Guineas Post-Script

Wow, Frankel was incredibly impressive there. Never seen a horse burn them off like that on the Rowley Mile before. Unreal. Post-race we went into silly prices for the Derby though and I laid him for a chunk. I think it's doubtful he'll eve run.

Derby:
Frankel Laid @ 42/10 for £65 - liability £272
Seville £20w @ 10/1

2000 Guineas

Up until this morning I was going to sit this race out with just the small loss on a non-runner. I think Frankel will be hellishly hard to beat but the main danger, Pathfork, has taken a walk from 13/2 to not far off 9/1 on Betfair and that is too tempting to pass up. Betting is all about the prices and that just looks a little bit too big. This unbeaten colt has only raced on ground with give in it so far in Ireland and his pedigree suggests the faster conditions underfoot today will suit him more than they will the favourite. The recent history of the race has examples of horses with excellent claims - Celtic Swing and Dubawi - who came unstuck because they didn't handle the firm ground as well as some of their rivals. In fact only Zafonic and George Washington have won the race from the top of the market since the start of the 90s, but both those animals were confirmed fast ground performers, something Frankel is not. So on that basis Pathfork is worth an interest.

Wootton Bassett £15 (NR)
Pathfork £45w @ 86/10 (lost)


(-60)

Classic Thoughts

Just a couple of weeks until the Flat really kicks into gear with the first two Classics of the season. Unfortunately Wootton Bassett is now a non-runner but to be honest I was impressed with Frankel in the Greenham last Saturday and I doubt I'd have been collecting in any event.

In the 1000 no realistic challengers to Moonlight Cloud emerged from the Nell Gwyn or Fred Darling Trials and her price has remained decent so I have stepped in again. I'd make her a 7/2 shot now if I made a book on the race.

Going back to Frankel, he is at the front of the Derby market as well as the 2000 and here he is very much one to take on. Although he's by Galileo he doesn't look like a middle distance horse and even if he somehow manages to stay I don't think his big muscular physique will be at home on the gradients and cambers of Epsom. The horse I like for the Derby is Seville, an animal whose pedigree suggests he won't come into his own until tried over 12f. That being the case his form as a 2yo (second in the RP Trophy on good ground) is very encouraging. That form entitles him to be pushing for favouritism in my opinion and yet we have your typical over-hyped Stoute and Cecil animals - namely World Domination and Carlton House - ahead of him in the betting. The latter is owned by the Queen, enough for at least a three point reduction in his odds in a Royal Wedding year. Anyway, what tempers enthusiasm slightly is the fact that I've done my stones on Aiden O'Brien horses in the race the last two years. Fame and Glory was a very large bet that went south due to the magnificence of Sea the Stars and St Nicholas Abbey last year didn't even make the race. I lost almost £400 combined on those two horses so I'm keeping my stake low until Seville has run and been confirmed a runner.

2000 Guineas:
Wootton Bassett £15w (NR)


1000 Guineas:
Moonlight Cloud £60w @ 10/1

Derby:
Seville £20w @ 10/1

Guineas Ante-Post

Good and not so good news on the Guineas front. Wootton Bassett, my 2000 selection, is only 50/50 to make the race now having worked poorly earlier in the week. But Moonlight Cloud, who I backed for the 1000 at 20/1 before her trial run, was most impressive at Maisons-Laffitte and is now favourite with some forms for the fillies classic. I have topped up since.

2000 Guineas:
Wootton Bassett £15w @ 16/1

1000 Guineas:
Moonlight Cloud £25w @ 13/1

Grand National

The Aintree marathon is always my final betting race of the Jumps season and I usually go in mob handed but with reduced stakes on my individual selections. I've already backed three this year and with the ground quickening up I've taken 14s about Gold Cup fourth What a Friend. He was a tad flattered at Cheltenham but overall he is very fairly treated and the track as well as the likely going will suit him. Of my other bets I'm in a good position with The Midnight Club who I have 20s about but the lack of rain is against Silver by Nature and Tidal Bay. But whatever happens tomorrow I've had a fantastic NH season and it's been a real pleasure writing this blog.

The Midnight Club £10ew @ 20/1 (lost)
Silver By Nature £20w @ 18/1 (lost)
Tidal Bay £5w @ 47/1 and £15pl @ 9/1 (UR)
What a Friend £20w @ 14/1 (PU)


(+1819.86)

Aintree - Day 2

Just the one bet today as well. The Melling Chase is an ultra competitive event and I looked at Somersby closely but he ran below par at this meeting after a run at the Festival last year and this stops me punting him. As laudable a horse as the favourite Albertas Run is I think this will be tough for him as the field looks a lot stronger than the last two Ryanair's he's won or this race last year. Master Minded, Tranquil Sea and the aforementioned Somersby will be tough nuts to crack and I think at least one of them will find him out.

Albertas Run laid @ 32/10 for £40 (Liability £128) (lost)


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Aintree - Day 1

I'm posting this entry on Fri 8th April. My computer was down yesterday and I attempted to post via my Mobile. Something went wrong as nothing has appeared. Stupid phone. Only had the one bet and it was probably my worst of the entire season. Pure sentiment.

Denman £70w @ 11/8 (lost)


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Guineas/National Ante-Post

Since my last entry I have backed Silver By Nature as well as The Midnight Club for the Grand National. He ran well at Haydock last time out and looks the ideal type for Aintree. Just hoping we have a wet week as he is a horse who likes soft ground. I normally back three or four in the big race.
EDIT: Added Tidal Bay at big odds. He likes the track and is the type to go very well if the fences wake him up a bit. Great place claims.

Having backed Wootton Bassett for the 2000 Guineas I think it would be remiss of me to ignore the claims of the Freddie Head trained Moonlight Cloud for the fillies equivalent. She was a little over three lengths behind WB in the Lagardere at Longchamp back in October and the fact that her trainer (who is excellent with fillies of course) is aiming her at Newmarket suggests that she will act on the likely fast ground. She makes plenty of appeal at 20/1 in a wide open looking contest. She will take in the Prix Imprudence en route to the 1000.

Grand National:
The Midnight Club £10ew @ 20/1
Silver By Nature £10w @ 18/1
Tidal Bay £5w @ 47/1 £10pl @ 17/2

2000 Guineas:
Wootton Bassett £15w @ 16/1

1000 Guineas:
Midnight Cloud £10w @ 20/1