Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Just five days to go to Flat Racing's biggest contest and as ever I'm all-in on the race. I have well almost £200 on Sarafina at just over 5/1 and the only thing stopping me having one of my biggest bets ever is a slight uncertainty about the jockey and the fact that she can find trouble in running. Depending on her price nearer the off though I do anticipate at least one further bet.
Galikova really impressed me in the Prix Vermeille and I expect her to run well and make her the biggest danger to my selection. She has a relentless galloping style once in top gear and I think a decent pace over this trip will really suit her. At over 8/1 she is well worth adding to my portfolio. So You Think and Workforce don't worry me at all - the former has never run over this trip and has a running style totally unsuited to French Racing (get in front and hang on) and the latter doesn't look the same animal this year.
At this stage St Nicholas Abbey looks an unlikely runner unfortunately.

Sarafina £180w @ 52/10
St Nicholas Abbey £40w @ 24/1 and £20pl @ 6/1
Galikova £40w @ 84/10

Newmarket - 24th Sept

I posted my initial thoughts on the Cambridgeshire earlier in the week and it looks a cracking contest as ever. In addition to Cry Fury I have decided to back Man of Action as well. A couple of weeks ago this Saeed Bin Suroor trained animal was responsible for my most painful loss of the season. The horse I'd backed that day, Eton Forever, was really fancied and I was horrified when he was nabbed late on by the selection. He took the lead well inside the final furlong and won comfortably by a length and a half. Of course as an early closing race that means the Godolphin horse hasn't been reassessed and only carries four pounds more than he did that day.

The other race I've decided to have a go at is the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes. In this I'm at a loss as to why Sahpresa isn't a lot shorter than 9/4. She's won the race twice before and has immense top class form with Immortal Verse and Goldikova. I can only surmise that her defeat to Timepiece in the Falmouth on the July Course has influenced this price. Although the presence of an Oxx trained animal could also be a factor. In any event she is too big a 9/4.

Cry Fury £60w @ 11/1 (lost)
Man of Action £30w @ 12/1 (lost)

Sahpresa £60w @ 9/4 (won)


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Newmarket - 23rd Sept

One of the many irritating things about betting is when you tentatively work a bet out only to discover once you have bought the Racing Post in the morning that Pricewise has tipped it up. It affects the price and it puts me off blogging about the horse/bet. I have found an angle that Tom didn't cover in his piece though, and that is that this animal is very much a horse for courses. His best form this year was when he ran Twice Over to less that two lengths at York the month before that horse won the Juddmonte - and his best run from 2010 was when winning a handicap at York off a mark of 100 at the Ebor meeting. He won the Earl of Sefton over this Rowley Mile course in the Spring and that suggests that he'll be at home powering up the Dip holding them off. Ultimately I think 5/1 plus is a decent price given how uninspiring the opposition is. I have bigger fish to fry over the coming weeks but it'd be nice to get a bit nearer the black in terms of profit and loss for the season.

Ransom Note £40w @ 54/10 (won)


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Ante-Post Update

I've not had the best of flat seasons up to now but we're coming up to my favourite part of the year now where we have races that I have good records and good memories in. Normally the Cambridgeshire takes place the day before the Arc but from this season it will be the week before. I'm not gonna discuss Racing for Change and the moving of Champions Day from Newmarket to Ascot here but I'm not keen.

Anyway, I've had a look at the race and as a fan of his trainer (Roger Charlton) Cry Fury immediately caught my eye. He has similar credentials going into the race as Pipedreamer did a few years back and he sluiced up. He won a Goodwood handicap very easily last month having run into St Leger runner-up Brown Panther in May at Haydock and he really looks rock solid to me. He's not had many outings obviously and it is a very, very competitive contest but it's one of my favourite races of the season and I'm happy to get involved at 10/1.

I continue to top up on Sarafina for the Arc. I feel incredibly confident about her chances particulary as it looks like it could be a smaller field than normal. Something which reduces the chance of her getting into bother like she did last year.

Cambridgeshire:
Cry Fury £50w @ 10/1

Arc:
Sarafina £130w @ 57/10
St Nicholas Abbey £40w @ 24/1 and £20pl @ 6/1

Champion Stakes:
Cirrus Des Aigles £60w @ 75/10

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King George:
Captain Chris £10w @ 10/1

Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £20w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £20w @ 16/1

Ayr - 17th Sept

Not an especially exciting day's racing today but as I'm at work and it's quiet I couldn't resist looking at the big sprint handicaps at the Scottish track and I might have found a sneaky one at a big price. The Richard Fahey trained 3yo El Viento is too big at 50s for the Silver Cup. He won nicely enough over the trip at Ripon in July before a couple of runs over 7f and although this was an average event with only seven runners it does show he's an animal with a certain amount of scope over the trip and you never know, a rampant twenty odd runner cavalry charge may be right up his street. At a huge price I'll take that punt.

El Viento £15ew @ 50/1 (lost)


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Ante-Post Update

Sarafina cemented her position at the head of the market for the Arc with a nice success at Longchamp on Sunday. I have topped up my position at the 4/1 she touched just after the race.

The horse she beat in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, Cirrus Des Aigles, a gelding who can't run in the Arc, has been put up at 8/1 for the Champion Stakes at Ascot in mid October. This is a race with a nice betting shape at the moment as So You Think heads the market at 7/4 but is more likely to go to Paris and second favourite Twice Over has a poor record at the track. I wonder if Corals oddsmaker realises the race has moved venues. In any event, my selection has won impressively twice since going down to Sarafina, is progressive and will be a lot shorter on the day I would imagine.

Arc:
Sarafina £100w @ 62/10
St Nicholas Abbey £40w @ 24/1 and £20pl @ 6/1

Champion Stakes:
Cirrus Des Aigles £55w @ 77/10


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Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £20w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £20w @ 16/1

Doncaster - Sept 10th

I've posted my thoughts on the St Leger earlier in the week and have slightly topped up the bet I placed on Blue Bunting a few days ago. However Sea Moon, who heads the market, has been shunted out to 2/1 with Ladbrokes and Hills. This makes him bet material as I really do see this contest as the proverbial two horse race. It's unusual to find a contest where the front two in the market both represent reasonable odds but we have it here (although the average price I have on the Godolphin animal is a bit longer than what she is currently trading at to be fair).

It's actually a really good card at Doncaster today and I was tempted by Zero Money in the Portland but I think he has gone up too much for his win at Haydock the other day. The idea for me with handicappers is to look for the ones who pounce late on the scene, win by a length or so and go up maybe four or five pounds. This horse went clear and was then eased down to win by less than a length - quite flashy really, hence the eight pound hike.

The mile handicap that follows the Leger features the return of Eton Forever. This horse was most eye catching when winning at the track in April and I backed him for the Hunt Cup at Ascot on the back of that success. He wasn't well drawn that day but managed to get a place. He runs well fresh as the Spring Mile win was his first race of the year and although he's not a great price this isn't that competitive an event and he should go close.

Blue Bunting £50w @ 44/10 (lost)

Sea Moon £50w @ 2/1 (lost)

Eton Forever £60w @ 7/2 (lost)


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Doncaster - Sept 8th

On first glance the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster today looks a trappy contest but I think I've found a fair wager. Meeznah has the best form in the race but is only third in the market partly because of her bad run last time out (which really was too bad to be true) and partly because Set to Music is on a five timer and looks a tough nut to crack. However, that filly has never run over today's trip and isn't really bred to necessarily relish this step up. In short she is worth taking on and my selection seems the best alternative.

Meeznah £40w @ 3/1 (won)


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St Leger

For a change we have a quite exciting looking final classic of the season. Sea Moon was incredibly impressive at York in the Great Voltigeur and whilst he is respected I'm not 100% convinced by him. The ground that day was atrocious and may have exaggerated his true superiority. He's also very inexperienced and the Leger is such a hard, grueling contest that I feel he might not have much left at the end of the race. Blue Bunting on the over hand is a tough, dual classic winner who looks like she will relish a long drawn out battle up the Doncaster straight. She's 9/2 on Betfair as I type this and that looks too big. At this stage it looks a price worth taking with a view to topping up on the day. Of the others I am of course very familiar with Census and Brown Panther having backed the latter last time out and having the former on my horses to follow list after his fine run at Royal Ascot. That was with handicaps in mind though - I just don't see either as Classic contenders.

Blue Bunting £40w @ 9/2

Haydock - Sept 3rd

I'm on the course with around nineteen other blokes on Saturday for the second part of a Stag do. I've looked at the card in detail and the main bet of the day will be in the Sprint Cup. I'm loathe to desert Bated Breath after backing him in the July Cup and the Nunthorpe, but the horse that beat him at Newmarket is nicely priced at around 9/2. Dream Ahead followed up his win at headquarters with a most disappointing effort in the Maurice De Gheest over an extended 6f at Deauville. He was even money that day but was never really in the race. One of the templates of my betting is to look for horses who seem to have their odds for a particular contest slanted by their most recent run rather than their overall profile. This happens a lot and I call it the New Approach angle. That horse was sent off at ludicrous odds for the Derby in 2008 after a below par effort in the Irish Guineas on fast ground - a pretty irrelevant bit of form in my opinion at the time.
The bottom line is that Dream Ahead is unbeaten over 6f and maybe the extra hundred yards or so and the soft conditions underfoot went against him in France. In any case he has the best form going into the race and I like the price.

Earlier on the card we have the Old Borough Cup, a heritage handicap over a mile and six. It looks a tough contest and I like a couple in the race. The Mark Johnston trained Shernando has never run over this far before but is out of a Slip Anchor mare and should improve for the step up in trip. He won at Hamilton last week by three lengths having only led inside the last furlong - something that always catches my eye. This is a far harder contest but he has the scope to still be ahead of the handicapper. The other bet in the race is Blissful Moment. This animal was only beaten by Fox Hunt (one of my horses to follow) in a very hot race at Royal Ascot before running down the field in the Ebor over this trip. That run I'm ignoring as it was only  the eighth race of his career - a very tough ask given how hard a race that always is. I've taken 10s about Shernando already and will top up on course.


Dream Ahead £60w @ 5/1 (won)

Shernando £20w @ 10/1 and will have another £20w on course (lost)

Blissful Moment £20w on course (lost)


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