23/06/2010

Ante-Post Update

My computer has been down the last few days so have been unable to post. I have had a bet on the John Smiths Cup at York on 10th July. Forte Dei Marmi is a Luca Cumani trained animal who went into my notebook when he won the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar at the end of last month. I expected him to run in a race at Royal Ascot but he wasn't declared. I suspected the trainer may be keeping him for this race, a very valuable handicap over an extended 10f and so took some of the 14/1 on Betfair when the odds came out on Sunday. Betfair are the only firm offering odds on this race at the moment.

John Smiths Cup
Forte Dei Marmi £10w @ 11/1


Arc
Fame & Glory £10w @ 16/1

19/06/2010

Royal Ascot - Saturday

No bet yesterday but I have a selection today. I like Genki in the Wokingham, a horse who has shown in the past that he is capable of winning one of these cavalry charges. He was mighty impressive when winning the Stewards Cup last year. He won that race by over a length despite only taking the lead well into the last fueling - a sign that a 7lb higher handicap mark will not stop him today. I expected him to be around 6/1 today so the 9s I got is a nice bonus.

Genki 40w @ 89/10 (lost)

(-56.6)

16/06/2010

Royal Ascot - Thursday


On to the main race on thurday, the Gold Cup. I strongly fancy Ask for this for reasons I mentioned when I backed him ante-post. He's a genuine high class performer who loves the track and on pedigree should stay the trip. I've topped up as well since my initial bet at 7/1. I see Manifest as the only danger with Aidan O'Brien's stable in a funk and have covered my stake with a bet on him.

The other race of interest today is the Ribblesdale Stakes for 3yo fillies. Looks quite competitive but most of the animals at the top of the market make little appeal. The favourite, Principal Role is opposable on form because the horse that was third beaten 4L in her run at Newbury has been beaten a total of 60 odd lengths in her other two starts and looks like she hasn't trained on to me. I think the Oaks form is awful so that rules out Gertrude Bell (this is a bad race for Oaks fillies anyway) and Hannon has a filly who he's run in Italy a couple of times. Not good enough. That leaves Hibaayeb who ran really well in the Prix Saint-Alary behind the subsequent French Oaks winner. I would make her the favourite for this

Ask £80w @ 59/10 (lost)
Manifest £20w @ 4/1 (lost)

Hibaayeb £40w @ 56/10 (won)


(-16.6)

15/06/2010

Royal Ascot - Wednesday

Just the one bet today which I have already discussed the other day, Cavalryman in the Prince of Wales Stakes at 3.50 is worth a bet at a too big looking 12/1

Cavalryman £20ew @ 12/1 (lost)

(-129.4)

Royal Ascot - Tuesday

My bets for the first day of the Royal meeting have already been detailed. I took a chance on Goldikova when she was trading at 7/2 for this before she had her first run and just after Paco Boy won the Lockinge. I have topped up a number of times since then and have also covered with Rip Van Winkle.
In the St James Palace I took 3/1 on 2000 Guineas winner Makfi because it was simply too big compared with Canford Cliffs price.

Goldikova £60w @ 5/2 (won)
Rip Van Winkle £25w @ 3/1 (lost)

Makfi £20w @ 3/1 (lost)

(-89.4)

14/06/2010

Eve of the Royal Meeting

The action starts tomorrow and at present my bets are listed below. Since my last entry I have topped up again on Goldikova. I have also backed Calvaryman for the Prince of Wales because his price is too long. On the face of it he ran a shade disappointingly in the Coronation Cup but he did not like the camber in the straight at Epsom and he should be 7/1 for this not 12s.

Queen Anne:
Goldikova £60w @ 5/1
Rip Van Winkle £25w @ 28/10

St James's Palace:
Makfi £20w @ 3/1

Prince of Wales:
Calvaryman £20ew @ 12/1

Gold Cup
Ask £40w @ 7/1


11/06/2010

Royal Ascot - Gold Cup

This isn't a race I normally get involved with but it has a good shape to it this year from a betting point of view. At present Manifest heads the market at around 7/2 and I think he is worth taking on despite his impressive run last time out at York. That run in the Yorkshire Cup followed up Ask's win in the same race last year and Sir Michael Stoute's animal was just as taking in winning that renewal and yet is available at 7/1 for Thursday's main event. That is just wrong as he loves Ascot, has a touch of class given he was third in the King George last year and should stay given his pedigree.

So, Ask is added to my portfolio for Ascot which is listed below.

Queen Anne:
Goldikova £45w @ 11/4
Rip Van Winkle £25w @ 28/10

St James's Palace:
Makfi £20w @ 3/1

Gold Cup
Ask £40w @ 7/1

09/06/2010

Early Royal Ascot Thoughts

I'm already involved ante-post in the Queen Anne, a race I liked for Goldikova as soon as the prices came out on Betfair. The St James's Palace Stakes is also looking like a high class renewal at this stage and the 2000 Guineas winner Makfi is trading at very nice odds for this. I managed to get £20 matched at 3/1 on Betfair earlier today and his price has moved downwards since then. Canford Cliffs will be a tough nut to crack but the difference in their odds (6/1 - 5/2 now) is too much.
My Goldikova and Rip Van Winkle positions have been topped up and Paco Boy is actually nearly 4/1 for this after being around 9/4 when the prices came out. Reality setting in methinks.

Queen Anne:
Goldikova £45w @ 11/4
Rip Van Winkle £20w @ 28/10

St James's Palace:
Makfi £20w @ 3/1

04/06/2010

Derby

Well, it's going to be an uphill battle to show a profit from this race given the position I had on St Nicholas Abbey but i'm giving it my best shot. When the drift on SNA began I took kept topping up but also took some 7/2 on Jan Vermeer for £60 just in case. Once the dust settled and the market was re-formed I laid £20 back at 9/4 and now I've decided to fire another couple of bullets in the hope that I can at least get some money back. I like the Godolphin horse, Rewilding, as he looks an athletic type with a really good 12f pedigree and the fact that Fabre had him for awhile and has positive comments about him is also a plus sign. To be honest I don't like the likes of Bullet Train, Midas Touch and Workforce and feel their really cramped odds make the race interesting from a punting point of view. As well as JV and Rewilding I can't resist a place bet on Coordinated Cut, an animal with close form ties to Workforce and Bullet Train who is almost four times their price. Daft.

St Nicholas Abbey £115w @ 5/1 NR
Coordinated Cut £20pl @ 46/10 Lost
Rewilding £20w @ 7/1 Lost
Jan Vermeer £40w @ 39/10 Lost

(-188)

01/06/2010

Ante Post Update

Whilst things went pair shaped in the Derby my ante-post positions on Goldikova in the Queen Anne and Fame & Glory in the Arc both look rosy after recent victories for both of them. I have since topped up my slightly on the former. I'll be posting ante-post updates on a regular basis througout my blog from now on and always listing where i'm at with my positions. As well as Goldikova I have decided to cover with my old friend Rip Van Winkle at Ascot as I think Paco Boy is a very false price.

Queen Anne - Goldikova £25w @ 100/30 and Rip Van Winkle £15w @ 28/10s

Arc £10w @ 16/1

Oaks

Bad news coming through today about St Nicholas Abbey not running in the Derby. I did a bit of wheeling and dealing with his price but have still ended up with the thick end of a £100 loss on the horse.

But before that goes in the ledger we have the second fillies classic to look forward to on Friday and I think I have a nice bet to hopefully keep me well in profit before the hammer falls on Saturday.

Rumoush was quite fancied for the 1000 Guineas after her win in a listed race over 9f at the Craven meeting. But I personally did not see her as a danger to my selection in that race as her pedigree suggested stepping up in trip rather than down was her best chance for a big win. Her female line is absoltely choc full of stamina. Her dam is a half sister Unfawain and Nashwan amongst others and I think she will relish 12f. She actually ran quite well from the wrong side of the track at Newmarket and the horse who beat her on that side was placed at the Curragh in the Irish 1000 despite not really running to her best on the fast ground (one of the fillies well behind her at Newmarket was a lot closer that day). The usual trials for the Oaks have failed to throw up anything inspiring and Rumoush's main market rivals are two Cecil filles (one of whom she has already beat). At 6/1 I think she's a solid enough bet.


Rumoush £40win @ 6/1 Lost

(+7)