30/06/2011

Eclipse

This is a race to savour as hyped up So You Think takes on Workforce. The latter I've backed at 2/1. He's that big because the stable is out of form and the distance is a bit short of his best. But if you look at the history of this race it is stuffed full of top class 12f winning it. I think the main thing though is See You Think is odds-on despite not having scored at the top level in Europe yet. He therefore has to be opposed in my book.

Workforce £60w @ 2/1 (lost)


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26/06/2011

Irish Derby

I've thought long and hard about this race and whether or not Seville is worth a bet or not. I backed him at Epsom where he was most disappointing, but there are some reasons for optimism today. His form when second in the Dante was given a boost when the third won at Royal Ascot and it has to be said our Derby was run at a slow space - something totally against Seville, who has a very stamina laden pedigree. Being held up at the rear was also against him. As for the opposition today, I think Carlton House could be a doubtful stayer over theis stiffer track, especially with give in the ground. And Treasure Beach was flattered at Epsom by racing up with that slow gallop. I can't be too confident about my selection given how poorly he did run there so I haven't gone mad stake wise.

Seville £40w @ 72/10 (lost)


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22/06/2011

Ante-Post Update/Ascot Post-Script

I enjoyed the Royal Meeting. I came out of it slightly in front and there were a number of horse that went in the note book.

First was Census. This animal ran on well to finish second in the King George V Handicap over a mile and a half. The winner is a Group class horse who is a leading contender for the St Leger. The runner-up only took second towards the end of the race but still put a length between himself and the third home. I backed Chain Lightning in the Hunt Cup and a return to 10f will suit him - he was just beaten here by specialist milers. I'll back him if he lines up for the St John Smith's at York in a week or so.
Striking Spirit was third from a terrible draw in a 7f Handicap. He's a horse who only recently moved to the Tim Easterby yard and prior to his run here was being campaigned mainly over 5 and 6f. I'll be looking out for him in similar races or even over an easy mile.
Lastly we have Fox Hunt. This Mark Johnston trained horse won the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap over 12f really nicely and had to overcome a wide draw in doing so. He'll be quite highly weighted if he stays in Handicaps but his excellent trainer has a great record at Goodwood, a course that favours top weights and I'm hoping he'll find a race for him there.

Not much action Ante-Post at the moment. I have backed Bated Breath for the July Cup though. He was unsuited by the rain softened ground in the Golden Jubilee last Saturday and holds the winner of that race on form earlier in the year on better ground. It makes little sense therefore that Society Rock is shorter in the betting for the Newmarket race. Roger Carlton's horse looks a potential high class sprinter to me and I expect a big run from him given decent underfoot conditions.

July Cup:
Bated Breath £20w @ 14/1

Arc:
St Nicholas Abbey £15w @ 16/1


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Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £20w @ 12/1

18/06/2011

Royal Ascot - Friday

Interesting day ahead but the punting looks hard. In the Hardwicke I think Await the Dawn is way too short but it's hard finding one to take him on. I might have small each ways on Calvados Blues and Passion for Gold but the O'Brien colt could be something special. Haven't made my mind up yet.

I try not to get involved in Group race sprints but I do like the Wokingham as a betting race and after a study this morning narrowed it down to Fathsta, Mac's Power and Pastoral Player. The latter two I've left alone because of the soft ground but Fathsta is worth an each punt at around 20/1. He won a soft ground 6f handicap at York last year very nicely off 94 and runs off only 98 today having gone down 5lbs since that win on the Knavesmire but it seems to me that the races he's been running in weren't really that suitable. These were listed contests, conditions race and handicaps over either too far (7f here at Ascot) or too short (6f at Goodwood on fast). I'm not sure about his low draw but with most bookies paying five places I'm confident of some sort of collection.

Fathsta £20ew @ 20/1 (lost)


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16/06/2011

Royal Ascot - Thursday

Onto ladies day. I started the week wanting to get Fame & Glory beat in the Gold Cup despite the fact that I've backed him several times in the past. I wasn't sure he'd stay and he was far from impressive in his two runs thus far this season. But after being reminded how stout his pedigree actually is - by Galileo out of a Shirley Heights mare - I think I've worked out a plan. If he doesn't win today chances are it will be through lack of stamina in the final throes of the race. Bearing in mind how sweetly he travels I have backed him at 5/2 for £120 and have put in an In-Running keep lay (meaning the bet request is valid during the race) at 6/4 for £40 of that stake. I don't think the trainer has had him anywhere near 100% ready so far this year and I expect him to be spot on today. The only evidence I have for that assumption is the way Yeats was campaigned.

Now the rain has come I've had a close look at the Britannia with a view to finding one or two who have soft ground form and look progressive. Chain Lightning from the Hannon stable won a maiden on soft ground as a 2yo at Salisbury and in his only contest this year so far was triumphant in his first handicap over 10f at Sandown. He won that race by a length and a quarter after leading just over 2 out. The fact that he held on despite leading for so long is an indication he is still in front of the handicapper. Now, the fact that this race today is over a shorter trip is a slight worry - as is the fact that it's a race limited to 3yos. But Ascot is a stamina sapping course with an uphill finish so animals who stay further should be OK at shorter trips today. The unexposed nature of most of my fancies rivals means a portion of my stake is each way with the five place concession.

Fame & Glory £120w @ 5/2 (won)

IR keep lay placed @ 6/4 for £40 (matched)

Chain Lightning £20w and £20ew @ 12/1 (lost)


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14/06/2011

Royal Ascot - Wednesday

Fantastic Racing today, and it was nice to chill and watch it with no money on the line. The Queen Anne went the way I expected really but I was impressed with Cityscape in third. He is trained by Roger Charlton, one of my favourite handlers on the flat. He runs Bated Breath in the Golden Jubilee on Saturday, and it's nice to see him in form.
Frankel was impressive considering he was asked to go flat out way too soon and is still a horse I would not oppose.

Anyway, onto Wednesday's action. In the Windsor Forest stakes for fillies over a mile I think Music Show is worth a bet at around 9/1. She has the best overall form of these having won the Matron at Leopardstown last year and only getting beat three lengths by the great Goldikova at Deauville. This season she took the boys on first time out at Sandown where she was beaten by Dick Turpin and the aforementioned Cityscape, no disgrace in that. She then found 10f at York too far for her last month. The two market leaders, Seta and Sajjhaa have always been talking horses - both were favourites for the Guineas and Oaks respectively last year at one point - and are always underpriced. The latter in particular has a middle distance pedigree and I can't see her being at her best over a mile. It's a race with a good betting shape to it because of this. I'm a Dreamer looks the only danger in my book and is worth a cover bet. She was impressive over 9f last time out, although the race was run at a fast pace and being held up this played into her hands a bit.

In the Hunt Cup I have already discussed my reasons for backing Eton Forever in earlier entries. Not brilliantly drawn in stall 15 his price had held up until the favourite was pulled out an hour or so ago. I've topped up and because of the draw issue and the enhanced (five places) place terms have had some of my stake each way.

Music Show £50w @ 9/1 (lost)
I'm a Dreamer £40w @ 5/1 (lost)

Eton Forever £30w @ 17/1 £15ew @ 14/1 (5th)


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13/06/2011

Royal Ascot - Tues

Tuesday's card at the Royal Meeting is most exciting with Frankel, Canford Cliffs and Goldikova all taking part. It's a great start to the meeting from a sporting point of view although I don't see any bets to be had. I did think at one point that the rain they had on Sunday might make a difference but it's a very quick draining track and I do remember laying back most of the bet I had on George Washington a few years ago in the QEII when it rained on the day only for that fast ground animal to sluice up.

Tomorrow then is a couple of hours of prime racing action to relish. I do have a couple of bets on the Wednesday however. I've already backed Eton Forever in the Hunt Cup and today I added Music Show in the Windsor Forest. She's a cracking price and I will post my thoughts on the second day's action tomorrow evening.

10/06/2011

York - 11th June

A couple of days ago I posted this:

"I had a horse in mind for the Wokingham as well, an animal called Acclamazing. But he's only a 3yo and I don't think he'll get in the race. I'll be keeping my eye on him when he runs again - as long as it's over 6f."

Well, I didn't have to wait long as Acclamazing runs in the 3.15 at the Knavesmire tomorrow. He won a Newmarket Handicap very nicely by almost three lengths in April having gone into the lead inside the final furlong - one of the things I look for in handicappers to follow. He actually ran well in defeat over further at Ascot in his next race, a contest where he ran into trouble. That concerned me slightly when I saw he was drawn in stall number two tomorrow as he's a hold up horse but the stalls are in the centre of the course. I have to be honest, when it comes to handicaps I have horses in mind to follow and when they run I back them - I don't pay much mind to the opposition. This is because the handicaps I get involved in are usually competitive affairs and I'm backing at (usually) 8/1 plus and ultimately my punting history suggests this is an area I do well in.

Acclamazing £60w @ 8/1 (lost)


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08/06/2011

Royal Ascot Thoughts

I'm very much looking forward to the Royal meeting that begins next week. From a sporting point of view it looks at this stage as the best Festival in year's with Frankel, Canford Cliffs and So You Think all scheduled to appear. From a betting point of view I like to look at the two big handicaps before concentrating on the weight for age contests. In many way this makes it the polar opposite of the way I approach Cheltenham.

Anyway, in the Hunt Cup on Wednesday I'm looking for animals who have won over a mile and ideally have proven themselves to be fast finishers - i'e have taken the lead in a race in the last furlong or so and won by a length or more. The Roger Varian trained Eton Forever did this in a race at Doncaster in April. Actually he took the lead more than a furlong out and won by over three lengths which isn't strictly ideal as he went up eleven pounds for this success. If the jockey had held onto him for longer and won by a length and a half say he wouldn't have gone up quite so much. So Eton Forever's handicap mark of 103 isn't brilliant but the form of that Doncaster race has worked out really well. Also, he ran in a listed race over course and distance later on in April and although he didn't run that well I'm not too bothered as it wasn't a handicap - I also like it when a horse I have an eye runs in an irrelevent race (a non handicap, or a handicap over a different trip) before the contest I have it mind to back him in as I think it keeps the price nice.


I had a horse in mind for the Wokingham as well, an animal called Acclamazing. But he's only a 3yo and I don't think he'll get in the race. I'll be keeping my eye on him when he runs again - as long as it's over 6f.

As mouth watering as the group races are nothing stands out from a punting point of view - although Planteur may be underestimated in the Prince of Wales as the hype on So You Think gathers momentum. The French horse may be better suited to the short straight at Ascot. I may be tempted at around 4/1.

Hunt Cup:
Eton Forever £20w @ 18/1

03/06/2011

The Derby

Pretty upset Wonder of Wonders didn't win today. I felt I got the race just about right but couldn't account for the winner, who seemed to have little to recommend her. Never mind.

Anyway, onto the Derby. I've collected on the race already with Frankel not being declared and I feel the race has an open shape to it with the favourite being a very false price due to his connections. I also can't have Recital. He's second in the market at present but he's very inexperienced and looked a bit of a dodgy character in his last race. Not an ideal type for Epsom. So, I've added Native Khan to my ante-post bets on Pour Moi and Seville. I've already noted my reasons for backing those two but the Guineas third has a lot going for him as well. The Newmarket form was franked with Dubawi Gold only failing to win the Irish equivalent through bad jockeyship. He's bred to stay 12f and wasn't far behind Seville in the RP Trophy last Autumn. With the front two trading at such poor odds it's only natural that others further down the list will be more attractively priced and for that reason I have no problem going into the race with three arrows so to speak.

Frankel Laid @ 42/10 for £65 (NR)
Seville £40w @ 95/10 (lost)
Pour Moi £40w @ 57/10 (won)
Native Khan £40w @ 12/1 (lost)




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01/06/2011

Oaks

I've already posted my thoughts on this race having backed Wonder of Wonders immediately after her victory in the Cheshire Oaks last month. She looks a progressive filly who will stay and she also has a pedigree to die for. At Chester the horse that was eventually second got first run on her but the winner soon got in the clear once she got into top gear in the straight and I feel she is better than the bare result suggest. Amongst her opponents I have to respect the claims of the favourite, the One Thousand Guineas winner Blue Bunting, a filly who is bred to improve for the step up in trip. However I thought that race was a strange affair this year with the powerful head wind making it a tough ask to stay the mile unless you were bred to stay a bit further. That said this isn't a bet where my main motivation is opposing the market leader - I was just really taken with my selection in her trial and think she's got a really good chance of being a special filly. I took 8/1 initially and have topped up a few times since.

Wonder of Wonders £80w @ 54/10 (lost)


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