31/12/2011

Newbury - 31st Dec

At Newbury today we have a fascinating four runner novice chase over 2m3f in which Cue Card takes on Walkon and For Non Stop. I've backed all three of these animals in one race or another in the past and today I favour the Nick Williams horse. He ran really well behind Al Ferof last time out over 2m at Sandown and I think this trip will really suit him. The likely testing ground is against Cue Card and I think Walkon's form has been a tad overrated for all that he has scope over fences. My selection wasn't as good a hurdler as his two rivals today but he stayed further than either and I think he'll be stronger in the finish today given the ground and the seven pounds he gets from them both. Stakes have been reduced for the time being as I am out of form.

For Non Stop £40w @ 11/4 (lost)


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29/12/2011

Ante-Post Update

It's been a fascinating few days racing and an update is due on my ante-post list. Sprinter Sacre was breathtaking in beating Peddlers Cross the other day and I managed to top up at 3/1 before he went into 5/2 for the Arkle. 
Captain Chris ran a good race in the King George despite being out the back in a relatively slowly run race and on a course that won't suit him as well as Cheltenham does. I've taken a slice of the 33/1 Ladbrokes went about him for the Gold Cup after the race. He isn't guaranteed to be aimed the race but with Wishfull Thinking (same connections) patently needing further than the two miles he's running over his last couple of starts, I think it makes sense to aim that horse at the Ryanair and take in the Gold Cup with Chris. I wouldn't fancy him too strongly against Long Run but he'll be backed in the place market nearer the race.
In Ireland today Hidden Cyclone was impressive in his first start over fences which bodes well for the price I have on him for the RSA.



Supreme:
Simonsig £20w @ 14/1

Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £120w @ 6/1

Champion Hurdle:
Oscar Whisky £10w @ 33/1

Baring Bingham:
Simonsig £12w @ 16/1

RSA:
Hidden Cyclone £10w @ 29/1

Champion Chase:
Captain Chris £20w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:
Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 40/1

Ryanair:
Medermit £15w @ 20/1
Rubi Light £10w @ 86/10

Spa Hurdle:
Mount Benbulben £20w @ 13/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1
Denman £10w @ 28/1
Captain Chris £10w @ 33/1

27/12/2011

Leopardstown - Dec 28th

First things first, Sprinter Sacre once again sent shivers down my spine with his jumping and athleticism earlier today and my Arkle position is kind of my one bright spot in a Jumps season so far full of mud. I managed to top up at 3/1 on Betfair before Donald McCain indicated they may step up in trip with Peddlers Cross and as it stands I have 720/120, a nice lump on at 6/1. A bet to keep one warm throughout the coldest of winters.
Anyway, I'm off to Ireland tomorrow for Lexus day and even though Denman no longer runs it still looks a fine card. In the big race I intend backing Rubi Light on course. This animal was most impressive when easily accounting for Joncol (who re-opposes) over two and half miles last time out and although the three miles tomorrow is a step into the unknown, I think the ground (good to yielding rather than the bog it can be this time of year) will help him stay. Market leader Quito de la Roque is a dour stayer and I think my selection will just have too much speed for him. In summary, Rubi Light is in terrific form, still on the upgrade and is for me the likeliest winner of the race.
Rubi Light £60w on course at best price available (5/2 minimum) (lost)


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26/12/2011

Kempton & Leopardstown - Dec 27th

As uplifting as it was to see the great horse win his fifth King George earlier this afternoon I had another poor day and confidence wise I'm on my knees at the moment. It's at times like these when you doubt every selection you come up with but you have to keep plugging on as missing out on a winner is a lot worse than any losing wager.

In the Paddy Power Chase in Ireland I think the bookies have put in Golden Silver at way too big a price. Big Zeb is a top class opponent and is justifiably trading at short odds but Mullins horse has beaten him in the past and is surely a far bigger danger than Noble Prince, a horse who surely needs two and a half miles to be seen to best effect. First time out at Cork Golden Silver didn't jump that well and was very fortunate to win when Osirixamix crashed out at the last when clear. However, my selection is nearly ten years old now and surely his trainer wouldn't have had him in prime condition for such a relatively minor race, albeit one he had won a couple of times in the past. Ultimately his overall form suggests he can give Big Zeb a contest tomorrow and 11/2 is a more than fair price.

Over at Kempton my Arkle fancy Sprinter Sacre takes on Peddlers Cross in a terrific looking Novice Chase and whilst it's a very exciting match up I would rather they left it for March. My original plan was to top up throughout the new year and have a £200+ bet on Henderson's animal but if he wins as I expect him to tomorrow those odds will be pie in the sky. As it is Peddlers Cross is favoured by the layers for tomorrow's clash but Sprinter Sacre is potentially the most exciting chaser I've seen since Denman came on the scene and he's worth a small wager at 6/4.

Golden Silver £60w @ 11/2 (fell) 

Sprinter Sacre £40w @ 6/4 (won)


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25/12/2011

Kempton - Dec 26th

Boxing Day Kempton is always my favourite thing about Christmas and tomorrow's card does not disappoint.

In the big race I am very keen on Captain Chris. This horse won the Arkle at Cheltenham back in March despite being outpaced at stages and has been crying out for this sort of trip. Long Run will be a tough nut to crack of course and I have saved on him. What makes my selection such a strong bet is the presence of Kauto Star and Master Minded in the race. I give neither of them much hope - the former was trained for his historic win at Haydock the other week and will not have a fitness advantage this time. The latter has little hope of staying. To me it looked like he was fading at Ascot last time and I just can't see him being anywhere near strong enough near the finish here over three miles. Captain Chris has always looked like he was crying out for a trip and I just don't think you could ever say that about Master Minded.


I've also backed Bob's Worth in the Feltham. I'm surprised there is such a disparity in prices between that horse and Grands Crus as they look to have similar chances to my eyes. My selection ran well over an inadequate trip first time out when needing the run and this trip will really suit him. Grands Crus does look a fine chaser in the making but at the odds it's a no brainer really. 


Captain Chris £70w @ 9/1  (lost)
Long Run & Peddlers Cross (Arkle) £40w double @ 11/8 and 7/2. (lost)


Bob's Worth £60w @ 11/4. (lost)


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17/12/2011

Ascot - 17th Dec

A decent enough card at Ascot today with just the one bet. Reve De Sivola is a horse I've backed numerous times and although he disappointed last time out at Cheltenham I'm prepared to give him another chance today. He actually jumped well for him that day but didn't stay the trip (today's contest is four furlongs shorter) and with Hennessy winner Carruthers nine lengths in front of him it has to be said that the form has been franked. He certainly has claims on that form especially with a drop to a mark of 139 and with The Minack (the usual falsely priced Nicholls horse) being a poor value favourite I think the 6.4 I've taken on Betfair is a fair price. Confidence isn't that high about a horse that doesn't win that often hence a reduction in stake size.

Reve De Sivola £25w @ 54/10 (lost)


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11/12/2011

Ante-Post Update

Sprinter Sacre is a horse I wanted to back for the Arkle as soon as the Supreme was over last March. He just looked like a big, strapping chasing type and the best prospect from a high class renewal of the traditional festival opener. Well, he had his first start over fences last Friday and although the opposition were no great shakes he put in a lovely round of fast, accurate jumping and I have topped up my position.
Medermit's honourable defeat in the big race on Saturday hurt a lot at the time, but as I expected the step up to 2m5f really brought about improvement on his previous form this season and I make him a decent bet at this stage for the Ryanair Chase, run over the same trip. It's a race that's tough to punt on at this stage with it not being the confirmed target for a lot of horses, but I can't see a viable alternative for Medermit.

Lastly,doubts have been raised re Captain Chris being ready in time for the King George have suffered the equivalent of a human head cold a couple of weeks ago but I don't buy that as a reason for not getting him fit for Boxing Day. He has drifted slightly on Betfair so a little topping up is in order. Long Run is by far the likeliest winner of the race but I consider my selection his main danger. I have backed Henderson's animal in a double with Peddlers Cross for the Arkle. That animal is Sprinter Sacre's main danger in that race.


King George:
Captain Chris £40w @ 10/1
Long Run and Peddlers Cross (Arkle) £40w double @ 11/8 and 7/2

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Supreme:
Simonsig £20w @ 14/1

Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £60w @ 91/10

Champion Hurdle:
Oscar Whisky £10w @ 33/1

Baring Bingham:
Simonsig £12w @ 16/1

RSA:
Hidden Cyclone £10w @ 29/1

Champion Chase:
Captain Chris £20w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:
Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 40/1

Ryanair:
Medermit £15w @ 20/1

Spa Hurdle:
Mount Benbulben £20w @ 13/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1
Denman £10w @ 28/1

09/12/2011

Cheltenham - Dec 10th

Good and bad news as I write this on the Friday. Denman, my favourite horse of all time is retired just before he reaches 12. I'd like to add my tribute to The Tank, he was a monster of a horse at his best and I'll never forget the awesome display of steeplechasing power he used to dismantle Kauto Star in the '08 Gold Cup. On a more positive note, my Arkle fancy Sprinter Sacre put in an exciting round of fast, accurate jumping in his chasing debut at Doncaster earlier this afternoon and I retain the belief that this horse is going to the top.

As for Saturday's action, I've already posted my thoughts on Medermit's chances in the big handicap and the only thing to add is that I've placed a little bet in the place market to go with my win bet.

Medermit £40w @ 14/1 and £20pl @ 5/2 (2nd)


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07/12/2011

December Gold Cup - Cheltenham 10th Dec

The highlight of Saturday's card at headquarters is the big handicap chase over 2m5f. In this the Alan King trained Medermit catches my eye at 14/1. This horse ran really well for a long way before finishing third behind Master Minded and Somersby last time out at Ascot. That was a run over an inadequate trip on good ground in my opinion. Indeed, his best run as a novice last season was over Saturday's trip at Sandown back in February when he beat the subsequent Arkle winner Captain Chris. Most of the horses towards the front of the market were placed in the Paddy Power last month but I remain unconvinced of the value of that form. I'm happy to take them on with my selection.

Medermit £40w @ 14/1

04/12/2011

Ante-Post Update

The most interesting race from a Cheltenham point of view this week was the Grade 2 novice hurdle at Sandown at Friday. This featured a nice dual between Fingal Bay and Simonsig. The former, a more experienced animal, prevailed but Simonsig ran a cracker after travelling like the winner and has got to be interesting if brought back in trip. I'e taken 14s about him for the Supreme.
Today in Ireland Mikael D'Haguenet finally got back to winning ways when cheekily winning a minor race over two miles at Fairyhouse. He's a horse I've backed a number of times in the past and I remain hopeful he can make it back to the top. He's worth a small investment for the World Hurdle at a big price.


King George:
Captain Chris £30w @ 9/1

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Supreme:
Simonsig £20w @ 14/1

Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £40w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:
Oscar Whisky £10w @ 33/1

RSA:
Hidden Cyclone £10w @ 29/1

Champion Chase:
Captain Chris £20w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:
Mikael D'Haguenet £10w @ 40/1

Spa Hurdle:
Mount Benbulben £15w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1
Denman £10w @ 28/1

03/12/2011

Sandown and Aintree - 3rd Dec

Since posting my thoughts earlier in the week about the Tingle Creek the race has cut up big time with Tataniano and Finian's Rainbow being pulled out. This leaves me in an excellent position with 11/4 about Sizing Europe who is around a 6/4 shot now. Wishfull Thinking seems the only really danger (especially with the ground softening up) so I think it's wise to cover on him.

At Aintree the 2.10 is the Becher Chase over the National fences. Nick Williams runs Shalimar Fromentro and whilst as a 5yo this is a big ask he has bits and pieces of really nice form, including running the smart Wymott close last year in a novice chase as a 4yo at Exeter. With a couple of recent runs to his credit it's safe to assume that he'll be fit for this so I think he warrants an each way bet at 10/1.

Sizing Europe £50w @ 11/4 (won)
Wishfull Thinking £30w @ 32/10 (lost)

Shalimar Fromentro £25ew @ 10/1 (fell)


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