Irish 2000G

Gonna go with Recharge in this. Nice run to best Intense Focus in their trial
I think the Oxx colt is being overbet because of the ground. Can`t have Delegator as I don`t think he`ll stay round this stiff track. I`m not going out to opposing Mastercrafsman lightly although i`m not sure he`ll be totally suited by the heavy ground either. I think he won the National Stakes last year despite rather than because of the underfoot conditions. Recharge`s dam loved deep ground so that`s not putting me off. The stable form does however so i`m going each way.

Recharge £15w @ 15/1 £15pl @ 24/10

Rainbow View

The more I think about this filly the more I fancy her for the Oaks on June 5th. If we ignore the hype that surrounded her run in the 1000 Guineas she ran a fine trial for this. One of the reasons I was against her in the 1000 was because of the way her trainer handled Raven`s Pass last year. He improved throughout the year and I expect the same thing to happen with Rainbow View. The make-up of the Oaks reminds me of Balanchine`s year where she was third favourite behind a couple of trial winners. Classic form is the way to go in the Oaks and i`ve taken an initial position of £40 at a little over 5/1 on Betfair. Assuming the ground comes right i`ll be topping up the closer we get to the race.

Derby Thoughts

I went into the winter with a little bit of 9/1 about Crowded House for the Derby. He re-appears on Thursday in the Dante and has been diposed by two horses as market leader for the big race. First off Sea the Stars laid his claim in emphatic terms with his victory in the 2000 Guineas and whilst he may indeed stay the 12f at Epsom I don`t think the extra distance will bring much improvement out of him. He`s really short in the betting for me and well worth taking on. As a Bolger fan I took some 10s on Gan Amhras after his splendid 2000 Guineas run. His pedigree screams a mile and a half and under normal circumstances i`d be really flying into this one. However, Fame and Glory`s presence is a major fly in the ointment. I was impressed with his Ballysax win and was surprised that a lot of talk in the build up to the Derrinstown was of Mourayan actually reversing earlier form. Anyway, I had a pony on the O`Brien colt at 7/1 on saturday evening on anticipation of his price shortening the following day. Sure enough F&G was most impressive and now must rate the most likely winner of the Derby. From my point of view I have nice prices on the new favourite and Crowded House but was a little hasty with Bolger's charge. I will be sitting tight until after the Dante when I will think about where I want to be with the race.

French Guineas

I like Naaqoos in the Poulains tomorrow. His task in the Prix Djebel looked straightforward and whilst he was disappointing the word is that his trainer left a bit to work on and probably thought he could win his trial without being near his best.
A very attractive 2yo who looked to have bags of scope, I can`t believe he hasn`t trained on and at 5/1 I make him a decent bet. Of the opposition, Vocalised looks a bit exposed and hasn`t any form at a mile yet despite the fact that he`s had a few runs already this season. Westphalia was half a stone behind Naaqoos on 2yo ratings and AOB rarely sends his best horses to Paris for their Guineas.

Naaqoos - £60win @ 5/1

Guineas Aftermath

Looked a decent quality renewal of the 2000. Lost £200 on the race overall but plenty of clues to future races were evident and hopefully the race will pay it`s way in good time. The winner is now quite a short price for the Derby and whilst I respect his chances i`ll be looking elsewhere for the winner. Gan Amhras is the horse i`ll be taking out of the race - his pedigree screams 12f and he`ll be my Derby selection (along with Crowded House who I backed over the winter).

Rainbow View didn`t like the ground apparently in the 1000. She`ll be interesting if turning up for the Oaks.