Tingle Creek

Big two mile chase at Sandown on Saturday and Boylesports have priced the race up like this:
Sizing Europe 11/4
Finian's Rainbow 3/1
Tataniano 10/3
Wishfull Thinking 9/2
Kauto Stone 7

Sizing Europe, the current two mile champion, is a big price here and I've taken it. Their seems to be a feeling that he's a spring horse despite the fact that his best hurdling form was in the winter time. He's a cracking jumper who will be very hard to beat if he gets into a nice rhythm. The form of the others is some way behind what he has achieved and sometimes you just have to punt the best horse in the race.

Sizing Europe £50w @ 11/4

Ante-Post Update

Wayward Prince's dismal run on Saturday extends my poor start to the season and it looks like I'm gonna need a stellar Cheltenham Festival to have any sort of decent green figure come the end of the campaign.

Only a month to the King George now and it's looking like Captain Chris and Finian's Rainbow are the last hope for last season's novice chasers. The former I have backed already for Kempton and I still believe he is the main danger to Long Run. Kauto Star will not have a fitness advantage this time and Master Minded is an unlikely stayer.

As for Cheltenham, I have backed Oscar Whisky for the Champion Hurdle just in case he is aimed at that race if anything happens to Hurricane Fly - a great hurdler but one who has missed a couple of Festivals in the past. 

Yesterday at Navan Mount Benbulben was impressive in winning a Grade 2 novice hurdle despite the runner-up having the run of the race. He looks a thorough stayer and I think the Spa Hurdle over 3 miles on the Friday will be his target. I've taken 14/1.
Finally, with the second season staying chasers looking a ropey looking bunch thus far (Captain Chris the possible exception when he's stepped up) I can't resist having a sneaky tenner on Denman for the Gold Cup at a big price.

King George:

Captain Chris £30w @ 9/1

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Arkle:

Sprinter Sacre £40w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:

Oscar Whisky £10w @ 33/1

RSA:

Hidden Cyclone £10w @ 29/1

Champion Chase:

Captain Chris £20w @ 12/1

Spa:

Mount Benbulben £15w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:

Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1

Denman £10w @ 28/1

Hennessy Gold Cup

The big race tomorrow doesn't look like it will take nearly as much winning as when the mighty Denman was taking part but it's an interesting race nonetheless. I have to say I'm hurting at the moment. After a sublime 2010/11 Jumps Season I'm off to one of the worst starts in my punting career and I could do with a decent winner just to get the blood flowing again. My selection for this race is Wayward Prince. I have backed him ante-post and have topped up today. He's a second season chaser who has a lot of scope in terms of likely improvement once he takes in a trip. In the RSA Chase at the Festival back in March he was being ridden some way out but stayed on really well to get third. That race was over three miles on good ground and although under foot condittions are likely to be similar tomorrow I think the extra distance will really see this animal come into his own. I've read a lot recently about how the novice chasers from last year aren't up to much and whilst I can see that as a viable point of view, Time for Rupert and Wishfull Thinking especially looking a bit disappointing, I think it's a bit too early to be writing them off as a bunch. In horses like Wayward Prince and Captain Chris we have chasers who will surely improve when their stamina is stretched. I still really like the latter for the King George despite the efforts of Kauto Star (what a hero that horse is) and Master Minded last week - and the former is off a nice racing weight tomorrow (10st8) and is surely a lively contender in an average looking renewal.

Wayward Prince £50w @ 10/1 (PU)


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Haydock and Ascot - Nov 19th

The Betfair Chase is the big race of the day and Long Run may have his hands full first time out taking on Diamond Harry and Time for Rupert. I'm siding with the former for this race as he goes well fresh and loves the track. I do think Long Run is worth taking on at a short price. I remain unconvinced about the Gold Cup form given that he beat two 11yo's and he got beat first time out last year in a handicap. Naturally as my Gold Cup selection I hope Rupert runs well and I wouldn't be unhappy if he won.

Elsewhere at Ascot even without Captain Chris the Amlin Chase at 2.10 is a cracking renewal with Master Minded taking on Medermit and Somersby. I've got a lot of time for the latter who ran well first time out and almost beat Paul Nicholls charge at this track last season. He's four pounds better off today and I think he has claims of overturning that form. Master Minded was well below par at Aintree on his first run of the season and although that wasn't anywhere near his true form I didn't think it was a good sign for his future. I saw him in the paddock that day and it's not as if it was obvious he badly needed the run. Medermit is a danger but I think he was flattered at Exeter when winning the Haldon Gold Cup and I'm not convinced he's top draw.

Diamond Harry £60w @ 7/1 (lost)
Long Run Laid @ 6/1 for £20 (won)

Somersby £60w @ 9/4 (lost)


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Ante-Post Update

I'm looking forward to the Betfair Chase on Saturday where I'm hopeful Diamond Harry can win first time out yet again. As good as Long Run is I think he's vulnerable first time out and I'm not sure, as I've pointed out before, of the true worth of the Gold Cup form.

Speaking of Harry, the Hennessy is only a couple of weeks away and I like Wayward Prince for this contest. He's a thorough stayer who plugged on like a proper horse to be third over an inadequate three miles in the RSA Chase at the Festival. He gets in here off 150 and is attractively priced at 12/1. Second season chasers are the animals you want to be with in this race and if there is cut in the ground the selection will be a formidable opponent over the longest trip he will have encountered thus far in his young career

Betfair Chase:
Diamond Harry £30w @ 85/10

Kauto Star Laid @ 6/1 for £20

Hennessy:

Wayward Prince £30w @ 12/1

King George:
Captain Chris £25w @ 95/10

----------------
Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £40w @ 11/1

RSA:
Hidden Cyclone £10w @ 29/1

Champion Chase:
Captain Chris £20w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1
Denman £10w @ 28/1

Open Meeting - Day 2

Onto Paddy Power day and I have two bets lined up for today. In the big race I have been backing Mon Parrain for a couple of weeks. This horse is a spectacular jumper of a fence and I fell that attribute will stand him in good stead around Cheltenham where economy at an obstacle is key. I've posted more thoughts on this race in my ante-post updates. I also have a non runner in this contest.

In the Handicap Chase at 1.55 I can't resist a smallish bet on Reve De Sivola. This horse is an old favourite of mine who hasn't really gone on to be the star chaser I hoped he would be. But he ran well here at the Festival and I think 10/1 is a very fair price considering he's off a similar mark today.

Mon Parrain £50w @ 66/10 (lost)
Noble Prince £30w @ 12/1 (NR)

Reve De Sivola £25w @ 10/1 and £15pl @ 5/2 (lost)


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Open Meeting - Day 1

I really like Cue Card in the Novice Chase at 4.05. I posted my reasons for backing this exciting chaser a day or two ago. I was wise taking the 2/1 that VC put up as he is in to 6/4 now. Big chance. Zaynar makes another appearance for new trainer Nick Williams in the same race and whilst I can't fancy him to win given Cue Card's presence I've lumped him in a straight forecast with my selection.

Cue Card £40w @ 2/1 (UR)
Cue Card/Zaynar £10 S/F @ 19/1

(-130)

Open Meeting Thoughts

Really looking forward to Cheltenham's first proper meeting of the year (whole week actually taken off work.) I've already posted my thoughts on Mon Parrain's chance in the Paddy Power. He's a fantastic jumper who I think will be well suited to the course. His economic fencing will make him tough to beat. As cover I took a chance on backing Noble Prince (not a certain runner) this morning. I punted him when he beat Wishfull Thinking at the Festival off level weights and 12/1 just looks that little bit too big given that he might get in with not that big a weight.

Elsewhere I am looking forward to seeing Cue Card jump a fence at Headquarters and I've taken some 2/1 about him in the novice chase, where he takes on Grands Crus. That horse is the 13/8 fav and I think Victor Chandler (the only oddsmaker to price up the race so far) have them the wrong way round. I think Cue Card's "flop" in the Supreme last March might mean he gets under bet this year when he has tough opponents and I am gagging to get a price about him for the race I mentioned above that Noble Prince won.

Nick Williams has a couple of old favourites entered up also and I think Reve De Sivola might be backable at a biggish price in a tough looking Handicap Chase on Saturday as he always saves his best for this track.

4.05 Friday:
Cue Card £40w @ 2/1

Paddy Power:
Mon Parrain £50w @ 66/10
Noble Prince £30w @ 12/1