31/01/2011

Cheltenham Thoughts 31/1

I have backed Grand Crus for the World Hurdle at 3s. He put in a stunning performance in the Cleeve Hurdle on Saturday and must rate a major threat to Big Bucks. He travels extremely well also so will probably go very short in-running on the day so I may be able to overbet him for the race and then lay some back at really short odds. A tactic I like to use on occasion. Another horse that travels like a dream is Hurricane Fly, an animal I was unfortunate enough to back last year in the Champion Hurdle when he didn't turn up. He's drifted a tad the last couple of days on Betfair and I've taken some 6/1 and 13/2. Pretty sure he'll show up but given he's missed two Festivals it's not a surprise to see his odds fluctuating. I don't oppose Binocular lightly but if you look at last year's renewal McCoy went for him as they entered the straight and I just feel that with the engine he has Hurricane Fly would still have been travelling nicely at that point. The placed horses have not advertised the form too brightly either.

In a couple of months we'll be well into the Festival and I for one can't wait. I'll be attending on the Thursday. I'm having the best Jumps season I've ever had but historically I do better outside of the Festival. It's so competitive that winner finding is harder than at other times. My portfolio at the moment:


Cheltenham Festival:

Arkle
Mikael D'Haguenet £5w  @ 17/1

Champion Hurdle
Dunguib £20w @ 21/1
Hurricane Fly £30w @ 62/10

Champion Chase
Master Minded £75w @ 4/1

RSA Chase
Mikael D'Haguenet £40w @ 10/1

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1
Mikael D'Haguenet £5w @ 27/1
Grand Crus £20w @ 3/1

Gold Cup
Pandorama £10w @ 31/1
Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1
Denman £30w @ 85/10

£15 lost on NR's

The only real positives out of that list are the prices I have about Master Minded in the Queen Mother and Pandorama in the Gold Cup (even if the latter is only for a five spot). Over the next few weeks I'm hoping Dunguib puts in a positive performance in the Irish Champion on Sunday and that Mr Mullins gets another run into Mikael D'Haguenet. 

Somersby should be running shortly as well and he's a horse I like a lot. I'll be backing him if he runs in the Ryanair. Long Run and Diamond Harry are horses that have been big winners for me this season but I'll be against both of them in the Gold Cup based on their Cheltenham form and I wouldn't put anyone off a bet on Imperial Commander at 4/1. I'll probably back him on the day unless he's too short.

I have no real opinion on the novice hurdles or the Arkle and I'll be studying the handicaps as the build up continues.

28/01/2011

Cheltenham - Jan 29th

The Cotswold Chase at headquarters this Saturday looked a nice betting race earlier in the week when Time for Rupert, a novice, was made a short priced favourite with Punchestowns available at a rather mouth watering 4.1 on Betfair. As usual when betting on the machine I tend to dip my toe in rather than have my normal bet on just in case a drift occurs. It's something I should cut out really.
So, when the favourite was pulled out on Thursday I was left with a sorry looking £30 at the aforesaid price. I've topped that up slightly to give me a more respectable bet and I'm hoping for a good performance both for the bet to be landed and for future races as Henderson's animal is a racehorse I've always held in the highest regard.

Punchestowns £50w @ 5/2 (lost)


(+1422.45)

18/01/2011

Cheltenham Thoughts 18/1

In a couple of months we'll be well into the Festival and I for one can't wait. I'll be attending on the Wednesday. I'm having the best Jumps season I've ever had but historically I do better outside of the Festival. It's so competitive that winner finding is harder than at other times. My portfolio at the moment:


Cheltenham Festival:

Arkle
Mikael D'Haguenet £5w  @ 17/1

Champion Hurdle
Dunguib £20w @ 21/1

Champion Chase
Master Minded £75w @ 4/1

RSA Chase
Mikael D'Haguenet £30w @ 92/10

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1
Reve De Sivola £5pl @ 12/1
Mikael D'Haguenet £5w @ 27/1


Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £10w @ 31/1
Mad Max £5w @ 77/1
Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1
Denman £30w @ 85/10

The only real positives out of that list are the prices I have about Master Minded in the Queen Mother and Pandorama in the Gold Cup (even if the latter is only for a five spot). Over the next few weeks I'm hoping Dunguib puts in a positive performance in the Irish Champion on Sunday and that Mr Mullins gets another run into Mikael D'Haguenet. 

Somersby should be running shortly as well and he's a horse I like a lot. I'll be backing him if he runs in the Ryanair. Long Run and Diamond Harry are horses that have been big winners for me this season but I'll be against both of them in the Gold Cup based on their Cheltenham form and I wouldn't put anyone off a bet on Imperial Commander at 4/1. I'll probably back him on the day unless he's too short.

I have no real opinion on the novice hurdles or the Arkle and I'll be studying the handicaps as the build up continues.

14/01/2011

Kempton - Jan 15th

Two months to the Festival and to whet our appetite we have a cracking card at Kempton. It features two Grade 1's held over from Boxing Day and some other interesting races in amongst nine contests.
The King George revolves, as ever, around Kauto Star and I already have positions in this race. Unfortunately Sizing Europe isn't coming over now so I'm left with an ante-post bet on Long Run. A bet I have since topped up. I'm hopeful rather than confident to be honest although I do have a sneaky feeling that Kauto may have had enough and is vulnerable. I still think Long Run is capable of a huge run if he can jump more efficiently and he remains the main challenger to the favourite.

James De Vassy runs in the hot looking Lanzarote Hurdle. This is a horse I seem to have backed a lot over the last couple of seasons and he must have a chance (if he can manage to put a poor run behind him at Haydock) and run up to the sort of form he showed at Cheltenham last season in the Coral Cup and also in the Greatwood.
At Haydock he was well up with the pace and seemed to get tired in the latter part of the race. They went a fair old clip that day and as it was his first run of the season I think we can forgive him. It's a hot looking race with plenty of unexposed types so it's a bit of a bet in the dark and for that reason I've backed him in the place market as well. After the Hennessy Daryl Jacob nominated the horse as his one to follow for the rest of the season. That's some commendation given the other horses he rides for Nick Williams.

Sizing Europe £20ew @ 16/1 (NR)
Long Run £50w @ 13/2 (won)

James De Vassy £40w @ 125/10 £20pl @ 5/2 (won)




(+1472.45)

02/01/2011

Ante-Post Update

After three straight winners things are on the up for me at the moment but after twenty odd years punting I'm always aware a downturn could be just round the corner. This realism is illustrated by my current ante-post portfolio which is looking a bit iffy at the moment with Mikael D'Haguenet running very poorly the other day at Leopardstown, Punchestowns getting chinned on his seasons reappearance and Sizing Europe apparently a doubtful runner in the King George as his trainer isn't keen on making two trips with him in such a short space of time after the race was abandoned on Boxing Day.


King George
Long Run £30w @ 6/1
Sizing Europe £20ew @ 16/1

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Cheltenham Festival:

Arkle
Mikael D'Haguenet £5w  @ 17/1

Champion Hurdle
Dunguib £20w @ 21/1

Champion Chase
Master Minded £60w @ 44/10

RSA Chase
Mikael D'Haguenet £30w @ 92/10

World Hurdle
Zaynar £5w @ 10/1
Reve De Sivola £5pl @ 12/1

Gold Cup
Somersby £5w @ 20/1
Pandorama £5w @ 47/1
Mad Max £5w @ 77/1
Punchestowns £10w @ 24/1
Denman £30w @ 85/10


-----------------------------------

2000 Guineas
Wootton Bassett  £5w @ 18/1