Cheltenham Thoughts 22/2

We had some interesting Cheltenham pointers at the weekend, not least at Ascot in the Betfair Chase and in Ireland where Dunguib made his belated seasonal reappearance. The Ryanair Chase on the Thursday of the big meeting is a race I've been waiting to get stuck into as the front few in the market don't appeal at all. Poquelin and Tranquil Sea were both fancied last year and failed and I want to be against them at their current, rather skinny prices. Riverside Theatre won the Betfair Chase very nicely and is a bet for the Ryanair if he runs. He may however be supplemented for the Gold Cup so it's best to leave it at the moment. The horse that followed him home on Saturday, Gauvain, has been confirmed for the race which is great news as i took a chance by placing bets at 36 and 40 immediately after he crossed the line.

Dunguib made a pleasing return to the track and I think he has a cracking chance at placing and is no forlorn hope for first place. I'll be having a place bet to supplement the 21/1 I have in the win market nearer the meeting.

Finally, I have been mulling over a bet on Long Run for the Gold Cup. He's a horse I remember saying I wanted to be on the right side of after his Feltham win last season and having backed him in the RSA, Paddy Power and the King George it would be a bit of a blow if I left him unbacked for the Gold Cup and he went and won. His jumping has improved and there are excuses for his average runs at Cheltenham. I will monitor his price but with Somersby, Mad Max and Punchestowns all virtually guaranteed to be non-runners having been backed I have decided to lay back my bet on Pandorama otherwise I would have too many horses in the book for the race. I have gone off Pandorama since Kempes won the Irish Hennessy. That animal beat the same horses almost as impressively and so I doubt the value of the Irish form now. 

Arkle

Mikael D'Haguenet £5w  @ 17/1

Finian's Rainbow £40w @ 47/10

Champion Hurdle

Dunguib £20w @ 21/1

Hurricane Fly £50w @ 6/1

Champion Chase

Master Minded £75w @ 4/1

RSA Chase

Mikael D'Haguenet £45w @ 11/1

Coral Cup
For Non Stop £35w/£20pl @ 14/1

Ryanair Chase

Gauvain £10w @ 37/1
Riverside Theatre £20w @ 65/10

World Hurdle

Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Grand Crus £20w @ 3/1

Gold Cup

Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1

Denman £50w @ 82/10

Long Run £20w @ 66/10

£20 lost on NR's

February 19th

A cracking days racing in store at a number of tracks today. Looking forward to seeing Dunguib back in action at Gowran Park and I hope he wins without having too hard a time on it.

The best cards are at Ascot and Haydock but my only bet of the day is in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton.
Mille Chief heads the market for this and he is a horse I'm loathe to oppose as he looks an animal of some promise. However, Ronaldo Des Mottes is simply too big a price at 10/1. I'm not keen on any of the others really and their prices relative to Ronaldo gives me the angle to punt I am looking for. I think Overturn has been overrated on his run behind Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle. That race wasn't a contest I'd like to take literally from a form point of view. Silviniaco Conti has a penalty in this and a form line through Menorah via Get me out of Here suggests my selection seems to have a similar chance and yet is more than twice the price.


Ronaldo Des Mottes £50w @ 10/1 (lost)


(+1372.45)

Cheltenham Thoughts 13/2

For one reason or another yesterday was quite a bad day. The terrible events at Newbury overshadowed everything else that happened on the track and I think the course authorities were bang on abandoning the meeting.

Onto Cheltenham then. My two bets in the big novice chases ran yesterday and neither of them set the world alight. I was disappointed with Mikael D'Haguenet's performance naturally and we'll just have to see if he even runs at the Festival now. I can only hope being hampered when his stable companion fell and the resultant effort to get back into contention took more out of him on that ground than seems likely.
Finian's Rainbow put in a very average round of jumping at Warwick but I think the layers have been very premature in pushing his odds out for the Arkle. His trainer indicated before the race that they were going to hold the horse up on this occasion and it just didn't suit him. He was buzzy before the start of the race and didn't settle during it. If allowed his head in four weeks time I still see him as a huge player.

Arkle

Mikael D'Haguenet £5w  @ 17/1

Finian's Rainbow £35w @ 46/10

Champion Hurdle

Dunguib £20w @ 21/1

Hurricane Fly £50w @ 6/1

Champion Chase

Master Minded £75w @ 4/1

RSA Chase

Mikael D'Haguenet £45w @ 11/1

Coral Cup
For Non Stop £30w/£20pl @ 14/1

World Hurdle

Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Mikael D'Haguenet £5w @ 27/1

Grand Crus £20w @ 3/1

Gold Cup

Pandorama £10w @ 31/1

Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1

Denman £50w @ 82/10

£15 lost on NR's

Cheltenham Thoughts 6/2

Very disappointed that Leopardstown has been called off today as I was gagging to see Mikael D'Haguenet put his poor recent run behind him. Hopefully his trainer will still manage to get an outing into him before March.

Yesterday's Grade 1 Novice Chase was a fascinating contest that featured two contenders towards the front of the Arkle market. Captain Chris is the horse to take from the race, if not for the actual race he'll probably run in at the Festival. He made a mistake at the third last, wasn't as economical as Medermit over the final fence yet only just got beat. I think he's improved and needs a trip. Could be interesting for next year's Hennessy. Said improvement means that the Ghizao formline is slightly bogus imo. Coral were going 4s Ghizao and 9/2 Finian's Rainbow immediately after the race, a price on the latter that had to be taken, His form via Hell's Bay has worked out really well and he fits the profile of a typical Arkle winner having been a high class hurdler. Paul Nicholls has a tendancy to have his 2m novice chasers overrated by the oddsmakers and whilst I respect Ghizao's chances far more than Tatanen's a couple of years back or Tataniano (who didn't even run) last year I want to take him on.

Arkle

Mikael D'Haguenet £5w  @ 17/1

Finian's Rainbow £30w @ 9/2

Champion Hurdle

Dunguib £20w @ 21/1

Hurricane Fly £40w @ 61/10

Champion Chase

Master Minded £75w @ 4/1

RSA Chase

Mikael D'Haguenet £45w @ 11/1

Coral Cup
For Non Stop £7w @ 14/1

World Hurdle

Zaynar £5w @ 10/1

Mikael D'Haguenet £5w @ 27/1

Grand Crus £20w @ 3/1

Gold Cup

Pandorama £10w @ 31/1

Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1

Denman £50w @ 82/10

£15 lost on NR's