28/08/2011

Ante-Post Update

Big news over the weekend with Pour Moi being retired after injuring himself at home. It's most unfortunate for the race, but it  makes my Arc positions on St Nicholas Abbey and Sarafina look very good. I've topped up on both since the favourite's defection. I can't understand why the former in particular hasn't come right in as he is owned by the same connections. It seems there really is no other race at a mile and a half for him.

Arc:
St Nicholas Abbey £40w @ 24/1 and £20pl @ 6/1
Sarafina £50w @ 8/1



--------------------------------
Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £20w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £20w @ 16/1

20/08/2011

Sandown and York - 20th Aug.

I'm going through my roughest punting patch for a couple of years at the moment but you have to keep plugging on and so I've decided to have a go in the big handicap at York today. I originally backed Fox Hunt for this last month but laid the bet back after he ran in a Group race at Goodwood - the theory being that he might not line up today. His trainer, Mark Johnston, has long been a critic of the exalted position handicaps hold in the racing calender. It's interesting that he has decided to let Fox Hunt take his place in this given that the Lonsdale Cup, a Group 2 race over two miles, is on the same card. I suppose the £50K difference in prize money might have persuaded him. Anyway, he carries top weight which is far from ideal - but the sponsors are paying five places and he such a tough, consistent battler of a horse that he must have a chance of going close even with such a welter burden on his back.

Initially I'd only paid attention to York's card today but thanks to a poster on Talking Horses I've been reminded that Chain Lightning, a horse in my notebook from the early part of the season, is running at Sandown today. Now this horse is a course and distance winner who I backed in the Hunt Cup at Ascot. He's gone up six pounds since a good effort over an inadequate trip there and certainly has claims at his favourite track today - but I worry the handicapper may have hold of him now. This is where being on a losing streak really effects the way one punts. I've backed Fox Hunt in the Ebor, a horse who has been creeping up the handicap without winning - so why not back Hannon's horse as well? His run at Sandown after the Hunt Cup (where I wasn't on as he was very short in the market) was a fine effort, second, pulling away from the third horse and finishing behind an animal who kind of had first run on him. Encouraging. He isn't a fantastic price today but I have gone in. Ultimately the pain of a probable loss isn't in the same league as watching a horse in my notebook winning without me being on. Bad times.

Fox Hunt £25ew @ 14/1 (lost)

Chain Lightning £40w @ 9/2 (lost)


(-460.5)


19/08/2011

York - Day 3

Can't say I approach the third day of the Ebor meeting with any sort of confidence. That's partly to do with me being on a bit of a losing streak and also the fact that the horse I've punted ante-post for the Nunthorpe today, Bated Breath, won't really be suited to the rain softened ground we have on the Knavesmire at the moment. I'd be very confident if conditions were on the fast side today and I just hope the drop down to five furlongs negates ground concerns. It's not a very good field so fingers crossed.

Bated Breath £40w @ 9/1 (lost)


(-370.5)

16/08/2011

York - Day 1

Initially I looked at the opening day of the Ebor meeting with a view to taking on Await The Dawn in the Juddmonte with Midday. But with the ground looking on the slow side now I've decided to let that go. Instead the bet of the day is Namibian in the Voltigeur. This horse won over two miles at the Royal Meeting, a staying performance that kind of put me off backing him in the Gordon Stakes next time out at Goodwood. He won well there however, and carried a penalty to boot. I think this long straight and the underfoot conditions the meeting starts off with will really suit him. The favourite, Seville, has been beaten on this track when a short priced favourite before and he really is an animal that needs to be taken on when his odds look cramped. I think Namibian will certainly out battle him. Other dangers? With this sort of race you have horses who could step up on previous form with the step up in trip - but Sea Moon strikes me as your typical Stoute horse whose price (he is actually shorter in the market than my selection!!) is a reflection on his trainer and not the content of his form. Namibian is a confident selection.

Namibian £70w @ 47/10 (lost)


(-330.5)

14/08/2011

Prix Jacques le Marois

This Group 1 contest moves to a Monday this year and I whilst the legendary Goldikova will naturally be tough to beat, Cityscape (who was less than two lengths behind her in the Queen Anne Stakes the last time he ran) is available at a mouth watering 16/1. This is a horse who loves a bit of cut in the ground, something he will get tomorrow, and is just too big a price.

Cityscape £30ew @ 16/1 (lost)


(-260.5)

13/08/2011

Newbury - 13th Sept

I'm not having a terrible flat season by any means, but bets are down this year and I'm not sure why. Maybe as I'm getting older I just prefer the Jumps.

Anyway, the bigger bets are not gong in this year, I've had my share if winners - but the shorter priced ones are the horses that are scoring for me.

I like the look of Brown Panther in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes today at Newbury. He was most impressive in the King George V at Royal Ascot and the horse he beat into second that day, Census, is actually shorter in the market. That is because my selection was disappointing in the German Derby in his last race. That contest was run on heavy ground however - surely a good enough reason to dismiss the run. Brown Panther's pedigree suggests not only that this step up in trip will suit, but also that he still has bags of scope. Both his sire and maternal grandsire (Shirocco and Unfuwain) were high class older horses in their day. I respect Meeznah in this also, but this will be far harder than a fillies race at Goodwood. She rates the main danger.

The other Group 3 on the card is the Hungerford Stakes. This looks a two horse race between Excelebration and Dubawi Gold and I favour the latter because I think the bookmakers have underestimated him. He'd have been a nice winner of the Irish Guineas with a better ride from Richard Hughes, who got into all sorts of trouble with him, and I think his poor run behind Frankel at the Royal Meeting must be forgiven. That was his fifth race of the year and the tactics used that day were all wrong. He's a hold up horse but was chased along trying to keep tags on the winner - a suicide mission. Excelebration was given far more patient tactics in the same race and although he ran well to get third the race was run to suit him. I think overall  the Hannon horse has the better form and the prices the two currently are (7/4 and 7/2) are wrong. He's had a two month break and I expect him to win today.
.
Brown Panther £60w @ 54/10 (lost)

Dubawi Gold £60w @ 37/10 (lost)


(-200.5)

02/08/2011

Ante-Post Update

Hoof It's impressive win in the Stewards Cup last Saturday has certainly shaken up the market for the Nunthorpe at the Ebor meeting. Not surprisingly having backed him in the July Cup I am rather keen on Bated Breath for this race. He actually fought for his head in the early stages at Newmarket and looks like an animal who will relish a drop down to 5f. I would also add that his run that day would have been good enough to win a lot of renewals in the recent past. I think 8/1 is a cracking price. Hoof It is a danger but is awfully short at 9/2 considering he has yet to run at this level. I'm not a fan of the other sprinters likely to take part and think last year's winner, Sole Power, won a particularly bad renewal. I just hope the price I've taken isn't a reflection on any doubt about Bated Breath's participation. There are a couple of other sprints at 6f that he could take part in, but both these - at Deauville and Haydock - are at venues that are prone to soft ground at this time of year - underfoot conditions that don't suit my selection.

In my last AP update I mentioned that I had backed Fox Hunt for the Ebor but since then I have laid my stake back after seeing him entered in the Goodwood Cup.


Nunthorpe:
Bated Breath £30w @ 8/1

Arc:
St Nicholas Abbey £20w @ 18/1
Sarafina £20w @ 10/1


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Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £20w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £20w @ 16/1