booked for second in the Coral Cup last year is another painful Williams related memory but this horse has impressed this season as a novice chaser in some hot looking contests. His run behind Al Ferof at Sandown earlier in the year really pleased me and he stayed on really well last time out at Newbury when winning his Grade 1. The Jewson looks competitive and we still don't know who'll run in the race but I'll be backing him on the day, on the course.

Onto the final day of the Festival and Urbain de Sivola. One of the highest rated Triumph Hurdle runners at present and one with decent form lines with some of the main protagonists but one who is also trading at over 20/1. This is down to doubts about him running. Nick has indicated that he'd prefer soft ground for an animal with a proper jumping pedigree and therefore he is far from certain to run. Fingers crossed for more rain. Lastly Diamond Harry in the Gold Cup. His trainer has been far from positive in the previews I've come across and in all honesty he's hard to fancy. Not that that's stopped me backing him here in the past.

Anyway, my main Festival hope this year is Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle, but after that it would be to see Nick have his first Festival winner. Here's hoping it's not too far away and it's not Maljimar with me not having a penny on.

EDIT 5/3: Boylesports have just gone NRNB on the Triumph today so I have backed Urbain de Sivola with them.

National Hunt Chase:
Alfie Spinner £10ew @ 12/1

Triumph Hurdle:
Urbain de Sivola £20w @ 20/1 NRNB

01/03/2012

Cheltenham Thoughts 1/3

Less than two weeks to go and inevitably as some positions I have look better and better, the non-runner count rises as well. Fingal Bay's hamstring injury is a blow of course, but it might make Simonsig and Mount Bensbulben's tasks a little easier if things fall into place. If the former goes for the Neptune I might end up with just the one bet on Tuesday.
As things stand I'm involved in fewer races this year but the horses I have good positions on win me more money if they come in. Although one of those, Medermit, is apparently being considered as a possible for the Gold Cup unfortunately. I suppose doubts about Kauto Star's involvement make this more likely. Ho hum! The closer we get and the more bad news that's received means the all-in aspect of my Sprinter Sacre position becomes more apparent. I think he should be odds-on now, especially with the recent doubts concerning Peddlers Cross taking him on, and I continue my topping up campaign. On Monday I also took advantage of Paddy Power's money back on all losers concession if SS wins the race and have punted Al Ferof at 5/1. He's the likeliest winner if the unthinkable happens. It goes without saying it's a fantastic offer.

I don't normally get involved in the Triumph Hurdle but Baby Mix really impressed me at Kempton last Saturday as he beat a decent field quite readily despite not hurdling that fluidly and idling on the run in. He actually jumped better at Cheltenham in the Autumn when accounting for a Nicholls hot pot and I think he's worth backing at 13/2 now.

EDIT 3/3: Simonsig has just been confirmed as heading to the Neptune so the idea I had of laying back the bets I had for both possible targets at shorter odds has worked quite well. I've topped up now and although I'm on at a shorter price than I originally had I haven't lost money on the Supreme. I've also added a couple of multiples to my portfolio and will have another couple before the Festival starts.


Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £240w @ 4/1 
Al Ferof £60w @ 5/1 (mbs) 

Neptune:
Simonsig £25w @ 89/10

Champion Chase:
Wishfull Thinking £20w @ 20/1

World Hurdle:
Mikael D'Haguenet £15w @ 34/1 and £10w @ 72/10 (w/o Big Bucks) 

Ryanair:
Medermit £25w @ 16/1
Rubi Light £20w @ 82/10 


Triumph:
Baby Mix £20w @ 13/2

County Hurdle:
Empire Levant £15w @ 16/1

Albert Bartlett:
Mount Benbulben £45w @ 11/1 

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1
Captain Chris £10w @ 33/1 
Magnanimity £10ew @ 25/1 (w/o Kauto Star and Long Run) 
China Rock £5w @ 79/1 


£10 Multiples: 
Boston Bob (Neptune) and Noble Prince (Ryanair) @ 10/3 and 6/1 
Sprinter Sacre (Arkle) and For Non Stop (Jewson) @ 5/4 and 8/1 
Peddlers Cross (Jewson) and Chapoturgeon (Foxhunters) @ 9/2 and 5/1




Non-Runners - total of £110 lost