Cheltenham and Doncaster - 28th Jan

When the five day entries came out for the big handicap at Doncaster and the Argento Chase at Cheltenham on Monday I made a couple of bets which was a wise move as the favourites for both contests have been pulled out since. This means I'm sitting pretty with the prices I got.

At Donny I took 20s about the Nick Williams trained Shalamar Frontero, a horse running tomorrow off a mouth watering mark of just 130. I expect him to win a decent handicap before the end of the season and I'm hopeful it will be this one. As I said on Monday, this horse travelled and jumped really well at Aintree in December before coming to grief at Becher's Brook and off a low weight he must surely go close if he stays on his feet. I've had another score on at 10/1 this morning.

In the big trial for the Gold Cup at Cheltenham the 6/1 I took about Captain Chris is now intensely good value as he currently trades at 11/4. I've written about this horse plenty in the past and don't feel I need to add anything now. The race still has a good punting shape as a couple of no hopers - Midnight Chase and Tidal Bay - are incredibly short considering their lack of any recent form. My A/P bet on Time for Rupert for the Gold Cup has looked ropey for quite a while but at 4/1 today on his favourite track he is certainly worth a cover bet.

Captain Chris £40w @ 6/1 (pu)
Time for Rupert £25w @ 4/1 (lost)

Shalimar Fromentro £10ew @ 20/1 and £20w @ 10/1 (lost)


(-973)

Cheltenham Thoughts 26/1

Not that much action this week, apart from the disappointment of Hidden Cyclone being ruled out of the RSA and the saga of whether or not Grands Crus takes his chance in that race or the Gold Cup. Him being ruled out of Saturday's Argento Chase is good for me with the price I have on Captain Chris for that race but it makes Cheltenham plans all the murkier. I've decided to have a small bet on Last Instalment in the race anyway. I was at Leopardstown when he won over Christmas and was impressed with his big, strong appearance and his jumping in ground that wasn't that soft. I make him a likelier winner of the RSA than Bob's Worth who hasn't the chase form to justify his position in the market.

Since my last Cheltenham post I've laid back my stake on Oscar Whisky for the Champion Hurdle for a small profit, topped up slightly on the odd selection and backed the Dessie Hughes trained Magnanimity in the Gold Cup market without Long Run and Kauto Star. Naturally this is wide open and Magnanimity appeals at the price. He got injured in the RSA Chase last year but showed admirable guts in plugging on for fourth place and whilst it's a race that hasn't worked out well he has a valid excuse for possibly running below form. He blew up when travelling fine first time out in the Lexus and plainly needed the race. He runs in the Hennessy Gold Cup next month and I'm hopeful of a bold showing before he takes his chance at Cheltenham.

Supreme:
Simonsig £20w @ 14/1

Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £150w @ 53/10


Festival Handicap Chase:
Planet of Sound £5w @ 24/1

Baring Bingham:
Simonsig £20w @ 15/1

RSA:
Last Instalment  £20w @ 81/10

Champion Chase:
Wishfull Thinking £20w @ 20/1

World Hurdle:
Mikael D'Haguenet £15w @ 34/1 and £10w @ 72/10 (w/o Big Bucks)


Ryanair:
Medermit £15w @ 20/1
Rubi Light £10w @ 86/10

Spa Hurdle:
Mount Benbulben £25w @ 14/1


County Hurdle:
Empire Levant £10w @ 16/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1
Captain Chris £10w @ 33/1
Magnanimity £10ew @ 25/1 (w/o Kauto Star and Long Run)


Non Runners - total of £40 lost

Ante-Post Update

My Festival list will be on a separate thread from now until mid March and I have three bets to update. The first was actually placed a week or ten days ago but I was so caught up with my Cheltenham wagers that I didn't think to include it on the list. I took 8/1 about Zarkandar when the prices came out for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury next month. I've only placed £10 on as yet because there was some doubt about whether or not that race was his target. Proof below as I do prefer to post my bets not long after they've been placed. The Triumph he won has turned into a white hot race from a form point of view and Nicholls hurdler gets into this race off a lenient looking mark.

Bet Ref: 37/37
Zarkandar @ 8/1
The Betfair Hurdle Race
The Betfair Hurdle Race
Event date:
Unit stake
Total stake	£ 10

On Saturday we have a mouth watering Gold Cup trial where Novice Grands Crus takes on the likes of Captain Chris, Time for Rupert and Diamond Harry. Captain Chris is 6/1, longer odds than both DH and TFR and I think that is wrong. The horse ran a cracker in the King George on a track he didn't look that at ease with and back at Cheltenham I think he has an outstanding chance of further enhancing his Gold Cup claims. Grands Crus is still a huge danger novice or no and I may cover on him on the day.

Also on Saturday up at Doncaster we have the Sky Bet chase over three miles. This is a competitive looking handicap and the horse I've backed for this is the Nick Williams trained Shalimar Fromentro. I backed him in his last race at the beginning of December at Aintree in the Becher Chase over the National fences where he travelled and jumped really well until coming to grief at Bechers Brook. I think we can forgive any horse who falls at that fence and he runs on Saturday off the same mark (130). My concern is that over three miles on ground potentially faster than he's raced on before things might happen a bit quick for him. But ultimately the sponsors have him at 20/1 and I think that's just too big a price. I've kept my initial bet on the small side as I fear he might not run if we get genuinely good ground.

Argento Chase:

Captain Chris £40w @ 6/1

Sky Bet Chase:
Shalimar Fromentro £10ew @ 20/1

Betfair Hurdle:

Zarkander £10w @ 8/1

Ascot - 21st Jan

Just the one bet on Saturday, a wager I've already written about when the ante-post prices went up for it. The Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot has a a great punting shape to it this year as we have a Paul Nicholls trained novice currently trading as second favourite. Al Ferof is a nice enough horse but he's really up against it here against some good horses and it's my opinion that the trainer is fully aware of Sprinter Sacre's potential greatness and that the Arkle might be beyond him - hence seeing where he's at in open company and a possible tilt at the Queen Mother. I can see it as a plan because Sizing Europe and Big Zeb are possibly vulnerable from an age point of view.

Anyway, Wishfull Thinking is my selection for the race. The ground has come up nice and soft for a horse that is probably suited to further than the trip he faces and he is a horse who tends to get better as the season progresses. I backed him each way at 8/1 when the prices came out and have topped up since. Finian's Rainbow of course will be a tough nut to crack and I like this horse a lot - but at the prices I think I have the value bet in the race.

Wisfull Thinking £20ew and £30w @ 8/1. (lost)


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Cheltenham Thoughts 16/1

Just eight weeks to the Festival and as ever, when the new year starts exciting starts to mount. I'm not having a very good season but hope to turn it round at the big meeting. The opening day is critical given the bet I have on Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle. I first backed him for the race almost immediately after last year's Festival and it's pretty much guaranteed that he'll be my biggest ever bet on the Jumps when the tape goes up. I have steadily topped up all year. If he doesn't win it could be a long week. My current A/P book is listed below.

Supreme:
Simonsig £20w @ 14/1

Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £140w @ 55/10

Champion Hurdle:
Oscar Whisky £10w @ 33/1
---

Baring Bingham:
Simonsig £12w @ 16/1

RSA:
Hidden Cyclone £10w @ 29/1

Champion Chase:
Captain Chris £20w @12/1
Wishfull Thinking £20w @ 20/1
--

World Hurdle:
Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 40/1

Ryanair:
Medermit £15w @ 20/1
Rubi Light £10w @ 86/10
--

Spa Hurdle:
Mount Benbulben £25w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1
Denman £10w @ 28/1
Captain Chris £10w @ 33/1

Warwick - 14th Jan

I'm not having the best Jumps season ever and neither is the trainer I follow over sticks, Nick Williams. He's been a bit in and out but has a couple of big shouts today. He has the favourite in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton, a race he won with James De Vassy last season (Ah, happy days!) and promising chaser Alfie Spinner runs at Warwick - and he's my only bet of the day. For a novice he fences pretty well and whilst it's a tough race with no real angle to attack it with the fact that my selection does jump so well is a nice positive.

Alfie Spinner £25w @ 100/30 (lost)


(-798)

Victor Chandler - Ascot 21st Jan

Wishfull Thinking looks a couple of points too big for this race in a couple of weeks. It's also a race that could cut up and I think he's nailed on for at least a place. Last season it wasn't until the turn of the year that his form started to kick in and I'm hopeful of similar improvement this season as well.

Wishfull Thinking £20ew @ 8/1 and £5w @ 9/1