29/07/2011

Glorious Goodwood - Sat

I've not had a look at the whole card yet but have had a bet on Midday in the Nassau Stakes. The bet was placed at 3/1 before the favourite was withdrawn. This has led to a beefy Rule 4 which means a possible 30% deduction in my winnings if my selection wins. To counteract this I have put in a lay IR of part of my stake at a price of 11/10. I'm confident this will be matched as she travels well in her races. Midday was disappointing in her last run, between 6L in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh. However, the only other time she's beaten this far was in a race at the same track - with similar underfoot conditions. That's not a coincidence and her form overall is much the best of this field.

Midday £60w @ 3/1 (won) (Rule 4 deduction - 30p in the £)
IR Lay requested @ 2.2 for £20. (matched)

(-80.5)

26/07/2011

Glorious Goodwood - Tues

One of my old favourites, Forte Dei Marmi, returns to Handicap company for the first time this season today and whilst he's not been in the best of form lately I think this drop in class coupled with the fact that it's at Goodwood - a track that is suited to weight carrying - should help him compete. He's not a very confident selection to be honest, and he's not that well drawn either, but with four places paid in an eighteen runner contest he has an each way shot.

In the Lennox Stakes I think Strong Suit is incredibly solid at 11/4. He has strong :p course form and looked a decent tool at the Royal Meeting. Delegator continues to be an overrated animal and whilst I like Red Jazz, and think he's the biggest danger to the favourite, his form has been very in and out since last autumn.

Forte Dei Marmi £25ew @ 10/1 (lost)

Strong Suit £60w @ 11/4 (won)


(-182.5)

23/07/2011

Ascot and York 23/7

I've written at length about the King George in previous entries and am fully committed behind Rewilding. I think he remains an underrated horse who has improved leaps and bounds this year. Also at Ascot a horse I noted as one to follow after a fine run at the Royal Meeting, Striking Spirit, runs in the big 7f Handicap. I backed this horse in the Bunbury Cup last time out where he was drawn 1 and was switched upon leaving the stalls to race with the main bunch. Ironically the winner was also drawn low and stayed where he was. Such is life. Anyway, I'm giving him another chance and in a 24 runner field he's backable each way with some firms paying five places.

At York we have an interesting Group 2 race over 10f where dual Champion Stakes winner takes on a field of horses not really proven at the highest level. I'm not a fan of the animal to be honest but I think you can make excuses for his two poorish runs this year and he looks a class above these. I've taken 26/10.

Rewilding £80w @ 32/10 rip

Striking Spirit £30ew @ 11/1 (lost)

Twice Over £60w @ 26/10 (won)


(-289.4)

13/07/2011

Ante-Post Update

Still a bit down on the flat and I have to say recent results have been encouraging but painful. Three of the last four horses I've backed have led inside the final furlong only to find one too good.

I'm going against St Nicholas Abbey (my Arc fancy) for his next race, the King George at Ascot. I don't think the short straight there will see him to his best advantage and he looks a poor favourite to me when you consider that Rewilding is in the line-up. That horse was impressive in winning the Prince of Wales at the Royal Meeting and he looks to have improved significantly from three to four. He's the price he is (11/4) because there is a theory that he needs lots of time between races to recover. That may have been a legitimate reason for his defeat in the St Leger last year but I think a year's maturity may have sorted that out. In any event it's being overplayed in the market.

Update 18/7
Since the above entry Workforce has been pretty much confirmed for the King George. This means Rewilding has naturally drifted so I have stepped in again. It also has a knock on effect with regard to the Arc. I don't like King George runners in that race (not too happy about St Nic running at Ascot) and am against last year's winner for the race. A hard race at Sandown and now running on Saturday is not the ideal prep. For that reason, allied with doubts in my mind about the quality of the middle distance 3yo's I have backed Sarafina at 10s. She had a horrible passage when third in the race last year and has been in good form so far this. Her last run doesn't look like mammoth form but she didn't settle at all in a very slowly run race yet picked up really well at the business end. She's clearly trained on and will naturally be given the typical French prep for their biggest race.

King George:
Rewilding £80w @ 32/10

Ebor:
Fox Hunt £10w @ 16/1

Arc:
St Nicholas Abbey £15w @ 16/1
Sarafina £20w @ 10/1


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Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £20w @ 12/1

08/07/2011

July Meeting - Saturday

Tomorrow's big sprint isn't a race I have a good record in but I've been a fan of the Roger Charlton trained Bated Breath since last year and think he can go close tomorrow. He's a horse I liked for the Golden Jubilee at the Royal meeting but the soft conditions underfoot scuppered him that day, although he still put in an encouraging effort. Indeed, the winner of that Group 1 event was behind my fancy earlier in the season. I backed my selection as soon as Betfair formed a market and have topped up since.

My other bet today is in the Bunbury Cup. I noted Striking Spirit as a horse to follow over the trip he faces today after a blinding run in a hot 7f Handicap at Ascot. He's an animal who has been stepped up in trip since moving yards and today's race should suit. I'm just relieved one of the four horses I noted down on this Blog after the Royal meeting is actually running in a competitive handicap. 

Bated Breath £50w @ 12/1 £20pl @ 100/30 (2nd)

Striking Spirit £60w @ 10/1 (lost)


(-297.4)